30 June 2006
A Fake FOMC Press Release Generator -- June 30, 2006
Instant Ben: A Fake FOMC Press Release Generator -- June 30, 2006: "The Committee isn't sure at all that a more accommodative than usual stance of monetary policy, coupled with significant underlying growth in wages, is providing mythic support to economic activity. However, the ebbing of crop-circle incidents has lowered, generally speaking, softwood prices, increased earnings upgrades, and decreased equity and debt markets. These developments, along with the restrictive stance of monetary policy and ongoing rapid increase in wages, should foster decreased economic stability over time"
29 June 2006
Liquidity growth essential to sustain bull mkts: Faber > > MARKET OUTLOOK > Marc Faber,Central Bank ,US,Middle East
Moneycontrol India > News > Liquidity growth essential to sustain bull mkts: Faber > > MARKET OUTLOOK > Marc Faber,Central Bank ,US,Middle East: "I think what has happened is that the rise in interest rates is symptomatic of relative tightening. I wouldn't call it a tightening in earnest because the rate of inflation is probably somewhat higher than the Fed fund rate in the US. Credit growth actually accelerated in the first quarter of this year in the US very sharply and so we don't have an absolute tightening."
Gold reserves set to disappear by 2020
World Gold Council > discover > Gold News: "The vice president of sales at Metals Economic Group (MEG), David Cox, speaking at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) conference has warned that gold reserves will be extinguished by 2020 if new discoveries are not made.
According to reports at miningmx.com, Mr Cox told delegates at the conference that action must be taken soon because if present levels of exploration and discovery were maintained reserves would not last any more than 14 years.
'I believe the world's gold majors have been good at replacing reserves but some of it has been from merger and acquisition activity and brown fields development,' he said.
'Only grassroots exploration can add production to the industry,' Mr Cox added.
MEG's statistics will also show that while over a quarter of the world's new mining projects are located in Africa, less than ten per cent of the total resources can be found on the continent, which could result in a potential supply shortage if things do not change. "
According to reports at miningmx.com, Mr Cox told delegates at the conference that action must be taken soon because if present levels of exploration and discovery were maintained reserves would not last any more than 14 years.
'I believe the world's gold majors have been good at replacing reserves but some of it has been from merger and acquisition activity and brown fields development,' he said.
'Only grassroots exploration can add production to the industry,' Mr Cox added.
MEG's statistics will also show that while over a quarter of the world's new mining projects are located in Africa, less than ten per cent of the total resources can be found on the continent, which could result in a potential supply shortage if things do not change. "
28 June 2006
Will The Federal Reserve Create The New Socialist Man? - Mises Institute
Will The Federal Reserve Create The New Socialist Man? - Mises Institute: "Personal character and money are linked. No, we are not implying that a person of great wealth is necessarily an individual with high character. All one needs to do is look at the moral sewer known as Wall Street in order to comprehend how a whole host of elites have traded their souls for mind-boggling sums of money.
The linkage between character and money has everything to do with self-ownership. Aside from one's body, the most personal property one may possess is the fruit of one's labor. In a capitalist society, typically, this labor gets rewarded in the form of money — a paycheck. Hence, a person's sense of value and self-worth is significantly influenced by how society values his labor — with money not only being that most personal asset, but also being the measuring rod. In days gone by, an individual developed character by learning that an honest day's work would be rewarded with honest money (i.e., gold). Never has there been a more stable measure of value than gold"
The linkage between character and money has everything to do with self-ownership. Aside from one's body, the most personal property one may possess is the fruit of one's labor. In a capitalist society, typically, this labor gets rewarded in the form of money — a paycheck. Hence, a person's sense of value and self-worth is significantly influenced by how society values his labor — with money not only being that most personal asset, but also being the measuring rod. In days gone by, an individual developed character by learning that an honest day's work would be rewarded with honest money (i.e., gold). Never has there been a more stable measure of value than gold"
THE FALLACY OF THE REVISED BRETTON WOODS HYPOTHESIS:
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College |: "The stability of the international financial system is in doubt. Analysis of the system has focused mainly on the sustainability of financing the U.S. trade deficit and has failed to understand the microeconomics of transactions within the system. According to this brief by Thomas I. Palley, the international financial system is unsustainable for reasons of demand, not supply. He recommends a global system of managed exchange rates to replace the current system before it crashes, along with the U.S. economy.
East Asian economies are pursuing export-led growth and running huge trade surpluses with the United States by actively pursuing policies aimed at maintaining undervalued exchange rates. Their governments continue to accumulate U.S. financial assets in order to support and stabilize the international financial system.While East Asian policymakers are correct in their belief that they can improve economic outcomes through exchange rate intervention, the system is undermining the structure of income and aggregate demand and eroding U.S. manufacturing capacity."
East Asian economies are pursuing export-led growth and running huge trade surpluses with the United States by actively pursuing policies aimed at maintaining undervalued exchange rates. Their governments continue to accumulate U.S. financial assets in order to support and stabilize the international financial system.While East Asian policymakers are correct in their belief that they can improve economic outcomes through exchange rate intervention, the system is undermining the structure of income and aggregate demand and eroding U.S. manufacturing capacity."
24 June 2006
Gaming HUI Corrections
Safe Haven | Gaming HUI Corrections: "After nearly five weeks of getting relentlessly hammered and eviscerated, it was great to see the flagship HUI unhedged gold stock index stabilize a bit this week. The HUI managed to find some support near its 200-day moving average and gave battered gold stock investors and speculators a chance to catch their breaths.
With the HUI plunging 31% over 23 trading days between May 10th and June 13th, the short-term pain for those who rode it down has been intense. But as always in the markets, there is a silver lining. At least two major things have been accomplished by the HUI's sharp decline which will help this bull's ultimate longevity."
With the HUI plunging 31% over 23 trading days between May 10th and June 13th, the short-term pain for those who rode it down has been intense. But as always in the markets, there is a silver lining. At least two major things have been accomplished by the HUI's sharp decline which will help this bull's ultimate longevity."
WSBTV.com - Health - Bird Flu Mutated In Family, WHO Says
WSBTV.com - Health - Bird Flu Mutated In Family, WHO Says: "JAKARTA, Indonesia -- The H5N1 bird flu virus mutated slightly in an Indonesian family that contracted the virus, according to a World Health Organization report.
But bird flu experts insist it doesn't increase the possibility of a human pandemic.
Seven of eight relatives who were infected died last month.
Experts said the virus slightly mutated in a 10-year-old boy, who is then suspected of passing the virus to his father.
An epidemiologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it's the first evidence of possible human-to-human-to-human transmission of the virus.
But he noted that the virus did not pass outside the family cluster and died with the father."
But bird flu experts insist it doesn't increase the possibility of a human pandemic.
Seven of eight relatives who were infected died last month.
Experts said the virus slightly mutated in a 10-year-old boy, who is then suspected of passing the virus to his father.
An epidemiologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it's the first evidence of possible human-to-human-to-human transmission of the virus.
But he noted that the virus did not pass outside the family cluster and died with the father."
Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate - New York Times
Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate - New York Times: "'I saw nothing that spoke to me of any manipulation,' said one member, Peter Bloomfield, a statistics professor at North Carolina State University. He added that his impression was the study was 'an honest attempt to construct a data analysis procedure.'
More broadly, the panel examined other recent research comparing the pronounced warming trend over the last several decades with temperature shifts over the last 2,000 years. It expressed high confidence that warming over the last 25 years exceeded any peaks since 1600. And in a news conference here today, three panelists said the current warming was probably, but not certainly, beyond any peaks since the year 900.
The experts said there was no reliable way to make estimates for surface-temperature trends in the first millennium A.D.
In the report, the panel stressed that the significant remaining uncertainties about climate patterns over the last 2,000 years did not weaken the scientific case that the current warming trend was caused mainly by people, through the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. "
More broadly, the panel examined other recent research comparing the pronounced warming trend over the last several decades with temperature shifts over the last 2,000 years. It expressed high confidence that warming over the last 25 years exceeded any peaks since 1600. And in a news conference here today, three panelists said the current warming was probably, but not certainly, beyond any peaks since the year 900.
The experts said there was no reliable way to make estimates for surface-temperature trends in the first millennium A.D.
In the report, the panel stressed that the significant remaining uncertainties about climate patterns over the last 2,000 years did not weaken the scientific case that the current warming trend was caused mainly by people, through the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. "
23 June 2006
Generational Dynamics - America's Manifest Destiny - War against Terror - Freedom and Democracy
Generational Dynamics - America's Manifest Destiny - War against Terror - Freedom and Democracy: "These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics for Historians, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
I am pleased to make this manuscript available online for questions, criticisms and comments. This manuscript will be under active continued development during the period it's online, so don't be surprised to see changes from day to day. The manuscript is still very rough in places, and some sections are not yet complete. "
I am pleased to make this manuscript available online for questions, criticisms and comments. This manuscript will be under active continued development during the period it's online, so don't be surprised to see changes from day to day. The manuscript is still very rough in places, and some sections are not yet complete. "
Advice to Invest Less in U.S. Bonds
Advice to Invest Less in U.S. Bonds: "A former U.S. Treasury secretary is advising some of the world's biggest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds that they ought to find much better ways to invest their money.
Lawrence H. Summers, who headed the Treasury in the last 18 months of the Clinton administration, has argued in recent speeches that developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa should put much of their excess funds into stocks. Too often, he contends, the central banks of those countries invest their hoards of foreign securities -- now totaling several trillion dollars -- in safe but low-yielding U.S. Treasurys."
Lawrence H. Summers, who headed the Treasury in the last 18 months of the Clinton administration, has argued in recent speeches that developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa should put much of their excess funds into stocks. Too often, he contends, the central banks of those countries invest their hoards of foreign securities -- now totaling several trillion dollars -- in safe but low-yielding U.S. Treasurys."
Gold Derivatives: Da Goldman Code
commentary31: "Gibson's Paradox is a phenomenon first observed under the classical gold standard, when long-term interest rates moved in tandem with the general price level. It was a paradox precisely because rates moved with actual prices rather than inflationary expectations. In a similar vein, recent research makes the case that actual gold prices are a far better predictor of interest rates and inflation than other more frequently used measures. D. Ranson, Why gold, not oil is the superior predictor of inflation, (H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics study, published by World Gold Council, November 2005).
Precisely because it anticipates inflation so well, gold is also a powerful predictor of nominal interest interest rates, both long and short. This, in fact, is a more rigorous test of the relative powers of gold and oil, because bond market performance is an objective indicator, and is free from many of the errors of measurement that bedevil the official indices of inflation. In similar research on short-term interest rates we have obtained very similar results.
Our calculations show that the time frame that yields the optimum correlation (0.73) between changes in the price of gold and changes in the 10-year T-bond rate is about twelve months. ... These results reveal two respects in which the information in the gold price is superior [to oil prices]: gold provides a much earlier warning, and the correlation with interest rates is significantly tighter regardless of the time frame.
