http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/martin-weiss/the-timing-breakthrough-of-the-century-revealed/comment-page-1/#comment-19211
I hope your high end services have improved. I'm skeptical of your web presence. This is why. In 2004 I subscribed to your Interest Rate Options advisory to make money on your expected spike in rates. It was $5000 dollars per annum, if I recall correctly, I got six months for 2500.
I staked $10000 and opened an account to trade US options.
The account was gone in three months. Nearly every trade was covered at a loss. Your vague general apology was noted but no refunds were offered.
I would say on that basis your all hype and no responsibility. You leveraged your credibility and wiped me out when I was a timing newbie.
How can you live with yourself without taking responsibility and take yourself seriously when you hired an idiot to run a timing service that was doomed from the start by way of his sloppy rather conventional trades that foundered on a bad premise and poor execution and then go on to make similar promises.
If you had offered a refund and a free turn with a high end timing service of yours with a track record of success, assuming one actually exists, I might have kept faith.
You leverage your cred and hype the news and claim to be for the little guy, but you just take the money and run, apparently, and rely on your massive addy budget for new suckers to arrive.
What else can I infer from my experience.
Martin Weiss, you cost me 15K in six months, it was genius..but it wasn't about timing.
What are you going to do about it?
Showing posts with label Martin Weiss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martin Weiss. Show all posts
1 June 2009
Rising U.S. bond yields may spark Credit Crisis II
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The global financial crisis may morph into a second, equally virulent phase where borrowing costs rise again, hobbling an embryonic economic recovery, debilitating cash-strapped banks, and punishing investors all over again.
Early warnings signs of this scenario include surging government bond yields, a slumping U.S. dollar, and the fading of the bear market rally in U.S. stocks.
Optimists hope that a fragile two-month rally in world stock markets, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields from record lows during the depths of the crisis in late 2008, and some less scary economic data all signal that a recovery is around the corner.
But gloomy analysts insist that thinking is delusional.
Once Credit Crisis Version 2.0 ramps up, foreign investors may punish the U.S. government for borrowing trillions of dollars too much by refusing to buy its debt until bond prices plunge to much cheaper levels.
The telling harbinger is benchmark Treasury note yields' surge to six-month highs around 3.75 percent this week, as investors began to balk at the record U.S. government borrowing requirement this year.
The U.S. Treasury plans to sell about $2 trillion in new debt this year to fund a $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit.
Heavy selling of U.S. dollar-denominated assets could trigger a full-blown currency crisis and usher in surging inflation, forcing mortgage rates and corporate bond yields up, undermining any rebound in economic activity.
"The financial crisis is a downward spiral with two twists," said George Feiger, chief executive of Contango Capital Advisors in Berkeley, California.
First came the banking crisis and a huge contraction of credit, starting in mid-2007 which resulted in the stock market panic of 2008 which triggered the deepest U.S. recession in at least two decades.
"Once you have got a recession you have good old-fashioned credit losses," Feiger said. "The second leg is now the consequences of the massive recession and it is just now working its way out," he said.
Investors, many of them foreigners who own a large chunk of the U.S. Treasury market, are steadily demanding higher yields.
The price of the historic rescues of banks, insurers, manufacturers, and securities markets, to prevent a complete collapse during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, has meant a record U.S. government borrowing requirement.
But by issuing so much debt, the United States risks repulsing a critical buyer: foreign central banks, who own more than a quarter of marketable U.S. Treasuries. China recently overtook Japan as the biggest such buyer.
"We are getting into that stage which I call 'the markets revenge'", said Martin Weiss, president of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida.
Weiss, known for his especially pessimistic views on the banking system and economy, recently published a book entitled: "The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide".
"The market attacked anyone who had the toxic assets," he said.
Now, foreign investors' primary target is the U.S. government because it has bought many of the tarnished securities from banks and some of the failing institutions itself, but the selloff will soon spread to all U.S. dollar-denominated assets, Weiss expects.
Selling could push up the 10-year Treasury note's yield to about 6.0 percent Weiss warns. For now, he urges investors to stash much of their savings in short term Treasury bills, which carry minimal interest rate risk.
Foreign investors are running out of patience with the U.S. government's debt issuance, he argued.
