Quinn is a great writer and analyst.. from
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0802.html
"The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness.
Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied
with the extent of conquest; and as soon as time or accident had removed
the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to
the pressure of its own weight."
Edward Gibbon – The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire
After ruling much of the known world for centuries, Rome fell due to a number of factors that, historians believe, would not have been fatal in isolation, but that proved terminal in combination. Military overspending and overreach, an untenable economic system, and currency debasement all played a role. As has been well documented, the Roman emperors attempted to distract the populace from the increasingly dire reality of their situation by providing bread and circuses. But entertainments could not stop the nation-state from yielding to the pressure of its own weight.
There are numerous parallels between the end of the Roman Empire and the path the 226-year-old American republic is now on. One difference in these fast-moving times is that empires can rise more rapidly, but are also likely to decline more rapidly.
Conquest & Overreach
“The decay of trade and industry was not a cause of Rome’s fall. There was a decline in agriculture and land was withdrawn from cultivation, in some cases on a very large scale, sometimes as a direct result of barbarian invasions. However, the chief cause of the agricultural decline was high taxation on the marginal land, driving it out of cultivation. Taxation was spurred by the huge military budget and was thus ‘indirectly’ the result of the barbarian invasion.” Arthur Ferrill – The Fall of the Roman Empire: The Military Explanation
The Roman Empire’s economy was based on the plunder of conquered territories. As the empire expanded, it installed remote military garrisons to maintain control and increasingly relied on Germanic mercenaries to man those garrisons.
Ultimately, as its territorial expansion waned and began to contract, less and less booty became available to support the empire’s widespread ambitions and domestic economy. The outsourcing of the military and the cultural dilution from the bloated empire led to lethargy, complacency, and decadence amongst the formerly self-reliant and hard-working Roman citizenry.
In the modern context, as the only major power whose productive capacity was not destroyed during World War II, the American Empire emerged from the ashes of that conflict.
The parallels with Rome do not repeat, but they do rhyme.
Rather than plunder, the U.S. used its unique status to dictate terms that made the U.S. dollar the world’s de facto reserve currency and positioned its robust new manufacturing sector to supply the world with the cars, machinery, appliances, and electronics it so desperately needed. The U.S. trade surplus with the nations of the world led to escalating U.S. wealth and prosperity.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military, about which I’ll have more to say in a moment, was increasingly asked by the nation’s politicians to take on the role of the world’s policeman, leading to action in dozens of conflicts. And even where no direct military role was taken, the U.S. has shown a keen willingness to exert coercive power – including threats, sanctions, and even assassinations – if it was seen to advance American interests.
Simply, in the 20th century, the U.S. became an empire in all but name.
Bread and Circuses
“Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.” Roman Poet Juvenal – 77 AD
British historian Andrew J. Toynbee convincingly argues that the Roman Empire had a rotten economic system from its inception and its institutions steadily decayed over time.
The government didn’t have proper budgetary systems, and so it squandered resources maintaining the empire while producing little of value. When the spoils from conquered territories were no longer sufficient to cover its many expenses, it turned to higher taxes, in effect shifting the burden of the immense military structure onto the back of the citizenry. The higher taxes forced many small farmers to let their land go barren. To distract its citizens from the worsening conditions, Roman politicians played the populist card by providing free wheat to the poor and entertaining them with circuses, chariot races, and other entertainments.
The American Empire has reached the point where it now faces similar structural imbalances, but to pay its bills, it has largely chosen to borrow from foreign countries in recent years. And the bills are large.
The $765 billion of annual military expenditures by the United States equals the military expenditures of the rest of the world combined.
The social safety net put in place over the decades by politicians attempting to get reelected has resulted in a large number of Americans now almost totally dependent upon the almighty state for their well-being. Threatening to rip apart the country’s social fabric, the “new American” will vote for anyone who promises to sustain his dependency even as the nation increasingly struggles under the weight of $56 trillion of unfunded liabilities.
The non-farm workforce in the United States totals 133 million people. Of that number, the government directly employs 22.5 million. Millions more are employed by industries heavily dependent on government spending, such as defense, construction, and healthcare. The annual maintenance cost of the country’s safety net now costs American taxpayers hundreds of billions.
Medicare and Medicaid annual spending $682 billion
Social Security annual spending $612 billion
Food stamps & other food programs $60 billion
Federal unemployment payments $45 billion
America has evolved from a nation of savers to a nation of consumers with a throw-away mentality and driven by little more than the desire for instant gratification. Worse, large segments of our society are convinced that they are owed something. To most, civic duty has become a quaint, outmoded concept. Happy to accommodate – in exchange for a reliable vote come election time – the government keeps the public satiated and sedated by providing them with an ever-increasing list of “public services.”
Roman poet Juvenal described how the Roman citizens abdicated their duties to the state and turned to bread and circuses. The programs listed above represent just some of the bread that American citizens now feel entitled to.
Here in America, we know how to provide circuses on a grand scale. Roman citizens were satisfied with a good chariot race. In these modern times, Americans can find entertainment and distraction with 24-hour-a-day cable TV, the Internet, iPhones, iPods, Blackberries, 1.1 million retail stores, 1,100 malls, 17,000 golf courses, Britney Spears, Kim Kardashian, Housewives of Orange County, New York, Atlanta, and New Jersey, American Idol, Survivor, Rock of Love, Flip That House, 660 stations with nothing on, Las Vegas, Disney World, MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, WWF, porn, and mega-churches all competing to fill the void in people’s lives.
There isn’t enough time in the day to take in all of the circuses, but with what little spare time we have available, we are now able to check our email anywhere on Earth and stay in constant contact with the office even in the middle of the night or, more typically these days, in the middle of dinner. And we can text and twitter our every thought to our circle of friends and followers, providing next to no lasting purpose or benefit to anyone.
Approximately 12% of the U.S. population (36 million people) is considered poor, and many of them are totally dependent upon the state. Yet that term seems out of sync with the fact that many of those individuals have cell phones ($500/yr.), cable TV ($900/yr.), Internet access ($500/yr.), cars ($5,000/yr. lease), houses ($6,000/yr.), eat fast food ($1,000/yr.), and can smoke a pack a day ($1,500/yr.).
How can this be?
For the answer, look no further than Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and the Federal Reserve, in cahoots with the financial geniuses on Wall Street, who made it standard practice to create money out of thin air and encourage anyone with a heartbeat to avail themselves of it in the form of low-cost loans – no proof of income or assets required.
The arrangement worked just fine until the banks could no longer hide the bad debt or sell it to the greater fool. Now it has collapsed onto the backs of American taxpayers.
Debasement
"The supply of foodstuffs in the cities declined. The people in the cities were forced to go back to the country and to return to agricultural life. Consequently, the emperors made laws against this movement. There were laws preventing the city dweller from moving to the country, but such laws were ineffective. As the people did not have anything to eat in the city, as they were starving, no law could keep them from leaving the city and going back into agriculture. The city dweller could no longer work in the processing indus tries of the cities as an artisan. And, with the loss of the markets in the cities, no one could buy anything there anymore." Ludwig von Mises – Human Action
Economist Ludwig von Mises argued that flawed economic policies played a key role in the impoverishment and decay of the Roman Empire. He contended that interventionist economic policies, including price controls that resulted in prices substantially below their free-market equilibrium levels, ultimately led to inflation.
Further, Rome was spending more than it could afford. The free food rations for the poor of Rome and Constantinople – as well as the many entertainments – were costing a fortune. The purchasing of exotic spices, silks, and other luxuries from the Orient bled Rome of its gold… gold that didn't return. Soon Rome didn't have enough gold to produce coins. And so it debased its coins with lesser metals until there was no gold left.
To cover the trillions it is spending each year propping up its empire, the U.S. government is now increasingly forced to rely on printing and borrowing the funds to do so, steadily debasing the currency in the process.
But the nation’s currency debasement is nothing new. Rather, it began in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve. It accelerated when FDR confiscated all the gold in the country in the 1930s. When Richard Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971, the show really got on the road, as that freed the Federal Reserve to print unlimited amounts of dollars. As a result, the dollar has lost 93% of its value versus gold since 1970.
The Military Complex
Lessons from ancient Rome regarding the cost of maintaining a far-flung empire have been ignored. Today, U.S. boots stomp on the ground of over 117 countries. Even the use of mercenaries, in the form of thousands of Blackwater guards and other private contractors filling roles formerly left to the military, has become commonplace.
Using military assets to pursue political goals, as is the norm in empire building, has led to unintended consequences and wasted opportunities.
One of the most egregious of those lost opportunities came following the bankruptcy and collapse of the Soviet Union. The United States had won the Cold War, but failed to recognize the cautionary signs on the path ahead.
