28 February 2009

A reader's resources on systemic collapse

Thanks so much to Bones, who proves out the collabarative power of the internet.

Additional information and resources.

=====

My definition of an expert in any field is a person who knows enough about
what's really going on to be scared.
- P. J. Plauger, Computer Language, March 1983

-----

Economic Depression, Civil Unrest and the breakdown of order in America.

The resources I've enclosed below are by credible people - professionals,
educators, journalists, policy makers, businessmen and nationally and
internationally recognized experts.

For example, Joseph M. Miller retired as a board member of the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange. One of his associates is a physicist who worked for
Control Data Corporation. The other, Marion Butler, has a background as a
CFO. Niall Ferguson holds a Chair in the history department at Harvard.

There's an article by Israeli historian Martin van Creveld. Dr. Krassimir
Petrov is from Prince Sultan University, Saudi Arabia. Pranab Bardhan is a
professor of economics at Berkley. David Rosenberg is Merril Lynch's North
American Economist. Carmen M. Reinhart is a professor of economics at the
University of Maryland. Phil Howison is from Victoria University, Wellington,
New Zealand. Professor Michael T. Klare is from Hampshire College.

Most of the other resources (enclosed below) were prepared by people with
similar backgrounds. Individually, and as a group, their work appears to lead
to the same general conclusion: Life as we've always known it is just about
over.

S.

Warren "Bones"
Author and Researcher
wrsteel@blackhawke.net


=====


First, a couple of news items:


====
http://tinyurl.com/8qqnto
February 19, 2009
The U.S. Economy is being Marched to the Gallows Predictions of
hyperinflation, dollar decline and civil unrest
by Andrew Hughes

On Bankruptcies:
http://www.nbkrc.com/

http://tinyurl.com/av8we5
U.S. Personal Bankruptcies Climbed 34% in January (Update1)
By Christopher Scinta
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg)

=====
http://tinyurl.com/c9haq2
Company crashes set to hit record next year
Financial Times
07-Dec-2008
By Richard Milne and Anousha Sakoui in London

Record numbers of companies will go bankrupt next year with 200,000
insolvencies in Europe alone and "an explosion" of failed businesses in the
US, according to the world's largest credit insurer.

The US will see 62,000 companies go bust next year, compared with 42,000 this
year and 28,000 last year, says a report by Euler Hermes, part of German
insurer Allianz.

=====
http://tinyurl.com/akxvfg
Xanadu, Perhaps a Folly for Our Times
By PETER APPLEBOME
February 21, 2009
NYT

< snip >
Howard Davidowitz, the chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a national retail
consulting firm and investment bank, said the concept of mixed entertainment
and retail at the Meadowlands was a high-stakes idea that might have
succeeded in a better economy.

"We're going to close 220,000 retail stores this year," he said. "Who's doing
well? Family Dollar. Dollar Tree. Wal-Mart, McDonald's. Netflix. Consumers
have no money. This is the total opposite of what's succeeding. It's not
viable in this market."
< snip >

=====
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=47995
Commercial Real Estate Leaves An Awkward Taste
Feb. 06, 2009
Nicholas Jones
Analyst, Oxbury Research
www.oxburyresearch.com

=====
http://tinyurl.com/cjhkqu
Experts predict tougher times ahead of commercial real estate market
Washington Business Journal -
by Mara Lee Staff Reporter
Tuesday, February 3, 2009

=====
http://tinyurl.com/b2z5xo
IMF Says Advanced Economies Already in Depression (Update1)
By Angus Whitley and Shamim Adam

=====
http://tinyurl.com/6xpbl4
Worse than the Great Depression.
by Dr. Krassimir Petrov
Prince Sultan University, Saudi Arabia
February 2, 2009

=====
http://tinyurl.com/bjbppy
"Some Inconvenient Truths"
David Rosenberg
Merril Lynch's North American Economist.