"What happened at the end of this month is the beginning of the end of that goodwill period," Weiss said. "There could be a major near-term selloff in the dollar."
This month, the euro has gained nearly 7.0 percent against the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury note's yield has surged to six-month highs around 3.75 percent, nearly doubling from its lowest level in 50 years of 2.04 percent seen last December.
Ultimately, corporate bond yields, although still at very wide yield spreads of more than four percentage points above Treasuries according to Merrill Lynch data, will also spike again, Weiss warned. The S&P 500 stock index may fall to 500 points in this next phase of the crisis he added, down from 911 points early on Friday, he said.
On the other hand, many economists reckon the U.S. government and Federal Reserve have averted a rerun of the Great Depression by swiftly orchestrating financial rescues and monetary and fiscal stimulus to offset sagging consumer spending.
Yet even as the U.S. economy and banking system struggle to recover from two years of turmoil, Europe's banks are even more debilitated, raising the threat of a second global systemic crisis spreading back across the Atlantic to the United States, some analysts fear.
"I think the most likely origins for a major crisis would be beyond our borders," said David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center in Mount Kisco, New York.
Early warnings signs of this scenario include surging government bond yields, a slumping U.S. dollar, and the fading of the bear market rally in U.S. stocks.
Optimists hope that a fragile two-month rally in world stock markets, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields from record lows during the depths of the crisis in late 2008, and some less scary economic data all signal that a recovery is around the corner.
But gloomy analysts insist that thinking is delusional.
Once Credit Crisis Version 2.0 ramps up, foreign investors may punish the U.S. government for borrowing trillions of dollars too much by refusing to buy its debt until bond prices plunge to much cheaper levels.
The telling harbinger is benchmark Treasury note yields' surge to six-month highs around 3.75 percent this week, as investors began to balk at the record U.S. government borrowing requirement this year.
The U.S. Treasury plans to sell about $2 trillion in new debt this year to fund a $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit.
Heavy selling of U.S. dollar-denominated assets could trigger a full-blown currency crisis and usher in surging inflation, forcing mortgage rates and corporate bond yields up, undermining any rebound in economic activity.
"The financial crisis is a downward spiral with two twists," said George Feiger, chief executive of Contango Capital Advisors in Berkeley, California.
First came the banking crisis and a huge contraction of credit, starting in mid-2007 which resulted in the stock market panic of 2008 which triggered the deepest U.S. recession in at least two decades.
"Once you have got a recession you have good old-fashioned credit losses," Feiger said. "The second leg is now the consequences of the massive recession and it is just now working its way out," he said.
Investors, many of them foreigners who own a large chunk of the U.S. Treasury market, are steadily demanding higher yields.
The price of the historic rescues of banks, insurers, manufacturers, and securities markets, to prevent a complete collapse during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, has meant a record U.S. government borrowing requirement.
But by issuing so much debt, the United States risks repulsing a critical buyer: foreign central banks, who own more than a quarter of marketable U.S. Treasuries. China recently overtook Japan as the biggest such buyer.
"We are getting into that stage which I call 'the markets revenge'", said Martin Weiss, president of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida.
Weiss, known for his especially pessimistic views on the banking system and economy, recently published a book entitled: "The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide".
"The market attacked anyone who had the toxic assets," he said.
Now, foreign investors' primary target is the U.S. government because it has bought many of the tarnished securities from banks and some of the failing institutions itself, but the selloff will soon spread to all U.S. dollar-denominated assets, Weiss expects.
Selling could push up the 10-year Treasury note's yield to about 6.0 percent Weiss warns. For now, he urges investors to stash much of their savings in short term Treasury bills, which carry minimal interest rate risk.
Foreign investors are running out of patience with the U.S. government's debt issuance, he argued.
"What happened at the end of this month is the beginning of the end of that goodwill period," Weiss said. "There could be a major near-term selloff in the dollar."
This month, the euro has gained nearly 7.0 percent against the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury note's yield has surged to six-month highs around 3.75 percent, nearly doubling from its lowest level in 50 years of 2.04 percent seen last December.
Ultimately, corporate bond yields, although still at very wide yield spreads of more than four percentage points above Treasuries according to Merrill Lynch data, will also spike again, Weiss warned. The S&P 500 stock index may fall to 500 points in this next phase of the crisis he added, down from 911 points early on Friday, he said.
