10 December 2006
A Brief, Superficial, and Arbitrary History of Property-Price Collapses
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "The Anderson Forecast team at UCLA might restore one’s hope that academic economists fulfill a productive function. Having disparaged the California housing boom through its ascent, a springtime presentation by one of its economists predicted the swoon that has come to pass. Alas, he stumbled. Asked if a real estate crash was in store, he reverted to form: Southern California is in no way comparable to such one-industry towns as Houston, and besides, California had never suffered a real estate meltdown. On the first point, with 2% of adults in California now proudly waving real estate licenses to sell, houses to California today may be as dominant a force as oil to Houston in the 1980s. On the second point, one of the worst real estate debacles in the history of the United States occurred on the ground where he stood."