11 November 2008

Unemployment by industry: The US must Brace for Impact

Friday the Labor Department disgorged a mountain of ugly unemployment data. Another``surprising'' jump in joblessness made headlines.

iTulip has observed and analyzed changes in the US economy for over ten years. In the current economic cycle, since 2006, we have focused on median duration of unemployment to give us early warning of rising unemployment.

Here we extend that analysis to point us to where unemployment is headed overall and also delve into 14 major industry sectors, including one you work in, to fine tune our forecast.

There is no doubt in our minds that this is The Big One -- a depression is all but certain unless the US develops and executes a post WWII scale stimulus plan starting in 2009, but the structure of that stimulus is critical to avoid turning the US into a sclerotic economy dominated by large corporations and big government. In any case, we forecast 10 million jobs lost by the end of next year.

charts itulip

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