On the other hand, many economists reckon the U.S. government and Federal Reserve have averted a rerun of the Great Depression by swiftly orchestrating financial rescues and monetary and fiscal stimulus to offset sagging consumer spending.
Yet even as the U.S. economy and banking system struggle to recover from two years of turmoil, Europe's banks are even more debilitated, raising the threat of a second global systemic crisis spreading back across the Atlantic to the United States, some analysts fear.
"I think the most likely origins for a major crisis would be beyond our borders," said David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center in Mount Kisco, New York.
21 April 2009
The "Bank analyst' Weiss on US banks ~ Origin of stress test talk
Just don't pay for any high or low end market timing services....he once took me for a ride...
But his advice seems sound here.......
New Data Topic of Audio Press Briefing JUPITER, Fla.--(Business Wire)-- Several of the nation`s largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,
Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, plus more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government
bailouts, according to Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D., president of Weiss Research, Inc., an independent research firm.
The analysis is based on Fourth Quarter 2008 data from TheStreet.Com and the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Several large institutions received
significant ratings downgrades from the prior quarter, including Citibank, downgraded from C- to D; Wells Fargo, downgraded from C- to D+; and SunTrust
Bank, downgraded from C- to D+.
To discuss the new data and his analysis, Dr. Weiss will conduct an audio press briefing tomorrow, as follows:
Date and time: Tuesday, April 7, 11 a.m., Eastern Time. Phone # to call: 1-866-228-9900; Overseas +1-719-359-4032. Conference name:
Weiss Participant passcode: 721451
In addition, Dr. Weiss will provide updated commentary of his white paper issued on March 19. Titled "Dangerous Unintended Consequences: How Banking
Bailouts, Buyouts and Nationalizations Can Only Prolong America`s Second Great Depression and Weaken Any Subsequent Recovery," the white paper names U.S.
banks and thrifts believed to be at risk of failure, using that data to demonstrate that the U.S. government greatly underestimates the scope of the debt
crisis, while overestimating its ability to effectively save troubled institutions without severe adverse consequences.
The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported, according to the white paper. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252
institutions with assets of $159 billion. The updated review by Weiss Research, however, shows that 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with
total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.
Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase,
Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.
At year end 2008, Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan
Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent, according to the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). In addition, in the fourth quarter, Goldman
Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital. Although the
banking authorities have not defined how much exposure is considered excessive, Weiss believes that, as a rule, bank exposure to any single risk category
should be limited to 25 percent of capital. Goldman Sachs has exceeded that limit by a factor of 42 to 1.
"Equally alarming," writes Dr. Weiss, "is the fourth quarter OCC data demonstrating that record bank losses are spreading to interest-rate derivatives.
Until now, bank derivatives losses have been limited almost exclusively to credit defaults swaps (CDS), which represent only 7.8 percent of the notional
value U.S. derivatives held by all U.S. banks. In the fourth quarter, although the CDS losses continued at a near-record pace, we also witnessed record
losses in the interest-rate sector, which represents 82 percent of the derivatives market: The nation`s banks lost $3.4 billion in interest-rate
derivatives, or more than seven times their worst previous quarterly loss in this category."
Dr. Weiss continues, "In the face of such enormous risks and losses it`s entirely unreasonable to expect the U.S. Government to offset them without
unacceptable damage to its own credit, credibility and borrowing power."
Dr. Weiss points to early signs that the credit of the U.S. Treasury may already be suffering some damage in the wake of government bailout programs such
as the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Federal Reserve`s recent $1.15 trillion commitment to purchase bonds, and the $1 trillion
Private-Public Investment Program (PPIP). For example, the cost of credit default swaps traded by international investors to insure against a future
default by the U.S. Treasury recently surged to 14 times its 2007 level; while, more recently, the price of the 30-year Treasury bonds has fallen by 24
points.