As the only remaining superpower on earth, America fell into the same trap that has befallen previous empires. Instead of concentrating on proactively confronting domestic challenges, such as unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities, and developing a comprehensive energy plan to wean ourselves off Middle East oil, we continued to intervene in costly foreign adventures.
Including, among many others, supplying both Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein with weapons and money during their fights against our enemies, leading to unintended consequences we live with to this day.
Seeking to maintain its widespread interests and to defend itself from the many enemies created by building and protecting those interests, the American military complex has grown to the point where it now spends an amount equal to 44% of all taxes collected from its citizens.
Since 1991 alone, the U.S. has interceded in Kuwait, Somalia, Bosnia, Sudan, Afghanistan, and Iraq, among others. In no case has Congress fulfilled its obligation of declaring war. Instead, it has delegated sole responsibility for waging war to the president, weakening the structure of our three-branch government. Over that period of time, the U.S. has spent $7 trillion on defense.
The National Debt in 1991 was $3.2 trillion. Today, it is $11.6 trillion, a 360% increase in eighteen years. In 2001, spending on defense was 17% of the government budget. In 2008, defense, Homeland Security, and war spending accounted for 26% of government spending.
Collapse
Economic history books will likely mark 1980 as the year that the rapid phase of the decline of the American Empire began. That’s when the first wave of the Baby Boomer generation reached the age of 35 and turned its attention to living the American dream – on borrowed money. Since that year, household debt has surged from $1 trillion to $14 trillion, while the savings rate has plunged from 12% to below 0%.
There are many ways to use credit, some quite intelligent and practical. Rotating credit card debt to buy the latest non-necessity does not fall into that category. Today in America, there are $956 billion of credit card debt outstanding, or $9,000 per household. The average American has nine credit cards. A credit card allows every person to live above their means for awhile... just as did the home equity loans taken against artificially elevated house prices anchored on mortgages people couldn’t afford.
This is where reality and fantasy meet. People can only borrow and spend if the Federal Reserve and bankers provide the funds to do so, and without asking a lot of questions about suitability. By creating money out of thin air and handing it out to people with no legitimate means of repaying it, the financial elite and their friends in Washington have played an essential role in bringing the U.S. and even the global economy to its knees.
Yet, for all the evidence, a large swath of Americans still believes the nation hasn’t gone off course. These people consider borrowing in order to live beyond their means a rational choice. They expect the government to save them when they get into trouble and think that taxing the rich to pay for a bigger and bigger safety net is a reasonable idea.
In a truly free-market society, this sizable segment of the public would have already learned a brutal lesson they’d remember for the rest of their lives. Instead, the brutal lesson is being learned by people who played by the rules and didn’t take ridiculous risks, but who are now being coerced by the government to pay for the misdeeds of the over-indebted fools who did.
The crushing levels of debt resulting from decades of excess; the far-reaching military presence; the politically motivated social safety net and other popular but unaffordable programs have now reached the point that the economic decline of the American Empire is a foregone conclusion.
The current downturn is not going to be like previous recessions that lasted on average 16 months. Even as the government responds by trying to borrow and spend the country back to prosperity, there is no ignoring that the economic base has been gutted and the future social program liabilities have essentially bankrupted the country.
As was the case in the final stages of the Roman Empire, the unsustainable military, social, and political excesses have reached the point that, in combination, they are now likely to prove catastrophic.
A Final Thought
"For over a thousand years, Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of a triumph – a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters and musicians and strange animals from the conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conqueror rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children, robed in white, stood with him in the chariot, or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror, holding a golden crown, and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting." George C. Scott as Patton [emphasis added]
Showing posts with label quinn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label quinn. Show all posts
4 August 2009
15 July 2009
BOOMERS – WINTER IS COMING
Quinn is fantasic as an exponent of the generational hypothesis...but in the later half of this article he runs right off the rails on energy, imo into a partisan rant. The fact is, green jobs and energy efficiency have enormous upsides that many very intelligent americans seem unable to grasp.
July 13, 2009
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Winter is coming. Are you prepared? Americans see time as their enemy. Most Americans have bought into a view of the past and future as linear. When you observe the world in linear way and things are going well, the population is happy and confident. If you view the world in a linear way and things are going badly, the population sees nothing but terrible times ahead. This linear outlook of history and the future is not rational or supported by facts. I’m convinced that world history is not on a linear path towards Armageddon and the Rapture. This belief is preached by many of the mainstream religions, but the truth is that we’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end in the 2nd Coming of Christ. The American belief in a destiny of never ending progress will undergo its 3rd major crisis period since its founding. The resolution of this crisis is 10 to 20 years in the future. The outcome will remain in doubt until the definitive resolution.
Our everyday lives clearly support a cyclical view of the world. There are 24 hours in day progressing from light to darkness and back again. There are 365 days in a year progressing from Spring to Summer to Fall to Winter, and then starting the cycle over again. A month is dictated by the four phases of the Moon. Our oceans rise and fall in a predictable pattern of high tides and low tides based on lunar phases. Even Christian religions that preach a linear view of the world, celebrate their beliefs in a predictable annual cycle encompassing the life of Christ from is birth, life, death and resurrection. The human life cycle extends 80 to 100 years going through the stages of childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. This cycle has not changed over the whole history of earth. A long human life approximates a century of time. The rhythm of time has a regularity and cadence that is predictable on a generational level. The elites, most academics, religious zealots and social engineers scoff at the idea of predictable cycles of history. It throws a monkey wrench into their deceptive self aggrandizing agendas.
Generational Theory
We perceive our civic challenge as some vast, insoluble Rubik’s Cube. Behind each problem lies yet another, and another, ad infinitum. To fix crime we have to fix the family, but before we do that we have to fix welfare, and that means fixing our budget, and that means fixing our civic spirit, but we can’t do that without fixing moral standards, and that means fixing schools and churches, and that means fixing the inner cities, and that’s impossible unless we fix crime. There’s no fulcrum on which to rest a policy lever. People of all ages sense that something huge will have to sweep across America before the gloom can be lifted – but that’s an awareness we suppress. As a nation, we’re in deep denial. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Anyone who is being honest recognizes the country is on a path towards a major calamity. We have been living beyond our means for decades and the fiscal mismanagement of the country will come to a dramatic climax in the next decade. What many deny is that this crisis was pre-ordained based upon a predictable timeline of generational forces repeating over and over again throughout history. The elites are continuously stunned that every 20 to 25 years a fresh mood engulfs the country and new generations act differently than the generations who proceeded them. The privileged are astounded because they don’t want to accept the fact that progress is not linear and that society will undergo highs and lows over the course of a century.
Strauss and Howe have been able to trace consistent 80 to 100 year generational patterns throughout modern history. The 20 to 25 year quartiles are a High (1st Turning), an Awakening (2nd Turning), an Unraveling (3rd Turning), and a Crisis (4th Turning). They have also identified four archetypes that occupy their necessary position within the 80 to 100 year cycle. These archetypes are Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists. History forms the generations as the generations create history in a repetitive dance throughout the ages. The archetypes always follow the same path. As an example, the Prophet archetype is always born during a High, comes of age during an Awakening, enters midlife during an Unraveling, and spends their elderhood during a Crisis.
Below are charts detailing the archetypes and the 12 Turnings since the founding of the American Republic. There is a remarkable consistency of timing and scope regarding the previous Turnings in our history.
FIRST
TURNING
(High) SECOND
TURNING
(Awakening) THIRD
TURNING
(Unraveling) FOURTH
TURNING
(Crisis)
GENERATION ENTERING:
Elderhood Nomad Hero Artist Prophet
Midlife Hero Artist Prophet Nomad
Young Adulthood Artist Prophet Nomad Hero
Childhood Prophet Nomad Hero Artist
CIVIL WAR SAECULUM
Era of Good Feelings Transcendental Awakening Mexican War & Sectionalism Civil War
(1794-1822) (1822-1844) (1844-1860) (1860-1865)
GREAT POWER SAECULUM
Reconstruction & Gilded Age Third Great Awakening World War I & Prohibition Great Depression& World War II
(1865-1886) (1886-1908) (1908-1929) (1929-1946)
MILLENNIAL SAECULUM
American High Consciousness Revolution Culture Wars Millennial Crisis?
(1946-1964) (1964-1984) (1984-2005?) (2005?-2026?)
