24 December 2006
BitTorrent Sites Compared
Ten Most Used BitTorrent Sites Compared: "I was rather surprised with these results, BTJunkie has nearly double the amount of torrents as the next leading competitor. The reason for such the dramatic increase is that they index both private and public trackers. Keep in mind that this benchmark is not very reliable because these sites all have different removal policies, making the quality of these numbers range"
14 December 2006
Gold's rise points to inflation
Gold's rise points to inflation: "The real annual inflation rate is closer to 8% than the 2% or 3% governments claim, a prominent U.S. economist said yesterday.
David Ranson, president of Boston-based H. C. Wainwright & Co. Economics Inc., defines inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of a national currency. He prefers that definition to flawed ones like the rising cost of living or increasing labour costs.
Official government-massaged measures such as the consumer price index (CPI) do not detect the onset of inflation as quickly as financial markets, he says. The latter indicate 'current inflation is much higher than policymakers realize and is still accelerating.'"
David Ranson, president of Boston-based H. C. Wainwright & Co. Economics Inc., defines inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of a national currency. He prefers that definition to flawed ones like the rising cost of living or increasing labour costs.
Official government-massaged measures such as the consumer price index (CPI) do not detect the onset of inflation as quickly as financial markets, he says. The latter indicate 'current inflation is much higher than policymakers realize and is still accelerating.'"
Eaton Vance manager: Markets poised for upset | Industry Summits | Reuters.com
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Financial markets are vulnerable to a significant correction in the next 12 months that might be triggered by an event in the derivatives markets, a well-known municipal bond manager said on Tuesday.
'I will be very surprised if we don't get an accident in the next months,' Thomas Metzold, who invests roughly $4.5 billion in the Eaton Vance National Municipals Fund, told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
'Whether it is in the credit default swap market or a leveraged buyout scenario, there is going to be a major default and all this liquidity that is out there can dry up pretty quickly,' Metzold said.
Looking back to 1998 when hedge fund Long Term Capital Management collapsed, Metzold said the biggest problem was that LTCM had so much exposure to counterparties that none of them knew how much the others had. 'And it all came tumbling,' he said."
'I will be very surprised if we don't get an accident in the next months,' Thomas Metzold, who invests roughly $4.5 billion in the Eaton Vance National Municipals Fund, told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
'Whether it is in the credit default swap market or a leveraged buyout scenario, there is going to be a major default and all this liquidity that is out there can dry up pretty quickly,' Metzold said.
Looking back to 1998 when hedge fund Long Term Capital Management collapsed, Metzold said the biggest problem was that LTCM had so much exposure to counterparties that none of them knew how much the others had. 'And it all came tumbling,' he said."
10 December 2006
A Brief, Superficial, and Arbitrary History of Property-Price Collapses
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "The Anderson Forecast team at UCLA might restore one’s hope that academic economists fulfill a productive function. Having disparaged the California housing boom through its ascent, a springtime presentation by one of its economists predicted the swoon that has come to pass. Alas, he stumbled. Asked if a real estate crash was in store, he reverted to form: Southern California is in no way comparable to such one-industry towns as Houston, and besides, California had never suffered a real estate meltdown. On the first point, with 2% of adults in California now proudly waving real estate licenses to sell, houses to California today may be as dominant a force as oil to Houston in the 1980s. On the second point, one of the worst real estate debacles in the history of the United States occurred on the ground where he stood."
1 December 2006
The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction! | Dr. Marc Faber
The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction! | Dr. Marc Faber: "In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. "
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. "
21 November 2006
Raymond James - Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut
Raymond James - Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut: "“’My solution to the current market,’ the Great Winfield said. ‘Kids. This is a kids’ market. This is Billy the Kid, Johnny the Kid, and Sheldon the Kid.’
‘Aren’t they cute?’ the Great Winfield asked. ‘Aren’t they fuzzy? Look at them, like teddy bears. It’s their market. I have taken them on for the duration.’
‘I give them a little stake, they find the stocks, and we split the profits,’ he said. ‘Billy the Kid here started with five thousand dollars and has run it up over half a million in the last six months.’ ‘Wow!’ I said. I asked Billy the Kid how he did it.
‘Computer leasing stocks, sir!’ he said, like a cadet being quizzed by an upper classman. ‘The need for computers is practically infinite,’ said Billy the Kid. ‘Leasing has proved the only way to sell them, and computer companies themselves do not have the capital. Therefore, earnings will be up a hundred percent this year, will double next year, and will double again the year after. The surface has barely been scratched. The rise has scarcely begun.’
‘Look at the skepticism on the face of this dirty old man,’ said the Great Winfield, pointing at me. ‘Look at him, framing questions about depreciation, about how fast these computers are written off. I know what he’s going to ask. He’s going to ask what makes a finance company worth fifty times earnings. Right?’ ‘Right,’ I admitted."
‘Aren’t they cute?’ the Great Winfield asked. ‘Aren’t they fuzzy? Look at them, like teddy bears. It’s their market. I have taken them on for the duration.’
‘I give them a little stake, they find the stocks, and we split the profits,’ he said. ‘Billy the Kid here started with five thousand dollars and has run it up over half a million in the last six months.’ ‘Wow!’ I said. I asked Billy the Kid how he did it.
‘Computer leasing stocks, sir!’ he said, like a cadet being quizzed by an upper classman. ‘The need for computers is practically infinite,’ said Billy the Kid. ‘Leasing has proved the only way to sell them, and computer companies themselves do not have the capital. Therefore, earnings will be up a hundred percent this year, will double next year, and will double again the year after. The surface has barely been scratched. The rise has scarcely begun.’
‘Look at the skepticism on the face of this dirty old man,’ said the Great Winfield, pointing at me. ‘Look at him, framing questions about depreciation, about how fast these computers are written off. I know what he’s going to ask. He’s going to ask what makes a finance company worth fifty times earnings. Right?’ ‘Right,’ I admitted."
9 November 2006
Consumer credit down by most since April 1992 - MarketWatch
Consumer credit down by most since April 1992 - MarketWatch: "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer credit outstanding fell by the biggest amount since April 1992 in September as households took out fewer loans for items like automobiles and boats, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday.
Total consumer credit fell by $1.20 billion in September, or by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.61%, to $2.366 trillion, the Fed said.
In April 1992, outstanding consumer credit fell by $1.78 billion, according to the Fed.
The decline was unexpected. Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting consumer credit to grow by $5.4 billion in September. See Economic Calendar.
Most of the decline was in so-called nonrevolving credit, like loans for cars and boats. Nonrevolving credit fell by $4.05 billion, or by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.21%, to $1.50 billion. "
Total consumer credit fell by $1.20 billion in September, or by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.61%, to $2.366 trillion, the Fed said.
In April 1992, outstanding consumer credit fell by $1.78 billion, according to the Fed.
The decline was unexpected. Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting consumer credit to grow by $5.4 billion in September. See Economic Calendar.
Most of the decline was in so-called nonrevolving credit, like loans for cars and boats. Nonrevolving credit fell by $4.05 billion, or by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.21%, to $1.50 billion. "
21 October 2006
The alternative engine
Asia and the world economy | The alternative engine | Economist.com: "AMERICAN consumers have been one of the main engines of global growth for the past decade. But now, as America's housing boom threatens to turn into a bust, many forecasters expect household spending to stall. A few even worry that America could come perilously close to a recession in 2007. Previous American downturns have usually dragged the rest of the world economy down, too. Yet this time its fate will depend largely upon whether China and the other Asian economies can decouple from the slowing American locomotive.
According to conventional wisdom, American consumers have single-handedly kept the world economy chugging along, whereas cautious Europeans and Asians have preferred to save. Yet the importance of America's role in global growth is often exaggerated. During the past five years America has accounted for only 13% of global real GDP growth, using purchasing-power parity (PPP) weights."
According to conventional wisdom, American consumers have single-handedly kept the world economy chugging along, whereas cautious Europeans and Asians have preferred to save. Yet the importance of America's role in global growth is often exaggerated. During the past five years America has accounted for only 13% of global real GDP growth, using purchasing-power parity (PPP) weights."
20 October 2006
Risks of recession continuing to rise | Chicago Tribune
Risks of recession continuing to rise | Chicago Tribune: "Most major polls of economists have said the chances of a recession and its ill-begotten progeny, a bear market, are very low.
While stock market bulls may take comfort in that, they should remember this: Not one recession in the past 50 years was forecast in advance by a major poll of economic forecasters, said James Stack, a market historian and editor of InvesTech Research.
Recessions and bears can and often do arrive unexpectedly. Savvy investors simply cannot rely on assurances that the economy won't lapse into recession, generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Recent polls of economists put the odds of this at less than 25 percent.
'At this stage of an economic recovery, now going into the fifth year, it is time for investors to get more defensive and more conservative,' Stack said. 'They have to navigate their portfolio through treacherous waters for the next six to nine months.'
That's because bear markets typically presage recessions and can lop off 20 percent or more of an investor's portfolio."
While stock market bulls may take comfort in that, they should remember this: Not one recession in the past 50 years was forecast in advance by a major poll of economic forecasters, said James Stack, a market historian and editor of InvesTech Research.
Recessions and bears can and often do arrive unexpectedly. Savvy investors simply cannot rely on assurances that the economy won't lapse into recession, generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Recent polls of economists put the odds of this at less than 25 percent.
'At this stage of an economic recovery, now going into the fifth year, it is time for investors to get more defensive and more conservative,' Stack said. 'They have to navigate their portfolio through treacherous waters for the next six to nine months.'
That's because bear markets typically presage recessions and can lop off 20 percent or more of an investor's portfolio."
19 October 2006
Credit Extreme
Safe Haven | Credit Extreme Emotion: "Sentiment Update
For the last 11 days, MBH Commodities' Daily Sentiment Indicator (DSI) has recorded a 90% or higher bullish reading for the S&P500 index. This is the highest 10 day average ever recorded in the 19 year history of this indicator. Investors are now more optimistic towards this index than they were at tops in late 1987 or early 2000, which led to falls of 35% and 50%, respectively. The NASDAQ's sentiment is also at extreme levels. For the last 10 days, an average of 92% of investors surveyed believe the NASDAQ will go higher. What makes this even more amazing is that the S&P500 and NASDAQ indexes are not making new highs. With extreme optimism levels not seen in over 19 years in these equity markets, it would be wise to prepare for a historic sell off."
For the last 11 days, MBH Commodities' Daily Sentiment Indicator (DSI) has recorded a 90% or higher bullish reading for the S&P500 index. This is the highest 10 day average ever recorded in the 19 year history of this indicator. Investors are now more optimistic towards this index than they were at tops in late 1987 or early 2000, which led to falls of 35% and 50%, respectively. The NASDAQ's sentiment is also at extreme levels. For the last 10 days, an average of 92% of investors surveyed believe the NASDAQ will go higher. What makes this even more amazing is that the S&P500 and NASDAQ indexes are not making new highs. With extreme optimism levels not seen in over 19 years in these equity markets, it would be wise to prepare for a historic sell off."
17 October 2006
Credit Crunch
The Comming credit crunch
Despite the steadily expanding U.S. economy, a perfect storm of rising mortgage rates, disappearing health-insurance coverage, stagnant wages and relentless college-tuition increases is gathering on the financial horizon for many Americans, threatening a flood of debt and bankruptcies. The warning signs are hard to miss:
The amount of consumer credit outstanding, led by brisk growth in credit card use, more than doubled in the first six months of the year, according to the Federal Reserve. Over the past two years, consumers increased their non-mortgage debt by 12.5 percent, reaching an average of $11,669 early this year, says Experian Consumer Direct, a company that compiles credit reports and scores. Meanwhile, the average number of late payments rose 19 percent, indicating increasing difficulty managing the greater debt load.
Mortgage foreclosures are on the upswing from historic lows, says Bob Visini, a spokesperson for First American LoanPerformance, a mortgage data company in San Francisco. There also is a significant increase in late mortgage payments among sub-prime borrowers, generally those with credit scores below 680 on a scale of 300 to 850. Nationwide, just over 10 percent of sub-prime borrowers are at least 30 days late on their mortgage payments."
Despite the steadily expanding U.S. economy, a perfect storm of rising mortgage rates, disappearing health-insurance coverage, stagnant wages and relentless college-tuition increases is gathering on the financial horizon for many Americans, threatening a flood of debt and bankruptcies. The warning signs are hard to miss:
The amount of consumer credit outstanding, led by brisk growth in credit card use, more than doubled in the first six months of the year, according to the Federal Reserve. Over the past two years, consumers increased their non-mortgage debt by 12.5 percent, reaching an average of $11,669 early this year, says Experian Consumer Direct, a company that compiles credit reports and scores. Meanwhile, the average number of late payments rose 19 percent, indicating increasing difficulty managing the greater debt load.
Mortgage foreclosures are on the upswing from historic lows, says Bob Visini, a spokesperson for First American LoanPerformance, a mortgage data company in San Francisco. There also is a significant increase in late mortgage payments among sub-prime borrowers, generally those with credit scores below 680 on a scale of 300 to 850. Nationwide, just over 10 percent of sub-prime borrowers are at least 30 days late on their mortgage payments."
11 October 2006
6 October 2006
Please, Proceed to the Nearest Exit
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Today, as I write this article, a financial storm continues to build. Still, most people don’t want to be bothered with the details. With such pretty pie charts predicting fair winds, they feel secure aboard the “USS Stocks for the Long Term,” chanting the “Buy-n-Hold” mantra should they ever feel a tinge of concern. Yet, when this modern marvel collides with the iceberg of science and history, the pain will cause them to begin searching for what went wrong. Understandably, they want their lives to go as normal. Unfortunately, the thinly disguised marketing materials most investors (and advisors) look to for guidance carry a heavy consequence which will affect many for the rest of their lives."
3 October 2006
Guardian Unlimited Business | | America is living beyond its means
Guardian Unlimited Business | | America is living beyond its means: "It's 2056. After a coup in Saudi Arabia, the new government announces it is cutting off supplies of its dwindling stock of oil to the United States. The White House responds by sending in the troops, but is forced to withdraw after Beijing says it will only continue shoring up the dollar if the military action is called off.
Marking the 100th anniversary of Suez, the Americans have no choice but to comply. Fanciful? Ludicrous? Certainly, that would have been the reaction of the traders on Wall Street who last week sent the Dow Jones industrial average to within a whisker of its all-time high. But even if the US can avoid a hard landing in the short term, as equity dealers believe it can, the medium and long-term risks to the economy remain."