"The `too-big-to-fail` doctrine has failed," concludes Weiss. In its place, he recommends the following steps to build a firmer foundation for a future
recovery:
* Abandon the unrealistic goal of saving all failing financial institutions, focusing instead on the goal of rebuilding the economy`s foundation in
preparation for an eventual recovery. * Pro-actively downsize or shut down the weakest institutions no matter how large they may be; provide opportunities
for borderline institutions to rehabilitate themselves under a strict regulatory regime; and give well-capitalized, liquid and prudently-managed
institutions better opportunities to gain market share. * Seriously consider breaking up the weak megabanks, following the model of the Ma Bell breakup in
1984. * Build confidence in the banking system with better disclosure and transparency, including the public release of the confidential official ratings
on all banks called CAMELS (Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk). * Switch priorities from the
battles we can`t win to the war we can`t afford to lose, such as emergency assistance for the millions most severely victimized by a depression.
Due to the nation`s solid infrastructure and knowledge base, Weiss is optimistic the U.S. can survive a broader banking crisis and even a second great
depression, with good prospects for an eventual recovery, provided we make the right choices. Toward that goal, immediately following the audio press
briefing tomorrow, Dr. Weiss will launch a national grassroots campaign with an online video webinar for over 50,000 investors that have registered for the
event. The webinar takes place at 12 noon Eastern Time and the press is also invited to attend by registering at
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/DSG-MED/.
About Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
But his advice seems sound here.......
New Data Topic of Audio Press Briefing JUPITER, Fla.--(Business Wire)-- Several of the nation`s largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,
Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, plus more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government
bailouts, according to Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D., president of Weiss Research, Inc., an independent research firm.
The analysis is based on Fourth Quarter 2008 data from TheStreet.Com and the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Several large institutions received
significant ratings downgrades from the prior quarter, including Citibank, downgraded from C- to D; Wells Fargo, downgraded from C- to D+; and SunTrust
Bank, downgraded from C- to D+.
To discuss the new data and his analysis, Dr. Weiss will conduct an audio press briefing tomorrow, as follows:
Date and time: Tuesday, April 7, 11 a.m., Eastern Time. Phone # to call: 1-866-228-9900; Overseas +1-719-359-4032. Conference name:
Weiss Participant passcode: 721451
In addition, Dr. Weiss will provide updated commentary of his white paper issued on March 19. Titled "Dangerous Unintended Consequences: How Banking
Bailouts, Buyouts and Nationalizations Can Only Prolong America`s Second Great Depression and Weaken Any Subsequent Recovery," the white paper names U.S.
banks and thrifts believed to be at risk of failure, using that data to demonstrate that the U.S. government greatly underestimates the scope of the debt
crisis, while overestimating its ability to effectively save troubled institutions without severe adverse consequences.
The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported, according to the white paper. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252
institutions with assets of $159 billion. The updated review by Weiss Research, however, shows that 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with
total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.
Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase,
Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.
At year end 2008, Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan
Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent, according to the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). In addition, in the fourth quarter, Goldman
Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital. Although the
banking authorities have not defined how much exposure is considered excessive, Weiss believes that, as a rule, bank exposure to any single risk category
should be limited to 25 percent of capital. Goldman Sachs has exceeded that limit by a factor of 42 to 1.
"Equally alarming," writes Dr. Weiss, "is the fourth quarter OCC data demonstrating that record bank losses are spreading to interest-rate derivatives.
Until now, bank derivatives losses have been limited almost exclusively to credit defaults swaps (CDS), which represent only 7.8 percent of the notional
value U.S. derivatives held by all U.S. banks. In the fourth quarter, although the CDS losses continued at a near-record pace, we also witnessed record
losses in the interest-rate sector, which represents 82 percent of the derivatives market: The nation`s banks lost $3.4 billion in interest-rate
derivatives, or more than seven times their worst previous quarterly loss in this category."
Dr. Weiss continues, "In the face of such enormous risks and losses it`s entirely unreasonable to expect the U.S. Government to offset them without
unacceptable damage to its own credit, credibility and borrowing power."
Dr. Weiss points to early signs that the credit of the U.S. Treasury may already be suffering some damage in the wake of government bailout programs such
as the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Federal Reserve`s recent $1.15 trillion commitment to purchase bonds, and the $1 trillion
Private-Public Investment Program (PPIP). For example, the cost of credit default swaps traded by international investors to insure against a future
default by the U.S. Treasury recently surged to 14 times its 2007 level; while, more recently, the price of the 30-year Treasury bonds has fallen by 24
points.
