1 April 2006

This chart says long bond yields are heading higher

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "The bear case has recently received strong support from bond price developments. The chart is a technically alarming one for bond bulls (I have deliberately chosen a long term chart with quarterly data to eliminate short term noise). Firstly, the long term trend - as shown by the two year moving average - is strongly upwards. Secondly, yields have decisively broken up through very strong resistance between 4.40% and 4.60%. Thirdly, yields have also broken through the twelve-year downtrend obtained by joining the peak levels attained in 1994 and 1999. My reading of this chart is that US ten year bond yields are likely to move up to test the next major resistance at around 5.40% to 5.60%, as represented by the peaks in 2001 and the low of 1995. I stress this is a medium term expectation rather than a short term one."

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