2 December 2008

The Enigma of Martin Weiss

Martin Weiss says that: After more than six decades of growth, America is sinking into its Second Great Depression of modern times. The place is every home, business, and community.

Starting Now: America's Second Great Depression

"America's Second Great Depression is not a typical 20th century recession that happens to strike a bit harder or linger somewhat longer. America's Second Great Depression is the probable consequence of a great housing bust, a massive mortgage meltdown and the biggest financial crisis in history.

It promises to bring the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced.

It challenges the smartest minds in Washington, defies the deepest pockets on Wall Street and threatens to rip through our life with the force of a Cat-5 hurricane. And yet, among all those making the decisions that could forever change our future, no one has personal experience with a similar episode...

How long could the depression last? How much further can home prices fall? How far down will the stock market go? Will it be as bad as the 1930s? At this juncture, you can count on your fingers the number of serious analysts who believe that's even a remote possibility. And yet, stranger things have already happened, including the largest bank and insurance company collapses of all time.

Trouble is, there are no historical precedents for what's happening in this era. Any forecasts I make today, no matter how well researched, are not nearly as valuable as the awareness you will have of current events as they unfold in real time...


My father, J. Irving Weiss, one of the few economists who not only advised investors during the First Great Depression, but actually predicted it. Dad was so proud of that unusual feat, he began telling me stories about it when I was just five years old. Vicariously, I lived through the Roaring Twenties, the Crash of ‘29, the massive bank failures of the 1930s, and the many years of human suffering that ensued.

Dad explains it this way:

In the 1930s, at each step down the slippery slope of the market's decline, Washington would periodically announce some new initiative to turn things around. President Hoover would give a new pep talk promising ‘prosperity around the corner.' And often, the Dow staged dramatic rallies — up 30% on the first round, 48% on the second, 23% on the third, and more. Each time, I sought to use the rallies as selling opportunities. I persuaded more of my clients to get rid of their stocks and pile up cash. I even told them to take their money out of shaky banks.

On the surface, it might have appeared that just sitting out the crisis got you nowhere. Actually, though, it was a great strategy for building wealth. Prices were falling — on homes, on automobiles, on almost everything. So the more prices fell, the more your money was worth. Just by saving money, stashing the cash, keeping your job and going about your daily life, you were building wealth. You didn't have to know about investing. All you needed to figure out was how to protect yourself from the bad times. Then, when we hit rock bottom — that was the time to start buying real estate, stocks or bonds.

The end of the entire decline came with two events: The inauguration of our new president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the national banking holiday he declared on his third day in office. But after three years of panics and crashes, most people greeted those events with dread. They thought it would be the beginning of another, even steeper slide. Some people even said it was the final chapter of capitalism itself. As it turned out, that was precisely the right time to pick up some of the greatest bargains of the century and make a lot of money.

RE: He is so enigmatic... Thomas. NEW 12/1/2008 9:40:11 AM
somehow mixing infomercial with what appears to be incisive commentary.
report post to moderator

RE: I hate that man aussiebear NEW 12/1/2008 2:47:54 PM
Last to the party. I have spoken to other people who he has burned with high end services that don't deliver. He lost me 10K in three months in 2004 and I had to pay him 2.5K for the privledge. The doco was all tacky "welcome to the party bigshot", Vinyl folders, Gold lettering, No responsibility. No engagement. You live and learn!

Always invoking dad. Yuk!

No comments: