29 January 2009

Shane Oliver's real work

As Zaphod Beeblebrox's shrink noted. "Zaphod's just this guy, you know." Well that might also be said about me, except I am less well known than the

President of the Galaxy. I'll conceed I'm well read, curious and not subject to the herd mentality; as suggested by my total lack of interest in guys kicking

a ball around a field.

In 2007 I was screaming at the TV and laying heavy rants on all and sundry in the hood, they are still barelling up to me these days, with; "Geezes, Kev, you

was right, whadda should I do". I usually reply, "Buy Gold via the Perth Mint Certificate program and switch to allocated when it starts to really ramp" and

generally, worry more about the return of your money and the preservation of its purchasing power than nominal returns implied by glowing phosphors or ink on

paper, no matter how proud and established the letterhead."

Ones gob is smacked by two things, the way the major players and commentators drive via the rear vision mirror, their desperation for a return to "normal" in

"six to twelve months" and the insistance that the worse is past and therefore its "too late to sell."

I'm not going to tell you Shane is wrong, but I suspect he is probably, well, even likely, completely and absolutely dead wrong.

What I will tell you is that he speaks for the pack of finanosaurs that ate the real economy, the dead weight of rentiers and "advisors" and housing loan

cookie cutters who's tunnel vision and greed drove them into an eternal search for trailing commissions and leveraged buyouts with US lines of credit pre

spun into candy floss money.

In mirror filled caves the finanosaurs became so fat with clout that they have survived the impact that blew out the cave and its mirrors and live, for now,

on reserves. They will not survive the comming winter.

As for Shane. He seems a nice guy, but his job is as much one of defending the status quo and keeping you in his game as offering disspassionate views about

actual economic prospects.

Its a shame, Shane, because if the coupon clipers and commish men could face reality they might have a chance of switching paradigms, raising cash and buying

assets down the road dirt cheap with Australian savings, setting themselves and us up for life, if not, as likely, they will be driven to sell at the bottom

like everybody else will be, from your exhaustion and frustration with the fact that they BS'ed you all the way down and the realisation that there is no way


Make up your own mind and don't feed your denial. Hedge your bets, get out of debt and when people throw things at you when you mention stocks and the death

of equities is a headline, buy a little for the kids.

Above all, steer your own course and don't listen to finanosaurs who tell you that asteroids don't strike.

So go back and look at his record since mid 2007 and show me where he has offered you, or the government, or his own sector fearless advice and acurate


I will be pleased to admit I was wrong.

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