The archetypes that comprise a human life cycle follow the same repetitive pattern throughout history and they show the same traits and attitudes as their preceding archetype. Strauss & Howe describe the archetypes as follows:
A Prophet generation grows up as increasingly indulged post-Crisis children, comes of age as the narcissistic young crusaders of an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic mid-lifers, and emerges as wise elders guiding the next Crisis. (Boomers – indulged, narcissistic, moralistic, wise)
A Nomad generation grows up as under-protected children during an Awakening, comes of age as alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, mellows into pragmatic mid-life leaders during a Crisis, and ages into tough post-Crisis elders. (Generation X – abandoned, alienated, pragmatic, tough)
A Hero generation grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as heroic young team workers of a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as energetic mid-lifers, and emerges as powerful elders attacked by the next Awakening. (Millennial – protected, heroic, hubristic, powerful)
An Artist generation grows up as overprotected children during a Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-Crisis world, breaks free as indecisive mid-life leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathetic post-Awakening elders. (Homelanders – suffocated, sensitive, indecisive, empathetic)
The First Turning is referred to as a High. A High always follows a period of Crisis. The hallmark of a First Turning is a heightened sense of community and collective confidence, driven in part by the fact that the society has just come through a difficult and challenging period. Consequently, during First Turnings, societal institutions tend to be strong while individualism is weak. The post-World War II "High" of the mid-1940s through early '60s is the most recent example of a First Turning. The victory over Nazism and Fascism marked the beginning of this High. The United States was on top of the world. We exited World War II as an ascending superpower. The Marshall Plan rebuilt Europe and Japan. The middle class grew and flourished as former GI’s built the suburbs and the interstate highway system. During this period Old Prophets disappear, Nomads enter elderhood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born. These new Prophets were the Baby Boom Generation.
The Second Turning, called an Awakening, starts out feeling like the high tide of a High, with signs of advancement and prosperity everywhere. Just as everything seems to be going along swimmingly, large swaths of society begin to chaff under the social conformity of the High, beginning to gravitate to more individualistic pursuits and demanding that their personal interests come first. The "Consciousness Revolution" of the mid-1960s through early 1980s was our most recent Awakening. The trigger for this Turning was the assassination of John F. Kennedy. No one expected the turmoil that would occur over the next 10 years. Urban riots, campus riots, Civil rights protests, Kent State, Woodstock, Watergate, the feminist movement, counterculture, drugs, violent crime and family strife marked the next two decades. The New Age movement and Me Generation dominated the culture until the Reagan era. During this phase Old Nomads disappear, Heroes enter elderhood, Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is born. These Nomads are known as Generation X.
The Third Turning, called an Unraveling, is the opposite of a High. Individualism rules, while establishments such as government, religion and military are increasingly weak and discredited. Neil Howe describes a typical Unraveling:
"This is a time when social authority feels inconsequential, the culture feels exhausted, and people feel bewildered by the number of options available to them. It is a time of celebrity circuses and a tremendous amount of freedom and creativity in our personal lives, but very little sense of public purpose.”
The most recent Third Turning began in 1984 with Ronald Reagan’s optimistic Morning in America message led to the fall of communism and the collapse of the Berlin Wall. The culture wars that have raged since the mid-1980’s have turned the initial optimism into an overwhelming sense of pessimism. There is no national consensus. The country’s leaders have ignored national problems such as unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations, a coherent energy policy, and a deteriorating educational system. Popular culture centers around celebrity circuses like Michael Jackson’s death and Michelle Obama’s fashion choices. Americans reflect darkly on the future as growing financial and social inequality tears at the fabric of the country. The rich take advantage of the financial service economy and grow ever richer at the expense of the middle class. The poor pay no taxes and receive social transfer payments and take advantage of easy credit to live like the rich. The middle class is disillusioned and angry as manufacturing jobs leave the country. Previous periods of Unraveling in American history were also decades of cynicism and bad manners. The Roaring 20’s were the last Unraveling period that led to the stock market crash in 1929, the Great Depression and World War II. History teaches us that Third Turnings inevitably end in Fourth Turnings. During this phase, Old Heroes disappear, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets enter midlife, Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is born. The latest Hero generation is the Millenials
Lastly, there is the Fourth Turning, called a Crisis. We are currently on the verge of a Fourth Turning. This is a time of great turmoil, when society's basic institutions are torn down and rebuilt, and seemingly intractable problems are addressed. The apparently unsolvable financial dilemma of the country along with comprehension that Peak Oil has occurred will trigger the Crisis. The ultimate resolution could be rational and well thought out or it could end in a fiery fight to the death between countries or generations. During Fourth Turnings, America engages in a struggle for its very survival and redefines its identity as a nation. Large wars are often a part of this process. The American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression, and World War II were all facets of past Fourth Turnings. During this period Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.
According to Strauss & Howe past Fourth Turnings in U.S. history we have overcome intractable problems and forged a new beginning:
“In the 1790’s, they triumphantly created the modern world’s first democratic republic. In the late 1860’s, wounded but reunited, they forged a genuine nation extending new guarantees of liberty and equality. In the late 1940’s, they constructed the most Promethean superpower ever seen.”
Sometime between today and 2025, this nation will undergo a test of its very survival. The ultimate outcome will be in doubt. Strauss and Howe paint a dire picture of the coming decades:
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.”
Boomers Unraveling
America feels like it is unraveling. Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Most of my adult life has been spent during the current Unraveling. In 1984 I was twenty-one years old and about to enter the workforce. The country was recovering from the worst recession in decades and the turmoil of the 1970’s was subsiding. Ronald Reagan (GI Generation) won re-election with a 49 state to 1 landslide victory over Walter Mondale using his Morning in America campaign slogan. Reagan’s tax cuts, interest rates starting a two decade decline and increased military spending combined to juice the economy. Reagan’s policies were the final dagger in the side of communism. The Soviet Union collapsed and the Berlin Wall fell. What many thought was the end of history, with democracy and capitalism victors, turned out to be a fleeting high. The initial signs of Unraveling were seen during Reagan administration. The Space Shuttle Challenger exploded, leading to questions of competence at NASA. The Iran-Contra scandal derailed the Reagan agenda as he showed signs of mental decline. The American military retreated from Lebanon after 220 Marines were killed in a terrorist attack. The stock market crashed, losing 508 points in one day, a 23% decline. The movie Wall Street with its amoral cynical view of the world captured the darkening mood of the country.
The first George Bush administration was marked by the Gulf War, which planted the poisonous seeds for our future War on Terror, and the recession which cost George Bush a 2nd term. The unraveling could clearly be seen in the 1992 Presidential election, as Ross Perot won the most votes as a 3rd Party candidate since 1912. During the Clinton administration the country continued to fragment, became more divisive, and cynical. Politics became gridlocked, which resulted in reduced government spending. A laissez-faire attitude was promoted by Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin for the financial markets. This led to the Dot.com bubble and its eventual collapse. Trust in financial, government, and religious institutions continued to erode. The Oklahoma City bombing and the Columbine high school slaughter convinced many that something was very wrong with our culture. A distrustful alienation had solidified into an overwhelming gloom.
The Unraveling picked up speed during George W. Bush’s administration. The stock market continued to implode, the economy entered recession and half the country felt that George Bush was not a legitimate President. Then the country was shaken to its core by the 9/11 attack. For a brief time, the country rallied around the flag and fully supported the invasion of Afghanistan. This appeared to be the trigger for the next American Crisis. Instead, it resulted in an acceleration of the Unraveling. A true trigger for a Crisis period will rally the entire population (Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor). The disastrous invasion of Iraq, horrific financial management of the economy by Alan Greenspan, individualistic greed and hubris of Wall Street, blatant corruption in Washington D.C., and complete lack of regulation by governmental agencies led to the collapse of the global economy in 2008. Decisive public action regarding $56 trillion of unfunded social liabilities, soaring public and private debt, and non-existent energy policy has been deferred for decades. Now there is no doubt that this paralysis and inaction will lead us into the next Crisis. The majority of Americans feel we are not on the right track, because we’re not. The coming catastrophe will truly test the mettle of our country.
Generation X – Assuming Command
We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don’t add up to an actualized society. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated young adults. Generation X leaders will be pragmatic, savvy and practical. Obama has proven thus far to be pragmatic and able to get his agenda initiated. Previous Nomad leaders who proved to be highly competent doers during a time of Crisis include Dwight D. Eisenhower, George Patton, and Harry Truman. You may not agree with Obama’s plans or policies, but it is clear to anyone that he is an intelligent, pragmatic man that will institute dramatic change in the policies of the United States.
It is very likely that Barack Obama will lead the country into the next Crisis. He will not lead us out of the Crisis, as it is unlikely to subside until 2025. As the Unraveling transitions into Crisis the apathy reflected in historic low voter turnout will reverse itself as Americans become mobilized by the Crisis. The economy always undergoes wrenching transformations during a Crisis. The U.S. economy will likely be racked by panic, depression, inflation and war. We have witnessed a preliminary financial panic, but the real panic will be much more traumatic. The separateness and blame witnessed during the Unraveling will transform into gathering and family togetherness. McMansions will become useful as three generations will more frequently live under one roof. Immigration will decline as the population will fear outsiders and place strict restrictions on foreigners entering the country. During the coming crisis, our culture will likely be cleansed, censored, and harnessed for the public good. The current ongoing financial debacle will ultimately contribute to the Crisis causing trigger of a worldwide oil shortage.
