If TPTB manage to keep the U.S. financial system from collapsing into a heap of smoldering rubble, staving off total economic meltdown, defined as:
a. DJIA dropping three thousand points or more
b. Banking panics, failures, and runs leading to a "Bank holiday" being declared
c. Collapse of the derivatives markets to the point where virtually no trades are being made amongst the former casino players
d. The bankruptcy or declared insolvency of at least ten more major financial institutions
...on or before October 16th, 2008 (one month from today's date), I will, forthwith and without delay or reservation:
1. Post a public apology to this board for ever stating "This is it. We are scroomed."
2. Immediately cancel my user privileges on this board, never to post here again under any name whatsoever
3. Go re-join the sheeple race
This agreement being duly sworn and executed in the presence of the entire community of PrudentBear readers and posters by:
(Sign Here): Rasputin
(Date): September 16th, 2008"
(Ras): Now, fast-forward to today. (My how time flies. Blink and literally a month whizzes by!)
Have any of my criterion been met?
Let's find out:
Starting with criteria "a":
"The collapse of the DJIA by three-thousand points".
At the time I made the declaration, the DJIA was at approximately:
11,300
And today?
It closed at:
8557.
A loss of approximately:
Two-thousand, seven-hundred points.
Pretty darn close. (And it had actually collapsed down to 8500 on Friday, October 10th, a loss of nearly the full three thousand points, so technically my condition was effectively met at that point.)
So, I'm gonna give that criteria a "check" as being "close enough for government work" to being accomplished.
Next, what about criteria "b":
"Banking panics, failures leading to a "Bank holiday being declared"?
Well, we actually had the ENTIRE WORLD'S banking system fail...simultaneously!...not just isolated banking failures, as I had implied in my original declaration.
Furthermore, the only reason a "bank holiday" wasn't officially instituted is because TPTB was lucky enough to have to staggered into the weeked of October 11th/12th (even as the entire banking AND financial sytem was collapsing), then met in panic sessions all weekend long, then on SUNDAY NIGHT released coordinated statements announcing that, literally, every single bank in the world was being effectively nationalized by their respective governments AND being offered infinite backstops of fiat by central banks.
So, I'm also gonna score that criteria as a "check", because if that ain't a systemic banking failure, then I don't know what is.
But what about criteria "c":
"The collapse of the derivatives markets to the point where virtually no trades are being made amongst the former casino players"?
Hmmm, since the gamblers can't even seem to agree on the positions with which they are now stuck regarding the OLD bets at this point, I believe it is safe to assume that no great amount of CDOs/Squareds/Cubeds/CPDOs, or other exotic instruments are being created..especially after the nationalization of every single large financial institution on the planet by TPTB. I just can't accept that the central banks and national governments are gonna be in any mood to allow the gamblers that have threatend everyone's very existence now put on a bunch of poorly-documented bets against each other.
So, let's make that "check" number three, shall we?
Finally, what about criteria "d":
"The bankruptcy or declared insolvency of at least ten more major financial institutions?"
Sheesh, I wish it were ONLY ten major major financial institutions that had failed since September 16th. Instead, as I pointed out above, literally ALL of them failed, worldwide, simultaneously. Furthermore, so serious and threatening was this synchronized collapse, that ALL central banks and ALL governments followed up with "Infinite Fiat" backstops, nationalizations, monetizations, guarantees of all loans going forward, the FDIC guaranteeing ALL bank's bonds too--plus all the efforts so deeply detailed in my Rasipedia posts, the last one which can be found here:
Tens of trillions of fiatscos flung and/or committed to being flung
(Ras Conclusion): And now for the bad news: It looks like my four criteria for continuing to post here have been either effectively met or so completely exceeded that I really see no other choice than to continue making snide comments on the end of the world as we know it.
So, I'm sorry to report that you all will have to continue to suffer through my rants, raves and tirades for at least a while longer--until the "next step" taken by TPTB (see below).
However, I will be honest here: much of the fight has been taken out of me after this last weekend. The unprecedented, massive, coordinated action by the world's governments and central banks in nationalizing the entire planet's financial system was just too overwhelming for my teeny Rasputin brain to assimilate. Now, as I work through the fog of this stunning action by TPTB, I am more and more just resigned to our fate that "Resistance if futile" and that no matter how much the people protest (or how many ranting missives I write), the game is already over.
And TPTB won.
Even if the equity indices and credit markets continue to collapse--as they appear to be doing so--it just doesn't matter.
Because the NEXT move by these people who are desperate to hold on to their power is indeed going to be...desperate, and I don't even want get into the details.
So, please allow me to finish this post with the obligatory:
We're scroomed.
Because after all, we are.
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