Marking the 100th anniversary of Suez, the Americans have no choice but to comply. Fanciful? Ludicrous? Certainly, that would have been the reaction of the traders on Wall Street who last week sent the Dow Jones industrial average to within a whisker of its all-time high. But even if the US can avoid a hard landing in the short term, as equity dealers believe it can, the medium and long-term risks to the economy remain."
28 September 2006
Home-Equity Loss Rate Rises to Most Since 2001
Bloomberg.com: Bonds: "Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The rate of losses on U.S. home- equity loans in June reached its worst level since 2001 because of more foreclosures, Moody's Investors Service said.
The loss rate climbed to 1.05 percent of total loans from 0.8 percent in June 2005, Moody's said in a statement yesterday. The amount of loans with payments more than 60 days late rose to 6.76 percent from 5.86 percent. There were $551.1 billion of securities backed by home-equity loans outstanding at the end of last year, according to the Bond Market Association.
Destruction from Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama last year along with layoffs in the Detroit area by carmakers Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. this year have left more people unable to pay bills, said Michael Youngblood, a Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst.
``We have seen much greater weakness in the rust belt cities than anticipated,'' Youngblood said in an interview today.
The share of mortgages entering foreclosure at the end of June was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2004, according to a Sept. 13 report by the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. And prices of existing homes fell last month for the first time in 11 years as sales dipped to the lowest level since early 2004, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. "
The loss rate climbed to 1.05 percent of total loans from 0.8 percent in June 2005, Moody's said in a statement yesterday. The amount of loans with payments more than 60 days late rose to 6.76 percent from 5.86 percent. There were $551.1 billion of securities backed by home-equity loans outstanding at the end of last year, according to the Bond Market Association.
Destruction from Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama last year along with layoffs in the Detroit area by carmakers Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. this year have left more people unable to pay bills, said Michael Youngblood, a Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst.
``We have seen much greater weakness in the rust belt cities than anticipated,'' Youngblood said in an interview today.
The share of mortgages entering foreclosure at the end of June was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2004, according to a Sept. 13 report by the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. And prices of existing homes fell last month for the first time in 11 years as sales dipped to the lowest level since early 2004, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. "
25 September 2006
PAKISTAN: MULLAH OMAR BEHIND PEACE DEAL BETWEEN GOVT. AND TALIBAN, REPORT
PAKISTAN: MULLAH OMAR BEHIND PEACE DEAL BETWEEN GOVT. AND TALIBAN, REPORT: "London, 25 Sept. (AKI/DAWN) - The fugitive Taliban commander Mullah Omar has emerged as the key player behind the controversial peace deal between the Pakistani government and the pro-Taliban rebels in the tribal region of Waziristan. The online edition of the British daily Telegraph reported that the Taliban’s one-eyed spiritual leader, who has a 10 million dollars price on his head for refusing to hand over Osama bin Laden after the September 11 attacks, signed a letter explicitly endorsing the recently announced truce."
23 September 2006
U.S. real estate crash could cause global ripples
globeandmail.com : U.S. real estate crash could cause global ripples: "VANCOUVER -- The United States real estate market has entered a period of 'unprecedented volatility,' and banks, insurance providers, and government housing agencies should brace for global ripple effects, Yale economist and author Robert Shiller told a conference yesterday.
'There is a serious risk of worldwide recession coming up in the next couple of years because of the turning of the real estate market,' said Mr. Shiller, speaking at the annual congress of the International Union for Housing Finance (IUHF) in Vancouver."
'There is a serious risk of worldwide recession coming up in the next couple of years because of the turning of the real estate market,' said Mr. Shiller, speaking at the annual congress of the International Union for Housing Finance (IUHF) in Vancouver."
Global Growth Downgrades Continue
BCA Research - Independent Investment Research Since 1949: "The ZEW survey of analyst expectations for the euro area and the global economy slipped again in September. The global indicator is now near past cyclical lows, with the U.S. component notably weak. The euro area measure also continues to fall, which is in marked contrast to other surveys that indicate momentum remains strong. While the global economy is clearly cooling, the ZEW measures overstate the pace of the deceleration. However, the weakness of the euro zone reading calls into question the ability of the region to de-couple from U.S. and global trend. Bottom line: the developing global growth slowdown will be broad-based, with all major regions moderating. "
19 September 2006
SAC's Cohen sees risk of mass hedge fund exit: WSJ | Business News | Reuters.com
SAC's Cohen sees risk of mass hedge fund exit: WSJ | Business News | Reuters.com: "NEW YORK (Reuters) - Steven Cohen, the billionaire founder of SAC Capital Advisors, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that there may eventually be a sharp fall in the stock market, exacerbated by hedge funds crowding into similar shares.
In the interview, published on Sunday, the 50-year-old head of one of the world's most closely watched investment firms also said he was now making bigger bets and holding stocks for a longer time.
'It's hard to find ideas that aren't picked over, and harder to get real returns and differentiate yourself,' Cohen said in the interview. 'We're entering a new environment. The days of big returns are gone.'
The highly secretive investor, whose net worth Forbes magazine estimates to be around $2.5 billion, was also quoted as saying there were risks in burgeoning hedge funds investing in the same stocks.
'There will be a real decline that may devastate hedge funds that have crowded into the same stocks,' he said, adding that he was not worried about that happening this year.
'Hedge funds are bigger than they used to be. Their positions are bigger,' he said. 'I worry that if everyone were to sell, could we get out?'
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved."
In the interview, published on Sunday, the 50-year-old head of one of the world's most closely watched investment firms also said he was now making bigger bets and holding stocks for a longer time.
'It's hard to find ideas that aren't picked over, and harder to get real returns and differentiate yourself,' Cohen said in the interview. 'We're entering a new environment. The days of big returns are gone.'
The highly secretive investor, whose net worth Forbes magazine estimates to be around $2.5 billion, was also quoted as saying there were risks in burgeoning hedge funds investing in the same stocks.
'There will be a real decline that may devastate hedge funds that have crowded into the same stocks,' he said, adding that he was not worried about that happening this year.
'Hedge funds are bigger than they used to be. Their positions are bigger,' he said. 'I worry that if everyone were to sell, could we get out?'
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved."
13 September 2006
Situation Called Dire in West Iraq - washingtonpost.com
Situation Called Dire in West Iraq - washingtonpost.com: "The chief of intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq recently filed an unusual secret report concluding that the prospects for securing that country's western Anbar province are dim and that there is almost nothing the U.S. military can do to improve the political and social situation there, said several military officers and intelligence officials familiar with its contents.
The officials described Col. Pete Devlin's classified assessment of the dire state of Anbar as the first time that a senior U.S. military officer has filed so negative a report from Iraq."
The officials described Col. Pete Devlin's classified assessment of the dire state of Anbar as the first time that a senior U.S. military officer has filed so negative a report from Iraq."
8 September 2006
Pollution costs China 511.8 billion yuan in 2004
Pollution costs China 511.8 billion yuan in 2004: "BEIJING -- Environmental pollution caused China to suffer 511.8 billion yuan (about US$64 billion) in economic losses in 2004, which amounted to 3.05 percent of GDP that year, according to a government research report released on Thursday.
It is China's first research report on China's 'green national economy', also called 'green GDP', which is calculated by subtracting the cost of natural resources used and the cost of environmental degradation from the GDP.
'This marks only the beginning of our efforts in Green GDP calculation. Our formula is still not complete and we have to keep working hard to improve it,' said Pan Yue, deputy director of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), at a press conference in Beijing.
The report was jointly released by the SEPA and the National Bureau of Statistics.
The 'Green GDP' calculation system is based on the cost of using five kinds of natural resources - land, minerals, forest, water and fisheries - and the cost of two kinds of environmental degradation - environmental pollution and ecological damage. "
It is China's first research report on China's 'green national economy', also called 'green GDP', which is calculated by subtracting the cost of natural resources used and the cost of environmental degradation from the GDP.
'This marks only the beginning of our efforts in Green GDP calculation. Our formula is still not complete and we have to keep working hard to improve it,' said Pan Yue, deputy director of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), at a press conference in Beijing.
The report was jointly released by the SEPA and the National Bureau of Statistics.
The 'Green GDP' calculation system is based on the cost of using five kinds of natural resources - land, minerals, forest, water and fisheries - and the cost of two kinds of environmental degradation - environmental pollution and ecological damage. "
"Smoking gun" evidence uncovered in Ohio of massive vote fraud
Wayne Madsen Report - Home: "After the November 2004 presidential election, this editor reported on massive vote fraud, particularly in Ohio. The relevant articles are found here, here, here, and here. Sources within the U.S. Intelligence Community provided information on the financing -- via foreign funding sources, covert intelligence networks, and illegal pseudo-banking routes -- of programmers, election officials, and others to ensure that Bush and Cheney captured Ohio's critical 20 electoral votes.
Pursuant to a federal law that permits the destruction of ballots, including absentee ballots, 22 months after a federal election, ballots from the 2004 Ohio election were scheduled to be destroyed on Sept. 2, but the intervention of Columbus-based attorney Cliff Arnebeck and the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights with the U.S. Court in Columbus resulted in a protective order being issued for ballots and voting records in all 88 Ohio counties. This decision upset the corrupt Ohio Republican Party and its gubernatorial standard bearer Kenneth Blackwell, the Secretary of State who helped engineer the 2004 electoral vote fraud coup in his state, who wanted to begin the document shredding process in Sept. 2. "
Pursuant to a federal law that permits the destruction of ballots, including absentee ballots, 22 months after a federal election, ballots from the 2004 Ohio election were scheduled to be destroyed on Sept. 2, but the intervention of Columbus-based attorney Cliff Arnebeck and the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights with the U.S. Court in Columbus resulted in a protective order being issued for ballots and voting records in all 88 Ohio counties. This decision upset the corrupt Ohio Republican Party and its gubernatorial standard bearer Kenneth Blackwell, the Secretary of State who helped engineer the 2004 electoral vote fraud coup in his state, who wanted to begin the document shredding process in Sept. 2. "
"Smoking gun" evidence uncovered in Ohio of massive vote fraud
Wayne Madsen Report - Home: "After the November 2004 presidential election, this editor reported on massive vote fraud, particularly in Ohio. The relevant articles are found here, here, here, and here. Sources within the U.S. Intelligence Community provided information on the financing -- via foreign funding sources, covert intelligence networks, and illegal pseudo-banking routes -- of programmers, election officials, and others to ensure that Bush and Cheney captured Ohio's critical 20 electoral votes.
Pursuant to a federal law that permits the destruction of ballots, including absentee ballots, 22 months after a federal election, ballots from the 2004 Ohio election were scheduled to be destroyed on Sept. 2, but the intervention of Columbus-based attorney Cliff Arnebeck and the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights with the U.S. Court in Columbus resulted in a protective order being issued for ballots and voting records in all 88 Ohio counties. This decision upset the corrupt Ohio Republican Party and its gubernatorial standard bearer Kenneth Blackwell, the Secretary of State who helped engineer the 2004 electoral vote fraud coup in his state, who wanted to begin the document shredding process in Sept. 2. "
Pursuant to a federal law that permits the destruction of ballots, including absentee ballots, 22 months after a federal election, ballots from the 2004 Ohio election were scheduled to be destroyed on Sept. 2, but the intervention of Columbus-based attorney Cliff Arnebeck and the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights with the U.S. Court in Columbus resulted in a protective order being issued for ballots and voting records in all 88 Ohio counties. This decision upset the corrupt Ohio Republican Party and its gubernatorial standard bearer Kenneth Blackwell, the Secretary of State who helped engineer the 2004 electoral vote fraud coup in his state, who wanted to begin the document shredding process in Sept. 2. "
If You Can't Trust a Poll
White Collar Crime Prof Blog: March 7, 2005 - March 13, 2005: "Everyone reads reports about surveys and political polls as if they were gospel, but what if the pollster is taking liberties with the data? An indictment returned in the District of Connecticut presents that very scenario involving DataUSA Inc . (now called ViewPointUSA Inc.), which has been charged along with its owner (Tracy Costin) and a manger (Darryl Hylton) with conspiracy and wire fraud for providing political and business clients with falsified data. The indictment alleges that employees were told to speak with cats and dogs for information. The company's website (www.datausainc.com) has the following statement: 'DataUSA upheld the highest standards in data collection as demonstrated in the excellence of our data. DataUSA's predictions of voting behavior and consumer behavior routinely reflected to be within 1% to 2% of actual behavior. We are proud of the quality data collected and want to thank you for teaming with DataUSA and for your support over the years.'
A press release by the U.S. Attorney described the allegations:
According to the Indictment, DATAUSA INC. (“DataUSA”) conducts surveys and political polls for numerous clients throughout the United States. The surveys or polls are conducted through the use of computers and telephones. COSTIN, the owner and director of operations for DataUSA, was charged with conspiracy to engage and engaging in a wire fraud scheme to defraud clients of DataUSA by falsifying and fabricating survey results. According to the Indictment, both COSTIN and HYLTON, a DataUSA manager, and others not named in the indictment, engaged in a scheme to defraud by unilaterally instructing DataUSA employees to alter survey data and to fabricate surveys and otherwise falsify their contents"
A press release by the U.S. Attorney described the allegations:
According to the Indictment, DATAUSA INC. (“DataUSA”) conducts surveys and political polls for numerous clients throughout the United States. The surveys or polls are conducted through the use of computers and telephones. COSTIN, the owner and director of operations for DataUSA, was charged with conspiracy to engage and engaging in a wire fraud scheme to defraud clients of DataUSA by falsifying and fabricating survey results. According to the Indictment, both COSTIN and HYLTON, a DataUSA manager, and others not named in the indictment, engaged in a scheme to defraud by unilaterally instructing DataUSA employees to alter survey data and to fabricate surveys and otherwise falsify their contents"
7 September 2006
Victims of Foreclosure, Predatory Mortgages on the Rise California Foreclosure Attorney Cites Reasons and Troubling Statistics
Victims of Foreclosure, Predatory Mortgages on the Rise California Foreclosure Attorney Cites Reasons and Troubling Statistics: "San Diego, CA (PRWEB) September 7, 2006 -- According to San Diego County records, mortgage defaults have skyrocketed an astounding 219% since the same time last year. In July 2005 there were 345 defaults. In July 2006 there were 756 defaults, a first step toward a lender’s foreclosure on a property. In July 2005 there were 91 trustee sales of homes.