July 13, 2009
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Winter is coming. Are you prepared? Americans see time as their enemy. Most Americans have bought into a view of the past and future as linear. When you observe the world in linear way and things are going well, the population is happy and confident. If you view the world in a linear way and things are going badly, the population sees nothing but terrible times ahead. This linear outlook of history and the future is not rational or supported by facts. I’m convinced that world history is not on a linear path towards Armageddon and the Rapture. This belief is preached by many of the mainstream religions, but the truth is that we’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end in the 2nd Coming of Christ. The American belief in a destiny of never ending progress will undergo its 3rd major crisis period since its founding. The resolution of this crisis is 10 to 20 years in the future. The outcome will remain in doubt until the definitive resolution.
Our everyday lives clearly support a cyclical view of the world. There are 24 hours in day progressing from light to darkness and back again. There are 365 days in a year progressing from Spring to Summer to Fall to Winter, and then starting the cycle over again. A month is dictated by the four phases of the Moon. Our oceans rise and fall in a predictable pattern of high tides and low tides based on lunar phases. Even Christian religions that preach a linear view of the world, celebrate their beliefs in a predictable annual cycle encompassing the life of Christ from is birth, life, death and resurrection. The human life cycle extends 80 to 100 years going through the stages of childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. This cycle has not changed over the whole history of earth. A long human life approximates a century of time. The rhythm of time has a regularity and cadence that is predictable on a generational level. The elites, most academics, religious zealots and social engineers scoff at the idea of predictable cycles of history. It throws a monkey wrench into their deceptive self aggrandizing agendas.
Generational Theory
We perceive our civic challenge as some vast, insoluble Rubik’s Cube. Behind each problem lies yet another, and another, ad infinitum. To fix crime we have to fix the family, but before we do that we have to fix welfare, and that means fixing our budget, and that means fixing our civic spirit, but we can’t do that without fixing moral standards, and that means fixing schools and churches, and that means fixing the inner cities, and that’s impossible unless we fix crime. There’s no fulcrum on which to rest a policy lever. People of all ages sense that something huge will have to sweep across America before the gloom can be lifted – but that’s an awareness we suppress. As a nation, we’re in deep denial. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Anyone who is being honest recognizes the country is on a path towards a major calamity. We have been living beyond our means for decades and the fiscal mismanagement of the country will come to a dramatic climax in the next decade. What many deny is that this crisis was pre-ordained based upon a predictable timeline of generational forces repeating over and over again throughout history. The elites are continuously stunned that every 20 to 25 years a fresh mood engulfs the country and new generations act differently than the generations who proceeded them. The privileged are astounded because they don’t want to accept the fact that progress is not linear and that society will undergo highs and lows over the course of a century.
Strauss and Howe have been able to trace consistent 80 to 100 year generational patterns throughout modern history. The 20 to 25 year quartiles are a High (1st Turning), an Awakening (2nd Turning), an Unraveling (3rd Turning), and a Crisis (4th Turning). They have also identified four archetypes that occupy their necessary position within the 80 to 100 year cycle. These archetypes are Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists. History forms the generations as the generations create history in a repetitive dance throughout the ages. The archetypes always follow the same path. As an example, the Prophet archetype is always born during a High, comes of age during an Awakening, enters midlife during an Unraveling, and spends their elderhood during a Crisis.
Below are charts detailing the archetypes and the 12 Turnings since the founding of the American Republic. There is a remarkable consistency of timing and scope regarding the previous Turnings in our history.
FIRST
TURNING
(High) SECOND
TURNING
(Awakening) THIRD
TURNING
(Unraveling) FOURTH
TURNING
(Crisis)
GENERATION ENTERING:
Elderhood Nomad Hero Artist Prophet
Midlife Hero Artist Prophet Nomad
Young Adulthood Artist Prophet Nomad Hero
Childhood Prophet Nomad Hero Artist
CIVIL WAR SAECULUM
Era of Good Feelings Transcendental Awakening Mexican War & Sectionalism Civil War
(1794-1822) (1822-1844) (1844-1860) (1860-1865)
GREAT POWER SAECULUM
Reconstruction & Gilded Age Third Great Awakening World War I & Prohibition Great Depression& World War II
(1865-1886) (1886-1908) (1908-1929) (1929-1946)
MILLENNIAL SAECULUM
American High Consciousness Revolution Culture Wars Millennial Crisis?
(1946-1964) (1964-1984) (1984-2005?) (2005?-2026?)
The archetypes that comprise a human life cycle follow the same repetitive pattern throughout history and they show the same traits and attitudes as their preceding archetype. Strauss & Howe describe the archetypes as follows:
A Prophet generation grows up as increasingly indulged post-Crisis children, comes of age as the narcissistic young crusaders of an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic mid-lifers, and emerges as wise elders guiding the next Crisis. (Boomers – indulged, narcissistic, moralistic, wise)
A Nomad generation grows up as under-protected children during an Awakening, comes of age as alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, mellows into pragmatic mid-life leaders during a Crisis, and ages into tough post-Crisis elders. (Generation X – abandoned, alienated, pragmatic, tough)
A Hero generation grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as heroic young team workers of a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as energetic mid-lifers, and emerges as powerful elders attacked by the next Awakening. (Millennial – protected, heroic, hubristic, powerful)
An Artist generation grows up as overprotected children during a Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-Crisis world, breaks free as indecisive mid-life leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathetic post-Awakening elders. (Homelanders – suffocated, sensitive, indecisive, empathetic)
The First Turning is referred to as a High. A High always follows a period of Crisis. The hallmark of a First Turning is a heightened sense of community and collective confidence, driven in part by the fact that the society has just come through a difficult and challenging period. Consequently, during First Turnings, societal institutions tend to be strong while individualism is weak. The post-World War II "High" of the mid-1940s through early '60s is the most recent example of a First Turning. The victory over Nazism and Fascism marked the beginning of this High. The United States was on top of the world. We exited World War II as an ascending superpower. The Marshall Plan rebuilt Europe and Japan. The middle class grew and flourished as former GI’s built the suburbs and the interstate highway system. During this period Old Prophets disappear, Nomads enter elderhood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born. These new Prophets were the Baby Boom Generation.
The Second Turning, called an Awakening, starts out feeling like the high tide of a High, with signs of advancement and prosperity everywhere. Just as everything seems to be going along swimmingly, large swaths of society begin to chaff under the social conformity of the High, beginning to gravitate to more individualistic pursuits and demanding that their personal interests come first. The "Consciousness Revolution" of the mid-1960s through early 1980s was our most recent Awakening. The trigger for this Turning was the assassination of John F. Kennedy. No one expected the turmoil that would occur over the next 10 years. Urban riots, campus riots, Civil rights protests, Kent State, Woodstock, Watergate, the feminist movement, counterculture, drugs, violent crime and family strife marked the next two decades. The New Age movement and Me Generation dominated the culture until the Reagan era. During this phase Old Nomads disappear, Heroes enter elderhood, Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is born. These Nomads are known as Generation X.
The Third Turning, called an Unraveling, is the opposite of a High. Individualism rules, while establishments such as government, religion and military are increasingly weak and discredited. Neil Howe describes a typical Unraveling:
"This is a time when social authority feels inconsequential, the culture feels exhausted, and people feel bewildered by the number of options available to them. It is a time of celebrity circuses and a tremendous amount of freedom and creativity in our personal lives, but very little sense of public purpose.”
The most recent Third Turning began in 1984 with Ronald Reagan’s optimistic Morning in America message led to the fall of communism and the collapse of the Berlin Wall. The culture wars that have raged since the mid-1980’s have turned the initial optimism into an overwhelming sense of pessimism. There is no national consensus. The country’s leaders have ignored national problems such as unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations, a coherent energy policy, and a deteriorating educational system. Popular culture centers around celebrity circuses like Michael Jackson’s death and Michelle Obama’s fashion choices. Americans reflect darkly on the future as growing financial and social inequality tears at the fabric of the country. The rich take advantage of the financial service economy and grow ever richer at the expense of the middle class. The poor pay no taxes and receive social transfer payments and take advantage of easy credit to live like the rich. The middle class is disillusioned and angry as manufacturing jobs leave the country. Previous periods of Unraveling in American history were also decades of cynicism and bad manners. The Roaring 20’s were the last Unraveling period that led to the stock market crash in 1929, the Great Depression and World War II. History teaches us that Third Turnings inevitably end in Fourth Turnings. During this phase, Old Heroes disappear, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets enter midlife, Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is born. The latest Hero generation is the Millenials
Lastly, there is the Fourth Turning, called a Crisis. We are currently on the verge of a Fourth Turning. This is a time of great turmoil, when society's basic institutions are torn down and rebuilt, and seemingly intractable problems are addressed. The apparently unsolvable financial dilemma of the country along with comprehension that Peak Oil has occurred will trigger the Crisis. The ultimate resolution could be rational and well thought out or it could end in a fiery fight to the death between countries or generations. During Fourth Turnings, America engages in a struggle for its very survival and redefines its identity as a nation. Large wars are often a part of this process. The American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression, and World War II were all facets of past Fourth Turnings. During this period Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.