* * * * *
The investment applications of gold are numerous, but not widely recognized. Analysts often try to anticipate where the price of gold is heading; however, knowing where it has already been is far more fruitful. Despite growing recognition of gold's forecasting power, investors schooled to believe that gold is a 'barbarous relic'"
Precisely because it anticipates inflation so well, gold is also a powerful predictor of nominal interest interest rates, both long and short. This, in fact, is a more rigorous test of the relative powers of gold and oil, because bond market performance is an objective indicator, and is free from many of the errors of measurement that bedevil the official indices of inflation. In similar research on short-term interest rates we have obtained very similar results.
Our calculations show that the time frame that yields the optimum correlation (0.73) between changes in the price of gold and changes in the 10-year T-bond rate is about twelve months. ... These results reveal two respects in which the information in the gold price is superior [to oil prices]: gold provides a much earlier warning, and the correlation with interest rates is significantly tighter regardless of the time frame.
* * * * *
The investment applications of gold are numerous, but not widely recognized. Analysts often try to anticipate where the price of gold is heading; however, knowing where it has already been is far more fruitful. Despite growing recognition of gold's forecasting power, investors schooled to believe that gold is a 'barbarous relic'"
HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Miami, Florida
HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Miami, Florida: "Trend06/21/20061 month3 month6 month9 month
Median Price$390,000-1.3%-2.3%-2.5%-6.7%
Inventory35,346+5.6%+21.4%+73.3%+148.0%"
Median Price$390,000-1.3%-2.3%-2.5%-6.7%
Inventory35,346+5.6%+21.4%+73.3%+148.0%"
Inflation Ravages U.S. Wages, Fueling Angst at Bush's Economy
Bloomberg.com: U.S.: "June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Americans' wage gains are evaporating as inflation accelerates, helping explain why confidence in the economy isn't soaring along with job growth.
Weekly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.7 percent last month and are down 0.2 percent over the past year, according to a report last week by the Labor Department. Pay has been flat or declined in more than half of the 65 months since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office.
Those numbers contrast with other government reports showing incomes for all workers staying a step ahead of prices, highlighting a growing disparity between the wealthy and those of more modest means. The difference may explain why the economy's performance isn't translating into greater popularity for Bush, whose poll ratings hover near record lows. "
Weekly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.7 percent last month and are down 0.2 percent over the past year, according to a report last week by the Labor Department. Pay has been flat or declined in more than half of the 65 months since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office.
Those numbers contrast with other government reports showing incomes for all workers staying a step ahead of prices, highlighting a growing disparity between the wealthy and those of more modest means. The difference may explain why the economy's performance isn't translating into greater popularity for Bush, whose poll ratings hover near record lows. "
No new evidence WMDs were stockpiled
Kansas City Star | 06/23/2006 | No new evidence WMDs were stockpiled: "Intelligence officials say the records on prewar Iraq come in a partly declassified report.
By WARREN P. STROBEL
“This is an incredibly … significant finding.” “… a desperate claim by those who wish that we could find some new way to rationalize the ongoing devastation in Iraq.”
Sen. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Jane Harman, California Democrat
WASHINGTON | - WASHINGTON | A new, partly declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein stockpiled weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S.-led invasion, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion."
By WARREN P. STROBEL
“This is an incredibly … significant finding.” “… a desperate claim by those who wish that we could find some new way to rationalize the ongoing devastation in Iraq.”
Sen. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Jane Harman, California Democrat
WASHINGTON | - WASHINGTON | A new, partly declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein stockpiled weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S.-led invasion, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion."
20 June 2006
US household deficit spending: a rendezvous with reality
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
19 June 2006
Institutional policy and the veneer of civilization
Dude, where's the Dharma: Institutional policy and the veneer of civilization: "It is a feature of the leading institutions of any empire to look the wrong way at the wrong time- to try an old technique when its time has past. 6 years ago I think the US population would have accepted (with some grumbling) a cleansing recession that restored a degree of balance to international trade. In the event, the Neo-cons beat out the Larry Lindsey's and Paul O'Neill's and the military option, one of the oldest tricks in the book, was the policy option on which the Bush Presidency's credibility was spent.
One of the ironies of history is summed up by this quote from Jean de La Fountaine: A person often meets his destiny on the path he took to avoid it. It will be ironic indeed is those who claimed the end of history will have been instrumental in reviving the cycle, if such proves to be the case."
One of the ironies of history is summed up by this quote from Jean de La Fountaine: A person often meets his destiny on the path he took to avoid it. It will be ironic indeed is those who claimed the end of history will have been instrumental in reviving the cycle, if such proves to be the case."
18 June 2006
Nation's love affair with McMansions shows signs of waning: South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Nation's love affair with McMansions shows signs of waning: South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "The golden age of McMansions may be coming to an end. These oversized homes _ characterized by sprawling layouts on small lots, and built in cookie-cutter style by big developers _ fueled much of the housing boom. But thanks to rising energy and mortgage costs, shrinking families and a growing number of retirement-age baby boomers set on downsizing, there are signs of an emerging glut.
Interviews with dozens of real-estate agents, sellers, developers and housing economists turn up signs across the country. In an affluent Dallas ZIP Code, where half the houses have four bedrooms or more, home sales fell 31 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. But sales rose 23 percent in a nearby ZIP Code where 7 percent of houses have that many bedrooms. In Santa Fe, N.M., homes in the 2,000-square-foot range sell within weeks, while larger ones languish for months, says broker Pat French. In the Boston metro area, sales of homes with four or more bedrooms were flat in the first quarter from a year earlier; sales of homes with three bedrooms or fewer rose 14 percent. New Jersey appraiser Jeffrey Otteau says the inventory level statewide for large, $1 million-plus houses stands at 13 months, more than twice the state's overall average of six months"
Interviews with dozens of real-estate agents, sellers, developers and housing economists turn up signs across the country. In an affluent Dallas ZIP Code, where half the houses have four bedrooms or more, home sales fell 31 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. But sales rose 23 percent in a nearby ZIP Code where 7 percent of houses have that many bedrooms. In Santa Fe, N.M., homes in the 2,000-square-foot range sell within weeks, while larger ones languish for months, says broker Pat French. In the Boston metro area, sales of homes with four or more bedrooms were flat in the first quarter from a year earlier; sales of homes with three bedrooms or fewer rose 14 percent. New Jersey appraiser Jeffrey Otteau says the inventory level statewide for large, $1 million-plus houses stands at 13 months, more than twice the state's overall average of six months"
Big Correction in Australia
#: "Ouch! That hurt. Despite Friday's bounce the sharemarket has endured a sobering reversal in the last month and is still down about 7.5 per cent from it's peak on May 11. When the smoke cleared on Friday, I decided to find out which stocks had been the 'correction busters"
US household deficit spending: a rendezvous with reality
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Rob Parenteau is a global strategist for RCM
As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
17 June 2006
Why a Global Economic Deluge Looms
Gabriel Kolko: Why a Global Economic Deluge Looms: "People who know the most about the world financial system are increasingly worried, and for very good reasons. Dire warnings are coming from the most 'respectable' sources. Reality has gotten out of hand. The demons of greed are loose.
What is that reality? It includes a number of factors. Alone they would be exceedingly serious; combined, they are very likely to be lethal.
First of all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been undergoing both a structural and intellectual crisis. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations--and even less income than its expensive operations require. It is now in deficit.1
A large part of the IMF's problems are due to the doubling in world prices for all commodities since 2003 -- especially petroleum, copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and the like -- that the developing nations traditionally export. While there will be fluctuations in this upsurge, there is also reason to think it may endure because rapid economic growth in China, India, and elsewhere has created a burgeoning demand that did not exist before, when the balance-of-trade systematically favored the rich nations. "
What is that reality? It includes a number of factors. Alone they would be exceedingly serious; combined, they are very likely to be lethal.
First of all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been undergoing both a structural and intellectual crisis. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations--and even less income than its expensive operations require. It is now in deficit.1
A large part of the IMF's problems are due to the doubling in world prices for all commodities since 2003 -- especially petroleum, copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and the like -- that the developing nations traditionally export. While there will be fluctuations in this upsurge, there is also reason to think it may endure because rapid economic growth in China, India, and elsewhere has created a burgeoning demand that did not exist before, when the balance-of-trade systematically favored the rich nations. "
15 June 2006
Why Arabian investors should buy and hold gold! | Financial Planning
Why Arabian investors should buy and hold gold! | Financial Planning: "Arabian investors should be piling into gold at these price levels. For the recent rout of gold prices is entirely down to a concerted attack on gold by the central banks, and the fundamental factors supporting the gold price have got stronger and not weaker.
First, the US dollar is weakening against most currencies. This is supportive of gold which is priced in US dollars. Most currency analysts now believe the dollar is heading lower, and that will keep the gold price rising at least in dollar terms.
Secondly, inflation is now re-appearing all over the world as a menace to economic growth and capital market stability. Gold is the classic 'safe haven' investment and a hedge against inflation.
Safe haven status
Therefore, Arabian investors who want to preserve their wealth in this environment should buy gold and not equities or bonds whose future is much more open to doubt. Indeed, the weakness seen on global capital markets in the past month may be just a sign of days to come, perhaps this autumn, with a full scale financial crisis"
First, the US dollar is weakening against most currencies. This is supportive of gold which is priced in US dollars. Most currency analysts now believe the dollar is heading lower, and that will keep the gold price rising at least in dollar terms.
Secondly, inflation is now re-appearing all over the world as a menace to economic growth and capital market stability. Gold is the classic 'safe haven' investment and a hedge against inflation.
Safe haven status
Therefore, Arabian investors who want to preserve their wealth in this environment should buy gold and not equities or bonds whose future is much more open to doubt. Indeed, the weakness seen on global capital markets in the past month may be just a sign of days to come, perhaps this autumn, with a full scale financial crisis"
Gold Investors Bet on Price Recovery
Bloomberg.com: Canada: "June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold investors, undeterred by the metal's 22 percent drop in a month, increased their holdings of bullion-backed securities in the past two weeks, indicating they expect prices to rebound.
Exchange Traded Gold, which manages gold-backed securities, had 452 metric tons of gold under management as of yesterday, compared with 443 tons on June 1, Simon Village, principal of the London-based company said in an interview. Its gold-backed securities trade on exchanges in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, France and South Africa.
``If they were going to bolt, they'd have done it at a higher level, when it started to fall,'' Village said in the interview from London. ``Gold's got a second wind coming.'' "
Exchange Traded Gold, which manages gold-backed securities, had 452 metric tons of gold under management as of yesterday, compared with 443 tons on June 1, Simon Village, principal of the London-based company said in an interview. Its gold-backed securities trade on exchanges in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, France and South Africa.
``If they were going to bolt, they'd have done it at a higher level, when it started to fall,'' Village said in the interview from London. ``Gold's got a second wind coming.'' "
China's new economic growth mode is good news to the world
People's Daily Online -- China's new economic growth mode is good news to the world: "Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, said in his latest economic review that although China is more influential than any other economy in the world in terms of pushing up global demand for bulk commodities, the new policy made by the Chinese leadership indicates a major shift of the country's growth model --- from high-resources consumption manner to low-resources consumption. He believes this strategy would not only facilitate China's sustainable development, but also well serve the global economy.
Statistics show astonishing proportion of China's contribution to the increase in world's industrial material consumption. Among which, consumption of aluminum increased by 50%, iron ore by 84%, steel by 108%, cement 115%, zinc 120%, and copper and nickel even by triple. China has become the largest consumer of copper, nickel and zinc. Apparently the Chinese economy is mainly based on bulk commodities consuming industrial production and driven by fixed investment and export.
