11 April 2006

Gold & Silver Stocks

Gold & Silver Stocks - The Monthly Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Finally Peaked: "NEM, HUI, and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle finally appears to have begun on Thursday 4-6 (see 1 year charts). NEM, HUI, and the XAU hit 2% follow through Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signals on Tuesday 3-14 (see HUI 1 year chart dated 3-17), which indicates that the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle and a monthly upcycle began on Friday 3-10-06. HUI is probably headed for 400-450+ in Wave 5.

'Trade the Cycles' Near Term Synopsis - HUI and the XAU appear to have finally completed a big Wave 3 short term upcycle on Thursday 4-6 (see latest 1 year charts), and, NEM's Wave 3 short term upcycle also probably peaked on Thursday 4-6 after some downside gap filling action. The XAU had what appears to be a large breakaway gap on Friday 4-7 (gapping down, so it's an upside gap because it's above the XAU's current level) that probably won't get filled this week, and, the Wave 4 short term downcycle is likely to bring a substantial decline. The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (see bullet just before the charts) is short term bearish because the gold Commercial Traders traded substantially net short and the gold Speculators traded substantially net long. A big difference last week was the aggressive short selling by the gold Commercial Traders (shorted 20,657 futures and options contracts) versus the relatively modest short selling the week before (shorted 1716 futures and options contracts the prior week). The bearish NEM Lead Indicator last week at -1.02% vs the XAU also points to weakness this week. NEM's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 bottomed at 46.60 on 3-10 versus the Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, the XAU's Wave 4 bottomed a"

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