According to Strauss & Howe past Fourth Turnings in U.S. history we have overcome intractable problems and forged a new beginning:
“In the 1790’s, they triumphantly created the modern world’s first democratic republic. In the late 1860’s, wounded but reunited, they forged a genuine nation extending new guarantees of liberty and equality. In the late 1940’s, they constructed the most Promethean superpower ever seen.”
Sometime between today and 2025, this nation will undergo a test of its very survival. The ultimate outcome will be in doubt. Strauss and Howe paint a dire picture of the coming decades:
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.”
Boomers Unraveling
America feels like it is unraveling. Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Most of my adult life has been spent during the current Unraveling. In 1984 I was twenty-one years old and about to enter the workforce. The country was recovering from the worst recession in decades and the turmoil of the 1970’s was subsiding. Ronald Reagan (GI Generation) won re-election with a 49 state to 1 landslide victory over Walter Mondale using his Morning in America campaign slogan. Reagan’s tax cuts, interest rates starting a two decade decline and increased military spending combined to juice the economy. Reagan’s policies were the final dagger in the side of communism. The Soviet Union collapsed and the Berlin Wall fell. What many thought was the end of history, with democracy and capitalism victors, turned out to be a fleeting high. The initial signs of Unraveling were seen during Reagan administration. The Space Shuttle Challenger exploded, leading to questions of competence at NASA. The Iran-Contra scandal derailed the Reagan agenda as he showed signs of mental decline. The American military retreated from Lebanon after 220 Marines were killed in a terrorist attack. The stock market crashed, losing 508 points in one day, a 23% decline. The movie Wall Street with its amoral cynical view of the world captured the darkening mood of the country.
The first George Bush administration was marked by the Gulf War, which planted the poisonous seeds for our future War on Terror, and the recession which cost George Bush a 2nd term. The unraveling could clearly be seen in the 1992 Presidential election, as Ross Perot won the most votes as a 3rd Party candidate since 1912. During the Clinton administration the country continued to fragment, became more divisive, and cynical. Politics became gridlocked, which resulted in reduced government spending. A laissez-faire attitude was promoted by Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin for the financial markets. This led to the Dot.com bubble and its eventual collapse. Trust in financial, government, and religious institutions continued to erode. The Oklahoma City bombing and the Columbine high school slaughter convinced many that something was very wrong with our culture. A distrustful alienation had solidified into an overwhelming gloom.
The Unraveling picked up speed during George W. Bush’s administration. The stock market continued to implode, the economy entered recession and half the country felt that George Bush was not a legitimate President. Then the country was shaken to its core by the 9/11 attack. For a brief time, the country rallied around the flag and fully supported the invasion of Afghanistan. This appeared to be the trigger for the next American Crisis. Instead, it resulted in an acceleration of the Unraveling. A true trigger for a Crisis period will rally the entire population (Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor). The disastrous invasion of Iraq, horrific financial management of the economy by Alan Greenspan, individualistic greed and hubris of Wall Street, blatant corruption in Washington D.C., and complete lack of regulation by governmental agencies led to the collapse of the global economy in 2008. Decisive public action regarding $56 trillion of unfunded social liabilities, soaring public and private debt, and non-existent energy policy has been deferred for decades. Now there is no doubt that this paralysis and inaction will lead us into the next Crisis. The majority of Americans feel we are not on the right track, because we’re not. The coming catastrophe will truly test the mettle of our country.
Generation X – Assuming Command
We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don’t add up to an actualized society. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated young adults. Generation X leaders will be pragmatic, savvy and practical. Obama has proven thus far to be pragmatic and able to get his agenda initiated. Previous Nomad leaders who proved to be highly competent doers during a time of Crisis include Dwight D. Eisenhower, George Patton, and Harry Truman. You may not agree with Obama’s plans or policies, but it is clear to anyone that he is an intelligent, pragmatic man that will institute dramatic change in the policies of the United States.
It is very likely that Barack Obama will lead the country into the next Crisis. He will not lead us out of the Crisis, as it is unlikely to subside until 2025. As the Unraveling transitions into Crisis the apathy reflected in historic low voter turnout will reverse itself as Americans become mobilized by the Crisis. The economy always undergoes wrenching transformations during a Crisis. The U.S. economy will likely be racked by panic, depression, inflation and war. We have witnessed a preliminary financial panic, but the real panic will be much more traumatic. The separateness and blame witnessed during the Unraveling will transform into gathering and family togetherness. McMansions will become useful as three generations will more frequently live under one roof. Immigration will decline as the population will fear outsiders and place strict restrictions on foreigners entering the country. During the coming crisis, our culture will likely be cleansed, censored, and harnessed for the public good. The current ongoing financial debacle will ultimately contribute to the Crisis causing trigger of a worldwide oil shortage.
27 May 2009
It can be legal and still evil ~ Quinn
The system is strong and respected. The system is tested and proves resilient. The system is taken for granted. The onerous parts of the system are modified for the ease of major players. The system is loaded up for failure by those who forget the whys and hows of why the system was set up in a particular way in the first place...
Quinn on the evil in the system.....
Evil Words & Actions
“False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”
Socrates
CEO’s of banks and financial institutions going on TV and lying that their firms were strong and viable. (Angelo Mozilo, Jimmy Cayne, Ken Lewis, Robert Steele, Charles Prince, John Thain)
The President and Vice President of the United States lying to the American people that there were WMD in Iraq and proclaiming that Iraq was involved in the 9/11 attack.
The Secretary of the Treasury lying to the American people and Congress regarding the banking system in order to ram the TARP bill through Congress.
The Secretary of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Chairman threatening the CEO of Bank of America and forcing him to lie about the true losses of Merrill Lynch.
Mortgage brokers lying to their clients regarding the terms of the toxic mortgage products they were peddling.
Homebuyers who lied about their income and/or assets in order to qualify for a mortgage.
Alan Greenspan urging Americans to take out an adjustable rate mortgage when rates were at all time lows, while simultaneously saying that home prices on a national basis would never fall.
Treasury Secretaries and other high officials lying on their tax returns.
Financial advisors telling their clients to invest in a financial product because it makes the advisor more money, versus being in the best interest of the client.
Being politically correct in your speech rather than truthful because a constituent might be offended.
Politicians making promises to voters while trying to be elected which they never intend to keep.
When the President of the United States commits adultery in the Oval office and then lies to the American public.
Creative Evil
“Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil.Knowledge becomes evil if the aim be not virtuous.”
Plato
When the highly educated use their knowledge to keep the ignorant from understanding the truth about the financial condition of the country.
When the Federal Reserve Chairman withholds the names of the banks that have received billions in taxpayer funds with no accountability.
The MBA genius or geniuses who created the stated income, no documentation mortgage loan in order to enrich themselves and their leaders.
The millions of Americans who accepted loans for homes, cars, and home furnishings that they knew they could never repay.
The bankers who made loans to people who they knew could never repay them, because they would earn all of their money upfront and would sell the loans to someone else.
The executives of AIG who silently allowed twenty employees in their Financial Products Group, led by Joseph Cassano, to gamble and lose $500 billion while paying Mr. Cassano $280 million in compensation.
Alan Greenspan for allowing moral hazard to grow to immense proportions due to the unspoken Greenspan Put. Every financial institution knew he would come to their rescue if their risky bets blew up. Therefore, they had no reason not to leverage 40 to 1.
The bank executives who allowed their trading desks to use derivatives to make huge bets on currencies, interest rates, default rates, and mortgages in order to generate obscene salaries, bonuses and stock option awards. The original purpose of derivatives was to hedge risks.
The rating agencies Moody’s and S&P who took blood money from banks and other financial institutions to rate packages of subprime mortgages, credit card debt, and car loans as AAA without ever examining the assets or real potential for default.
The Accounting Firms that will sell audit opinions based on the amount of fees they receive. This leads to the logical conclusion that no financial statements can be relied upon.
The bank executives who knowingly sold toxic worthless assets to pension funds, insurance companies, municipalities and senior citizens because of their desire for short-term profits and obscene bonuses.
Government Evil
“Society in every state is a blessing, but government, even in its best stage, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one.”
Thomas Paine
When elected government officials secretly collude with bankers to create a non-governmental Federal Reserve Bank that controls the currency of the country and systematically generates inflation to allow government to spend at an ever increasing rate.