When many think this trend will go on limitless, the Chinese leaders have wisely made the new growth guideline. Stephen Roach expects that the new strategy would bring significant effect to China's economic growth features, and even influence the financial market and global economy.
Stephen Roach also interpreted the newly promulgated 11th Five-year Plan, and found that China would focus more on boosting its domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In his forecast, in the future 5 years, China will maintain annual GDP growth of 7.5% and reduce its resource consumption by 20% per GDP by 2010.
He regards all of this as an implication that the process of China's economic re-balancing has begun.
By Pe"
Statistics show astonishing proportion of China's contribution to the increase in world's industrial material consumption. Among which, consumption of aluminum increased by 50%, iron ore by 84%, steel by 108%, cement 115%, zinc 120%, and copper and nickel even by triple. China has become the largest consumer of copper, nickel and zinc. Apparently the Chinese economy is mainly based on bulk commodities consuming industrial production and driven by fixed investment and export.
When many think this trend will go on limitless, the Chinese leaders have wisely made the new growth guideline. Stephen Roach expects that the new strategy would bring significant effect to China's economic growth features, and even influence the financial market and global economy.
Stephen Roach also interpreted the newly promulgated 11th Five-year Plan, and found that China would focus more on boosting its domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In his forecast, in the future 5 years, China will maintain annual GDP growth of 7.5% and reduce its resource consumption by 20% per GDP by 2010.
He regards all of this as an implication that the process of China's economic re-balancing has begun.
By Pe"
SCO has made fruitful achievements
The Hindu News Update Service: "Shanghai, June. 15 (PTI): Chinese President Hu Jintao today said the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has made 'fruitful achievements' during the past five years in safeguarding regional peace, security and development.
'The establishment of the SCO five years ago opened up new ways for our six countries to deepen good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial cooperation. After five years, we have made fruitful achievements in our friendly relations and cooperation,' Hu, host of the Fifth SCO Summit said.
Apart from China, the summit involves leaders of SCO member countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgysstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan and four observer countries including India.
In his opening address, Hu, also General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China said the summit would review and summarise the progress and experience of the SCO, look at the current situation and plans for the next step of the organisation.
The summit started at the Shanghai International Convention Centre with red carpets and handshakes between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from the other five member countries -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. "
'The establishment of the SCO five years ago opened up new ways for our six countries to deepen good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial cooperation. After five years, we have made fruitful achievements in our friendly relations and cooperation,' Hu, host of the Fifth SCO Summit said.
Apart from China, the summit involves leaders of SCO member countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgysstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan and four observer countries including India.
In his opening address, Hu, also General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China said the summit would review and summarise the progress and experience of the SCO, look at the current situation and plans for the next step of the organisation.
The summit started at the Shanghai International Convention Centre with red carpets and handshakes between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from the other five member countries -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. "
14 June 2006
Gold owners dismiss price distress
www.miningmx.com | gold_silver Gold owners dismiss price distress: "We tend to worry about the day-to-day price, but the evidence shows that the US has increased money supply about 54% to $10 trillion in the last five years,' Watchorn said.
However, Watchorn sounded a note of caution. 'If the gold price drops below $550/oz, the bull trend would be reversed. That's my personal view,' he said.
Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, one of South Africa's marginal producers, said that Tuesday's severe correction did not reverse the general up-trend in the gold market.
'I looked at some charts earlier today and on December 21 saw that the gold price was $490/oz. That means I'm still $100/oz ahead of where I was six months ago,' Wellesley-Wood said."
However, Watchorn sounded a note of caution. 'If the gold price drops below $550/oz, the bull trend would be reversed. That's my personal view,' he said.
Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, one of South Africa's marginal producers, said that Tuesday's severe correction did not reverse the general up-trend in the gold market.
'I looked at some charts earlier today and on December 21 saw that the gold price was $490/oz. That means I'm still $100/oz ahead of where I was six months ago,' Wellesley-Wood said."
Market Observations
Market Observations: "&P 500 decisively penetrated the neckline after 2 intraday rally attempts that failed. There are 3 numbers to watch for now. The first is 1209.7, that is the projection of the ABC down pattern the market is having. A side, being 1326.7-1245.7 , B side, being 1245.7-1290.75 and C side, projected to be 1290.75-1209.7, given that A=C. The second number to watch for is 1168.2 the reaction low of last October and the third number is 1165 which is the projection of the Head and Shoulders top. "
BOJ May Wait Until July to Raise Rates
Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary: "June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan will probably leave interest rates unchanged this week, waiting until July to raise borrowing costs from close to zero percent for the first time in almost six years.
Nine of 15 economists expect the bank to increase its key overnight rate as early as July, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. All predicted the bank will keep rates on hold after a two-day meeting ends June 15 so that it can review the quarterly Tankan business confidence survey on July 3.
Japan's zero-rate policy, designed to beat seven years of falling consumer prices, now risks kindling inflation as companies start to pass on higher raw material costs. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in a May 31 interview that ``upward pressure on prices will increase'' as the economy heads for its longest postwar expansion. "
Nine of 15 economists expect the bank to increase its key overnight rate as early as July, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. All predicted the bank will keep rates on hold after a two-day meeting ends June 15 so that it can review the quarterly Tankan business confidence survey on July 3.
Japan's zero-rate policy, designed to beat seven years of falling consumer prices, now risks kindling inflation as companies start to pass on higher raw material costs. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in a May 31 interview that ``upward pressure on prices will increase'' as the economy heads for its longest postwar expansion. "
China's import of copper falls 23 percent
China's import of copper falls 23 percent: "China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were higher on the international market than the domestic market, also dampened the enthusiasm of importers and speculators, the paper quoted Hu Bin, an analyst of Zhejiang Yong'an Futures Company as saying.
Hu said copper importers were losing 5,000-6,000 yuan (625-750 U.S. dollars) per ton due to the price gap.
Spurred by surging copper prices and high profit, Chinese copper enterprises have been expanding smelting capacity since 2003.
The expansion has resulted in excessive production capacity, experts said, warning that the rapid growth of copper smelting could leave domestic raw materials in short supply.
In the late 2005, five ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, jointly published a circular restricting investment in copper smelting.
It is expected that China's copper output will grow over 8 percent to around 2.8 million tons in 2006. In the first four months this year, China's refined copper output grew 26.7 percent to 937,000 tons.China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were h"
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were higher on the international market than the domestic market, also dampened the enthusiasm of importers and speculators, the paper quoted Hu Bin, an analyst of Zhejiang Yong'an Futures Company as saying.
Hu said copper importers were losing 5,000-6,000 yuan (625-750 U.S. dollars) per ton due to the price gap.
Spurred by surging copper prices and high profit, Chinese copper enterprises have been expanding smelting capacity since 2003.
The expansion has resulted in excessive production capacity, experts said, warning that the rapid growth of copper smelting could leave domestic raw materials in short supply.
In the late 2005, five ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, jointly published a circular restricting investment in copper smelting.
It is expected that China's copper output will grow over 8 percent to around 2.8 million tons in 2006. In the first four months this year, China's refined copper output grew 26.7 percent to 937,000 tons.China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were h"
China story remains intact...
Bloomberg.com: Australia & New Zealand: "``Mining stocks have fallen along with commodity prices, but analysts never had spot prices in their valuations,'' said Hans Kunnen, who helps oversee about $70 billion at the country's largest money manager, Colonial First State in Sydney. ``Earnings upgrades for mining stocks are still possible and the China story remains intact.''
China's industrial production expanded at the fastest pace in two years in May. Output climbed 17.9 percent to 706 billion yuan ($88.2 billion) after rising 16.6 percent in April, the Beijing- based National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today.
China
The country last year leapfrogged the U.S. to become Australia's second-biggest export market after Japan, according to government figures. Exports to China surged 50 percent to A$18.4 billion in 2005, lifting China's share of overseas shipments to 10.5 percent from 8 percent in 2004.
China accounted for 16.2 percent of BHP's sales in the six months ended Dec. 31, up from 12.6 percent in the last fiscal year.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index's futures contract for June rose 0.8 percent to 4863. The broader All Ordinaries Index added 0.3 percent to 4821.7.
The following shares also rose or fell. The stock symbols are in brackets after the company names. "
China's industrial production expanded at the fastest pace in two years in May. Output climbed 17.9 percent to 706 billion yuan ($88.2 billion) after rising 16.6 percent in April, the Beijing- based National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today.
China
The country last year leapfrogged the U.S. to become Australia's second-biggest export market after Japan, according to government figures. Exports to China surged 50 percent to A$18.4 billion in 2005, lifting China's share of overseas shipments to 10.5 percent from 8 percent in 2004.
China accounted for 16.2 percent of BHP's sales in the six months ended Dec. 31, up from 12.6 percent in the last fiscal year.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index's futures contract for June rose 0.8 percent to 4863. The broader All Ordinaries Index added 0.3 percent to 4821.7.
The following shares also rose or fell. The stock symbols are in brackets after the company names. "
13 June 2006
Greenpeace Draft Memo shows they don't beleive their own Properganda
Greenpeace Just Kidding About Armageddon: "But after that assertion, the Greenpeace authors were apparently stumped while searching for the ideal menacing metaphor.
'In the twenty years since the Chernobyl tragedy, the world's worst nuclear accident, there have been nearly [FILL IN ALARMIST AND ARMAGEDDONIST FACTOID HERE],' the sheet said."
'In the twenty years since the Chernobyl tragedy, the world's worst nuclear accident, there have been nearly [FILL IN ALARMIST AND ARMAGEDDONIST FACTOID HERE],' the sheet said."
Globalists back China in auto exports to U.S.
WorldNetDaily: Globalists back China in auto exports to U.S.: "George Soros, the billionaire who bankrolled Moveon.org, and Maurice Strong, a major backer of the United Nations and environmentalist causes, are considering pouring hundreds of millions into a Chinese state automaker with plans to begin dumping cheap exports on the U.S. market next year, WND has learned.
The 'Chery' is a knockoff of the South Korean Spark, sold in the U.S. in partnership with General Motors. GM filed a lawsuit against Chery Automobile Co. for piracy of the car developed by its South Korean affiliate Daewoo.
The lawsuit, launched in the name of GM Daewoo Auto & Technology Co. Ltd, contends Chery's QQ copied the design of Daewoo's Matiz, while Chery claims it developed the QQ on its own. GM's investigation results showed the two vehicles 'shared remarkably identical body structure, exterior design, interior design and key components.' "
The 'Chery' is a knockoff of the South Korean Spark, sold in the U.S. in partnership with General Motors. GM filed a lawsuit against Chery Automobile Co. for piracy of the car developed by its South Korean affiliate Daewoo.
The lawsuit, launched in the name of GM Daewoo Auto & Technology Co. Ltd, contends Chery's QQ copied the design of Daewoo's Matiz, while Chery claims it developed the QQ on its own. GM's investigation results showed the two vehicles 'shared remarkably identical body structure, exterior design, interior design and key components.' "
Silver Default Looming?
Silver Default Looming? - SilverSeek.com: "In last week’s article, 'Proving the Silver Manipulation Again,' I highlighted the growing and extremely large concentrated position of the largest short traders (compared to the largest long traders) on the COMEX silver market. I based all my analysis on source data contained in the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) as of May 30, 2006. My intent was to show how the evidence constituted reasonable grounds for an immediate investigation into possible manipulation. I directed this information to the new chairmen of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the NYMEX/COMEX, as did many of you, with the expectation that they would explain and/or rectify the situation.
The just released COT, for positions held as of June 6, 2006, shocked and dismayed me. Not only did it confirm my contention that the largest short traders on the COMEX continued (and actually increased) their dominance over long traders by excessive concentration, the new COT contained data that was so disturbing that it raised the possibility of a looming default in COMEX silver. At a minimum, the new data fully explains the recent sharp sell-offs in silver and strengthens my allegations of a downward price manipulation."
The just released COT, for positions held as of June 6, 2006, shocked and dismayed me. Not only did it confirm my contention that the largest short traders on the COMEX continued (and actually increased) their dominance over long traders by excessive concentration, the new COT contained data that was so disturbing that it raised the possibility of a looming default in COMEX silver. At a minimum, the new data fully explains the recent sharp sell-offs in silver and strengthens my allegations of a downward price manipulation."
What's Up With The Markets
Safe Haven | What's Up With The Markets: "Markets around the world are getting increasingly active - volatility is on the rise. Some of this volatility is due to the unwinding of certain carry trades. However, we think there is much more to come regarding the carry trades. These are the just the incipient murmurs.
The yen has been weak of late - suggesting that large positions have not yet been unwound. Such activity would put upward pressure on the yen. There are billions involved in the yen carry trade.
Nevertheless, this is only one side of the carry trade. Commodities are and have been on the other side. If commodity prices fall further, it will put even more pressure on the carry trades, and quite possibly from both sides"
The yen has been weak of late - suggesting that large positions have not yet been unwound. Such activity would put upward pressure on the yen. There are billions involved in the yen carry trade.
Nevertheless, this is only one side of the carry trade. Commodities are and have been on the other side. If commodity prices fall further, it will put even more pressure on the carry trades, and quite possibly from both sides"
12 June 2006
The Global Class War: How America's Bipartisan Elite Lost Our Future, and What It Will Take to Win It Back
The Global Class War: How America's Bipartisan Elite Lost Our Future, and What It Will Take to Win It Back: "Why is America's governing class so indifferent to the fate of its people? In his provocative new book, The Global Class War, economist Jeff Faux argues that now that they can find workers and investment opportunities elsewhere, America's rich and powerful are abandoning the social contract that until recently had united the economic interests of all Americans.
Faux explains how globalization is creating a new global political elite—'The Party of Davos'—who have more in common with each other than with their fellow citizens. Their so-called trade agreements (like NAFTA) and the World Trade Organization act as a global constitution that protects only one kind of citizen—the corporate investor. The inevitable result will be a drop in American living standards that will have dramatic political consequences. Faux concludes with an original strategy for bringing democracy to the global economy beginning with a social contract for North America"
Faux explains how globalization is creating a new global political elite—'The Party of Davos'—who have more in common with each other than with their fellow citizens. Their so-called trade agreements (like NAFTA) and the World Trade Organization act as a global constitution that protects only one kind of citizen—the corporate investor. The inevitable result will be a drop in American living standards that will have dramatic political consequences. Faux concludes with an original strategy for bringing democracy to the global economy beginning with a social contract for North America"
Cheap Drinking Water from the Ocean
: "A water desalination system using carbon nanotube-based membranes could significantly reduce the cost of purifying water from the ocean. The technology could potentially provide a solution to water shortages both in the United States, where populations are expected to soar in areas with few freshwater sources, and worldwide, where a lack of clean water is a major cause of disease.
The new membranes, developed by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), could reduce the cost of desalination by 75 percent, compared to reverse osmosis methods used today, the researchers say. The membranes, which sort molecules by size and with electrostatic forces, could also separate various gases, perhaps leading to economical ways to capture carbon dioxide emitted from power plants, to prevent it from entering the atmosphere.
The carbon nanotubes used by the researchers are sheets of carbon atoms rolled so tightly that only seven water molecules can fit across their diameter. Their small size makes them good candidates for separating molecules. And, despite their diminutive dimensions, these nanopores allow water to flow at the same rate as pores considerably larger, reducing the amount of pressure needed to force water through, and potentially saving energy and costs compared to reverse osmosis using conventional membranes."
The new membranes, developed by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), could reduce the cost of desalination by 75 percent, compared to reverse osmosis methods used today, the researchers say. The membranes, which sort molecules by size and with electrostatic forces, could also separate various gases, perhaps leading to economical ways to capture carbon dioxide emitted from power plants, to prevent it from entering the atmosphere.
The carbon nanotubes used by the researchers are sheets of carbon atoms rolled so tightly that only seven water molecules can fit across their diameter. Their small size makes them good candidates for separating molecules. And, despite their diminutive dimensions, these nanopores allow water to flow at the same rate as pores considerably larger, reducing the amount of pressure needed to force water through, and potentially saving energy and costs compared to reverse osmosis using conventional membranes."
Debt and social misery: the flipside of Britain's financial services boom
Debt and social misery: the flipside of Britain's financial services boom: "According to a survey published by YouGov for the debt management agency Thomas Charles, more than one million people could be on the verge of bankruptcy. One in five adults—eight million people—has unsecured debts of more than £10,000 (US$17,000), and 1.7 million people often struggle to keep up with debt repayments, with more than half of them having problems meeting their obligations every month.
Young people are by far the worst affected, with under-25s representing 61 percent of those with debts of between £10,000 and £30,000. More than a third of those surveyed said that debt was having an adverse effect on their health or relationships, while 8 percent said that it had made them clinically depressed.
Home repossessions rose by 70 percent last year, as house prices soared and people borrowed more than they could afford.
Record numbers of people are ringing help lines. The Citizens Advice Bureau (CAB) said that the number seeking help with debt management had doubled in the last eight years, and accounted for three quarters of the 1.25 million new debt cases that the charity dealt with every year. Young people and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. Women over 60 are the fastest growing group seeking advice."
Young people are by far the worst affected, with under-25s representing 61 percent of those with debts of between £10,000 and £30,000. More than a third of those surveyed said that debt was having an adverse effect on their health or relationships, while 8 percent said that it had made them clinically depressed.
Home repossessions rose by 70 percent last year, as house prices soared and people borrowed more than they could afford.
Record numbers of people are ringing help lines. The Citizens Advice Bureau (CAB) said that the number seeking help with debt management had doubled in the last eight years, and accounted for three quarters of the 1.25 million new debt cases that the charity dealt with every year. Young people and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. Women over 60 are the fastest growing group seeking advice."
11 June 2006
A Slow Unravelling - Or Will It Turn into a Crash?
Safe Haven | A Slow Unravelling - Or Will It Turn into a Crash?: "Investors may be in for a surprise when they open their May investment statements. For the first time in a while the markets had a down month. For the record, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) fell 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 3.0 percent, the NASDAQ 6.1 percent, the TSX Composite 3.8 percent, and the AMEX Oil Index (XOI) 2.7 percent. The worst performer was the Gold Bugs Index (HUI), down 12 percent. A number of the indices were down at important support zones and threatening to break through them, while the DJI also failed to take out highs seen in January 2000, leaving the potential for a massive multi-year double top. Shudder at the thought, as potential targets would be around 4,000."
Real Estate Bubble To Real Estate Crash | The Wall Street Examiner
Real Estate Bubble To Real Estate Crash | The Wall Street Examiner: "Both purchase mortgage and refi activity have been gradually downtrending since June 2005. Refis are hovering at their lowest levels in five years. Purchases have been dead in the water for over three months at their lowest levels in 3 ½ years. They are down 19% on a seasonally adjusted basis since peaking last June. Any further increase in mortgage rates is likely to lead to the total collapse of the housing market, which is already on its heels. Thirty year fixed rate mortgages were quoted around 6.66% on May 26, at the time of the weekly mortgage applications survey to which the above and following chart apply.
In addition to the problem of rising inventories, demand is tailing off. The National Association of Homebuilders conducts a survey of its members, of the traffic of prospective buyers. They report the data as a diffusion index on a scale of zero to 100. A reading of 50 means that an equal number of respondents are reporting good or very good traffic versus poor or very poor. The index is seasonally adjusted in order to remove seasonal influences from month to month comparison. This index has declined from a high of 55 in June and July 2005 to a reading of 32 in May 2006. Excluding a reading of 30 in the month following the 9/11 disaster in 2001, the current reading is the lowest reading since January of 2001. Readings of 41 or below have now persisted for six months. Sales contract volume is following a similar path."
In addition to the problem of rising inventories, demand is tailing off. The National Association of Homebuilders conducts a survey of its members, of the traffic of prospective buyers. They report the data as a diffusion index on a scale of zero to 100. A reading of 50 means that an equal number of respondents are reporting good or very good traffic versus poor or very poor. The index is seasonally adjusted in order to remove seasonal influences from month to month comparison. This index has declined from a high of 55 in June and July 2005 to a reading of 32 in May 2006. Excluding a reading of 30 in the month following the 9/11 disaster in 2001, the current reading is the lowest reading since January of 2001. Readings of 41 or below have now persisted for six months. Sales contract volume is following a similar path."
10 June 2006
Gold: Bull Markets Climb Walls of Worry
Safe Haven | Gold: Bull Markets Climb Walls of Worry: "Conspiracy theories, self-doubt, testing 2,000 years of history? The Da Vinci Code? No. Gold. Gold bullion's performance continues to defy conventional wisdom. Gold broke $700 an ounce to its highest price in a quarter of a century before retreating in profit-taking. Nonetheless, gold has risen more than 250 percent in the past five years, outperforming stocks, bonds and cash. Gold's move is due to the fact that the US has become the world's largest debtor in history. Gold generally has an inverse price relationship to the US dollar. As global rates inch up, there has been a major realignment of interest rates making non-dollar assets more appealing. The renewed flight from the dollar has been fast and furious, losing 6 percent against the euro in only a month.
Wall of worry
Bull markets climb walls of worry. With gold pulling back almost 13 percent, conventional wisdom is skeptical about gold's rise and sustainability. Such uncertainty has caused many investors to shun gold. Commodities have recently touched new records, reaching levels not seen for nearly two decades. However, when adjusted for inflation, commodities in real terms are even cheaper with crude oil and gold less costly than they were in the 70s. While most analysts are calling for the 'pricking' of the commodity bubble, few have 'drilled down' for the real cause of the price moves.
Simply, we believe that a commodities super-cycle has just begun. Two decades of neglect and inventory rundown sparked the upturn. We are experiencing a fundamental imbalance between constrained supplies and exploding demand. South Africa, the world's largest gold producer produced almost 11 percent less gold in the first quarter despite higher prices and will produce less then 300 tons this year, an eighty year low. South African production ha"
Wall of worry
Bull markets climb walls of worry. With gold pulling back almost 13 percent, conventional wisdom is skeptical about gold's rise and sustainability. Such uncertainty has caused many investors to shun gold. Commodities have recently touched new records, reaching levels not seen for nearly two decades. However, when adjusted for inflation, commodities in real terms are even cheaper with crude oil and gold less costly than they were in the 70s. While most analysts are calling for the 'pricking' of the commodity bubble, few have 'drilled down' for the real cause of the price moves.
Simply, we believe that a commodities super-cycle has just begun. Two decades of neglect and inventory rundown sparked the upturn. We are experiencing a fundamental imbalance between constrained supplies and exploding demand. South Africa, the world's largest gold producer produced almost 11 percent less gold in the first quarter despite higher prices and will produce less then 300 tons this year, an eighty year low. South African production ha"
9 June 2006
Ben Bernanke: Tough Guy
Ben Bernanke: Tough Guy: "Ben S. Bernanke rattled world financial markets Monday with his tough talk about combating inflation, but he also buffed up his image as a strong Federal Reserve chairman committed to the fight, analysts said yesterday.
'He reintroduced testosterone to the inflation-fighting resolve of the Fed,' said Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial Inc., an investment management firm. 'This is a pure male thing. He said to the markets, 'You think I'm a wimp? Take me on.' '"
'He reintroduced testosterone to the inflation-fighting resolve of the Fed,' said Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial Inc., an investment management firm. 'This is a pure male thing. He said to the markets, 'You think I'm a wimp? Take me on.' '"
8 June 2006
Welcome to the 21 Century. A world for which none of us is prepared.
Energy Geopolitics 2006: "News reports flitting across computer screens these days seem increasingly to be related to the subject of energy. But what do they signify? The modern world affairs analyst is in little better position to discern the patterns and portents than was his or her ancient Roman counterpart, the reader of entrails. What is one to make of items like these?
In January, Russia’s Gazprom (the state-owned natural gas company) temporarily cut supplies to Ukraine in order to obtain higher prices. While Russian president Vladimir Putin re-established gas shipments as soon as Western countries complained (they did so because they were running short, due to Ukraine’s skimming off of gas being trans-shipped to Europe through its territory), Western officials saw this as Russia unsheathing its “gas weapon.”"
In January, Russia’s Gazprom (the state-owned natural gas company) temporarily cut supplies to Ukraine in order to obtain higher prices. While Russian president Vladimir Putin re-established gas shipments as soon as Western countries complained (they did so because they were running short, due to Ukraine’s skimming off of gas being trans-shipped to Europe through its territory), Western officials saw this as Russia unsheathing its “gas weapon.”"
Golden WombatMcKern’s Market: Report 8/6/06 (No.1)
Golden Wombat: "Well, I been throwing off “other peoples posts” for months now, like crazy, and writing this and that but its time I bit the bullet. The real purpose of this site was to create a framework that would bring discipline and planning to my investing and trading. Over the next 48 months massive opportunities will unfold and these market reports will record the successes and failures, the stories that drove my trading, my big picture view and the trading plans going forward."
Robert Fisk: On the shocking truth about the American occupation of Iraq
Robert Fisk: On the shocking truth about the American occupation of Iraq: "I remember clearly the first suspicions I had that murder most foul might be taking place in our name in Iraq. I was in the Baghdad mortuary, counting corpses, when one of the city's senior medical officials - an old friend - told me of his fears. 'Everyone brings bodies here,' he said. 'But when the Americans bring bodies in, we are instructed that under no circumstances are we ever to do post-mortems. We were given to understand that this had already been done. Sometimes we'd get a piece of paper like this one with a body.' And here the man handed me an American military document showing the hand-drawn outline of a man's body and the words 'trauma wounds'. "
Up. Not down
Kitco - Contributed Commentaries - Richard Daughty: "What will happen? Well, Chris Laird of PrudentSquirrel.com asks, provocatively, 'World Markets about to Crash Together?' He first defines the problem as 'The US is considering a pause in its interest rate hikes of late. The interest rate differential the US holds over Japan and Europe is as much as 3%. If that differential is not maintained, trillions of dollars of US denominated financial investments are going to be unloaded on the world markets.'
So what is the upshot of this unloading? 'A combination of unwinding the Yen carry trade and a serious drop in the value of the USD will just simply pull the rug out from under every major financial market that has benefited from the cheap USD and Yen.' I'm going to go out on a small limb and say we are looking right now at a gigantic world stock collapse.'
Almost as an afterthought, he says 'Oh, did I mention that we are seeing the highest insider selling of stocks since about 2000?' And you remember what happened in 2000.
So it is the sudden, huge collapse of the Current Account that, alongside the fall in Japan's monetary base, is the Big Freaking News That Screams Danger! Danger! Danger! To The Mogambo (TBFNTMD!D!D!TTM)."
So what is the upshot of this unloading? 'A combination of unwinding the Yen carry trade and a serious drop in the value of the USD will just simply pull the rug out from under every major financial market that has benefited from the cheap USD and Yen.' I'm going to go out on a small limb and say we are looking right now at a gigantic world stock collapse.'
Almost as an afterthought, he says 'Oh, did I mention that we are seeing the highest insider selling of stocks since about 2000?' And you remember what happened in 2000.
So it is the sudden, huge collapse of the Current Account that, alongside the fall in Japan's monetary base, is the Big Freaking News That Screams Danger! Danger! Danger! To The Mogambo (TBFNTMD!D!D!TTM)."
It’s Time To Jump Back in Precious Metals and Mining Shares With Both Feet Again - GoldSeek.com
It’s Time To Jump Back in Precious Metals and Mining Shares With Both Feet Again - GoldSeek.com: "Like it or not, http://www.gata.org and its major supporters like Bill Murphy, James Turk and John Embry (Sprott) have been far more right than wrong in their predictions that the once believed “overhang” of supply (that so many of their critics constantly predicted) would not materialize. To what level there’s been manipulation or not to me isn’t as important as the “fact” that these gentlemen have been far more right than the very critics who called them nuts for even believing such manipulation was/is occurring. They at least proved (and its much more than this) that it’s better to be right for the wrong reasons than wrong for the right reasons. What’s most crucial about GATA’s work IMHO, is the Central Banks just don’t have the large quantities of gold the Andy Smith’s of the world (I assume this ardent gold bear is still alive somewhere) used to claim will overhang gold forever and thus gold would never see $500. (Now that I think about it, whatever happened to that money manager on ROB-TV who used to claim his grandchildren would never see $500 gold?). I think it’s foolish not to at least value GATA’s work on the same level of all my other work and urge you to make it part of your gold research as well.
n While I believe geopolitical “safe haven” status is going to continue to benefit gold for the foreseeable future, I think the next up leg is going to be driven by the fall of the U.S. Dollar. Please re-read my April 4th report at
http://www.grandich.com/docs/alertGL_04-04-06.pdf . If you’re going to value my observations in a serious manner, then I want you to imprint the following on the palm "
n While I believe geopolitical “safe haven” status is going to continue to benefit gold for the foreseeable future, I think the next up leg is going to be driven by the fall of the U.S. Dollar. Please re-read my April 4th report at
http://www.grandich.com/docs/alertGL_04-04-06.pdf . If you’re going to value my observations in a serious manner, then I want you to imprint the following on the palm "
TWIN HILLS SILVER MINE PROGRESS REPORT
Macmin Silver Ltd. - Free Market News Network: "Macmin Silver Ltd has signed a contract with Mearns Environmental Contracting Pty Ltd for an equipment fleet to commence mining at Twin Hills. The equipment comprises one Komatsu PC 1000 Hydraulic Excavator and three Caterpillar 773 off highway Rear Dump Trucks, which will be on site from July 1. This agreement provides that Mearns supplies the equipment and maintenance services whilst Macmin will supply the operators.
The arrival of the mining fleet will permit the Company to speed up its earthmoving activities on site. These activities initially include moving recently blasted rock from the storm containment dam; shifting and stockpiling alluvium in readiness for the next round of heap leach area preparation; and commencing the digging of waste and ore from the pit.
The Company has commenced discussions with Inglewood Shire Council on the possible use of ‘grey' water from the Texas townsite sewerage treatment plant. The water would be used in the processing plant and would serve as an alternate supplementary water supply in conjunction with the currently identified water resources on the site."
I think this one's a real sleeper! REAL POTENTIAL
The arrival of the mining fleet will permit the Company to speed up its earthmoving activities on site. These activities initially include moving recently blasted rock from the storm containment dam; shifting and stockpiling alluvium in readiness for the next round of heap leach area preparation; and commencing the digging of waste and ore from the pit.
The Company has commenced discussions with Inglewood Shire Council on the possible use of ‘grey' water from the Texas townsite sewerage treatment plant. The water would be used in the processing plant and would serve as an alternate supplementary water supply in conjunction with the currently identified water resources on the site."
I think this one's a real sleeper! REAL POTENTIAL
7 June 2006
We Are the Ones We've Been Waiting For
Scrutiny Hooligans: We Are the Ones We've Been Waiting For: "You have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour. Now you must tell the people that this is the Hour. And there are things to be considered:
Where are you living? What are you doing?
What are your relationships? Are you in right relation?
Do the children want what they see in you?
Where is your water? Know your garden.
Does your life grow corn?
It is time to speak your Truth. Create your community.
Be good to each other. And do not look outside yourself for the leader.
This could be a good time!
There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid. They will try to hold on to the shore. They will feel they are being torn apart, and they will suffer greatly.
Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off into the middle of the river, keep our eyes open and our heads above the water.
See who is in there with you and celebrate.
At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally. Least of all, ourselves. For the moment that we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.
The time of the lone wolf is over. Gather yourselves!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude and vocabulary.
All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in celebration.
We are the ones we've been waiting for.'
The Elders, Oraibi, Arizona, Hopi Nation"
Where are you living? What are you doing?
What are your relationships? Are you in right relation?
Do the children want what they see in you?
Where is your water? Know your garden.
Does your life grow corn?
It is time to speak your Truth. Create your community.
Be good to each other. And do not look outside yourself for the leader.
This could be a good time!
There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid. They will try to hold on to the shore. They will feel they are being torn apart, and they will suffer greatly.
Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off into the middle of the river, keep our eyes open and our heads above the water.
See who is in there with you and celebrate.
At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally. Least of all, ourselves. For the moment that we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.
The time of the lone wolf is over. Gather yourselves!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude and vocabulary.
All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in celebration.
We are the ones we've been waiting for.'
The Elders, Oraibi, Arizona, Hopi Nation"
The IMF’s America Problem
Project Syndicate: "The IMF’s meeting this spring was lauded as a breakthrough, with officials given a new mandate for “surveillance” of the trade imbalances that contribute significantly to global instability. The new mission is crucially important, both for the health of the global economy and the IMF’s own legitimacy. But is the Fund up to the job?
There is obviously something peculiar about a global financial system in which the richest country in the world, the United States, borrows more than $2 billion a day from poorer countries – even as it lectures them on principles of good governance and fiscal responsibility. So the stakes for the IMF, which is charged with ensuring global financial stability, are high: if other countries eventually lose confidence in an increasingly indebted US, the potential disturbances in the world’s financial markets would be massive. "
There is obviously something peculiar about a global financial system in which the richest country in the world, the United States, borrows more than $2 billion a day from poorer countries – even as it lectures them on principles of good governance and fiscal responsibility. So the stakes for the IMF, which is charged with ensuring global financial stability, are high: if other countries eventually lose confidence in an increasingly indebted US, the potential disturbances in the world’s financial markets would be massive. "
Recession Dead Ahead
Recession Dead Ahead - Forbes.com: "Slowly and methodically, the forces have been moving us toward an imminent recession. These cyclical forces include commodity inflation, which on a long-term basis is at the highest level since the 1970s. But they also extend deeper-- into the monetary forces and even consumer psychology behind the economic expansion.