In the same month this year there were 299 trustee sales, more than three times the year before. California foreclosure attorney John F. Brady, who specializes in rescuing homeowners from mortgages in default, credits the rise in defaults and trustee sales to the influx of inexperienced real estate agents, aggressive new mortgage brokers, naïve first time buyers, little or no money down below-market adjustable interest rate loans and predatory mortgage lending practices.
According to HUD and the Center for Responsible Lending, a national watchdog organization, predatory mortgage lending involves a wide array of abusive practices including excessive fees, abusive prepayment penalties, kickbacks to brokers, loan flipping, unnecessary products, mandatory arbitration, and steering & targeting. “You would think mostly low income folks would be the victim’s of predatory mortgages, says Brady,“however recent studies show that three out of four loans were made to borrowers with middle and upper incomes.” "
In the same month this year there were 299 trustee sales, more than three times the year before. California foreclosure attorney John F. Brady, who specializes in rescuing homeowners from mortgages in default, credits the rise in defaults and trustee sales to the influx of inexperienced real estate agents, aggressive new mortgage brokers, naïve first time buyers, little or no money down below-market adjustable interest rate loans and predatory mortgage lending practices.
According to HUD and the Center for Responsible Lending, a national watchdog organization, predatory mortgage lending involves a wide array of abusive practices including excessive fees, abusive prepayment penalties, kickbacks to brokers, loan flipping, unnecessary products, mandatory arbitration, and steering & targeting. “You would think mostly low income folks would be the victim’s of predatory mortgages, says Brady,“however recent studies show that three out of four loans were made to borrowers with middle and upper incomes.” "
CPAs Pessimistic about Economy
CPAs Pessimistic about Economy - - CFO.com: "More than half of certified public accountants polled by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, many of them CFOs or controllers, are pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy. The opinions of 54 percent of accountants polled ranged from neutral to very pessimistic. That's up from 41 percent expressing similar sentiments in December 2005, the last time the AICPA conducted this kind of survey.
'The lack of enthusiasm for the state of the economy among these CPA executives seems to mirror that of consumers in general,' said John Morrow, AICPA Vice President for members in business and industry, in a statement."
'The lack of enthusiasm for the state of the economy among these CPA executives seems to mirror that of consumers in general,' said John Morrow, AICPA Vice President for members in business and industry, in a statement."
2 September 2006
US: Bullish or Bearish?
Morgan Stanley: "On balance, I remain constructive on the structural prognosis while I have turned more pessimistic on the cyclical outlook.
Four months ago, I dared to pen my first constructive piece on the global macro outlook in years (see my 1 May dispatch, “World on the Mend”). Yet recently, I have warned of the mounting downside risks to world economic growth in 2007 (see my 14 August dispatch, “Not Much Fizz Left in the Global Economy”). How do I reconcile these seemingly contradictory points of view?
My optimistic assessment was primarily a call on the global policy architecture -- the structural framework that governs the cross-border interplay between national economies and world financial markets. I was encouraged because the so-called stewards of globalization finally seemed to be taking the threat of mounting global imbalances seriously. The 22 April meetings of the G-7 and the IMF were watershed events -- singling out global imbalances as an increasingly worrisome threat to sustainable growth in the world economy. The IMF introduced a new paradigm of surveillance and consultation that moved from a single-country to a multilateral framework. I drew added encouragement from pro-consumption rumblings in China that pointed to a rebalancing of that economy away from excess dependence on exports and fixed investment. For years, I worried that the authorities were asleep at the switch as an increasingly unbalanced world veered toward a highly disruptive strain of global rebalancing. With global policy makers finally waking up to the threat, I argued that it made sense to reduce the odds of a crisis endgame"
Four months ago, I dared to pen my first constructive piece on the global macro outlook in years (see my 1 May dispatch, “World on the Mend”). Yet recently, I have warned of the mounting downside risks to world economic growth in 2007 (see my 14 August dispatch, “Not Much Fizz Left in the Global Economy”). How do I reconcile these seemingly contradictory points of view?
My optimistic assessment was primarily a call on the global policy architecture -- the structural framework that governs the cross-border interplay between national economies and world financial markets. I was encouraged because the so-called stewards of globalization finally seemed to be taking the threat of mounting global imbalances seriously. The 22 April meetings of the G-7 and the IMF were watershed events -- singling out global imbalances as an increasingly worrisome threat to sustainable growth in the world economy. The IMF introduced a new paradigm of surveillance and consultation that moved from a single-country to a multilateral framework. I drew added encouragement from pro-consumption rumblings in China that pointed to a rebalancing of that economy away from excess dependence on exports and fixed investment. For years, I worried that the authorities were asleep at the switch as an increasingly unbalanced world veered toward a highly disruptive strain of global rebalancing. With global policy makers finally waking up to the threat, I argued that it made sense to reduce the odds of a crisis endgame"
mish's latest
Thursday, August 31, 2006
On the Cusp
The Detroit Free Press has a Michigan Census Snapshot that I would like to share.
In a dramatic sign of its ailing economy, Michigan's household income dropped, more children joined the ranks of poor people and the number of people living below the poverty level jumped in the suburbs, according to census figures released Tuesday.
The figures show Michigan's median household income fell more than any other state's during the last six years. It was $46,039 in 2005 -- 12% less than what it was in 1999 when adjusted for inflation. None of the 28 counties and 21 municipalities for which data were reported showed a rise in median household income between 1999 and 2005, the estimates show.
The news was grim in other areas, too. In 2005:
• 19% of children in Michigan lived in poverty, up from six years ago.
• Almost a third of the state's African Americans lived below the poverty level.
• Detroit remained one of the poorest big cities in the country with almost a third of its residents living below the poverty line.
• Cities and townships posted drops in median household incomes ranging from 24% to 6% and poverty rates increased in all but three cities.
"I hate to superimpose worse news on top of bad news, but this is not a cycle," said David Littman, a senior economist for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a Midland-based think tank. "We're in a secular decline here in Michigan. As the economy slows nationally, we're going to sink much farther relative to the other states. We've only just begun.
"We're going to see Michigan sink to levels that no one has ever seen. We're going to be looking at the highest unemployment rates in the nation for the next five to 10 years."
Following is a chart showing the income drop of Michigan vs. other states.
The next two charts show how various counties in Michigan have fared.
Thanks to the Detroit Free Press for all of the above charts.
More statistics and a better chart can be found in this PDF.
I believe Michigan is a harbinger of times to come for much of the US. So do a few others.
Regli on Silicon Investor writes "Michigan will be called unrepresentative until people realize in a few years to a decade that it is not. The only advantage it has is that it came first."
John Vosilla on Silicon Investor is asking "Is Florida going to follow in Michigan's footsteps?"
Vosilla was referring to the St. Petersburg Times article Economic gloom tightens grip
Battered by fuel prices, a housing slump and storm fears, Floridians are less confident in the economy than at any time since 1993.
Floridians' confidence in the economy plunged this month to its lowest level in 13 years, University of Florida economists said Tuesday.
The chill in the housing market, higher interest rates and fuel prices appear to be taking their toll. National confidence numbers also fell in August, but not as much as they did in Florida.
The Florida Consumer Confidence Index fell 11 points to 76, while the national index, compiled by the Conference Board, went from 107 to 99.6.
The Florida drop is very similar to the one that occurred last September in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, only this time there was no hurricane to blame. Chris McCarty, director of survey research at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, thinks the changed outlook for housing is at least partly responsible.
"Florida is in a position to really be affected by a decline in housing," McCarty said.
"There are a lot of overvalued markets in Florida, and there are a lot of risky loans, some of which are going to readjust right about now," he said. "Also, a lot of employment increases over the last few years have been related to housing."
When projects get canceled or put on hold, that has a direct impact on jobs and a secondary impact on sales of appliances and furniture, he said.
Many consumers also are feeling the pinch of higher energy prices at the gas pump and in their utility bills.
"The feedback I get from people when they cancel their appointments at the last minute is that they're broke," said Valerie Bohr, 41, who owns Brilliance Color and Hairstyles in Largo. "Just this week I had two people tell me they got electric bills over $400. People can't afford to come in and get their hair done if they're working to pay an electric bill like that."
She worries about being able to keep her salon open.
Hmmm. People can't afford to come in and get their hair done if they're working to pay an electric bill like that." She worries about being able to keep her salon open.
Translation: Regardless of what it costs to run that salon, Brilliance Color and Hairstyles in Largo simply is in no position to even attempt to raise prices.
Bennigan's restaurant dropped the price of their half pound burger from $7.99 to $4.99.
That's a drop of $3 or 37.54 percent! That can't happen can it? At least that is what I am told with rising input costs on food and energy. OK, Bennigan's is just one restaurant, big deal. No, it's not just one restaurant, and yes it is indeed a very big deal. It is all about discretionary spending and a slow change from consumption to saving.
I talked about that idea recently (along with Kevin Depew) and was mainly scoffed at judging by the blog responses to The Psychology of Deflation.
The facts are what they are and here they are:
* Prices of homes are dropping.
* Land prices are dropping.
* Prices at restaurant are dropping.
* Prices at some nail salons are dropping.
* Now we see that hair salon owners might not be able to stay in business.
Hey, what's the problem?
Concrete prices rising, energy prices rising, copper prices rising?
The solution is simple: Just raise your prices!
I am told that "must" happen.
Meanwhile I watch the opposite happen.
I talked about PPI prices in Intermediate vs. Finished PPI.
Input prices rising?
What's the problem?
Just raise output prices.
It has to happen. Right?
Well why isn't it?
Am I declaring victory in my call for deflation?
No way. I will instead sit back (probably for quite some time) and watch the inflationists explain away things that "can not happen" that are happening.
Here are a couple more facts to consider.
1. The $CRB just busted a 5 year trendline.
2. Changes in secular trends do not change easily or overnight.
Actually I think we are about to see a cyclical change in the $CRB but a secular change in regards to consumption and savings. The implications of those two points will make the Fed's problem all the more difficult.
Will the Fed counteract? Yes they will. Indeed, the reaction to the next few moves by the Fed over the next year or so will be the proof of the pudding. That makes it too early to declare victory even as all sign are currently pointed "down town".
We will see what "Helicopter Drop" Bernanke has up his sleeves (or not).
We are now at an economic inflection point. There may be a headfake at this point in either direction.
I will offer this prediction.
It is an easy one, yet one that few believe.
Many more states will follow the path of Michigan.
We are indeed on the cusp..... of deflation.
It is ironic that the Fed unleashed the very beast they feared by fighting it too early, at a time when there simply was no threat. Now that the threat is real, no one sees it.
On the Cusp
The Detroit Free Press has a Michigan Census Snapshot that I would like to share.
In a dramatic sign of its ailing economy, Michigan's household income dropped, more children joined the ranks of poor people and the number of people living below the poverty level jumped in the suburbs, according to census figures released Tuesday.
The figures show Michigan's median household income fell more than any other state's during the last six years. It was $46,039 in 2005 -- 12% less than what it was in 1999 when adjusted for inflation. None of the 28 counties and 21 municipalities for which data were reported showed a rise in median household income between 1999 and 2005, the estimates show.
The news was grim in other areas, too. In 2005:
• 19% of children in Michigan lived in poverty, up from six years ago.
• Almost a third of the state's African Americans lived below the poverty level.
• Detroit remained one of the poorest big cities in the country with almost a third of its residents living below the poverty line.
• Cities and townships posted drops in median household incomes ranging from 24% to 6% and poverty rates increased in all but three cities.
"I hate to superimpose worse news on top of bad news, but this is not a cycle," said David Littman, a senior economist for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a Midland-based think tank. "We're in a secular decline here in Michigan. As the economy slows nationally, we're going to sink much farther relative to the other states. We've only just begun.
"We're going to see Michigan sink to levels that no one has ever seen. We're going to be looking at the highest unemployment rates in the nation for the next five to 10 years."
Following is a chart showing the income drop of Michigan vs. other states.
The next two charts show how various counties in Michigan have fared.
Thanks to the Detroit Free Press for all of the above charts.
More statistics and a better chart can be found in this PDF.
I believe Michigan is a harbinger of times to come for much of the US. So do a few others.
Regli on Silicon Investor writes "Michigan will be called unrepresentative until people realize in a few years to a decade that it is not. The only advantage it has is that it came first."
John Vosilla on Silicon Investor is asking "Is Florida going to follow in Michigan's footsteps?"
Vosilla was referring to the St. Petersburg Times article Economic gloom tightens grip
Battered by fuel prices, a housing slump and storm fears, Floridians are less confident in the economy than at any time since 1993.
Floridians' confidence in the economy plunged this month to its lowest level in 13 years, University of Florida economists said Tuesday.
The chill in the housing market, higher interest rates and fuel prices appear to be taking their toll. National confidence numbers also fell in August, but not as much as they did in Florida.
The Florida Consumer Confidence Index fell 11 points to 76, while the national index, compiled by the Conference Board, went from 107 to 99.6.
The Florida drop is very similar to the one that occurred last September in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, only this time there was no hurricane to blame. Chris McCarty, director of survey research at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, thinks the changed outlook for housing is at least partly responsible.
"Florida is in a position to really be affected by a decline in housing," McCarty said.
"There are a lot of overvalued markets in Florida, and there are a lot of risky loans, some of which are going to readjust right about now," he said. "Also, a lot of employment increases over the last few years have been related to housing."
When projects get canceled or put on hold, that has a direct impact on jobs and a secondary impact on sales of appliances and furniture, he said.
Many consumers also are feeling the pinch of higher energy prices at the gas pump and in their utility bills.
"The feedback I get from people when they cancel their appointments at the last minute is that they're broke," said Valerie Bohr, 41, who owns Brilliance Color and Hairstyles in Largo. "Just this week I had two people tell me they got electric bills over $400. People can't afford to come in and get their hair done if they're working to pay an electric bill like that."
She worries about being able to keep her salon open.
Hmmm. People can't afford to come in and get their hair done if they're working to pay an electric bill like that." She worries about being able to keep her salon open.
Translation: Regardless of what it costs to run that salon, Brilliance Color and Hairstyles in Largo simply is in no position to even attempt to raise prices.
Bennigan's restaurant dropped the price of their half pound burger from $7.99 to $4.99.
That's a drop of $3 or 37.54 percent! That can't happen can it? At least that is what I am told with rising input costs on food and energy. OK, Bennigan's is just one restaurant, big deal. No, it's not just one restaurant, and yes it is indeed a very big deal. It is all about discretionary spending and a slow change from consumption to saving.