"The `too-big-to-fail` doctrine has failed," concludes Weiss. In its place, he recommends the following steps to build a firmer foundation for a future
recovery:
* Abandon the unrealistic goal of saving all failing financial institutions, focusing instead on the goal of rebuilding the economy`s foundation in
preparation for an eventual recovery. * Pro-actively downsize or shut down the weakest institutions no matter how large they may be; provide opportunities
for borderline institutions to rehabilitate themselves under a strict regulatory regime; and give well-capitalized, liquid and prudently-managed
institutions better opportunities to gain market share. * Seriously consider breaking up the weak megabanks, following the model of the Ma Bell breakup in
1984. * Build confidence in the banking system with better disclosure and transparency, including the public release of the confidential official ratings
on all banks called CAMELS (Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk). * Switch priorities from the
battles we can`t win to the war we can`t afford to lose, such as emergency assistance for the millions most severely victimized by a depression.
Due to the nation`s solid infrastructure and knowledge base, Weiss is optimistic the U.S. can survive a broader banking crisis and even a second great
depression, with good prospects for an eventual recovery, provided we make the right choices. Toward that goal, immediately following the audio press
briefing tomorrow, Dr. Weiss will launch a national grassroots campaign with an online video webinar for over 50,000 investors that have registered for the
event. The webinar takes place at 12 noon Eastern Time and the press is also invited to attend by registering at
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/DSG-MED/.
About Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
18 December 2008
Martin Weiss finally acknowledges Deflation
Just before hyperinflation strikes in the US. And he is ready to sell you a way to get rick quick because of it...
"Nearly 40,000 concerned investors registered to get answers to protect and grow their wealth in this disturbing new deflationary environment, and “Thank You” e-mails are already flooding in from across America and around the world.
The timing for this emergency briefing couldn’t have been better. Just yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that — just as we’ve warned — deflation now has the U.S. economy in its icy grip:
Its CPI report revealed consumer prices plunged by a bone-chilling 1.7% in November alone. If it continued at that pace for a year, it would be a 20% deflation — fully twice the plunge in consumer prices we saw during The Great Depression nearly 80 years ago!
No wonder Fed Chief Bernanke panicked. No wonder he slashed interest rates to a range between .25% and ZERO! But even Bernanke’s desperation play doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of ending this deflationary spiral.
The reason: Bernanke is addressing the wrong problem!
The fact is, we didn’t get into this mess because interest rates were too high. Nor are we experiencing a debt crisis because of too FEW debts! Clearly, we got into this mess because everyone — from banks to companies to consumers — have too MUCH debt and are now scared to death, cancelling purchases, hoarding dollars like there’s no tomorrow.
Here’s the key: The cheap money the Fed is providing can buy some things. But it cannot buy CONFIDENCE! To restore confidence takes a long, LONG time. And without it, banks won’t resume lending. Nor will consumers or businesses resume spending.
Deflation is a LONG-TERM reality in the U.S.! Therefore, it’s more crucial than ever that you get the answers you need to survive and THRIVE in the year ahead.
But events are moving so quickly, we can’t leave the video of today’s event up for long. So the ONLY way I can guarantee you’ll have the opportunity to watch it is for you to click this link now!
In this historic emergency briefing, we did everything in our power to help you protect your income, savings, investments and retirement with frank, objective, timely and actionable analysis and recommendations — the answers you need most right now."
When I was an investment newbie, I sent Martin Weiss 2.5K for a six months subscription to an "Interest Rate Advisory". It turned out that Martin has hired some
"expert" who agreed with his thesis at the time, interest rates were going through the roof. Needless to say my over 10K was gone is two months. Did Martin apologise, admit he was wrong and refund the sub. No, he apoligised and moved on to the next "service". That is the mystery of Martin, he makes a compelling fear based case, talks about his fathers experience and then leverages the lot with an expensive offering and then Leaves you to go hang.
Avoid this man like the plague.
"Nearly 40,000 concerned investors registered to get answers to protect and grow their wealth in this disturbing new deflationary environment, and “Thank You” e-mails are already flooding in from across America and around the world.
The timing for this emergency briefing couldn’t have been better. Just yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that — just as we’ve warned — deflation now has the U.S. economy in its icy grip:
Its CPI report revealed consumer prices plunged by a bone-chilling 1.7% in November alone. If it continued at that pace for a year, it would be a 20% deflation — fully twice the plunge in consumer prices we saw during The Great Depression nearly 80 years ago!