The yield curve has changed dramatically in the past 24 months, and is as “flat” as we can ever remember seeing it. The danger is the 88% historical probability of a recession that this represents. And if pressures preclude the Fed from easing later this year, one might say the odds of recession are closer to 100%.
In the past 40 years, there have been eight instances where the yield curve (10-year T-bond minus 3-month T-bill) has flattened to this extent. In four of those instances, the yield curve temporarily widened, only to flatten again: 1973, 1989, 1998 and 2000. But in only one of those eight instances was the economy able to avoid a recession. What made 1998 unique? It could be called a hedge fund named Long-Term Capital Management. The August near-meltdown on Wall Street, along with the lowest inflation rate in 10 years, prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the fourth quarter of that year. As we see it, the Fed has no such leeway this time around. "
The yield curve has changed dramatically in the past 24 months, and is as “flat” as we can ever remember seeing it. The danger is the 88% historical probability of a recession that this represents. And if pressures preclude the Fed from easing later this year, one might say the odds of recession are closer to 100%.
In the past 40 years, there have been eight instances where the yield curve (10-year T-bond minus 3-month T-bill) has flattened to this extent. In four of those instances, the yield curve temporarily widened, only to flatten again: 1973, 1989, 1998 and 2000. But in only one of those eight instances was the economy able to avoid a recession. What made 1998 unique? It could be called a hedge fund named Long-Term Capital Management. The August near-meltdown on Wall Street, along with the lowest inflation rate in 10 years, prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the fourth quarter of that year. As we see it, the Fed has no such leeway this time around. "
A Loophole For Poor Mr. Paulson - Forbes.com
A Loophole For Poor Mr. Paulson - Forbes.com: "By accepting the Treasury post, Paulson is poised to take advantage of a tax loophole that allows government officials to defer capital gains taxes on assets they have to sell to avoid a conflict of interest, as long as the proceeds are reinvested in government securities or a broad array of mutual funds approved by the government within 60 days.
Technically, the tax kicks in once these replacement assets are sold, using the purchase price of the original assets as the cost basis, says Tom Ochsenschlager of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. But why sell when you can avoid the tax altogether?
'The idea is never to sell,' says Robert Willens, the top tax and accounting analyst at Lehman Brothers. 'If you're able to hold onto the replacement assets until your demise, you never have to pay it.'
The tax break was designed to ensure that the wealthy are not deterred from taking posts in government because they fear a big tax hit. But it amounts to a significant perk of public office. "
Technically, the tax kicks in once these replacement assets are sold, using the purchase price of the original assets as the cost basis, says Tom Ochsenschlager of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. But why sell when you can avoid the tax altogether?
'The idea is never to sell,' says Robert Willens, the top tax and accounting analyst at Lehman Brothers. 'If you're able to hold onto the replacement assets until your demise, you never have to pay it.'
The tax break was designed to ensure that the wealthy are not deterred from taking posts in government because they fear a big tax hit. But it amounts to a significant perk of public office. "
Welcome to Jim Sinclair's MineSet
Welcome to Jim Sinclair's MineSet: "Since the first quarter of 2003, he added, 'we've seen a broad range of Middle Easterners buying gold for storage outside the Middle East, the United States, Europe, or Japan. More people have bought gold over the past five years than in the entire history of mankind.'
The main repositories of these new gold findings, Christian said, were Australian, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.
The Fedaii organization also alleged that in a separate scheme, pro-Iranian Shiites in Iraq looted the Iraqi Central Bank and one of Saddam Hussein's palaces in the immediate aftermath of the 2003 war, and made off with 200 tons of Swiss-stamped gold bullion. "
The main repositories of these new gold findings, Christian said, were Australian, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.
The Fedaii organization also alleged that in a separate scheme, pro-Iranian Shiites in Iraq looted the Iraqi Central Bank and one of Saddam Hussein's palaces in the immediate aftermath of the 2003 war, and made off with 200 tons of Swiss-stamped gold bullion. "
How's that rebalancing call working for you, Mr. Roach?
Dude, where's the Dharma: "On May 1 of this year, Stephen Roach announced that the world, in an economic sense, was on the mend because world financial authorities were ready to take their medicine. The USDX had just fallen from 90 to 85, the Yuan was strengthening and interest rates were rising the world over.
Over the past month, however, these same authorities are starting to realize that the medicine does not taste good. Employment growth, according to the BLS has slowed appreciably and the US equity markets, along with those of other nations, have declined, in some cases substantially. Suddenly, there is talk that the Fed might need to pause. The Republican majority can ill afford a summer economic swoon going into November elections.On May 1 of this year, Stephen Roach announced that the world, in an economic sense, was on the mend because world financial authorities were ready to take their medicine. The USDX had just fallen from 90 to 85, the Yuan was strengthening and interest rates were rising the world over.
Over the past month, however, these same authorities are starting to realize that the medicine does not taste good. Employment growth, according to the BLS has slowed appreciably and the US equity markets, along with those of other nations, have declined, in some cases substantially. Suddenly, there is talk that the Fed might need to pause. The Republican majority can ill afford a summer economic swoon going into November elections."
Over the past month, however, these same authorities are starting to realize that the medicine does not taste good. Employment growth, according to the BLS has slowed appreciably and the US equity markets, along with those of other nations, have declined, in some cases substantially. Suddenly, there is talk that the Fed might need to pause. The Republican majority can ill afford a summer economic swoon going into November elections.On May 1 of this year, Stephen Roach announced that the world, in an economic sense, was on the mend because world financial authorities were ready to take their medicine. The USDX had just fallen from 90 to 85, the Yuan was strengthening and interest rates were rising the world over.
Over the past month, however, these same authorities are starting to realize that the medicine does not taste good. Employment growth, according to the BLS has slowed appreciably and the US equity markets, along with those of other nations, have declined, in some cases substantially. Suddenly, there is talk that the Fed might need to pause. The Republican majority can ill afford a summer economic swoon going into November elections."
6 June 2006
End of Cheap Oil!
Safe Haven | End of Cheap Oil!: "Moreover, I also anticipate natural gas, uranium, ethanol as well as other alternative energy prices to rise in the future. In summary, energy should form a core position of your investment portfolio as this is the only protection we have from the energy shortages and the huge price increases we will witness as a result of expensive oil.
Our firm has invested a large chunk of our managed accounts to the energy complex. As far as possible, we've bought the underlying commodities rather than owning stocks of energy-producing companies. Finally, we've also invested in stuff like sugar, corn and wheat, which will be in great demand for the production of ethanol and bio-diesel."
Our firm has invested a large chunk of our managed accounts to the energy complex. As far as possible, we've bought the underlying commodities rather than owning stocks of energy-producing companies. Finally, we've also invested in stuff like sugar, corn and wheat, which will be in great demand for the production of ethanol and bio-diesel."
Copper dropped
Bloomberg.com: Latin America: "June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped for a second consecutive day in London on speculation that the U.S. may raise interest rates to fend of inflation, curbing demand for the metal used to make cables and plumbing.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told banking executives in Washington yesterday rising inflation indexes are ``unwelcome'' and the Fed will make sure they are ``not sustained.'' His remarks sparked concern the Fed may decide on a 17th consecutive increase in its key rate when policy makers meet June 28-29. "
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told banking executives in Washington yesterday rising inflation indexes are ``unwelcome'' and the Fed will make sure they are ``not sustained.'' His remarks sparked concern the Fed may decide on a 17th consecutive increase in its key rate when policy makers meet June 28-29. "
Concerning a possible Yen-Carry Trade Unwinding
Welcome to Jim Sinclair's MineSet: "One other thing - Gold did not fall $100/ounce because of fears of the yen carry trade unwinding. It fell because the Bank of England precipitated an attack on the price of copper to try to save the LME from collapsing due to the idiots who kept shorting copper in the middle of a roaring bull market. They had to do something to stop the price of copper from rising or risk watching their members default. They could not obtain surplus supplies of copper which with to flood the market BECAUSE THERE ISN’T ANY! So why not attack the gold price which can be done by mobilizing Central Bank gold supplies and using that extra supply to temporary knock the floor out from under the gold market. Then you sit back and watch the financial press and the same old top callers in gold make the case that the commodity boom was over sending the speculators who were wining the battle heading to the hills in a mass selling panic of commodities across the board. Voila - Mission Accomplished!
In spite of the selling barrage copper is still trading at $3.50 pound. How many people in 2001 would have said that it was possible for copper to run to $4.00 pound and then drop sharply in price and still be trading at ONLY $3.50? Not 1 out of a 100 I would venture to say.
In conclusion, the commodity boom is no where near over and the current talk about a rout in the commodity sector is nothing more than the usual chatter that always surfaces whenever a market is experiencing a correction in a long term bullish trend."
In spite of the selling barrage copper is still trading at $3.50 pound. How many people in 2001 would have said that it was possible for copper to run to $4.00 pound and then drop sharply in price and still be trading at ONLY $3.50? Not 1 out of a 100 I would venture to say.
In conclusion, the commodity boom is no where near over and the current talk about a rout in the commodity sector is nothing more than the usual chatter that always surfaces whenever a market is experiencing a correction in a long term bullish trend."
When Sweet Statistics Clash With a Sour Mood - New York Times
When Sweet Statistics Clash With a Sour Mood - New York Times: "'In the first quarter of 2006, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 5.3 percent, the fastest growth in two and a half years,' he said, as Mr. Paulson, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, looked on. 'We added 5.2 million new jobs since August of 2003. The national unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent. Productivity is high, and that's leading to higher wages and a higher standard of living for the American people.'
Yet in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, only 28 percent of the respondents said they approved of President Bush's handling of the economy, while 66 percent disapproved — the worst such ratings of his presidency. Only 6 percent rated the economy as very good, while 46 percent said it was fairly bad or very bad. And consumer confidence plummeted last month, according to the Conference Board."
Yet in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, only 28 percent of the respondents said they approved of President Bush's handling of the economy, while 66 percent disapproved — the worst such ratings of his presidency. Only 6 percent rated the economy as very good, while 46 percent said it was fairly bad or very bad. And consumer confidence plummeted last month, according to the Conference Board."
Text pulled after uproar over Islam | EastValleyTribune.com
Text pulled after uproar over Islam | EastValleyTribune.com: "I do not want my children trying out Islam, or thinking about becoming a Muslim now, or in the future,' she wrote to Baracy on Jan. 25. She did say, however, that she approves of including some information about world religions in history lessons, so long as it is presented factually and briefly.
She also objected to a classroom activity that led students to rank the most influential people in history, which she said pit Jesus against Muhammad.
White could not be reached for comment for this story.
The issue drew national attention when a man claiming to be a Scottsdale father posted an entry on conservative writer Daniel Pipes’ Web site on Feb. 27.