Taxing citizens to create bureaucratic government agencies and programs that fail to accomplish their mission while continuing to grow in size as politicians use them to reward the contributors to their re-election campaigns.
Congressmen allowing 40,000 highly paid corporate lobbyists in Washington DC to write laws and buy votes because it will keep them in power.
Putting thousands of earmarks into every Congressional spending bill to benefit your supporters to the detriment of the country.
When government employees leave government service and accept high paying jobs with the companies they previously regulated.
The SEC hierarchy ignoring the conclusive evidence provided by Harry Markopoulos about the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme because Madoff was respected, connected and had friends in high places at the SEC.
Low paid SEC investigators are purposely less stringent in their investigations because they want high paying jobs on Wall Street with the firms they are regulating.
The Federal Reserve has purposely taken worthless assets onto their balance sheet from insolvent banks in order to fraudulently portray the U.S. banking system as healthy. They have committed billions of taxpayer funds with no oversight or audit of their activities.
Taxing citizens to use the money to create offensive weapons of war and using them to preemptively invade a sovereign country with no Constitutionally required declaration of war.
Launching hundreds of cruise missiles from a thousand miles away into a city of six million people, knowing thousands of innocent people would be murdered.
Torturing human beings at Abu Ghraib and Guantanomo, thereby winning the fight, but losing the war. The U.S. will have no moral authority when American soldiers are captured and tortured.
Invading a country under false pretenses in order to enforce our world view on a sovereign nation to secure billions of barrels of oil.
Selling weapons of mass destruction to other nations.
Convincing the majority of the population through manipulative means to give up freedoms and liberties in the name of safety and security.
Monitoring the phone conversations, emails, and movements of American citizens without their knowledge.
Paying farmers to not grow food, while millions in the world starve to death every year.
Encouraging the poorest Americans to gamble what little they have at State sponsored casinos and in State run lotteries to pay for ever increasing State spending.
Politicians spend money today in order to bribe their constituents for votes, while passing the bill onto future unborn generations.
Politicians pass laws that reallocate wealth from producers to the takers in society and create a class of societal dependents who will continue to vote for more goodies and benefits.
The FASB allows financial firms to value “assets” at whatever price they choose in order to mislead investors.
Media Evil
“Young people are threatened... by the evil use of advertising techniques that stimulate the natural inclination to avoid hard work by promising the immediate satisfaction of every desire.”
Pope John Paul II
Advertising by the National Association of Realtors in 2005 and 2006 after home prices had doubled in five years telling all Americans it was the best time to buy and that buying a house is always a great investment.
Both liberal and conservative ideologue pundits skewing every issue in order to prove their pre-ordained position.
Corporate titans like GE own TV networks and slanting the reporting of the news in a way that aligns with their corporate interests.
Paid political consultants train politicians to not answer the questions they are asked. They are trained to repeat their talking points, not answer questions truthfully.
The mainstream media use their power and influence to mislead the public regarding the true state of the economy and the truth about the future finances of the country.
Companies like GMAC/Ditech used misleading TV commercials to lure the ignorant and poor into loans which they could never repay.
The negative ads run during political campaigns are made up of smears, innuendo, half truths, and bold faced lies intended to destroy the character of opponents.
Using polls in order to slant your message in a way that appeals to the most voters.
Using advertising techniques to convince people to buy products they can’t afford by appealing to their emotions and biases.
TV shows that glorify killers, immoral lifestyles, crime, drug use, etc. in order to push their agenda on children.
The media exaggerating risks of pandemics, terrorism, crime, and weather events in order to increase ratings.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0526.html
Quinn on the evil in the system.....
Evil Words & Actions
“False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”
Socrates
CEO’s of banks and financial institutions going on TV and lying that their firms were strong and viable. (Angelo Mozilo, Jimmy Cayne, Ken Lewis, Robert Steele, Charles Prince, John Thain)
The President and Vice President of the United States lying to the American people that there were WMD in Iraq and proclaiming that Iraq was involved in the 9/11 attack.
The Secretary of the Treasury lying to the American people and Congress regarding the banking system in order to ram the TARP bill through Congress.
The Secretary of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Chairman threatening the CEO of Bank of America and forcing him to lie about the true losses of Merrill Lynch.
Mortgage brokers lying to their clients regarding the terms of the toxic mortgage products they were peddling.
Homebuyers who lied about their income and/or assets in order to qualify for a mortgage.
Alan Greenspan urging Americans to take out an adjustable rate mortgage when rates were at all time lows, while simultaneously saying that home prices on a national basis would never fall.
Treasury Secretaries and other high officials lying on their tax returns.
Financial advisors telling their clients to invest in a financial product because it makes the advisor more money, versus being in the best interest of the client.
Being politically correct in your speech rather than truthful because a constituent might be offended.
Politicians making promises to voters while trying to be elected which they never intend to keep.
When the President of the United States commits adultery in the Oval office and then lies to the American public.
Creative Evil
“Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil.Knowledge becomes evil if the aim be not virtuous.”
Plato
When the highly educated use their knowledge to keep the ignorant from understanding the truth about the financial condition of the country.
When the Federal Reserve Chairman withholds the names of the banks that have received billions in taxpayer funds with no accountability.
The MBA genius or geniuses who created the stated income, no documentation mortgage loan in order to enrich themselves and their leaders.
The millions of Americans who accepted loans for homes, cars, and home furnishings that they knew they could never repay.
The bankers who made loans to people who they knew could never repay them, because they would earn all of their money upfront and would sell the loans to someone else.
The executives of AIG who silently allowed twenty employees in their Financial Products Group, led by Joseph Cassano, to gamble and lose $500 billion while paying Mr. Cassano $280 million in compensation.
Alan Greenspan for allowing moral hazard to grow to immense proportions due to the unspoken Greenspan Put. Every financial institution knew he would come to their rescue if their risky bets blew up. Therefore, they had no reason not to leverage 40 to 1.
The bank executives who allowed their trading desks to use derivatives to make huge bets on currencies, interest rates, default rates, and mortgages in order to generate obscene salaries, bonuses and stock option awards. The original purpose of derivatives was to hedge risks.
The rating agencies Moody’s and S&P who took blood money from banks and other financial institutions to rate packages of subprime mortgages, credit card debt, and car loans as AAA without ever examining the assets or real potential for default.
The Accounting Firms that will sell audit opinions based on the amount of fees they receive. This leads to the logical conclusion that no financial statements can be relied upon.
The bank executives who knowingly sold toxic worthless assets to pension funds, insurance companies, municipalities and senior citizens because of their desire for short-term profits and obscene bonuses.
Government Evil
“Society in every state is a blessing, but government, even in its best stage, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one.”
Thomas Paine
When elected government officials secretly collude with bankers to create a non-governmental Federal Reserve Bank that controls the currency of the country and systematically generates inflation to allow government to spend at an ever increasing rate.
Taxing citizens to create bureaucratic government agencies and programs that fail to accomplish their mission while continuing to grow in size as politicians use them to reward the contributors to their re-election campaigns.
Congressmen allowing 40,000 highly paid corporate lobbyists in Washington DC to write laws and buy votes because it will keep them in power.
Putting thousands of earmarks into every Congressional spending bill to benefit your supporters to the detriment of the country.
When government employees leave government service and accept high paying jobs with the companies they previously regulated.
The SEC hierarchy ignoring the conclusive evidence provided by Harry Markopoulos about the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme because Madoff was respected, connected and had friends in high places at the SEC.
Low paid SEC investigators are purposely less stringent in their investigations because they want high paying jobs on Wall Street with the firms they are regulating.
The Federal Reserve has purposely taken worthless assets onto their balance sheet from insolvent banks in order to fraudulently portray the U.S. banking system as healthy. They have committed billions of taxpayer funds with no oversight or audit of their activities.
Taxing citizens to use the money to create offensive weapons of war and using them to preemptively invade a sovereign country with no Constitutionally required declaration of war.
Launching hundreds of cruise missiles from a thousand miles away into a city of six million people, knowing thousands of innocent people would be murdered.
Torturing human beings at Abu Ghraib and Guantanomo, thereby winning the fight, but losing the war. The U.S. will have no moral authority when American soldiers are captured and tortured.
Invading a country under false pretenses in order to enforce our world view on a sovereign nation to secure billions of barrels of oil.
Selling weapons of mass destruction to other nations.
Convincing the majority of the population through manipulative means to give up freedoms and liberties in the name of safety and security.
Monitoring the phone conversations, emails, and movements of American citizens without their knowledge.
Paying farmers to not grow food, while millions in the world starve to death every year.
Encouraging the poorest Americans to gamble what little they have at State sponsored casinos and in State run lotteries to pay for ever increasing State spending.
Politicians spend money today in order to bribe their constituents for votes, while passing the bill onto future unborn generations.
Politicians pass laws that reallocate wealth from producers to the takers in society and create a class of societal dependents who will continue to vote for more goodies and benefits.
The FASB allows financial firms to value “assets” at whatever price they choose in order to mislead investors.
Media Evil
“Young people are threatened... by the evil use of advertising techniques that stimulate the natural inclination to avoid hard work by promising the immediate satisfaction of every desire.”
Pope John Paul II
Advertising by the National Association of Realtors in 2005 and 2006 after home prices had doubled in five years telling all Americans it was the best time to buy and that buying a house is always a great investment.
Both liberal and conservative ideologue pundits skewing every issue in order to prove their pre-ordained position.
Corporate titans like GE own TV networks and slanting the reporting of the news in a way that aligns with their corporate interests.
Paid political consultants train politicians to not answer the questions they are asked. They are trained to repeat their talking points, not answer questions truthfully.
The mainstream media use their power and influence to mislead the public regarding the true state of the economy and the truth about the future finances of the country.
Companies like GMAC/Ditech used misleading TV commercials to lure the ignorant and poor into loans which they could never repay.
The negative ads run during political campaigns are made up of smears, innuendo, half truths, and bold faced lies intended to destroy the character of opponents.
Using polls in order to slant your message in a way that appeals to the most voters.
Using advertising techniques to convince people to buy products they can’t afford by appealing to their emotions and biases.
TV shows that glorify killers, immoral lifestyles, crime, drug use, etc. in order to push their agenda on children.
The media exaggerating risks of pandemics, terrorism, crime, and weather events in order to increase ratings.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0526.html
30 April 2009
"The world is burning to the ground" ~ Quinn
“The US government is on a ‘burning platform’ of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon. There are striking similarities between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government.”
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0428.html
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0428.html
23 April 2009
KNOW YOUR ENEMY ` James Quinn
Welcome to a new kind of tension.
All across the alien nation.
Where everything isn't meant to be okay.
American Idiot - Green Day
Strauss & Howe described the Prophet/Idealist generation as being born during a High, spending its rising adult years during an Awakening, spending midlife during an Unraveling, and spending old age in a Crisis. Prophetic leaders have been cerebral and principled, summoners of human sacrifice, wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform. Late in life, most prophets come to be revered as much for their words as for their deeds. The three previous crisis periods in U.S. history were dominated by the prophetic leadership of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt. George Bush has led us through the 1st half of this crisis. It is likely that Barack Obama will lead us through the 2nd half of the crisis. I don’t think George Bush will be revered for being cerebral or making inspiring speeches. He did wage a righteous war against terrorism. Barack Obama is cerebral and principled. He is waging a righteous war in Afghanistan, though he has never seen combat. He is already known for his inspiring speeches. Will he rise to the level of Lincoln?
George Bush and Barack Obama are both Baby Boomers. The oldest boomer is 63, the youngest 45. Boomers occupy the leadership positions in government, corporations, military, and educational institutions. Boomer leaders are cocky, aggressive, and quoting Doug Casey,
“quite willing to burn down the barn in order to destroy whatever rats they see.” George Bush was sure there was WMD in Iraq. He was sure that cutting taxes, sending out rebate checks, and letting banks regulate themselves was the path to prosperity. Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke were sure that TARP would save our financial system from collapse. Barack Obama was sure that if we didn’t pass his bloated stimulus bill, catastrophe awaited the country. Baby Boom leaders are always sure and often wrong. The masses are drawn to leaders who are sure of themselves. They want to believe that a wise man will lead them to the Promised Land. They won’t realize that he is leading them to hell, until it is too late.
Civil Unrest – The Great Unraveling
Overthrow the effigy
The vast majority
Burning down the foreman of control
Silence is the enemy
Against your urgency
So rally up the demons of your soul
Know Your Enemy – Green Day
Strauss & Howe explained their view of how America was feeling in 1997. They were dead on. We are a country that has been rotting from within for decades.
America feels like it’s unraveling. Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within. The America of today feels worse, in its fundamentals, than the one many of us remember from youth, a society presided over by those of supposedly lesser consciousness. We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment.
Many Americans know we are on the wrong track but are so distracted by the circus like distractions of every day life, they choose not to think about it. It is likely that the 123 million eligible voters who chose not to vote in the 2008 Presidential election don’t even realize the country is on the wrong track. The sedated masses were easy to manipulate when unemployment was 4%. There are now 6 million more people unemployed today than just 16 months ago in November 2007. Another 2 to 3 million will lose their jobs in 2009. The government doesn’t count another 5 to 10 million people who are classified as out of the workforce, but would like to work. This means there will be 20 to 25 million people out of work by the end of this year. Unemployed people have a propensity to be angry. In the last few months there have been several mass murders committed by angry unemployed men. As the economic “solutions” rolled out by politicians and Federal Reserve bureaucrats lead to an inflationary depression similar to the Weimer Republic of the early 1930’s, civil unrest will rear its ugly head.
Doug Casey describes the likely scenario:
People believe they have little to lose, they’re eager to hang those they believe responsible for their problems, and they’ll listen to radical or violent proposals. We’re now just entering what will likely be the worst economic trough since the Industrial Revolution. A rioter is typically an angry person looking for vengeance because he blames someone else for his problem. So far, rioters seem to be directing their attention at governments. Correct target, of course, but they don’t have the rationale quite right. They’re not angry because governments inflated the currency, promoted fractional reserve banking, and nurtured all the cockamamie socialist programs that caused this crisis. Not at all; they rather liked all that. They’re angry only because their governments haven’t adequately protected them from the consequences of what they did. So as conditions worsen, we can expect governments worldwide to pull out absolutely all the stops to show they’re “doing something.” And round up scapegoats to satisfy the mob and divert anger from themselves. I fully expect civil unrest to spread everywhere, simply because the depression will spread everywhere. It will be worst in places that have been most overextended, most debt leveraged, most urban, and have the largest numbers of unemployed workers -- the U.S., Europe, and China.
The civil unrest is most likely to erupt among Hispanics and African Americans. The unemployment rate of Hispanics is 11.4% versus 5.0% in November 2007. It is doubtless far worse, as many Hispanics worked “under the table” in the housing industry. The unemployment rate of African Americans is 13.3%, the highest since 1993, and up from an all-time low of 7.0% in 2000. The urban areas of the United States are a powder keg, with automatic weapons available to anyone. Policemen are being slaughtered at a record pace. Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Drug lords are running the country. Its oil fields are in rapid decline and it will no longer be an exporter of oil within 5 years. The Mexican government depends on oil for 40% of its tax revenues. The collapse of Mexico’s government, extreme power of murderous drug lords, and worldwide depression will drive millions of poor towards the U.S. border. The anti-immigrant feelings in the U.S. continue to grow as more white Americans lose their jobs. This is an explosive combination that will eventually require military and National Guard intervention.
There are two other hot button issues which will increase the anxiety in this country. Guns and ammo are selling like hotcakes. The combination of apprehension that Obama and his Democratic majority will put restrictions on gun ownership and the severe economic downturn has led to an exorbitant increase in gun sales. Ruger has a $48 million backlog of guns on order. Many citizens in the Western states live by the motto: You can have my gun when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers. Any effort by the Obama administration to restrict gun ownership will be met with major resistance. The Tax Day Tea Parties revealed the other hot button issue for many Americans. When the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010 and Obama institutes his Cap & Trade energy tax, the economy will receive a double whammy. At that point the failed economic policies and higher taxes will lead to consternation and resentment throughout the land. The unending economic turmoil throughout the world will result in protests and anger in many countries. The more disturbing issue is how politicians will try to divert the attention of the masses through the use of an external threat.
War – Fingers of Instability
The insurgency will rise
When the bloods been sacrificed
Don't be blinded by the lies
In your eyes
Violence is an energy
From here to eternity
Violence is an energy
Silence is the enemy
So gimme gimme revolution
Know Your Enemy – Green Day
Back in 2006 John Mauldin wrote an article titled Fingers of Instability. It was based on a book written by Mark Buchanan called Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen. It examines chaos theory, complexity theory, and critical states. Physicists, using a computer model examined what takes place when sand is continuously piled up grain by grain. They were endeavoring to understand what makes the pile ultimately collapse. Buchanan described the experiment:
"Imagine peering down on the pile from above, and coloring it in according to its steepness. Where it is relatively flat and stable, color it green; where steep and, in avalanche terms, 'ready to go,' color it red. What do you see? They found that at the outset the pile looked mostly green, but that, as the pile grew, the green became infiltrated with ever more red. With more grains, the scattering of red danger spots grew until a dense skeleton of instability ran through the pile. Here then was a clue to its peculiar behavior: a grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots. If the red network was sparse, and all trouble spots were well isolated one from the other, then a single grain could have only limited repercussions. But when the red spots come to riddle the pile, the consequences of the next grain become fiendishly unpredictable. It might trigger only a few tumblings, or it might instead set off a cataclysmic chain reaction involving millions. The sand pile seemed to have configured itself into a hypersensitive and peculiarly unstable condition in which the next falling grain could trigger a response of any size whatsoever."