I talked about that idea recently (along with Kevin Depew) and was mainly scoffed at judging by the blog responses to The Psychology of Deflation.
The facts are what they are and here they are:
* Prices of homes are dropping.
* Land prices are dropping.
* Prices at restaurant are dropping.
* Prices at some nail salons are dropping.
* Now we see that hair salon owners might not be able to stay in business.
Hey, what's the problem?
Concrete prices rising, energy prices rising, copper prices rising?
The solution is simple: Just raise your prices!
I am told that "must" happen.
Meanwhile I watch the opposite happen.
I talked about PPI prices in Intermediate vs. Finished PPI.
Input prices rising?
What's the problem?
Just raise output prices.
It has to happen. Right?
Well why isn't it?
Am I declaring victory in my call for deflation?
No way. I will instead sit back (probably for quite some time) and watch the inflationists explain away things that "can not happen" that are happening.
Here are a couple more facts to consider.
1. The $CRB just busted a 5 year trendline.
2. Changes in secular trends do not change easily or overnight.
Actually I think we are about to see a cyclical change in the $CRB but a secular change in regards to consumption and savings. The implications of those two points will make the Fed's problem all the more difficult.
Will the Fed counteract? Yes they will. Indeed, the reaction to the next few moves by the Fed over the next year or so will be the proof of the pudding. That makes it too early to declare victory even as all sign are currently pointed "down town".
We will see what "Helicopter Drop" Bernanke has up his sleeves (or not).
We are now at an economic inflection point. There may be a headfake at this point in either direction.
I will offer this prediction.
It is an easy one, yet one that few believe.
Many more states will follow the path of Michigan.
We are indeed on the cusp..... of deflation.
It is ironic that the Fed unleashed the very beast they feared by fighting it too early, at a time when there simply was no threat. Now that the threat is real, no one sees it.
27 August 2006
RGE - Eight Market Spins About Housing by Perma-Bull Spin-Doctors...And the Reality of the Coming Ugliest Housing Bust Ever….
RGE - Eight Market Spins About Housing by Perma-Bull Spin-Doctors...And the Reality of the Coming Ugliest Housing Bust Ever….: "My recent detailed analysis of the high risks of a housing-led recession in 2007 has stirred some serious discussions and debates in the blogosphere and the press. Now that the onslaught of bad news about housing (see the table below) has taken the force of a tsunami that will soon trigger an ugly recession, Goldilocks spin-masters and perma-bulls are on the defensive. Since the housing slump is now undeniable – and rather than a slump it looks like a really ugly bust - the new line of defense of perma-bulls is to argue that the problems of the housing market are only a healthy correction from bubbly excesses, that housing is only in a modest slump that will soon bottom out and recover, and that housing problems will not lead to wider macroeconomic troubles such a broad recession. What a set of Delightfully Delusional Dreams that smash against the ugly reality of recent free falling housing data shown in the table below."
25 August 2006
The Big Picture: Is a Housing Crisis Approaching?
The Big Picture: Is a Housing Crisis Approaching?: "Lon Witter puts forth a different and intriguing notion. Witter observes that we don't have a Housing bubble, what the U.S. has is a lending bubble. His evidence is how loose the lending standards have become, and why not? The banks ultimately just flip the loans to the Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association, on the NYSE: FNM), where foreclosures and defaults become the headache of buyers looking for greater risk and return.
Witter claims his careful look at the reasons for the rise in housing give a good indication of the impact housing may have on the stock market. He observes the causes (in chronological order) of the rise and ultimate fall of Housing: 'The collapse of the Internet bubble, which chased hot money out of the stock market; rock-bottom interest rates; 50 years of economic history that suggested housing never goes down, and creative financing.'
More specifically, Witter's expectations are colored by rather disturbing data: "
Witter claims his careful look at the reasons for the rise in housing give a good indication of the impact housing may have on the stock market. He observes the causes (in chronological order) of the rise and ultimate fall of Housing: 'The collapse of the Internet bubble, which chased hot money out of the stock market; rock-bottom interest rates; 50 years of economic history that suggested housing never goes down, and creative financing.'
More specifically, Witter's expectations are colored by rather disturbing data: "
22 August 2006
Mortgage Backed=Junk
russwinter's Xanga Site: "I am keying on the notion that mortgage backed securities are generally junk issues, not investment grade. On August 16, I discussed this as it pertained to land valuations. The primary thesis to this notion is that the collateral backing this debt is fading. Although the claims of 'only' single digit gains has passed, of late the reported housing price data nationally and in key Bubble locales has been chiming in with generally flat year over year figures. In some locations the number have been actually down ' a bit'. Is this accurate?
I gleaned this WSJ.com article on this question. The key take away suggests that the reality is much worse than merely flat prices:
Moreover, there is some reason to believe the reality is even harsher than the numbers reflect. That is because when home sales begin to slow, sellers offer incentives that the official prices don’t reflect, such as help in paying buyers’ closing or moving costs. Also, as sales volumes in the worst local markets decline, a larger share of the recorded sales tend to come from markets that are still doing relatively well — a factor that can skew official prices upward.
The difference can be significant. Thomas Lawler, an economist and former vice president at Fannie Mae who has studied prices near his home in Loudoun County, Va., estimates that the average price of similar homes in July — accounting for concessions — was down 10% to 15% from a year earlier. The local realtors’ organization, he says, reported only a 2.5% drop. “There are a lot of people who would love to be able to sell their homes at last year’s price,” he says. “But they can’t.” "
I gleaned this WSJ.com article on this question. The key take away suggests that the reality is much worse than merely flat prices:
Moreover, there is some reason to believe the reality is even harsher than the numbers reflect. That is because when home sales begin to slow, sellers offer incentives that the official prices don’t reflect, such as help in paying buyers’ closing or moving costs. Also, as sales volumes in the worst local markets decline, a larger share of the recorded sales tend to come from markets that are still doing relatively well — a factor that can skew official prices upward.
The difference can be significant. Thomas Lawler, an economist and former vice president at Fannie Mae who has studied prices near his home in Loudoun County, Va., estimates that the average price of similar homes in July — accounting for concessions — was down 10% to 15% from a year earlier. The local realtors’ organization, he says, reported only a 2.5% drop. “There are a lot of people who would love to be able to sell their homes at last year’s price,” he says. “But they can’t.” "
18 August 2006
New Stupid Mogambo Gold Lease-Rate Theory
Kitco - Contributed Commentaries - Richard Daughty: "You probably know me for the real peach of a guy I really am. And in the few times per day when I am not, there is always a lot of anger about the mismanagement of the economy, replete with screaming and yelling, the sound of approaching sirens and, sometimes, a lot of spent bullet casings scattered on the ground. It merely adds up to the new psychiatric diagnosis, Mogambo Psychonomic Syndrome (MPS), as recently discovered by Dr. George Ure.
So when Total Fed Credit went down by $7.18 billion last week, I really lost it, MPS-wise. I'm running frantically around the living room, dressed in an adult-sized disposable diaper, desperately sucking on this ridiculous pink plastic pacifier that seems, suddenly, to have lost its power to soothe, and I'm snarling and mumbling something that sounds like 'Mmfmn ngnngg gagunm mumm unh!'
My wife, barricading herself behind the couch, is frantically leafing through the Market Laboratory section of Barron's, hoping to find some good news to calm me down. I can barely hear her, as he is quietly muttering to herself 'No, I better not tell him that the Gross National Debt is at a new record, up $8 billion from last week! And if I tell him that Consumer Installment Debt went up $11 billion in the month of June, he'll really lose it!' "
So when Total Fed Credit went down by $7.18 billion last week, I really lost it, MPS-wise. I'm running frantically around the living room, dressed in an adult-sized disposable diaper, desperately sucking on this ridiculous pink plastic pacifier that seems, suddenly, to have lost its power to soothe, and I'm snarling and mumbling something that sounds like 'Mmfmn ngnngg gagunm mumm unh!'
My wife, barricading herself behind the couch, is frantically leafing through the Market Laboratory section of Barron's, hoping to find some good news to calm me down. I can barely hear her, as he is quietly muttering to herself 'No, I better not tell him that the Gross National Debt is at a new record, up $8 billion from last week! And if I tell him that Consumer Installment Debt went up $11 billion in the month of June, he'll really lose it!' "
12 August 2006
Did US want Israel to attack Syria?
Did US want Israel to attack Syria? | csmonitor.com: "One Israeli source said [US President George] Bush's interest in spreading the war to Syria was considered 'nuts' by some senior Israeli officials, although Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has generally shared Bush's hard-line strategy against Islamic militants.
After rebuffing Bush's suggestion about attacking Syria, the Israeli government settled on a strategy of mounting a major assault in southern Lebanon aimed at rooting out Hizbullah guerrillas who have been firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel"
After rebuffing Bush's suggestion about attacking Syria, the Israeli government settled on a strategy of mounting a major assault in southern Lebanon aimed at rooting out Hizbullah guerrillas who have been firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel"
8 August 2006
THIS is not a bubble
www.miningmx.com | markets Metals euphoria grips Diggers opening: "miningmx.com] -- “THIS is not a bubble, this is the real thing,” declared Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum chairman Brian Hurley in his opening address to the conference which began on August 7 in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
Hurley told delegates: “The world, and where the mining industry fits into it, has changed dramatically and fundamentally over the last 50 years. But the change has crept up on us incrementally and we have not noticed.miningmx.com] -- “THIS is not a bubble, this is the real thing,” declared Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum chairman Brian Hurley in his opening address to the conference which began on August 7 in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
Hurley told delegates: “The world, and where the mining industry fits into it, has changed dramatically and fundamentally over the last 50 years. But the change has crept up on us incrementally and we have not noticed."
Hurley told delegates: “The world, and where the mining industry fits into it, has changed dramatically and fundamentally over the last 50 years. But the change has crept up on us incrementally and we have not noticed.miningmx.com] -- “THIS is not a bubble, this is the real thing,” declared Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum chairman Brian Hurley in his opening address to the conference which began on August 7 in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
Hurley told delegates: “The world, and where the mining industry fits into it, has changed dramatically and fundamentally over the last 50 years. But the change has crept up on us incrementally and we have not noticed."
6 August 2006
Clashes over land roil China's poor | csmonitor.com
Clashes over land roil China's poor | csmonitor.com: "BEIJING – Ni Youlian is the 'Last Mohican' in a downtown neighborhood that used to have 4,000 families. He's glad that President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have taken up the cause of ordinary people in their speeches this week at China's annual National People's Congress. But like so many urban and city folk who lost farmland or houses to China's epic redevelopment, he doesn't see an end to the lucrative collusion between officials and developers that has created so many millionaires - but has also contributed to so much suspicion and instances of instability. China recorded 87,000 riots or protests last year.
Ni's courtyard house, officially 'protected' for years, was bulldozed in 2003 to make way for skyscrapers. It is a familiar story in Beijing - except Ni refused a cheap buy-off. His life savings were in the house. He withstood beatings by thugs that caused most of his neighbors to leave. He now lives in a plywood shack, and expects the bulldozer any day. But he won't leave. "
Ni's courtyard house, officially 'protected' for years, was bulldozed in 2003 to make way for skyscrapers. It is a familiar story in Beijing - except Ni refused a cheap buy-off. His life savings were in the house. He withstood beatings by thugs that caused most of his neighbors to leave. He now lives in a plywood shack, and expects the bulldozer any day. But he won't leave. "
4 August 2006
Disowning Conservative Politics, Evangelical Pastor Rattles Flock - New York Times
Disowning Conservative Politics, Evangelical Pastor Rattles Flock - New York Times: "MAPLEWOOD, Minn. — Like most pastors who lead thriving evangelical megachurches, the Rev. Gregory A. Boyd was asked frequently to give his blessing — and the church’s — to conservative political candidates and causes.
The requests came from church members and visitors alike: Would he please announce a rally against gay marriage during services? Would he introduce a politician from the pulpit? Could members set up a table in the lobby promoting their anti-abortion work? Would the church distribute “voters’ guides” that all but endorsed Republican candidates? And with the country at war, please couldn’t the church hang an American flag in the sanctuary?
After refusing each time, Mr. Boyd finally became fed up, he said. Before the last presidential election, he preached six sermons called “The Cross and the Sword” in which he said the church should steer clear of politics, give up moralizing on sexual issues, stop claiming the United States as a “Christian nation” and stop glorifying American military campaigns. "
The requests came from church members and visitors alike: Would he please announce a rally against gay marriage during services? Would he introduce a politician from the pulpit? Could members set up a table in the lobby promoting their anti-abortion work? Would the church distribute “voters’ guides” that all but endorsed Republican candidates? And with the country at war, please couldn’t the church hang an American flag in the sanctuary?
After refusing each time, Mr. Boyd finally became fed up, he said. Before the last presidential election, he preached six sermons called “The Cross and the Sword” in which he said the church should steer clear of politics, give up moralizing on sexual issues, stop claiming the United States as a “Christian nation” and stop glorifying American military campaigns. "
2 August 2006
Call to Enrich Uranium in Australia Stirs Debate - New York Times
Call to Enrich Uranium in Australia Stirs Debate - New York Times: "JAKARTA, Indonesia, Aug. 1 — At a time when the United States wants to reduce the amount of nuclear material washing around the world, one of Washington’s major allies, Australia, is on the verge of expanding its production and export of uranium.
The Australian prime minister, John Howard, one of President Bush’s staunchest allies, says the country should also begin enriching uranium, a move directly counter to Mr. Bush’s call for the uranium enrichment club to be limited to the handful of countries that already have the capacity"
The Australian prime minister, John Howard, one of President Bush’s staunchest allies, says the country should also begin enriching uranium, a move directly counter to Mr. Bush’s call for the uranium enrichment club to be limited to the handful of countries that already have the capacity"
31 July 2006
Housing Dominoes Fall
charles hugh smith-Where There Is Ruin III: Housing Dominoes Fall: "As housing rolls over, the dominoes are beginning to fall. The last domino? Global recession.
Surprise of surprises, the business cycle cannot be revoked. (Didn't we learn that in the dot-com era? I guess not.) Rising investor demand (greed) causes prices to rise, stimulating more supply to capitalize on that demand (more greed) which leads to massive oversupply and a calamitous collapse in price. This works for wheat, routers, houses, you name it (and from time to time, even in oil/energy). "
Surprise of surprises, the business cycle cannot be revoked. (Didn't we learn that in the dot-com era? I guess not.) Rising investor demand (greed) causes prices to rise, stimulating more supply to capitalize on that demand (more greed) which leads to massive oversupply and a calamitous collapse in price. This works for wheat, routers, houses, you name it (and from time to time, even in oil/energy). "
28 July 2006
Is World War III Coming to your Neighborhood?