The man lambasted what he stated was 'fake history along with Islamic religious proselytizing and indoctrination techniques' at his child’s school.
The posting found its way to at least five other Internet log sites, most of which claim to be politically conservative. One Jewish Web site also encouraged readers to contact the Scottsdale district, saying the textbook denigrates Judaism. "
She also objected to a classroom activity that led students to rank the most influential people in history, which she said pit Jesus against Muhammad.
White could not be reached for comment for this story.
The issue drew national attention when a man claiming to be a Scottsdale father posted an entry on conservative writer Daniel Pipes’ Web site on Feb. 27.
The man lambasted what he stated was 'fake history along with Islamic religious proselytizing and indoctrination techniques' at his child’s school.
The posting found its way to at least five other Internet log sites, most of which claim to be politically conservative. One Jewish Web site also encouraged readers to contact the Scottsdale district, saying the textbook denigrates Judaism. "
US bubble set to burst (June 2005) - News - PhysicsWeb
US bubble set to burst (June 2005) - News - PhysicsWeb: "House prices are rising so fast in 22 US states that they have created a 'bubble' that could burst in the middle of next year according to two physicists (physics/0506027). The same team previously predicted that the UK housing market would crash in mid-2004.
Bubbles are formed in markets when large numbers of investors - often taking their lead from traders - start to buy more and more stocks and shares, forcing prices to artificially high levels. Such bubbles can also form in the housing market. And like real bubbles, these financial bubbles often burst.
After the 'new economy' bubble burst in 2000, the US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates to just 1% in an effort to kick-start the economy. However, such low rates have historically been associated with an increased demand for houses. Two years ago, Didier Sornette and Wei-Xing Zhou at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) analysed the US housing market. They concluded that although house prices were increasing rapidly, there was no evidence for the faster-than-exponential growth that often leads to the growth of a bubble"
Bubbles are formed in markets when large numbers of investors - often taking their lead from traders - start to buy more and more stocks and shares, forcing prices to artificially high levels. Such bubbles can also form in the housing market. And like real bubbles, these financial bubbles often burst.
After the 'new economy' bubble burst in 2000, the US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates to just 1% in an effort to kick-start the economy. However, such low rates have historically been associated with an increased demand for houses. Two years ago, Didier Sornette and Wei-Xing Zhou at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) analysed the US housing market. They concluded that although house prices were increasing rapidly, there was no evidence for the faster-than-exponential growth that often leads to the growth of a bubble"
Property market set to slump (May 2006) - News - PhysicsWeb
Property market set to slump (May 2006) - News - PhysicsWeb: "The model can also predict how house prices might evolve between now and 2011, and shows that the high prices will slowly start to come down at the same rate as they went up (figure 2). This decrease, which will take about six or seven years, is characterized by exponential price falls with rates of about -6% per year, and will start in major cities such as San Francisco and Los Angeles with smaller cities following suit. These predictions might also hold true for other big cities, like London, Madrid, Paris or New York. Indeed, in Melbourne and Sydney the descent has already started.
Figure 2
Roehner says the current period is somewhat different to previous years because there is an inflated demand for property -- mainly from investors and high-income buyers -- that was not so important before. Moreover, investment funds (including pension and hedge funds) and the stock market are more closely associated with real estate than in previous years. Speculation has also boosted house prices to sometimes unreasonable levels.
However, Roehner also stresses the limits of his and other such models: 'Consider the London housing market,' he says. 'A year ago everybody (including myself) was convinced that the turning point had been reached and that prices would decline. In fact, over the last 12 months real estate prices in London have increased by 8%. What happened? As explained in a recent article published in the Economist, Gordon Brown [UK Chancellor of the Exchequer] has offered a governmental guarantee to banks and other lending institutions and devoted about $2 billion in subsidies to encourage buyers. Naturally, no model can take such events into account in advance.'"
Figure 2
Roehner says the current period is somewhat different to previous years because there is an inflated demand for property -- mainly from investors and high-income buyers -- that was not so important before. Moreover, investment funds (including pension and hedge funds) and the stock market are more closely associated with real estate than in previous years. Speculation has also boosted house prices to sometimes unreasonable levels.
However, Roehner also stresses the limits of his and other such models: 'Consider the London housing market,' he says. 'A year ago everybody (including myself) was convinced that the turning point had been reached and that prices would decline. In fact, over the last 12 months real estate prices in London have increased by 8%. What happened? As explained in a recent article published in the Economist, Gordon Brown [UK Chancellor of the Exchequer] has offered a governmental guarantee to banks and other lending institutions and devoted about $2 billion in subsidies to encourage buyers. Naturally, no model can take such events into account in advance.'"
BACK TO THE BUNKER
BACK TO THE BUNKER: "On Monday, June 19, about 4,000 government workers representing more than 50 federal agencies from the State Department to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will say goodbye to their families and set off for dozens of classified emergency facilities stretching from the Maryland and Virginia suburbs to the foothills of the Alleghenies. They will take to the bunkers in an 'evacuation' that my sources describe as the largest 'continuity of government' exercise ever conducted, a drill intended to prepare the U.S. government for an event even more catastrophic than the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
The exercise is the latest manifestation of an obsession with government survival that has been a hallmark of the Bush administration since 9/11, a focus of enormous and often absurd time, money and effort that has come to echo the worst follies of the Cold War. The vast secret operation has updated the duck-and-cover scenarios of the 1950s with state-of-the-art technology -- alerts and updates delivered by pager and PDA, wireless priority service, video teleconferencing, remote backups -- to ensure that 'essential' government functions continue undisrupted should a terrorist's nuclear bomb go off in downtown Washington."
The exercise is the latest manifestation of an obsession with government survival that has been a hallmark of the Bush administration since 9/11, a focus of enormous and often absurd time, money and effort that has come to echo the worst follies of the Cold War. The vast secret operation has updated the duck-and-cover scenarios of the 1950s with state-of-the-art technology -- alerts and updates delivered by pager and PDA, wireless priority service, video teleconferencing, remote backups -- to ensure that 'essential' government functions continue undisrupted should a terrorist's nuclear bomb go off in downtown Washington."
Bow-Tied Commodity Bull (Today From Barron's)| SmartMoney.com
Bow-Tied Commodity Bull (Today From Barron's)| SmartMoney.com: "WITH THE PRICES of oil and industrial metals like copper, zinc and nickel screaming higher in recent months, such observers as Warren Buffett and Morgan Stanley's Steve Roach have proclaimed that commodity markets are in a bubble destined to burst soon.
But Jim Rogers, fabled hedge-fund manager of the 'Seventies and now ardent commodity bull, finds such talk ridiculous. Indeed, he has been pounding the drum for investing in commodities in recent years in numerous speeches and media interviews, even writing Hot Commodities, a book propitiously published in late 2004 that predicted a coming price boom in everything from aluminum to zinc. "
But Jim Rogers, fabled hedge-fund manager of the 'Seventies and now ardent commodity bull, finds such talk ridiculous. Indeed, he has been pounding the drum for investing in commodities in recent years in numerous speeches and media interviews, even writing Hot Commodities, a book propitiously published in late 2004 that predicted a coming price boom in everything from aluminum to zinc. "
5 June 2006
Dude, where's the Dharma
Dude, where's the Dharma: "Let me share a memory to highlight what I mean. When I was 12 my father went back to school, first studying Philosophy en route to a Law degree. Thus our home library was soon augmented by the works of Descartes, Berkeley, Locke and Hume, to name a few. As children are wont to do, I emulated my father and read, perhaps tried to read would be a better description, some of these works. My impression was that these books were confusing.
When I began my own studies in Philosophy as an undergraduate a few years later, I was surprised to find that these once confusing works were now understandable. Indeed, each time I have revisited these works I have come to find more and more meaning. Yet the texts were unchanged from the first time I had picked them up. That is, the books themselves weren't confusing. I just didn't have enough background and life experience the first time I picked them up to discern much meaning in them.
The conclusion I drew from this was that meaning is subjective. As Thomas Carlyle put it, In every object there is inexhaustible meaning; the eye sees in it what the eye brings means of seeing. "
When I began my own studies in Philosophy as an undergraduate a few years later, I was surprised to find that these once confusing works were now understandable. Indeed, each time I have revisited these works I have come to find more and more meaning. Yet the texts were unchanged from the first time I had picked them up. That is, the books themselves weren't confusing. I just didn't have enough background and life experience the first time I picked them up to discern much meaning in them.
The conclusion I drew from this was that meaning is subjective. As Thomas Carlyle put it, In every object there is inexhaustible meaning; the eye sees in it what the eye brings means of seeing. "
4 June 2006
Rolling Stone : Was the 2004 Election Stolen?
Rolling Stone : Was the 2004 Election Stolen?: "The complete article, with Web-only citations, follows. Talk about it in our National Affairs blog, or see exclusive documents, sources, charts and commentary.
Like many Americans, I spent the evening of the 2004 election watching the returns on television and wondering how the exit polls, which predicted an overwhelming victory for John Kerry, had gotten it so wrong. By midnight, the official tallies showed a decisive lead for George Bush -- and the next day, lacking enough legal evidence to contest the results, Kerry conceded. Republicans derided anyone who expressed doubts about Bush's victory as nut cases in ''tinfoil hats,'' while the national media, with few exceptions, did little to question the validity of the election. The Washington Post immediately dismissed allegations of fraud as ''conspiracy theories,''(1) and The New York Times declared that ''there is no evidence of vote theft or errors on a large scale.''(2)"
Like many Americans, I spent the evening of the 2004 election watching the returns on television and wondering how the exit polls, which predicted an overwhelming victory for John Kerry, had gotten it so wrong. By midnight, the official tallies showed a decisive lead for George Bush -- and the next day, lacking enough legal evidence to contest the results, Kerry conceded. Republicans derided anyone who expressed doubts about Bush's victory as nut cases in ''tinfoil hats,'' while the national media, with few exceptions, did little to question the validity of the election. The Washington Post immediately dismissed allegations of fraud as ''conspiracy theories,''(1) and The New York Times declared that ''there is no evidence of vote theft or errors on a large scale.''(2)"
3 June 2006
The limits of finance
Dude, where's the Dharma: "Henry Paulson's appointment to the position of Treasury Secretary brings yet another Goldman Sachs player (Joshua Bolton was recently made Chief of Staff) to the Bush team. Upon hearing the news of Paulson's appointment my first thought was that the US has been declared bankrupt and Goldman Sachs has been appointed receiver. Perhaps holders of US debt are getting a bit antsy with the 'deficits don't matter' approach of Cheney et. al.
This is to invert the arrow of causation described in most press reports. Rather than thinking the Bush team chose Mr. Paulson, perhaps it was the global financiers, worried about the most recent spike in commodity prices, inter alia, who are driving the changes. Most press reports suggest that Mr. Paulson will have a much greater voice in policy than his predecessors, which fits with the inverted arrow of causation model. Goldman Sachs will now be driving US financial policy.Henry Paulson's appointment to the position of Treasury Secretary brings yet another Goldman Sachs player (Joshua Bolton was recently made Chief of Staff) to the Bush team. Upon hearing the news of Paulson's appointment my first thought was that the US has been declared bankrupt and Goldman Sachs has been appointed receiver. Perhaps holders of US debt are getting a bit antsy with the 'deficits don't matter' approach of Cheney et. al.