=====
http://tinyurl.com/d2j9b6
Increasing Number of States Declaring Sovereignty
Posted on February 8th, 2009 by David-Crockett

=====
Map located here:
http://tinyurl.com/d3xnvm

=====
http://tinyurl.com/cfbvdq
February 19, 2009
Firestorm Brewing Between U.S. States and Federal Government
by Lance L. Landon
www.opednews.com

=====
http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/
http://tinyurl.com/b4us3g
Majority Of U.S. States Join Sovereignty Movement, Assert 10th Amendment
Rights
February 23, 2009

=====
http://tomazgreco.wordpress.com/2007/02/12/41/
California Split
by Gar Alperovitz
February 10, 2007
New York Times

Something interesting is happening in California. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
eems to have grasped the essential truth that no nation - not even the nited
States - can be managed successfully from the center once it reaches certain
scale.

=====
http://tinyurl.com/dbr53p
Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production
by Eric deCarbonnel

=====
http://tinyurl.com/ab87tj
A grim warning on food shortages Ian Sample
January 27, 2009

=====
http://tinyurl.com/bq4k3s
Brzezinski warns of riots in US
Sat, 21 Feb 2009 15:34:12 GMT

=====
http://tinyurl.com/alcwds
WTO chief warns of looming political unrest
BERLIN (AFP)
Feb 7, 2009

=====
http://tinyurl.com/arkvnd
Rapidly Collapsing U.S. Foreign Policy
BY HERSCHEL SMITH

=====
http://www.pensiontsunami.com/
http://www.shadowstats.com/

=====
http://tinyurl.com/create.php
Auction-Rate Bonds Claim Victims Year After Collapse (Update1)
By Michael McDonald
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg)

=====
http://tinyurl.com/deaf8x
Bank of America, AmEx May Suffer on Card Defaults (Update3)
By Hugh Son
Feb. 19, 2009 (Bloomberg)
(ed. Collapse in credit card 'deritivatives.')

=====


Now, for more scholarly references and resources:


====
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5855
Foreign Policy In Focus Asia: The Coming Fury
Walden Bello | February 9, 2009
Editor: John Feffer

=====
http://tinyurl.com/avzo9w
THE RISE AND FALL OF CIVILIZATIONS
December 2001
By Joseph M. Miller, Daan Joubert, Marion Butler

-----
http://tinyurl.com/dcjnn2
Empires with Expiration Dates
By Niall Ferguson
September/October 2006

-----
http://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm
Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age
Joshua S. Goldstein
New Haven: Yale University Press, 1988.

-----
http://tinyurl.com/cdwvyj
The Rise and Decline of the State
By special arrangement with the publisher (Cambridge University Press), the
Mises Institute is very pleased to make available this hugely important work
by the Israeli historian Martin van Creveld.

-----
http://tinyurl.com/bvv7xc
The Decline of the Nation State
Phil Howison
Victoria University, Wellington,
New Zealand
October, 2006

-----
http://tinyurl.com/ctrkkg
World Trade Order and the Beginning of the Decline of the Washington,
Consensus
Howard Wachtel
International Politics and Society, 3/2000, 2000

-----
http://www.socresonline.org.uk/1/3/1.html
Beyond the Nation-State: National Identity and Citizenship in a Multicultural
Society - A Response to Rex
by Gerard Delanty
Department of Sociology, University of Liverpool
Received: 17/7/96
Accepted: 11/9/96
Published: 2/10/96

-----
http://capec.gmu.edu/conference/Iggers-paper.doc
Nationalism and Historiography
Georg G. Iggers
George Mason University
October 28, 2005-10-15

=====
http://www.jeffvail.net/thenewmap.pdf
The New Map: Terrorism and the Decline of the Nation State in a Post-Cartesian
World
Jeff Vail

-----
http://tinyurl.com/cjtc7d
THE THIRD WAVE
By Alvin Toffler

-----
http://tinyurl.com/d5xh8h
Economic Revolution Alvin Toffler forecasts conflict on rough seas of economic
change
By John Dunn

-----

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1067
Eight hundred years of financial folly
Carmen M. Reinhart
19 April 2008

-----
http://tinyurl.com/dhbtfn
Paul Saffo Predicts End Of U.S. Economic Model
By Adario Strange,
September 11, 2007