ZAMAN DAILY NEWSPAPER (2006072835102): "Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, calls it the “third world war.” Bill Kristol, editor of the neoconservative Weekly Standard claims it is “our war.”
And the Bush Administration is standing by…and standing by…and doing almost nothing…until what happens? The devastating and immoral attacks by Israel on Lebanon’s people, infrastructure and land seem, somehow, rather disproportionate to the insults and injuries inflicted by Hezbollah’s border crossing two weeks ago. To be sure, the rockets and missiles falling on Haifa and other towns and cities in Northern Israel, and the resulting civilian deaths, are hardly moral or justified. Yet, when was the last time one country destroyed another in order to retrieve two kidnapped soldiers? And didn’t Israel just recently kidnap a good fraction of the Hamas leadership during its foray into Gaza? We need only recall various rescue missions mounted in the past to rescue Israeli captives (e.g., Entebbe) to recognize that Lebanon is the victim of something more than meets the eye. "
And the Bush Administration is standing by…and standing by…and doing almost nothing…until what happens? The devastating and immoral attacks by Israel on Lebanon’s people, infrastructure and land seem, somehow, rather disproportionate to the insults and injuries inflicted by Hezbollah’s border crossing two weeks ago. To be sure, the rockets and missiles falling on Haifa and other towns and cities in Northern Israel, and the resulting civilian deaths, are hardly moral or justified. Yet, when was the last time one country destroyed another in order to retrieve two kidnapped soldiers? And didn’t Israel just recently kidnap a good fraction of the Hamas leadership during its foray into Gaza? We need only recall various rescue missions mounted in the past to rescue Israeli captives (e.g., Entebbe) to recognize that Lebanon is the victim of something more than meets the eye. "
27 July 2006
The Coming End of the US Foreign Investment Bubble - iTulip.com Forums
The Coming End of the US Foreign Investment Bubble - iTulip.com Forums: "If you go to google and type in 'what will pop the internet bubble' the first link returned is a piece I wrote for bankrate.com February 1999. It explains what will pop the tech stock bubble: Credit Squeeze, Bankruptcy, Fraud, and Weakness in the Real Economy. The article comes up first in a google search more than six years later because no one else at the time was making specific predictions on the causes of the impending collapse of the stock market bubble. Now, more than six years later, I'm going to do it again.
Here I'm going to explain the most likely causes of the collapse of the simultaneous bubbles in real estate, equities, and bonds that are the latest asset bubble products of the most recent cycle of the Bubble Cycle System. They all emanate from a single source, a bubble in foreign net acquisition of US financial assets. If you understand the dynamics of events that are likely to collapse the foreign net acquisition of US financial assets bubble and when, you are on your way to understanding the fate of all of the secondary bubbles that it has spawned and the result: a major inflationary recession."
Here I'm going to explain the most likely causes of the collapse of the simultaneous bubbles in real estate, equities, and bonds that are the latest asset bubble products of the most recent cycle of the Bubble Cycle System. They all emanate from a single source, a bubble in foreign net acquisition of US financial assets. If you understand the dynamics of events that are likely to collapse the foreign net acquisition of US financial assets bubble and when, you are on your way to understanding the fate of all of the secondary bubbles that it has spawned and the result: a major inflationary recession."
15 July 2006
Pork Rinds
Minyanville: "One thing we Americans will never be accused of is self-restraint. Faced with entreaties to “eat all you can eat”, “shop til you drop” and “SuperSize It”, we are powerless to resist…and we’ve got the bloated balance sheets and physiques to prove it. After stuffing ourselves silly over the last few years, however, it appears some of us have finally had enough. The latest retail roundup reinforces what we suspected all along-- the U.S. economy is starting to get a little soft around the middle. Sure, things at the high-end are still quite firm. But our middle-class gut has definitely started to head south. As the nation’s midsection succumbs to gravity and the lower-income ranks begin to swell, mid-tier retailers and dining establishments are feeling the pinch.
After kicking and banging their household ATMs to deliver any cash still trapped inside it appears the jig is finally up. Combing through the Fed’s Commercial Bank Assets release last Friday (must reading for insomniacs) we made a most shocking discovery. Transaction deposits (aka checking accounts) at banks plunged -$30b in one week and are down -8.4% y/y, their lowest level since the last recession. Gee, might this evaporation in deposit balances foreshadow a slowdown in discretionary spending ahead?"
After kicking and banging their household ATMs to deliver any cash still trapped inside it appears the jig is finally up. Combing through the Fed’s Commercial Bank Assets release last Friday (must reading for insomniacs) we made a most shocking discovery. Transaction deposits (aka checking accounts) at banks plunged -$30b in one week and are down -8.4% y/y, their lowest level since the last recession. Gee, might this evaporation in deposit balances foreshadow a slowdown in discretionary spending ahead?"
REAL ESTATE BURST, UPCOMING RECESSION, AND SOARING COMMODITY PRICES
REAL ESTATE BURST, UPCOMING RECESSION, AND SOARING COMMODITY PRICES: "Having lived and worked in San Francisco during the Tech and Dotcom bubble, I had a first hand glimpse into the bubble mentality and the irrational exuberance of your average consumer. From Dotcom companies throwing lavish parties (while reporting negative earnings) to college students investing their school money in the stock market, to the creation of “short- lived paper millionaires,” I easily recognized that this move up in the stock market was not sustainable. In the midst of this bubble, many people would look at their stock options or 401k plans, classify themselves as millionaires, and spend money in the economy that further propelled the rise up in the stock market and further expanded the bubble. The end result was that most of these stock options expired worthless, investors lost millions of dollars in the stock market, and the “paper millionaires” where no longer millionaires.
Throughout history, you will find notable examples of manias, Ponzi schemes, and bubbles that have ended up in disasters with investors cutting back on their spending and scrambling to atone for their financial mistakes. This scenario did not happen after the Dotcom bubble. Instead, investors shrugged off their losses as they saw the value of their homes skyrocket. Consequently, the rise up in real estate prices allowed them to continue spending and temporarily delayed the US economy from heading into a major recession. I believe that 2006 will be the beginning of the burst of the real estate bubble, and that this burst will have immediate and severe consequences on the US economy as a whole."
Throughout history, you will find notable examples of manias, Ponzi schemes, and bubbles that have ended up in disasters with investors cutting back on their spending and scrambling to atone for their financial mistakes. This scenario did not happen after the Dotcom bubble. Instead, investors shrugged off their losses as they saw the value of their homes skyrocket. Consequently, the rise up in real estate prices allowed them to continue spending and temporarily delayed the US economy from heading into a major recession. I believe that 2006 will be the beginning of the burst of the real estate bubble, and that this burst will have immediate and severe consequences on the US economy as a whole."
13 July 2006
'City faces meltdown if debt crisis hits'
Telegraph | Money | 'City faces meltdown if debt crisis hits': "In a worse-case scenario, a sharp fall in credit conditions worldwide would have devastating consequences for Britain, the Bank warns.
It could cause a 1.5pc contraction of the UK economy, a 25pc fall in house prices and a 35pc drop in commercial property prices over three years, according to the scenarios mapped out by the Bank. Other major countries would suffer similar effects, it says.
It also indicates that the risks of a serious financial problem in the City have increased during the past six months, and investors would be wrong to assume that, following the market turbulence of past months, the worst is now over"
It could cause a 1.5pc contraction of the UK economy, a 25pc fall in house prices and a 35pc drop in commercial property prices over three years, according to the scenarios mapped out by the Bank. Other major countries would suffer similar effects, it says.
It also indicates that the risks of a serious financial problem in the City have increased during the past six months, and investors would be wrong to assume that, following the market turbulence of past months, the worst is now over"
Flat Earthers Back in Control In Asia?
russwinter's Xanga Site: "It now appears that the Bank of Japan is firmly committed to ensuring that the planet continues to get a solid dose of inflationary atomic fallout. Despite the clear and present danger, such as this hot PPI report, these Wizards just can't help themselves, as they continue to debate whether the earth is flat or round. Although the end of ZIRP is likely at hand, it now seems the flat earthers are prevailing. Flat earthers in China also seem to be in the ascendency, choosing to deal with their out of control train with 'rules'. Just repeat after me, because it's a key concept. The word 'corruption' may as well be substituted for 'rules', when it comes to China. It simply means plutocrats get the bennies, while saps are deprived. Just makes plutocratic looting all the more effective. Andy Xie writes another good piece on China's flawed policy.
Meanwhile the Fed immediately moves to take advantage of the Yen weakness by doing their own version of Adam Smith (not) faux economica. After all many so called 'analysts' use TIPs spreads as inflation indicators, so why not just influence that a little, eh? Perhaps they will get more 'analytical' help when a doctored CPI report is delivered on July 19?"
Meanwhile the Fed immediately moves to take advantage of the Yen weakness by doing their own version of Adam Smith (not) faux economica. After all many so called 'analysts' use TIPs spreads as inflation indicators, so why not just influence that a little, eh? Perhaps they will get more 'analytical' help when a doctored CPI report is delivered on July 19?"
12 July 2006
Oxiana says Prominent Hill set to be Australia's next major copper/gold mine
AFX News Ltd. London : Financial News Products: "SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - Oxiana Ltd said its Prominent Hill project in South Australia remains on track to become Australia's next major copper/gold mine with final approvals for its development expected in August.
The company, which mines gold and base metals in Western Australia and Laos, said a bankable feasibility study is expected to be completed by the end of July.
Oxiana said Prominent Hill continues to display competitive fundamentals and attractive metallurgical characteristics.
'Prominent Hill's robust fundamentals ensure that its costs will be competitive after allowing for current trends in capital and operating costs across the industry,' Oxiana said.
It said there is significant upside in and around the long-life orebody as the deposit remains open to the west, east and at depth.
Using a 0.3 pct copper cut-off grade, Oxiana said the total resource is now estimated at 118.7 mln metric tons containing 1.543 mln tons of copper and 1.870 ounces of gold. SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - Oxiana Ltd said its Prominent Hill project in South Australia remains on track to become Australia's next major copper/gold mine with final approvals for its development expected in August.
The company, which mines gold and base metals in Western Australia and Laos, said a bankable feasibility study is expected to be completed by the end of July.
Oxiana said Prominent Hill continues to display competitive fundamentals and attractive metallurgical characteristics.
'Prominent Hill's robust fundamentals ensure that its costs will be competitive after allowing for current trends in capital and operating costs across the industry,' Oxiana said.
It said there is significant upside in and around the long-li"
The company, which mines gold and base metals in Western Australia and Laos, said a bankable feasibility study is expected to be completed by the end of July.
Oxiana said Prominent Hill continues to display competitive fundamentals and attractive metallurgical characteristics.
'Prominent Hill's robust fundamentals ensure that its costs will be competitive after allowing for current trends in capital and operating costs across the industry,' Oxiana said.
It said there is significant upside in and around the long-life orebody as the deposit remains open to the west, east and at depth.
Using a 0.3 pct copper cut-off grade, Oxiana said the total resource is now estimated at 118.7 mln metric tons containing 1.543 mln tons of copper and 1.870 ounces of gold. SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - Oxiana Ltd said its Prominent Hill project in South Australia remains on track to become Australia's next major copper/gold mine with final approvals for its development expected in August.
The company, which mines gold and base metals in Western Australia and Laos, said a bankable feasibility study is expected to be completed by the end of July.
Oxiana said Prominent Hill continues to display competitive fundamentals and attractive metallurgical characteristics.
'Prominent Hill's robust fundamentals ensure that its costs will be competitive after allowing for current trends in capital and operating costs across the industry,' Oxiana said.
It said there is significant upside in and around the long-li"
Who's paying for the War on Terror?
Dude, where's the Dharma: "Late last week I came across the first of what is now a collection of articles proclaiming an improvement in the US fiscal deficit. Being a skeptical sort I did a bit of cross checking, using government figures, mind you, and discovered there is both more and less to this tale than meets the eye.
On the 'less' side of the tale I find the 'improvement' in the deficit. The term 'deficit', at least as I understand it, is a flow figure. It refers to a shortfall of income relative to expenditure over the course of a period of time, usually a year. The sum of these deficits is a 'stock' figure, the debt. I bore you with this remedial accounting as preamble to my rather curious discovery. If, as the President, inter alios, avers, the deficit is shrinking, why is the debt still rising at a rapid pace?"
On the 'less' side of the tale I find the 'improvement' in the deficit. The term 'deficit', at least as I understand it, is a flow figure. It refers to a shortfall of income relative to expenditure over the course of a period of time, usually a year. The sum of these deficits is a 'stock' figure, the debt. I bore you with this remedial accounting as preamble to my rather curious discovery. If, as the President, inter alios, avers, the deficit is shrinking, why is the debt still rising at a rapid pace?"
11 July 2006
Uranium fever sends warm glow across the sector - Barry Fitzgerald - Opinion
Uranium fever sends warm glow across the sector - Barry Fitzgerald - Opinion: "STAND by for a second bull run in local uranium exploration/development stocks — one driven by a frenzy of merger and acquisition activity.
The second bull run is just starting to take shape and already it has emerged that there is likely to be three key playmakers — Canadian/Australian Mega Uranium, John Borshoff's Paladin and Toro Energy.
They are the ones with the fancy market capitalisations that can make things happen through scrip takeover bids for their smaller brethren."
The second bull run is just starting to take shape and already it has emerged that there is likely to be three key playmakers — Canadian/Australian Mega Uranium, John Borshoff's Paladin and Toro Energy.
They are the ones with the fancy market capitalisations that can make things happen through scrip takeover bids for their smaller brethren."
9 July 2006
The Shepherd Investment Strategist -But No Man Has A Right To Be Wrong In His Facts (Bernard Baruch 1870-1965)
The Shepherd Investment Strategist - A Service of JAS MTS Inc: "First of all, as I have pointed out in a number of voice updates, the makeup of the DJIA has been changed since just after the model’s sell signal and during the bear market in stocks that signal predicted. In late 1999, only a week after the sell signal, Chevron, Goodyear Tire, Sears Roebuck and Union Carbide were removed from the index and replaced by Intel, Microsoft, Home Depot, and SBC Communications. Later, in April 2004, International Paper, Eastman Kodak and AT&T were replaced by Verizon, AIG and Pfizer. The effect of these changes has been substantial. Although we cannot precisely measure the complete effect of these changes, due to the fact that some of these previous components were taken over by other companies or taken private, we can easily see the differential between some of them compared to the replacements.
