19 April 2006
recession has always followed a peak in US
Best of Lance L. Lewis: "But at some point, as the dollar continues to weaken and the bond market continues to come under pressure, there’s going to be an inflection point, where people suddenly realize that it’s not 1995. At that point, it should begin to dawn on people that the market is the one pushing up long-term interest rates, not the Fed. As Fed tries to pause, and the dollar weakens even more. Foreigners will continue to back away from US bonds. Rising long-term interest rates will put even more pressure on the US housing bubble-driven economy, which is going to put even more pressure on the dollar. Put a summation sign under all that, and you get a nasty recession and much lower stock prices. Recall (as we’ve noted before) that a recession has always followed a peak in US residential real estate investment since WWII. "