No wonder Fed Chief Bernanke panicked. No wonder he slashed interest rates to a range between .25% and ZERO! But even Bernanke’s desperation play doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of ending this deflationary spiral.
The reason: Bernanke is addressing the wrong problem!
The fact is, we didn’t get into this mess because interest rates were too high. Nor are we experiencing a debt crisis because of too FEW debts! Clearly, we got into this mess because everyone — from banks to companies to consumers — have too MUCH debt and are now scared to death, cancelling purchases, hoarding dollars like there’s no tomorrow.
Here’s the key: The cheap money the Fed is providing can buy some things. But it cannot buy CONFIDENCE! To restore confidence takes a long, LONG time. And without it, banks won’t resume lending. Nor will consumers or businesses resume spending.
Deflation is a LONG-TERM reality in the U.S.! Therefore, it’s more crucial than ever that you get the answers you need to survive and THRIVE in the year ahead.
But events are moving so quickly, we can’t leave the video of today’s event up for long. So the ONLY way I can guarantee you’ll have the opportunity to watch it is for you to click this link now!
In this historic emergency briefing, we did everything in our power to help you protect your income, savings, investments and retirement with frank, objective, timely and actionable analysis and recommendations — the answers you need most right now."
When I was an investment newbie, I sent Martin Weiss 2.5K for a six months subscription to an "Interest Rate Advisory". It turned out that Martin has hired some
"expert" who agreed with his thesis at the time, interest rates were going through the roof. Needless to say my over 10K was gone is two months. Did Martin apologise, admit he was wrong and refund the sub. No, he apoligised and moved on to the next "service". That is the mystery of Martin, he makes a compelling fear based case, talks about his fathers experience and then leverages the lot with an expensive offering and then Leaves you to go hang.
Avoid this man like the plague.
2 December 2008
The Enigma of Martin Weiss
Martin Weiss says that: After more than six decades of growth, America is sinking into its Second Great Depression of modern times. The place is every home, business, and community.
Starting Now: America's Second Great Depression
"America's Second Great Depression is not a typical 20th century recession that happens to strike a bit harder or linger somewhat longer. America's Second Great Depression is the probable consequence of a great housing bust, a massive mortgage meltdown and the biggest financial crisis in history.
It promises to bring the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced.
It challenges the smartest minds in Washington, defies the deepest pockets on Wall Street and threatens to rip through our life with the force of a Cat-5 hurricane. And yet, among all those making the decisions that could forever change our future, no one has personal experience with a similar episode...
How long could the depression last? How much further can home prices fall? How far down will the stock market go? Will it be as bad as the 1930s? At this juncture, you can count on your fingers the number of serious analysts who believe that's even a remote possibility. And yet, stranger things have already happened, including the largest bank and insurance company collapses of all time.
Trouble is, there are no historical precedents for what's happening in this era. Any forecasts I make today, no matter how well researched, are not nearly as valuable as the awareness you will have of current events as they unfold in real time...
footnote:
My father, J. Irving Weiss, one of the few economists who not only advised investors during the First Great Depression, but actually predicted it. Dad was so proud of that unusual feat, he began telling me stories about it when I was just five years old. Vicariously, I lived through the Roaring Twenties, the Crash of ‘29, the massive bank failures of the 1930s, and the many years of human suffering that ensued.
Dad explains it this way:
In the 1930s, at each step down the slippery slope of the market's decline, Washington would periodically announce some new initiative to turn things around. President Hoover would give a new pep talk promising ‘prosperity around the corner.' And often, the Dow staged dramatic rallies — up 30% on the first round, 48% on the second, 23% on the third, and more. Each time, I sought to use the rallies as selling opportunities. I persuaded more of my clients to get rid of their stocks and pile up cash. I even told them to take their money out of shaky banks.
On the surface, it might have appeared that just sitting out the crisis got you nowhere. Actually, though, it was a great strategy for building wealth. Prices were falling — on homes, on automobiles, on almost everything. So the more prices fell, the more your money was worth. Just by saving money, stashing the cash, keeping your job and going about your daily life, you were building wealth. You didn't have to know about investing. All you needed to figure out was how to protect yourself from the bad times. Then, when we hit rock bottom — that was the time to start buying real estate, stocks or bonds.