For example, Sears (not the same company that is a holding company for the stores now) fared much worse from high to low in the bear market than did Home Depot. In fact, Home Depot was a big beneficiary of the-borrow- to-remodel boom that went along with low mortgage rates. Goodyear Tire did abominably after the market peaked in January 2000, much worse than any of its replacements. Later on, the old AT&T (not the company combined with SBC, named ‘at&t’) did far worse than any of its replacements, falling dramatically from its highs and never really recovering. The same obviously goes for Eastman Kodak and to a certain extent International Paper.
So, the question must be asked: is the near new high on today’s DJIA representative of an actual new high in the stock market? This is especially important to ask, since the latest changes in the index took place within the timeframe of the sell signal in the model. If you look at the facts"
For example, Sears (not the same company that is a holding company for the stores now) fared much worse from high to low in the bear market than did Home Depot. In fact, Home Depot was a big beneficiary of the-borrow- to-remodel boom that went along with low mortgage rates. Goodyear Tire did abominably after the market peaked in January 2000, much worse than any of its replacements. Later on, the old AT&T (not the company combined with SBC, named ‘at&t’) did far worse than any of its replacements, falling dramatically from its highs and never really recovering. The same obviously goes for Eastman Kodak and to a certain extent International Paper.
So, the question must be asked: is the near new high on today’s DJIA representative of an actual new high in the stock market? This is especially important to ask, since the latest changes in the index took place within the timeframe of the sell signal in the model. If you look at the facts"
Oxiana - look back at 2005
Asia Today Online ® - Asia is our Business: "MELBOURNE — The first major load of copper cathode will come out of the processing plant at the Khanong copper mine in Laos at the end of this month, promising a deepening of the country’s infant mineral sector.
The Australian company Oxiana began mining copper — the first copper mined in Laos — at the end of last year. By the end of 2005, the mine is expected to yield some 30,000 tonnes of copper. In full production, it will turn out double that. The mineral will be snapped up by buyers from neighbouring Southeast Asian countries.
Says Owen Hegarty, Founder and Chief Executive of mine operator Oxiana: “They can’t get enough of it. We are already getting faxes and emails every day for our copper. Buyers are virtually standing at the front gate.” Hegarty says the copper will be trucked to China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam."
The Australian company Oxiana began mining copper — the first copper mined in Laos — at the end of last year. By the end of 2005, the mine is expected to yield some 30,000 tonnes of copper. In full production, it will turn out double that. The mineral will be snapped up by buyers from neighbouring Southeast Asian countries.
Says Owen Hegarty, Founder and Chief Executive of mine operator Oxiana: “They can’t get enough of it. We are already getting faxes and emails every day for our copper. Buyers are virtually standing at the front gate.” Hegarty says the copper will be trucked to China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam."
4 July 2006
Copper climbs on strong fundamentals, eyes funds
Creamer Media's Mining Weekly Online, South African Mining News :: News Today: "Copper prices rose in thin trade on Tuesday, supported by a firmer tone in Shanghai futures, as investors focused on strong fundamentals and anticipated an influx of speculative funds into metals.
By 0414 GMT, London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months was up $95 or 1,3% at $7 370 a ton. On electronic trading platform Select, the metal had earlier traded between $7 320 and $7 475.
On Monday, copper ended down $45 at $7 275."
By 0414 GMT, London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months was up $95 or 1,3% at $7 370 a ton. On electronic trading platform Select, the metal had earlier traded between $7 320 and $7 475.
On Monday, copper ended down $45 at $7 275."
Copper up for 4th day, technical outlook improving | Reuters.com
Copper up for 4th day, technical outlook improving | Reuters.com: "SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Copper prices jumped for a fourth straight session on Monday, supported by sharp gains in Shanghai futures as investors kept bidding up the market due to strong fundamentals and an improved technical outlook.
By 0436 GMT, London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months was up $145 or 2.0 percent at $7,465 a tonne. On electronic trading platform Select, the metal had earlier traded between $7,430 and $7,480.
On Friday, copper ended up $15 at $7,320 after trading as high as $7,600, the highest since June 8. The market had rallied 8 percent on a weekly closing basis in London.
'I think it's reasonably healthy,' said Peter Richardson, chief metals economist at Deutsche Bank, adding that Friday's London close above a key resistance level of around $7,250 was important to maintain the momentum.
With mining companies still struggling with low grades of concentrate and labour disputes in Mexico and elsewhere, supplies are pretty tight, he said, even if the market is moving into the traditionally slow European summer period.
Prices of copper, used in construction and electronics and a barometer for industrial demand, reached a record $8,800 on May 11. Since then, the red metal has fallen 15 percent, but it is still up 70 percent from the end of last year.
LME dealers in Sydney, Tokyo and Shanghai said overall trade volume was thin as the U.S. market is closed.
Copper trading at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is closed on Monday and will remain shut on Tuesday for the U.S. Independence Day holiday"
By 0436 GMT, London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months
On Friday, copper ended up $15 at $7,320 after trading as high as $7,600, the highest since June 8. The market had rallied 8 percent on a weekly closing basis in London.
'I think it's reasonably healthy,' said Peter Richardson, chief metals economist at Deutsche Bank, adding that Friday's London close above a key resistance level of around $7,250 was important to maintain the momentum.
With mining companies still struggling with low grades of concentrate and labour disputes in Mexico and elsewhere, supplies are pretty tight, he said, even if the market is moving into the traditionally slow European summer period.
Prices of copper, used in construction and electronics and a barometer for industrial demand, reached a record $8,800 on May 11. Since then, the red metal has fallen 15 percent, but it is still up 70 percent from the end of last year.
LME dealers in Sydney, Tokyo and Shanghai said overall trade volume was thin as the U.S. market is closed.
Copper trading at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange is closed on Monday and will remain shut on Tuesday for the U.S. Independence Day holiday"
How to Survive and Thrive in the Resource Market
Kitco Commentaries - Dr. Richard S. Appel: "June 25, 2006 - The junior exploration market is a minefield to most who enter it. This is because few individuals are properly prepared to maneuver in it, and are thus fated to suffer the inevitable consequences. Yet, if properly approached I believe that junior stock speculation can greatly enhance an investor’s wealth.
An investor may wisely or luckily select a company’s stock that is destined for higher prices. Or, he may become entranced by one of the over-zealous promoters who convince him that his company’s future is destined for a meteoric rise. In either instance the investor may enjoy a roller coaster ride that takes his stock to dizzying heights, only to find it returning to or below his starting point when the meteor falls back to earth.
The purpose of this essay is not to deter investors from this market. My hope is to better educate and prepare the reader so that he or she can reap the rich rewards that it offers, while minimizing their losses.
In order to achieve this goal one must understand the true odds for a company’s lasting success, the players in this market, and the application of risk vs. reward when choosing a company. Further, the risk must be spread among a number of companies. In this fashion if one does well it should more than compensate for any losses produced by the others. Finally, and possibly of greatest importance is the absolute need to control one’s emotions, and especially our greed."
An investor may wisely or luckily select a company’s stock that is destined for higher prices. Or, he may become entranced by one of the over-zealous promoters who convince him that his company’s future is destined for a meteoric rise. In either instance the investor may enjoy a roller coaster ride that takes his stock to dizzying heights, only to find it returning to or below his starting point when the meteor falls back to earth.
The purpose of this essay is not to deter investors from this market. My hope is to better educate and prepare the reader so that he or she can reap the rich rewards that it offers, while minimizing their losses.
In order to achieve this goal one must understand the true odds for a company’s lasting success, the players in this market, and the application of risk vs. reward when choosing a company. Further, the risk must be spread among a number of companies. In this fashion if one does well it should more than compensate for any losses produced by the others. Finally, and possibly of greatest importance is the absolute need to control one’s emotions, and especially our greed."
3 July 2006
Warning From a Real World Economist
Kitco Commentaries - Tom Dyson: "To be a successful economist, you have to use government statistics. Government stats are an economist’s bread and butter. The thing is, according to Williams, you can’t take them at face value. Governments massage their statistics for political reasons. So in order to make accurate predictions, you have to know how the government puts its numbers together.
John Williams has dedicated twenty-five years to this dismal task.
“The longer I’ve looked at the numbers and the statistical series as they’ve evolved over the decades, the more that I’ve started finding things in the numbers that most people do not see.”
What has happened over time is that the methodologies employed to create the widely followed series… such as GDP, the CPI and the employment numbers, all have had biases built into them that result in overstating economic growth and understating inflation.
Real unemployment right now – figured the way that the average person thinks about unemployment, meaning figured the way it was estimated back during the great depression – is running about 12%. Real CPI right now is running about 8% And real GDP probably is in contraction.”
Williams says these adjustments occurred in very tiny steps over the years. As far as he’s aware, the first major adjustment was made during the Kennedy administration when they stripped out discouraged job seekers from the unemployment statistics. Adjustments have showed up in every administration since.
The Consumer Price Index gives a good example. “All in all, if you want to peel back changes that were made in the CPI going back to the Carter years, you’d see that the CPI would now be 3.5% to 4% higher. The difference that it makes is significant: if t"
John Williams has dedicated twenty-five years to this dismal task.
“The longer I’ve looked at the numbers and the statistical series as they’ve evolved over the decades, the more that I’ve started finding things in the numbers that most people do not see.”
What has happened over time is that the methodologies employed to create the widely followed series… such as GDP, the CPI and the employment numbers, all have had biases built into them that result in overstating economic growth and understating inflation.
Real unemployment right now – figured the way that the average person thinks about unemployment, meaning figured the way it was estimated back during the great depression – is running about 12%. Real CPI right now is running about 8% And real GDP probably is in contraction.”
Williams says these adjustments occurred in very tiny steps over the years. As far as he’s aware, the first major adjustment was made during the Kennedy administration when they stripped out discouraged job seekers from the unemployment statistics. Adjustments have showed up in every administration since.
The Consumer Price Index gives a good example. “All in all, if you want to peel back changes that were made in the CPI going back to the Carter years, you’d see that the CPI would now be 3.5% to 4% higher. The difference that it makes is significant: if t"
Copper may spurt on China factor
The Hindu Business Line : Copper may spurt on China factor: "Following less hawkish than expected Fed comments, commodity prices continued to extend their gains further across the board with crude oil, copper and gold moving higher. In addition, market fundamentals are supportive.
It is obvious, Fed hike and comments have soothed concerns over the impact that the inflation/growth trade-off might have on commodity demand, observed an analyst.
Leads surge
Indeed, copper has led the surge higher. Closing near at $7,300 a tonne on Thursday (up 5.8 per cent), the metal shot up to trade above $7,500 on Friday.
Declining warehouse inventories continue to support the market.
The upward movement is not surprising because the medium-term fundamentals for the base metal are supportive.
While technical analysts have been calling the end of the bull market in copper for some time now, demand-supply situation favours an upside to prices.
The demand side looks positive, while supply uncertainties continue to weigh on the market.
Prime Mover
It is no more the US, but China, with its huge appetite, which is the prime mover of the base metals market.
Those closely watching developments in the Chinese economy assert that demand drivers in the country are only getting stronger (infrastructure and construction sector) and that the copper market there is tight.
The Asian giant is world's largest consumer and has contributed to more than 60 per cent of the growth in demand over the past three years.
The decline in China's imports of copper in the first half of this year means a substantial drawdown of inventory there.
Gold's move
The second half could, therefore, witness a huge demand surge for raw material (in a tight supply situation) with its implication"
It is obvious, Fed hike and comments have soothed concerns over the impact that the inflation/growth trade-off might have on commodity demand, observed an analyst.
Leads surge
Indeed, copper has led the surge higher. Closing near at $7,300 a tonne on Thursday (up 5.8 per cent), the metal shot up to trade above $7,500 on Friday.
Declining warehouse inventories continue to support the market.
The upward movement is not surprising because the medium-term fundamentals for the base metal are supportive.
While technical analysts have been calling the end of the bull market in copper for some time now, demand-supply situation favours an upside to prices.
The demand side looks positive, while supply uncertainties continue to weigh on the market.
Prime Mover
It is no more the US, but China, with its huge appetite, which is the prime mover of the base metals market.
Those closely watching developments in the Chinese economy assert that demand drivers in the country are only getting stronger (infrastructure and construction sector) and that the copper market there is tight.
The Asian giant is world's largest consumer and has contributed to more than 60 per cent of the growth in demand over the past three years.
The decline in China's imports of copper in the first half of this year means a substantial drawdown of inventory there.
Gold's move
The second half could, therefore, witness a huge demand surge for raw material (in a tight supply situation) with its implication"
2 July 2006
As American economy goes into multidecade stagflation Indian outsourcing especially Bangalore and Hyderabad economies will collapse
IndiaDaily - As American economy goes into multidecade stagflation Indian outsourcing especially Bangalore and Hyderabad economies will collapse: "But again Indian pudits and oligarch are dead wrong. They do not realize what a great trap they are in. American and European economies are enetring multidecade stagflation that will eventually end in depression. As it unfolds over the next thirty years, Indian outsourcing economies will just collapse. That will destroy Bangalore and Hyderabad as we know today.
Again Indian oligarchs and quick money freedy politicians are wrong. They never understood the coming oil price hike. They never understood the coming gold price hike. They never understand anything till they suffer big time"
Again Indian oligarchs and quick money freedy politicians are wrong. They never understood the coming oil price hike. They never understood the coming gold price hike. They never understand anything till they suffer big time"
30 June 2006
A Fake FOMC Press Release Generator -- June 30, 2006
Instant Ben: A Fake FOMC Press Release Generator -- June 30, 2006: "The Committee isn't sure at all that a more accommodative than usual stance of monetary policy, coupled with significant underlying growth in wages, is providing mythic support to economic activity. However, the ebbing of crop-circle incidents has lowered, generally speaking, softwood prices, increased earnings upgrades, and decreased equity and debt markets. These developments, along with the restrictive stance of monetary policy and ongoing rapid increase in wages, should foster decreased economic stability over time"
29 June 2006
Liquidity growth essential to sustain bull mkts: Faber > > MARKET OUTLOOK > Marc Faber,Central Bank ,US,Middle East
Moneycontrol India > News > Liquidity growth essential to sustain bull mkts: Faber > > MARKET OUTLOOK > Marc Faber,Central Bank ,US,Middle East: "I think what has happened is that the rise in interest rates is symptomatic of relative tightening. I wouldn't call it a tightening in earnest because the rate of inflation is probably somewhat higher than the Fed fund rate in the US. Credit growth actually accelerated in the first quarter of this year in the US very sharply and so we don't have an absolute tightening."
