Using exciting new research developed from years of hands-on business experience, Harry S. Dent, Jr. offers a refreshingly positive and understandable view of the economic future. As a best selling author on economics, Mr. Dent is the developer of The Dent Method - an economic forecasting approach based on changes in demographic trends.
In all of his past books since 1989, Dent saw an end to the Baby Boom spending cycle around the end of this decade.
In his new book, The Great Depression Ahead, (Free Press, 2009), Harry Dent outlines how this next great downturn is likely to unfold in three stages, with an interim boom stage between 2012 and 2017 before the long-term slowdown finally turns into the next global boom in the early 2020s. In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, Mr. Dent stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated “Boom” of the 1990s. Today he continues to educate audiences about his predictions for the next and possibly last great bull market, from late 2005 into early to mid 2010. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). In his latest book, The Next Great Bubble Boom, he offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades and explains how fundamental trends suggest strong growth ahead, followed by a longer-term economic contraction. Mr. Dent also publishes the HS Dent Forecast newsletter, which offers current analysis of economic, and financial market trends.
Mr. Dent received his MBA from Harvard Business School, where he was a Baker Scholar and was elected to the Century Club for leadership excellence. Since 1988 he has been speaking to executives, financial advisors and investors around the world. He has appeared on “Good Morning America”, PBS, CNBC, CNN/FN, and has been featured in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Success, US News and World Report, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, American Demographics and Omni.
While at Bain & Company he worked as a consultant with several Fortune 100 companies. He has also been CEO of several entrepreneurial growth companies and an investor in new ventures. A frequent speaker on economic trends, Mr. Dent educates clients and partners on The Dent Method and provides strategic vision for asset allocation and investment selection.
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Showing posts with label dent. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dent. Show all posts
27 September 2009
21 June 2009
Worse to come for Australian economy, says Harry Dent
AUSTRALIA'S sharemarket will halve in value, house prices will slump as much as 40 per cent and unemployment will climb to 10 per cent.
That's the bold prediction from economic forecaster Harry Dent, who says a bigger crash is ahead for the global economy within the next two years.
And while Australia's strong financial system, links to China and young working population have cushioned the nation from the economic turmoil so far, Mr Dent says smart investors are cashing up in preparation for "the Mother of all depressions".
"When you have to deleverage a major bubble in stocks and housing and commodities . . . it doesn't just get over with in one year with a nice stimulus program," he says.
Mr Dent, who predicted Japan's 1990s recession and the present economic crisis, yesterday began an Australian speaking tour in Brisbane.
He says a "perfect storm" is brewing where a peak in spending by baby boomers will collide with the global commodity bubble to "leave behind the next great crash".
Although Australia's All Ordinaries Index may peak at between 4500 and 5000 points by the end of this year, he says a crash in about 2011 will see it slump to about 2000 points.
He says our house prices are "among the most overvalued in the world" and will backtrack by as much as 40 per cent while unemployment – now at 5.7 per cent – will hit double digits.
"I would say Australia is not paying close enough attention to the worldwide housing bubble and banking crisis," he says.
Mr Dent scoffs at a BIS Shrapnel report, issued this week, that said home values would rise by as much as 20 per cent over the next three years.
"Look at Japan to see what happens when a generational trend finally slows your economy and a housing bubble bursts. Housing peaked in 1991 in Japan and is still down over 60 per cent from the peak 18 years later."
He believes the next boom will begin to unfold in 2023, when India will take over from China as the world's growth powerhouse.
"If I was Australian businesses and government I'd say, 'OK, China's our best customer now but we need to be cultivating India'," Mr Dent says.
"India is the one large country – that isn't dependent on just commodity cycles for exports – that could grow dramatically and urbanise."
He says India's economic strength will be underpinned by its youthful population – something that will also help make Australia one of the most resilient developed economies throughout the next two decades.
Most of the affluent world is not having enough children to support their ageing population, he says.
Japan has the oldest population in the world, followed by Italy.
However, Australia's immigration policy has ensured the local economy has stayed refreshed by young, skilled workers from overseas, helping drive innovation to "take the economy to new heights".
"Your demographics do not turn down nearly as much as Europe and the United States and Japan's did and your banking system didn't go nuts," Mr Dent says. "You will fare better but you won't come out of this unscathed."
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25660536-3122,00.html
That's the bold prediction from economic forecaster Harry Dent, who says a bigger crash is ahead for the global economy within the next two years.
And while Australia's strong financial system, links to China and young working population have cushioned the nation from the economic turmoil so far, Mr Dent says smart investors are cashing up in preparation for "the Mother of all depressions".
"When you have to deleverage a major bubble in stocks and housing and commodities . . . it doesn't just get over with in one year with a nice stimulus program," he says.
Mr Dent, who predicted Japan's 1990s recession and the present economic crisis, yesterday began an Australian speaking tour in Brisbane.
He says a "perfect storm" is brewing where a peak in spending by baby boomers will collide with the global commodity bubble to "leave behind the next great crash".
Although Australia's All Ordinaries Index may peak at between 4500 and 5000 points by the end of this year, he says a crash in about 2011 will see it slump to about 2000 points.
He says our house prices are "among the most overvalued in the world" and will backtrack by as much as 40 per cent while unemployment – now at 5.7 per cent – will hit double digits.
"I would say Australia is not paying close enough attention to the worldwide housing bubble and banking crisis," he says.
Mr Dent scoffs at a BIS Shrapnel report, issued this week, that said home values would rise by as much as 20 per cent over the next three years.
"Look at Japan to see what happens when a generational trend finally slows your economy and a housing bubble bursts. Housing peaked in 1991 in Japan and is still down over 60 per cent from the peak 18 years later."
He believes the next boom will begin to unfold in 2023, when India will take over from China as the world's growth powerhouse.
"If I was Australian businesses and government I'd say, 'OK, China's our best customer now but we need to be cultivating India'," Mr Dent says.
"India is the one large country – that isn't dependent on just commodity cycles for exports – that could grow dramatically and urbanise."
He says India's economic strength will be underpinned by its youthful population – something that will also help make Australia one of the most resilient developed economies throughout the next two decades.
Most of the affluent world is not having enough children to support their ageing population, he says.
Japan has the oldest population in the world, followed by Italy.
However, Australia's immigration policy has ensured the local economy has stayed refreshed by young, skilled workers from overseas, helping drive innovation to "take the economy to new heights".
"Your demographics do not turn down nearly as much as Europe and the United States and Japan's did and your banking system didn't go nuts," Mr Dent says. "You will fare better but you won't come out of this unscathed."
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25660536-3122,00.html
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