"In this simplified setting of the sand pile, the power law also points to something else: the surprising conclusion that even the greatest of events have no special or exceptional causes. After all, every avalanche large or small starts out the same way, when a single grain falls and makes the pile just slightly too steep at one point. What makes one avalanche much larger than another has nothing to do with its original cause, and nothing to do with some special situation in the pile just before it starts. Rather, it has to do with the perpetually unstable organization of the critical state, which makes it always possible for the next grain to trigger an avalanche of any size."
You may be wondering what sand has to do with war. The relevance is that a small seemingly minor incident could lead to a large world war.....
read the rest
All across the alien nation.
Where everything isn't meant to be okay.
American Idiot - Green Day
Strauss & Howe described the Prophet/Idealist generation as being born during a High, spending its rising adult years during an Awakening, spending midlife during an Unraveling, and spending old age in a Crisis. Prophetic leaders have been cerebral and principled, summoners of human sacrifice, wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform. Late in life, most prophets come to be revered as much for their words as for their deeds. The three previous crisis periods in U.S. history were dominated by the prophetic leadership of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt. George Bush has led us through the 1st half of this crisis. It is likely that Barack Obama will lead us through the 2nd half of the crisis. I don’t think George Bush will be revered for being cerebral or making inspiring speeches. He did wage a righteous war against terrorism. Barack Obama is cerebral and principled. He is waging a righteous war in Afghanistan, though he has never seen combat. He is already known for his inspiring speeches. Will he rise to the level of Lincoln?
George Bush and Barack Obama are both Baby Boomers. The oldest boomer is 63, the youngest 45. Boomers occupy the leadership positions in government, corporations, military, and educational institutions. Boomer leaders are cocky, aggressive, and quoting Doug Casey,
“quite willing to burn down the barn in order to destroy whatever rats they see.” George Bush was sure there was WMD in Iraq. He was sure that cutting taxes, sending out rebate checks, and letting banks regulate themselves was the path to prosperity. Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke were sure that TARP would save our financial system from collapse. Barack Obama was sure that if we didn’t pass his bloated stimulus bill, catastrophe awaited the country. Baby Boom leaders are always sure and often wrong. The masses are drawn to leaders who are sure of themselves. They want to believe that a wise man will lead them to the Promised Land. They won’t realize that he is leading them to hell, until it is too late.
Civil Unrest – The Great Unraveling
Overthrow the effigy
The vast majority
Burning down the foreman of control
Silence is the enemy
Against your urgency
So rally up the demons of your soul
Know Your Enemy – Green Day
Strauss & Howe explained their view of how America was feeling in 1997. They were dead on. We are a country that has been rotting from within for decades.
America feels like it’s unraveling. Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within. The America of today feels worse, in its fundamentals, than the one many of us remember from youth, a society presided over by those of supposedly lesser consciousness. We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment.
Many Americans know we are on the wrong track but are so distracted by the circus like distractions of every day life, they choose not to think about it. It is likely that the 123 million eligible voters who chose not to vote in the 2008 Presidential election don’t even realize the country is on the wrong track. The sedated masses were easy to manipulate when unemployment was 4%. There are now 6 million more people unemployed today than just 16 months ago in November 2007. Another 2 to 3 million will lose their jobs in 2009. The government doesn’t count another 5 to 10 million people who are classified as out of the workforce, but would like to work. This means there will be 20 to 25 million people out of work by the end of this year. Unemployed people have a propensity to be angry. In the last few months there have been several mass murders committed by angry unemployed men. As the economic “solutions” rolled out by politicians and Federal Reserve bureaucrats lead to an inflationary depression similar to the Weimer Republic of the early 1930’s, civil unrest will rear its ugly head.
Doug Casey describes the likely scenario:
People believe they have little to lose, they’re eager to hang those they believe responsible for their problems, and they’ll listen to radical or violent proposals. We’re now just entering what will likely be the worst economic trough since the Industrial Revolution. A rioter is typically an angry person looking for vengeance because he blames someone else for his problem. So far, rioters seem to be directing their attention at governments. Correct target, of course, but they don’t have the rationale quite right. They’re not angry because governments inflated the currency, promoted fractional reserve banking, and nurtured all the cockamamie socialist programs that caused this crisis. Not at all; they rather liked all that. They’re angry only because their governments haven’t adequately protected them from the consequences of what they did. So as conditions worsen, we can expect governments worldwide to pull out absolutely all the stops to show they’re “doing something.” And round up scapegoats to satisfy the mob and divert anger from themselves. I fully expect civil unrest to spread everywhere, simply because the depression will spread everywhere. It will be worst in places that have been most overextended, most debt leveraged, most urban, and have the largest numbers of unemployed workers -- the U.S., Europe, and China.
The civil unrest is most likely to erupt among Hispanics and African Americans. The unemployment rate of Hispanics is 11.4% versus 5.0% in November 2007. It is doubtless far worse, as many Hispanics worked “under the table” in the housing industry. The unemployment rate of African Americans is 13.3%, the highest since 1993, and up from an all-time low of 7.0% in 2000. The urban areas of the United States are a powder keg, with automatic weapons available to anyone. Policemen are being slaughtered at a record pace. Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Drug lords are running the country. Its oil fields are in rapid decline and it will no longer be an exporter of oil within 5 years. The Mexican government depends on oil for 40% of its tax revenues. The collapse of Mexico’s government, extreme power of murderous drug lords, and worldwide depression will drive millions of poor towards the U.S. border. The anti-immigrant feelings in the U.S. continue to grow as more white Americans lose their jobs. This is an explosive combination that will eventually require military and National Guard intervention.
There are two other hot button issues which will increase the anxiety in this country. Guns and ammo are selling like hotcakes. The combination of apprehension that Obama and his Democratic majority will put restrictions on gun ownership and the severe economic downturn has led to an exorbitant increase in gun sales. Ruger has a $48 million backlog of guns on order. Many citizens in the Western states live by the motto: You can have my gun when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers. Any effort by the Obama administration to restrict gun ownership will be met with major resistance. The Tax Day Tea Parties revealed the other hot button issue for many Americans. When the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010 and Obama institutes his Cap & Trade energy tax, the economy will receive a double whammy. At that point the failed economic policies and higher taxes will lead to consternation and resentment throughout the land. The unending economic turmoil throughout the world will result in protests and anger in many countries. The more disturbing issue is how politicians will try to divert the attention of the masses through the use of an external threat.
War – Fingers of Instability
The insurgency will rise
When the bloods been sacrificed
Don't be blinded by the lies
In your eyes
Violence is an energy
From here to eternity
Violence is an energy
Silence is the enemy
So gimme gimme revolution
Know Your Enemy – Green Day
Back in 2006 John Mauldin wrote an article titled Fingers of Instability. It was based on a book written by Mark Buchanan called Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen. It examines chaos theory, complexity theory, and critical states. Physicists, using a computer model examined what takes place when sand is continuously piled up grain by grain. They were endeavoring to understand what makes the pile ultimately collapse. Buchanan described the experiment:
"Imagine peering down on the pile from above, and coloring it in according to its steepness. Where it is relatively flat and stable, color it green; where steep and, in avalanche terms, 'ready to go,' color it red. What do you see? They found that at the outset the pile looked mostly green, but that, as the pile grew, the green became infiltrated with ever more red. With more grains, the scattering of red danger spots grew until a dense skeleton of instability ran through the pile. Here then was a clue to its peculiar behavior: a grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots. If the red network was sparse, and all trouble spots were well isolated one from the other, then a single grain could have only limited repercussions. But when the red spots come to riddle the pile, the consequences of the next grain become fiendishly unpredictable. It might trigger only a few tumblings, or it might instead set off a cataclysmic chain reaction involving millions. The sand pile seemed to have configured itself into a hypersensitive and peculiarly unstable condition in which the next falling grain could trigger a response of any size whatsoever."
"In this simplified setting of the sand pile, the power law also points to something else: the surprising conclusion that even the greatest of events have no special or exceptional causes. After all, every avalanche large or small starts out the same way, when a single grain falls and makes the pile just slightly too steep at one point. What makes one avalanche much larger than another has nothing to do with its original cause, and nothing to do with some special situation in the pile just before it starts. Rather, it has to do with the perpetually unstable organization of the critical state, which makes it always possible for the next grain to trigger an avalanche of any size."
You may be wondering what sand has to do with war. The relevance is that a small seemingly minor incident could lead to a large world war.....
read the rest
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