Gold reserves set to disappear by 2020
World Gold Council > discover > Gold News: "The vice president of sales at Metals Economic Group (MEG), David Cox, speaking at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) conference has warned that gold reserves will be extinguished by 2020 if new discoveries are not made.
According to reports at miningmx.com, Mr Cox told delegates at the conference that action must be taken soon because if present levels of exploration and discovery were maintained reserves would not last any more than 14 years.
'I believe the world's gold majors have been good at replacing reserves but some of it has been from merger and acquisition activity and brown fields development,' he said.
'Only grassroots exploration can add production to the industry,' Mr Cox added.
MEG's statistics will also show that while over a quarter of the world's new mining projects are located in Africa, less than ten per cent of the total resources can be found on the continent, which could result in a potential supply shortage if things do not change. "
According to reports at miningmx.com, Mr Cox told delegates at the conference that action must be taken soon because if present levels of exploration and discovery were maintained reserves would not last any more than 14 years.
'I believe the world's gold majors have been good at replacing reserves but some of it has been from merger and acquisition activity and brown fields development,' he said.
'Only grassroots exploration can add production to the industry,' Mr Cox added.
MEG's statistics will also show that while over a quarter of the world's new mining projects are located in Africa, less than ten per cent of the total resources can be found on the continent, which could result in a potential supply shortage if things do not change. "
28 June 2006
Will The Federal Reserve Create The New Socialist Man? - Mises Institute
Will The Federal Reserve Create The New Socialist Man? - Mises Institute: "Personal character and money are linked. No, we are not implying that a person of great wealth is necessarily an individual with high character. All one needs to do is look at the moral sewer known as Wall Street in order to comprehend how a whole host of elites have traded their souls for mind-boggling sums of money.
The linkage between character and money has everything to do with self-ownership. Aside from one's body, the most personal property one may possess is the fruit of one's labor. In a capitalist society, typically, this labor gets rewarded in the form of money — a paycheck. Hence, a person's sense of value and self-worth is significantly influenced by how society values his labor — with money not only being that most personal asset, but also being the measuring rod. In days gone by, an individual developed character by learning that an honest day's work would be rewarded with honest money (i.e., gold). Never has there been a more stable measure of value than gold"
The linkage between character and money has everything to do with self-ownership. Aside from one's body, the most personal property one may possess is the fruit of one's labor. In a capitalist society, typically, this labor gets rewarded in the form of money — a paycheck. Hence, a person's sense of value and self-worth is significantly influenced by how society values his labor — with money not only being that most personal asset, but also being the measuring rod. In days gone by, an individual developed character by learning that an honest day's work would be rewarded with honest money (i.e., gold). Never has there been a more stable measure of value than gold"
THE FALLACY OF THE REVISED BRETTON WOODS HYPOTHESIS:
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College |: "The stability of the international financial system is in doubt. Analysis of the system has focused mainly on the sustainability of financing the U.S. trade deficit and has failed to understand the microeconomics of transactions within the system. According to this brief by Thomas I. Palley, the international financial system is unsustainable for reasons of demand, not supply. He recommends a global system of managed exchange rates to replace the current system before it crashes, along with the U.S. economy.
East Asian economies are pursuing export-led growth and running huge trade surpluses with the United States by actively pursuing policies aimed at maintaining undervalued exchange rates. Their governments continue to accumulate U.S. financial assets in order to support and stabilize the international financial system.While East Asian policymakers are correct in their belief that they can improve economic outcomes through exchange rate intervention, the system is undermining the structure of income and aggregate demand and eroding U.S. manufacturing capacity."
East Asian economies are pursuing export-led growth and running huge trade surpluses with the United States by actively pursuing policies aimed at maintaining undervalued exchange rates. Their governments continue to accumulate U.S. financial assets in order to support and stabilize the international financial system.While East Asian policymakers are correct in their belief that they can improve economic outcomes through exchange rate intervention, the system is undermining the structure of income and aggregate demand and eroding U.S. manufacturing capacity."
24 June 2006
Gaming HUI Corrections
Safe Haven | Gaming HUI Corrections: "After nearly five weeks of getting relentlessly hammered and eviscerated, it was great to see the flagship HUI unhedged gold stock index stabilize a bit this week. The HUI managed to find some support near its 200-day moving average and gave battered gold stock investors and speculators a chance to catch their breaths.
With the HUI plunging 31% over 23 trading days between May 10th and June 13th, the short-term pain for those who rode it down has been intense. But as always in the markets, there is a silver lining. At least two major things have been accomplished by the HUI's sharp decline which will help this bull's ultimate longevity."
With the HUI plunging 31% over 23 trading days between May 10th and June 13th, the short-term pain for those who rode it down has been intense. But as always in the markets, there is a silver lining. At least two major things have been accomplished by the HUI's sharp decline which will help this bull's ultimate longevity."
WSBTV.com - Health - Bird Flu Mutated In Family, WHO Says
WSBTV.com - Health - Bird Flu Mutated In Family, WHO Says: "JAKARTA, Indonesia -- The H5N1 bird flu virus mutated slightly in an Indonesian family that contracted the virus, according to a World Health Organization report.
But bird flu experts insist it doesn't increase the possibility of a human pandemic.
Seven of eight relatives who were infected died last month.
Experts said the virus slightly mutated in a 10-year-old boy, who is then suspected of passing the virus to his father.
An epidemiologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it's the first evidence of possible human-to-human-to-human transmission of the virus.
But he noted that the virus did not pass outside the family cluster and died with the father."
But bird flu experts insist it doesn't increase the possibility of a human pandemic.
Seven of eight relatives who were infected died last month.
Experts said the virus slightly mutated in a 10-year-old boy, who is then suspected of passing the virus to his father.
An epidemiologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it's the first evidence of possible human-to-human-to-human transmission of the virus.
But he noted that the virus did not pass outside the family cluster and died with the father."
Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate - New York Times
Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate - New York Times: "'I saw nothing that spoke to me of any manipulation,' said one member, Peter Bloomfield, a statistics professor at North Carolina State University. He added that his impression was the study was 'an honest attempt to construct a data analysis procedure.'
More broadly, the panel examined other recent research comparing the pronounced warming trend over the last several decades with temperature shifts over the last 2,000 years. It expressed high confidence that warming over the last 25 years exceeded any peaks since 1600. And in a news conference here today, three panelists said the current warming was probably, but not certainly, beyond any peaks since the year 900.
The experts said there was no reliable way to make estimates for surface-temperature trends in the first millennium A.D.
In the report, the panel stressed that the significant remaining uncertainties about climate patterns over the last 2,000 years did not weaken the scientific case that the current warming trend was caused mainly by people, through the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. "
More broadly, the panel examined other recent research comparing the pronounced warming trend over the last several decades with temperature shifts over the last 2,000 years. It expressed high confidence that warming over the last 25 years exceeded any peaks since 1600. And in a news conference here today, three panelists said the current warming was probably, but not certainly, beyond any peaks since the year 900.
The experts said there was no reliable way to make estimates for surface-temperature trends in the first millennium A.D.
In the report, the panel stressed that the significant remaining uncertainties about climate patterns over the last 2,000 years did not weaken the scientific case that the current warming trend was caused mainly by people, through the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. "
23 June 2006
Generational Dynamics - America's Manifest Destiny - War against Terror - Freedom and Democracy
Generational Dynamics - America's Manifest Destiny - War against Terror - Freedom and Democracy: "These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics for Historians, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
I am pleased to make this manuscript available online for questions, criticisms and comments. This manuscript will be under active continued development during the period it's online, so don't be surprised to see changes from day to day. The manuscript is still very rough in places, and some sections are not yet complete. "
I am pleased to make this manuscript available online for questions, criticisms and comments. This manuscript will be under active continued development during the period it's online, so don't be surprised to see changes from day to day. The manuscript is still very rough in places, and some sections are not yet complete. "
Advice to Invest Less in U.S. Bonds
Advice to Invest Less in U.S. Bonds: "A former U.S. Treasury secretary is advising some of the world's biggest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds that they ought to find much better ways to invest their money.
Lawrence H. Summers, who headed the Treasury in the last 18 months of the Clinton administration, has argued in recent speeches that developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa should put much of their excess funds into stocks. Too often, he contends, the central banks of those countries invest their hoards of foreign securities -- now totaling several trillion dollars -- in safe but low-yielding U.S. Treasurys."
Lawrence H. Summers, who headed the Treasury in the last 18 months of the Clinton administration, has argued in recent speeches that developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa should put much of their excess funds into stocks. Too often, he contends, the central banks of those countries invest their hoards of foreign securities -- now totaling several trillion dollars -- in safe but low-yielding U.S. Treasurys."
Gold Derivatives: Da Goldman Code
commentary31: "Gibson's Paradox is a phenomenon first observed under the classical gold standard, when long-term interest rates moved in tandem with the general price level. It was a paradox precisely because rates moved with actual prices rather than inflationary expectations. In a similar vein, recent research makes the case that actual gold prices are a far better predictor of interest rates and inflation than other more frequently used measures. D. Ranson, Why gold, not oil is the superior predictor of inflation, (H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics study, published by World Gold Council, November 2005).
Precisely because it anticipates inflation so well, gold is also a powerful predictor of nominal interest interest rates, both long and short. This, in fact, is a more rigorous test of the relative powers of gold and oil, because bond market performance is an objective indicator, and is free from many of the errors of measurement that bedevil the official indices of inflation. In similar research on short-term interest rates we have obtained very similar results.
Our calculations show that the time frame that yields the optimum correlation (0.73) between changes in the price of gold and changes in the 10-year T-bond rate is about twelve months. ... These results reveal two respects in which the information in the gold price is superior [to oil prices]: gold provides a much earlier warning, and the correlation with interest rates is significantly tighter regardless of the time frame.
* * * * *
The investment applications of gold are numerous, but not widely recognized. Analysts often try to anticipate where the price of gold is heading; however, knowing where it has already been is far more fruitful. Despite growing recognition of gold's forecasting power, investors schooled to believe that gold is a 'barbarous relic'"
Precisely because it anticipates inflation so well, gold is also a powerful predictor of nominal interest interest rates, both long and short. This, in fact, is a more rigorous test of the relative powers of gold and oil, because bond market performance is an objective indicator, and is free from many of the errors of measurement that bedevil the official indices of inflation. In similar research on short-term interest rates we have obtained very similar results.
Our calculations show that the time frame that yields the optimum correlation (0.73) between changes in the price of gold and changes in the 10-year T-bond rate is about twelve months. ... These results reveal two respects in which the information in the gold price is superior [to oil prices]: gold provides a much earlier warning, and the correlation with interest rates is significantly tighter regardless of the time frame.
* * * * *
The investment applications of gold are numerous, but not widely recognized. Analysts often try to anticipate where the price of gold is heading; however, knowing where it has already been is far more fruitful. Despite growing recognition of gold's forecasting power, investors schooled to believe that gold is a 'barbarous relic'"
HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Miami, Florida
HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Miami, Florida: "Trend06/21/20061 month3 month6 month9 month
Median Price$390,000-1.3%-2.3%-2.5%-6.7%
Inventory35,346+5.6%+21.4%+73.3%+148.0%"
Median Price$390,000-1.3%-2.3%-2.5%-6.7%
Inventory35,346+5.6%+21.4%+73.3%+148.0%"
Inflation Ravages U.S. Wages, Fueling Angst at Bush's Economy
Bloomberg.com: U.S.: "June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Americans' wage gains are evaporating as inflation accelerates, helping explain why confidence in the economy isn't soaring along with job growth.
Weekly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.7 percent last month and are down 0.2 percent over the past year, according to a report last week by the Labor Department. Pay has been flat or declined in more than half of the 65 months since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office.
Those numbers contrast with other government reports showing incomes for all workers staying a step ahead of prices, highlighting a growing disparity between the wealthy and those of more modest means. The difference may explain why the economy's performance isn't translating into greater popularity for Bush, whose poll ratings hover near record lows. "
Weekly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.7 percent last month and are down 0.2 percent over the past year, according to a report last week by the Labor Department. Pay has been flat or declined in more than half of the 65 months since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office.
Those numbers contrast with other government reports showing incomes for all workers staying a step ahead of prices, highlighting a growing disparity between the wealthy and those of more modest means. The difference may explain why the economy's performance isn't translating into greater popularity for Bush, whose poll ratings hover near record lows. "
No new evidence WMDs were stockpiled
Kansas City Star | 06/23/2006 | No new evidence WMDs were stockpiled: "Intelligence officials say the records on prewar Iraq come in a partly declassified report.
By WARREN P. STROBEL
“This is an incredibly … significant finding.” “… a desperate claim by those who wish that we could find some new way to rationalize the ongoing devastation in Iraq.”
Sen. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Jane Harman, California Democrat
WASHINGTON | - WASHINGTON | A new, partly declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein stockpiled weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S.-led invasion, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion."
By WARREN P. STROBEL
“This is an incredibly … significant finding.” “… a desperate claim by those who wish that we could find some new way to rationalize the ongoing devastation in Iraq.”
Sen. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Jane Harman, California Democrat
WASHINGTON | - WASHINGTON | A new, partly declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein stockpiled weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S.-led invasion, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion."
20 June 2006
US household deficit spending: a rendezvous with reality
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
19 June 2006
Institutional policy and the veneer of civilization
Dude, where's the Dharma: Institutional policy and the veneer of civilization: "It is a feature of the leading institutions of any empire to look the wrong way at the wrong time- to try an old technique when its time has past. 6 years ago I think the US population would have accepted (with some grumbling) a cleansing recession that restored a degree of balance to international trade. In the event, the Neo-cons beat out the Larry Lindsey's and Paul O'Neill's and the military option, one of the oldest tricks in the book, was the policy option on which the Bush Presidency's credibility was spent.
One of the ironies of history is summed up by this quote from Jean de La Fountaine: A person often meets his destiny on the path he took to avoid it. It will be ironic indeed is those who claimed the end of history will have been instrumental in reviving the cycle, if such proves to be the case."