-----
http://tinyurl.com/b3n8kb
http://tinyurl.com/br9syx
Collapse of the US dollar: Global systemic crisis. The phase of global
geopolitical dislocation
by GEAB
Global Research, February 17, 2009
GEAB N°32

-----
http://tinyurl.com/c5g3au
Long Waves in Economics and International Politics
Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratieff (1892 - 1938)
University of Washington

=====
http://www.itif.org/files/PastandFutureSummary.pdf
The Past and Future of America's Economy: Long Waves of Innovation that Drive
Cycles of Growth
(Edward Elgar, 2005)

=====
http://tinyurl.com/ca965z
"Decentralization, Corruption And Government Accountability: An Overview,
Pranab Bardhan and Dilip Mookherjee
2005-06
Boston University

-----
also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_corruption
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index
http://people.bu.edu/dilipm/publications/decorr.pdf

-----
http://tinyurl.com/ajxm63
Property Rights, Land Reforms, and the Hidden Architecture of Capitalism
By Craig J. Richardson
Thursday, April 6, 2006

=====
http://tinyurl.com/6ktbo9
Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy
Development,
Authored by Mr. Nathan P. Freier.
Senior Fellow, International Security Program
CSIS

=====
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.645:
HR 645 IH 111th CONGRESS 1st Session H. R. 645 To direct the Secretary of
Homeland Security to establish national emergency centers on military
installations.

=====
http://tinyurl.com/3sendx
Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1
3rd Infantry's 1st BCT trains for a new dwell-time mission. Helping people at
home may become a permanent part of the active Army
By Gina Cavallaro - Staff writer
Sep 30, 2008
Army Times

=====
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6476
Overkill: The Rise of Paramilitary Police Raids in America.
by Radley Balko

=====
http://tinyurl.com/djann4
Urban Warfare Drills Linked To Coming Economic Rage
Prison Planet.com
Monday, February 23, 2009

=====
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/published/pentagonsnewmap.htm
The Pentagon's New Map
Thomas P.M. Barnett, U.S. Naval War College

-----
Although some information is dated, and while some of his own premises are
somewhat suspect, Thomas Chittum provides one likely scenario about the
breakup of America:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/misc/CWII.pdf
Civil War Two by Thomas W. Chittum

=====
http://tinyurl.com/d8lb52
Faith and Survival; Surviving the Unthinkable
Glenn Beck
transcript

=====
http://tinyurl.com/amhmlx
Second American Revolution to Begin in 2009?
January 13, 2009
by: Allison Bricker

=====
http://tinyurl.com/aanbqc
Professor Igor Panarin: When America fell to pieces the shouting was
outrageous
26 November, 2008

=====
http://tinyurl.com/cec9dw
A Planet at the Brink: Will Economic Brushfires Prove Too Virulent to
Contain?
By Professor Michael T. Klare
Hampshire College

=====
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov
http://tinyurl.com/3d4tmx
The Five Stages of Collapse
Dmitry Orlov
FEBRUARY 22, 2008

=====

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure
Cascading failure
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

-----
http://tinyurl.com/dj9npj
Self-correcting Information Cascades
Jacob K. Goeree, Thomas R. Palfrey, Brian W. Rogers, and Richard D. McKelvey

-----
http://tinyurl.com/codugd
Monday, 24 May 2004
CASCADING SYSTEM FAILURE

=====
google: 'Endogenous innovation waves and economic growth' "Social Wave-Front
Analysis" 'Long Waves of Innovation' 'Long Waves in Economics and
International Politics' 'Elliot Waves and Civilization.' 'THE BIG PICTURE:
RESOURCE COLLAPSE'

-------------------------------------------------------

4 comments:

Shea said...

interesting, although I'm not going to research it right now, already depressed about the prospects of it all. I linked, and will probably put you on the hidden world's, side bar
thanks

Phil Howison / Pacific Empire said...

Thanks for the link!

Anonymous said...

Love this site, keep up the great work.
Rossco

Cori said...

Nice group of links putting things into perspective.

Thanks for putting this up! Nice site!