The end of the entire decline came with two events: The inauguration of our new president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the national banking holiday he declared on his third day in office. But after three years of panics and crashes, most people greeted those events with dread. They thought it would be the beginning of another, even steeper slide. Some people even said it was the final chapter of capitalism itself. As it turned out, that was precisely the right time to pick up some of the greatest bargains of the century and make a lot of money.
RE: He is so enigmatic... Thomas. NEW 12/1/2008 9:40:11 AM
somehow mixing infomercial with what appears to be incisive commentary.
report post to moderator
RE: I hate that man aussiebear NEW 12/1/2008 2:47:54 PM
Last to the party. I have spoken to other people who he has burned with high end services that don't deliver. He lost me 10K in three months in 2004 and I had to pay him 2.5K for the privledge. The doco was all tacky "welcome to the party bigshot", Vinyl folders, Gold lettering, No responsibility. No engagement. You live and learn!
Always invoking dad. Yuk!
Starting Now: America's Second Great Depression
"America's Second Great Depression is not a typical 20th century recession that happens to strike a bit harder or linger somewhat longer. America's Second Great Depression is the probable consequence of a great housing bust, a massive mortgage meltdown and the biggest financial crisis in history.
It promises to bring the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced.
It challenges the smartest minds in Washington, defies the deepest pockets on Wall Street and threatens to rip through our life with the force of a Cat-5 hurricane. And yet, among all those making the decisions that could forever change our future, no one has personal experience with a similar episode...
How long could the depression last? How much further can home prices fall? How far down will the stock market go? Will it be as bad as the 1930s? At this juncture, you can count on your fingers the number of serious analysts who believe that's even a remote possibility. And yet, stranger things have already happened, including the largest bank and insurance company collapses of all time.
Trouble is, there are no historical precedents for what's happening in this era. Any forecasts I make today, no matter how well researched, are not nearly as valuable as the awareness you will have of current events as they unfold in real time...
footnote:
My father, J. Irving Weiss, one of the few economists who not only advised investors during the First Great Depression, but actually predicted it. Dad was so proud of that unusual feat, he began telling me stories about it when I was just five years old. Vicariously, I lived through the Roaring Twenties, the Crash of ‘29, the massive bank failures of the 1930s, and the many years of human suffering that ensued.
Dad explains it this way:
In the 1930s, at each step down the slippery slope of the market's decline, Washington would periodically announce some new initiative to turn things around. President Hoover would give a new pep talk promising ‘prosperity around the corner.' And often, the Dow staged dramatic rallies — up 30% on the first round, 48% on the second, 23% on the third, and more. Each time, I sought to use the rallies as selling opportunities. I persuaded more of my clients to get rid of their stocks and pile up cash. I even told them to take their money out of shaky banks.
On the surface, it might have appeared that just sitting out the crisis got you nowhere. Actually, though, it was a great strategy for building wealth. Prices were falling — on homes, on automobiles, on almost everything. So the more prices fell, the more your money was worth. Just by saving money, stashing the cash, keeping your job and going about your daily life, you were building wealth. You didn't have to know about investing. All you needed to figure out was how to protect yourself from the bad times. Then, when we hit rock bottom — that was the time to start buying real estate, stocks or bonds.
The end of the entire decline came with two events: The inauguration of our new president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the national banking holiday he declared on his third day in office. But after three years of panics and crashes, most people greeted those events with dread. They thought it would be the beginning of another, even steeper slide. Some people even said it was the final chapter of capitalism itself. As it turned out, that was precisely the right time to pick up some of the greatest bargains of the century and make a lot of money.
RE: He is so enigmatic... Thomas. NEW 12/1/2008 9:40:11 AM
somehow mixing infomercial with what appears to be incisive commentary.
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RE: I hate that man aussiebear NEW 12/1/2008 2:47:54 PM
Last to the party. I have spoken to other people who he has burned with high end services that don't deliver. He lost me 10K in three months in 2004 and I had to pay him 2.5K for the privledge. The doco was all tacky "welcome to the party bigshot", Vinyl folders, Gold lettering, No responsibility. No engagement. You live and learn!
Always invoking dad. Yuk!
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