One of the ironies of history is summed up by this quote from Jean de La Fountaine: A person often meets his destiny on the path he took to avoid it. It will be ironic indeed is those who claimed the end of history will have been instrumental in reviving the cycle, if such proves to be the case."
18 June 2006
Nation's love affair with McMansions shows signs of waning: South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Nation's love affair with McMansions shows signs of waning: South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "The golden age of McMansions may be coming to an end. These oversized homes _ characterized by sprawling layouts on small lots, and built in cookie-cutter style by big developers _ fueled much of the housing boom. But thanks to rising energy and mortgage costs, shrinking families and a growing number of retirement-age baby boomers set on downsizing, there are signs of an emerging glut.
Interviews with dozens of real-estate agents, sellers, developers and housing economists turn up signs across the country. In an affluent Dallas ZIP Code, where half the houses have four bedrooms or more, home sales fell 31 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. But sales rose 23 percent in a nearby ZIP Code where 7 percent of houses have that many bedrooms. In Santa Fe, N.M., homes in the 2,000-square-foot range sell within weeks, while larger ones languish for months, says broker Pat French. In the Boston metro area, sales of homes with four or more bedrooms were flat in the first quarter from a year earlier; sales of homes with three bedrooms or fewer rose 14 percent. New Jersey appraiser Jeffrey Otteau says the inventory level statewide for large, $1 million-plus houses stands at 13 months, more than twice the state's overall average of six months"
Interviews with dozens of real-estate agents, sellers, developers and housing economists turn up signs across the country. In an affluent Dallas ZIP Code, where half the houses have four bedrooms or more, home sales fell 31 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. But sales rose 23 percent in a nearby ZIP Code where 7 percent of houses have that many bedrooms. In Santa Fe, N.M., homes in the 2,000-square-foot range sell within weeks, while larger ones languish for months, says broker Pat French. In the Boston metro area, sales of homes with four or more bedrooms were flat in the first quarter from a year earlier; sales of homes with three bedrooms or fewer rose 14 percent. New Jersey appraiser Jeffrey Otteau says the inventory level statewide for large, $1 million-plus houses stands at 13 months, more than twice the state's overall average of six months"
Big Correction in Australia
#: "Ouch! That hurt. Despite Friday's bounce the sharemarket has endured a sobering reversal in the last month and is still down about 7.5 per cent from it's peak on May 11. When the smoke cleared on Friday, I decided to find out which stocks had been the 'correction busters"
US household deficit spending: a rendezvous with reality
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Rob Parenteau is a global strategist for RCM
As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
17 June 2006
Why a Global Economic Deluge Looms
Gabriel Kolko: Why a Global Economic Deluge Looms: "People who know the most about the world financial system are increasingly worried, and for very good reasons. Dire warnings are coming from the most 'respectable' sources. Reality has gotten out of hand. The demons of greed are loose.
What is that reality? It includes a number of factors. Alone they would be exceedingly serious; combined, they are very likely to be lethal.
First of all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been undergoing both a structural and intellectual crisis. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations--and even less income than its expensive operations require. It is now in deficit.1
A large part of the IMF's problems are due to the doubling in world prices for all commodities since 2003 -- especially petroleum, copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and the like -- that the developing nations traditionally export. While there will be fluctuations in this upsurge, there is also reason to think it may endure because rapid economic growth in China, India, and elsewhere has created a burgeoning demand that did not exist before, when the balance-of-trade systematically favored the rich nations. "
What is that reality? It includes a number of factors. Alone they would be exceedingly serious; combined, they are very likely to be lethal.
First of all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been undergoing both a structural and intellectual crisis. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations--and even less income than its expensive operations require. It is now in deficit.1
A large part of the IMF's problems are due to the doubling in world prices for all commodities since 2003 -- especially petroleum, copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and the like -- that the developing nations traditionally export. While there will be fluctuations in this upsurge, there is also reason to think it may endure because rapid economic growth in China, India, and elsewhere has created a burgeoning demand that did not exist before, when the balance-of-trade systematically favored the rich nations. "
15 June 2006
Why Arabian investors should buy and hold gold! | Financial Planning
Why Arabian investors should buy and hold gold! | Financial Planning: "Arabian investors should be piling into gold at these price levels. For the recent rout of gold prices is entirely down to a concerted attack on gold by the central banks, and the fundamental factors supporting the gold price have got stronger and not weaker.
First, the US dollar is weakening against most currencies. This is supportive of gold which is priced in US dollars. Most currency analysts now believe the dollar is heading lower, and that will keep the gold price rising at least in dollar terms.
Secondly, inflation is now re-appearing all over the world as a menace to economic growth and capital market stability. Gold is the classic 'safe haven' investment and a hedge against inflation.
Safe haven status
Therefore, Arabian investors who want to preserve their wealth in this environment should buy gold and not equities or bonds whose future is much more open to doubt. Indeed, the weakness seen on global capital markets in the past month may be just a sign of days to come, perhaps this autumn, with a full scale financial crisis"
First, the US dollar is weakening against most currencies. This is supportive of gold which is priced in US dollars. Most currency analysts now believe the dollar is heading lower, and that will keep the gold price rising at least in dollar terms.
Secondly, inflation is now re-appearing all over the world as a menace to economic growth and capital market stability. Gold is the classic 'safe haven' investment and a hedge against inflation.
Safe haven status
Therefore, Arabian investors who want to preserve their wealth in this environment should buy gold and not equities or bonds whose future is much more open to doubt. Indeed, the weakness seen on global capital markets in the past month may be just a sign of days to come, perhaps this autumn, with a full scale financial crisis"
Gold Investors Bet on Price Recovery
Bloomberg.com: Canada: "June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold investors, undeterred by the metal's 22 percent drop in a month, increased their holdings of bullion-backed securities in the past two weeks, indicating they expect prices to rebound.
Exchange Traded Gold, which manages gold-backed securities, had 452 metric tons of gold under management as of yesterday, compared with 443 tons on June 1, Simon Village, principal of the London-based company said in an interview. Its gold-backed securities trade on exchanges in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, France and South Africa.
``If they were going to bolt, they'd have done it at a higher level, when it started to fall,'' Village said in the interview from London. ``Gold's got a second wind coming.'' "
Exchange Traded Gold, which manages gold-backed securities, had 452 metric tons of gold under management as of yesterday, compared with 443 tons on June 1, Simon Village, principal of the London-based company said in an interview. Its gold-backed securities trade on exchanges in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, France and South Africa.
``If they were going to bolt, they'd have done it at a higher level, when it started to fall,'' Village said in the interview from London. ``Gold's got a second wind coming.'' "
China's new economic growth mode is good news to the world
People's Daily Online -- China's new economic growth mode is good news to the world: "Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, said in his latest economic review that although China is more influential than any other economy in the world in terms of pushing up global demand for bulk commodities, the new policy made by the Chinese leadership indicates a major shift of the country's growth model --- from high-resources consumption manner to low-resources consumption. He believes this strategy would not only facilitate China's sustainable development, but also well serve the global economy.
Statistics show astonishing proportion of China's contribution to the increase in world's industrial material consumption. Among which, consumption of aluminum increased by 50%, iron ore by 84%, steel by 108%, cement 115%, zinc 120%, and copper and nickel even by triple. China has become the largest consumer of copper, nickel and zinc. Apparently the Chinese economy is mainly based on bulk commodities consuming industrial production and driven by fixed investment and export.
When many think this trend will go on limitless, the Chinese leaders have wisely made the new growth guideline. Stephen Roach expects that the new strategy would bring significant effect to China's economic growth features, and even influence the financial market and global economy.
Stephen Roach also interpreted the newly promulgated 11th Five-year Plan, and found that China would focus more on boosting its domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In his forecast, in the future 5 years, China will maintain annual GDP growth of 7.5% and reduce its resource consumption by 20% per GDP by 2010.
He regards all of this as an implication that the process of China's economic re-balancing has begun.
By Pe"
Statistics show astonishing proportion of China's contribution to the increase in world's industrial material consumption. Among which, consumption of aluminum increased by 50%, iron ore by 84%, steel by 108%, cement 115%, zinc 120%, and copper and nickel even by triple. China has become the largest consumer of copper, nickel and zinc. Apparently the Chinese economy is mainly based on bulk commodities consuming industrial production and driven by fixed investment and export.
When many think this trend will go on limitless, the Chinese leaders have wisely made the new growth guideline. Stephen Roach expects that the new strategy would bring significant effect to China's economic growth features, and even influence the financial market and global economy.
Stephen Roach also interpreted the newly promulgated 11th Five-year Plan, and found that China would focus more on boosting its domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In his forecast, in the future 5 years, China will maintain annual GDP growth of 7.5% and reduce its resource consumption by 20% per GDP by 2010.
He regards all of this as an implication that the process of China's economic re-balancing has begun.
By Pe"
SCO has made fruitful achievements
The Hindu News Update Service: "Shanghai, June. 15 (PTI): Chinese President Hu Jintao today said the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has made 'fruitful achievements' during the past five years in safeguarding regional peace, security and development.
'The establishment of the SCO five years ago opened up new ways for our six countries to deepen good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial cooperation. After five years, we have made fruitful achievements in our friendly relations and cooperation,' Hu, host of the Fifth SCO Summit said.
Apart from China, the summit involves leaders of SCO member countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgysstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan and four observer countries including India.
In his opening address, Hu, also General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China said the summit would review and summarise the progress and experience of the SCO, look at the current situation and plans for the next step of the organisation.
The summit started at the Shanghai International Convention Centre with red carpets and handshakes between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from the other five member countries -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. "
'The establishment of the SCO five years ago opened up new ways for our six countries to deepen good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial cooperation. After five years, we have made fruitful achievements in our friendly relations and cooperation,' Hu, host of the Fifth SCO Summit said.
Apart from China, the summit involves leaders of SCO member countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgysstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan and four observer countries including India.
In his opening address, Hu, also General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China said the summit would review and summarise the progress and experience of the SCO, look at the current situation and plans for the next step of the organisation.
The summit started at the Shanghai International Convention Centre with red carpets and handshakes between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from the other five member countries -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. "
14 June 2006
Gold owners dismiss price distress
www.miningmx.com | gold_silver Gold owners dismiss price distress: "We tend to worry about the day-to-day price, but the evidence shows that the US has increased money supply about 54% to $10 trillion in the last five years,' Watchorn said.
However, Watchorn sounded a note of caution. 'If the gold price drops below $550/oz, the bull trend would be reversed. That's my personal view,' he said.
Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, one of South Africa's marginal producers, said that Tuesday's severe correction did not reverse the general up-trend in the gold market.
'I looked at some charts earlier today and on December 21 saw that the gold price was $490/oz. That means I'm still $100/oz ahead of where I was six months ago,' Wellesley-Wood said."
However, Watchorn sounded a note of caution. 'If the gold price drops below $550/oz, the bull trend would be reversed. That's my personal view,' he said.
Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, one of South Africa's marginal producers, said that Tuesday's severe correction did not reverse the general up-trend in the gold market.
'I looked at some charts earlier today and on December 21 saw that the gold price was $490/oz. That means I'm still $100/oz ahead of where I was six months ago,' Wellesley-Wood said."
Market Observations
Market Observations: "&P 500 decisively penetrated the neckline after 2 intraday rally attempts that failed. There are 3 numbers to watch for now. The first is 1209.7, that is the projection of the ABC down pattern the market is having. A side, being 1326.7-1245.7 , B side, being 1245.7-1290.75 and C side, projected to be 1290.75-1209.7, given that A=C. The second number to watch for is 1168.2 the reaction low of last October and the third number is 1165 which is the projection of the Head and Shoulders top. "
BOJ May Wait Until July to Raise Rates
Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary: "June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan will probably leave interest rates unchanged this week, waiting until July to raise borrowing costs from close to zero percent for the first time in almost six years.
Nine of 15 economists expect the bank to increase its key overnight rate as early as July, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. All predicted the bank will keep rates on hold after a two-day meeting ends June 15 so that it can review the quarterly Tankan business confidence survey on July 3.
Japan's zero-rate policy, designed to beat seven years of falling consumer prices, now risks kindling inflation as companies start to pass on higher raw material costs. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in a May 31 interview that ``upward pressure on prices will increase'' as the economy heads for its longest postwar expansion. "
Nine of 15 economists expect the bank to increase its key overnight rate as early as July, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. All predicted the bank will keep rates on hold after a two-day meeting ends June 15 so that it can review the quarterly Tankan business confidence survey on July 3.
Japan's zero-rate policy, designed to beat seven years of falling consumer prices, now risks kindling inflation as companies start to pass on higher raw material costs. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in a May 31 interview that ``upward pressure on prices will increase'' as the economy heads for its longest postwar expansion. "
China's import of copper falls 23 percent
China's import of copper falls 23 percent: "China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were higher on the international market than the domestic market, also dampened the enthusiasm of importers and speculators, the paper quoted Hu Bin, an analyst of Zhejiang Yong'an Futures Company as saying.
Hu said copper importers were losing 5,000-6,000 yuan (625-750 U.S. dollars) per ton due to the price gap.
Spurred by surging copper prices and high profit, Chinese copper enterprises have been expanding smelting capacity since 2003.
The expansion has resulted in excessive production capacity, experts said, warning that the rapid growth of copper smelting could leave domestic raw materials in short supply.
In the late 2005, five ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, jointly published a circular restricting investment in copper smelting.
It is expected that China's copper output will grow over 8 percent to around 2.8 million tons in 2006. In the first four months this year, China's refined copper output grew 26.7 percent to 937,000 tons.China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were h"
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were higher on the international market than the domestic market, also dampened the enthusiasm of importers and speculators, the paper quoted Hu Bin, an analyst of Zhejiang Yong'an Futures Company as saying.
Hu said copper importers were losing 5,000-6,000 yuan (625-750 U.S. dollars) per ton due to the price gap.
Spurred by surging copper prices and high profit, Chinese copper enterprises have been expanding smelting capacity since 2003.
The expansion has resulted in excessive production capacity, experts said, warning that the rapid growth of copper smelting could leave domestic raw materials in short supply.
In the late 2005, five ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, jointly published a circular restricting investment in copper smelting.
It is expected that China's copper output will grow over 8 percent to around 2.8 million tons in 2006. In the first four months this year, China's refined copper output grew 26.7 percent to 937,000 tons.China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were h"
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