This is to invert the arrow of causation described in most press reports. Rather than thinking the Bush team chose Mr. Paulson, perhaps it was the global financiers, worried about the most recent spike in commodity prices, inter alia, who are driving the changes. Most press reports suggest that Mr. Paulson will have a much greater voice in policy than his predecessors, which fits with the inverted arrow of causation model. Goldman Sachs will now be driving US financial policy."
This is to invert the arrow of causation described in most press reports. Rather than thinking the Bush team chose Mr. Paulson, perhaps it was the global financiers, worried about the most recent spike in commodity prices, inter alia, who are driving the changes. Most press reports suggest that Mr. Paulson will have a much greater voice in policy than his predecessors, which fits with the inverted arrow of causation model. Goldman Sachs will now be driving US financial policy.Henry Paulson's appointment to the position of Treasury Secretary brings yet another Goldman Sachs player (Joshua Bolton was recently made Chief of Staff) to the Bush team. Upon hearing the news of Paulson's appointment my first thought was that the US has been declared bankrupt and Goldman Sachs has been appointed receiver. Perhaps holders of US debt are getting a bit antsy with the 'deficits don't matter' approach of Cheney et. al.
This is to invert the arrow of causation described in most press reports. Rather than thinking the Bush team chose Mr. Paulson, perhaps it was the global financiers, worried about the most recent spike in commodity prices, inter alia, who are driving the changes. Most press reports suggest that Mr. Paulson will have a much greater voice in policy than his predecessors, which fits with the inverted arrow of causation model. Goldman Sachs will now be driving US financial policy."
2 June 2006
A Closer Look at Copper "Speculative Buying" in Copper
The Salamone Stance: A Closer Look at "Speculative Buying" in Copper: "A popular explanation to a rise in commodity prices is 'speculative buying.' Usually, it is the hedge-fund world that is viewed as the speculative buyers. While speculative activity among the hedge-fund community can drive price behavior, I think it makes sense to confirm whether or not it is truly speculative buying that is driving prices. One resource for doing this is to check in on the Commitment of Traders Report (CoT), which is published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The data for this report is available in our Commodity Center. The CoT report is broken down by three types of traders: Large Speculators, Small Traders, and Commercial Hedgers. Hedge fund positions are reported within the Large Speculator category. With that being said, it is hard for me to believe that copper prices are being driven by the hedge-fund community. In fact, note in the graph below that Large Speculators have liquidated positions since March 2005. Furthermore, as early as February 2006, this group has been net short from time to time, even as copper spiked higher. Hedge fund speculation might have helped drive the rally in copper futures in 2003, but I have my doubts as to 2004-2006. And to the degree that some hedge funds have benefited from the copper rally, I would think that some in the hedge-fund community have been badly hurt by the advance."
Gold Is Money. Pass It On.
commentary32: "Gold bugs are a noisy and undisciplined rabble, a cantankerous collection of misfits, malcontents, treasure hunters and dilettantes. In the former Soviet Union, most of us would have been locked up in psychiatric hospitals. For the most part amateurs self-taught on the subject of gold and money, we are something of an intellectual militia. We have no institutional framework, just a loose string of websites and commentators who periodically publish rants of mixed quality under the banner of GATA. We have no doctrine, beyond a conviction that real money is gold and fiat money is fraud. We have no following, beyond the mildly curious and the already converted.
Contemporary Austrians, by contrast, are honors graduates of the School of Couth. They are the anointed heirs of a school of economic analysis articulated by an extraordinary collection of great thinkers, importantly including Ludwig von Mises (1891-1973) and Murray N. Rothbard (1926-1995). Austrian economics, with its emphasis on individual choice as the foundation of economic inquiry, is truth serum, an antidote to the poison of Keynesian ideology that has, over the past 80 years, succeeded in driving gold out of our currency, honesty out of our public discourse, and individual liberty out of our politics. Contemporary Austrians have a well-developed institutional structure, a secular monastery dedicated to keeping alive the flame of economic truth, in the form of the Ludwig von Mises Institute (www.mises.org). They have their own hierophants, in the person of learned academics and commentators who publish papers and exchange ideas on Austrian themes. They have a substantial following, and have earned a well-deserved respectability for their sound thinking and their decorous manner.
Most gold bugs subscribe, to one degree or another, to Austrian teachings,"
Contemporary Austrians, by contrast, are honors graduates of the School of Couth. They are the anointed heirs of a school of economic analysis articulated by an extraordinary collection of great thinkers, importantly including Ludwig von Mises (1891-1973) and Murray N. Rothbard (1926-1995). Austrian economics, with its emphasis on individual choice as the foundation of economic inquiry, is truth serum, an antidote to the poison of Keynesian ideology that has, over the past 80 years, succeeded in driving gold out of our currency, honesty out of our public discourse, and individual liberty out of our politics. Contemporary Austrians have a well-developed institutional structure, a secular monastery dedicated to keeping alive the flame of economic truth, in the form of the Ludwig von Mises Institute (www.mises.org). They have their own hierophants, in the person of learned academics and commentators who publish papers and exchange ideas on Austrian themes. They have a substantial following, and have earned a well-deserved respectability for their sound thinking and their decorous manner.
Most gold bugs subscribe, to one degree or another, to Austrian teachings,"
1 June 2006
Funds: Bullish on mining despite slide - Marketplace by Bloomberg - International Herald Tribune
Funds: Bullish on mining despite slide - Marketplace by Bloomberg - International Herald Tribune: "Simon Shields, Australia's biggest fund manager, is not concerned by last month's global sell-off in mining shares. He is betting it was a blip in a multidecade rally sparked by China's industrialization.
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, two of the world's biggest mining companies, tumbled more than 10 percent in the week after reaching records last month as commodities posted big declines. For Shields, the plunge made the two mining stocks even more attractive.
'BHP and Rio are extremely undervalued by the market,' Shields, of Colonial First State in Sydney, said during a recent interview. 'What we're seeing now is a long-term upswing that could last 20 to 30 years. We're buying shares that are unashamedly geared toward a tectonic shift in global growth.'
BHP has recovered 2.8 percent since its recent low last Thursday, while Rio has bounced 4.6 percent from its May 23 low. BHP and Rio are up 69 percent and 83 percent over the past year, more than triple the 22 percent gain in Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. They have also helped make Shields's team of investors the best performers in Australia over the past three years.
Colonial's $4.9 billion Geared Share Fund, managed by Jim Taylor, has climbed 54 percent every year for the past three, making it the best-performing Australian equities fund for the period among 589 major funds. This year it is up 15.9 percent, compared with a 5 percent gain in the S&P/ASX 200.
Three other Colonial funds, overseen by Shields, are among the top 10 performers over the past three years. Colonial manages a total of 113 billion Australian dollars, or $85 billion.
"
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, two of the world's biggest mining companies, tumbled more than 10 percent in the week after reaching records last month as commodities posted big declines. For Shields, the plunge made the two mining stocks even more attractive.
'BHP and Rio are extremely undervalued by the market,' Shields, of Colonial First State in Sydney, said during a recent interview. 'What we're seeing now is a long-term upswing that could last 20 to 30 years. We're buying shares that are unashamedly geared toward a tectonic shift in global growth.'
BHP has recovered 2.8 percent since its recent low last Thursday, while Rio has bounced 4.6 percent from its May 23 low. BHP and Rio are up 69 percent and 83 percent over the past year, more than triple the 22 percent gain in Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index. They have also helped make Shields's team of investors the best performers in Australia over the past three years.
Colonial's $4.9 billion Geared Share Fund, managed by Jim Taylor, has climbed 54 percent every year for the past three, making it the best-performing Australian equities fund for the period among 589 major funds. This year it is up 15.9 percent, compared with a 5 percent gain in the S&P/ASX 200.
Three other Colonial funds, overseen by Shields, are among the top 10 performers over the past three years. Colonial manages a total of 113 billion Australian dollars, or $85 billion.
"
Whats moving the market
Platts: "
Volumes were light and premarket trade on the London Metal Exchange was described by one trader with an LME ring member as 'pretty dead' Wednesday. After a chunky net inflow of 6,150 mt of copper stocks into LME-approved warehouses, largely in the form of cathode into Singapore, three-months copper traded on the LME had eased $40 from its Tuesday close, bid at $7,910/mt by 0907 GMT. 'Copper is drifting, as all the base metals got a sell off Tuesday,' said the trader, adding that many in the market had taken profits causing a dip in prices. 'This puts prices back in the triangle and back firmly in consolidation mode. Given the volatility of the market, having tested the upside, we should now expect a swing down [for copper] to test the lower levels of support around $7,600/mt,' said William Adams, metals analyst at BaseMetals.com. By contrast, aluminium had firmed $35 to $2,735/mt, and the trader warned that aluminium needed to hold above $2,680/mt.
'A lot of the margins have now increased, and this will have had some affect on the longs,' the UK-based trader said, referring to recent announcements by the London Clearing House of further increases to its margin requirements for the LME base metals, but he added: 'The base metals still look strong...this is probably just a dip.' Lead was bid off $7 from its previous close by 0907 GMT Wednesday at $1,090/mt, while tin lost $250, bid down at $7,950/mt. Although three-months zinc had eased $65, bid at $3,660/mt, the trader said the metal was still doing exceptionally well. 'Zinc's fundamentals are strong...there's not much concentrate material around...people are buying on the dips,' he added. Meanwhile, t"
Volumes were light and premarket trade on the London Metal Exchange was described by one trader with an LME ring member as 'pretty dead' Wednesday. After a chunky net inflow of 6,150 mt of copper stocks into LME-approved warehouses, largely in the form of cathode into Singapore, three-months copper traded on the LME had eased $40 from its Tuesday close, bid at $7,910/mt by 0907 GMT. 'Copper is drifting, as all the base metals got a sell off Tuesday,' said the trader, adding that many in the market had taken profits causing a dip in prices. 'This puts prices back in the triangle and back firmly in consolidation mode. Given the volatility of the market, having tested the upside, we should now expect a swing down [for copper] to test the lower levels of support around $7,600/mt,' said William Adams, metals analyst at BaseMetals.com. By contrast, aluminium had firmed $35 to $2,735/mt, and the trader warned that aluminium needed to hold above $2,680/mt.
'A lot of the margins have now increased, and this will have had some affect on the longs,' the UK-based trader said, referring to recent announcements by the London Clearing House of further increases to its margin requirements for the LME base metals, but he added: 'The base metals still look strong...this is probably just a dip.' Lead was bid off $7 from its previous close by 0907 GMT Wednesday at $1,090/mt, while tin lost $250, bid down at $7,950/mt. Although three-months zinc had eased $65, bid at $3,660/mt, the trader said the metal was still doing exceptionally well. 'Zinc's fundamentals are strong...there's not much concentrate material around...people are buying on the dips,' he added. Meanwhile, t"
Finextra: Trading errors soar in credit derivatives market
Finextra: Trading errors soar in credit derivatives market: "Around one in five credit derivatives trades made by US banks last year initially contained errors, double the previous rate, according to a survey by The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (Isda).
The Isda survey of 67 financial institutions found that over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives volumes increased for all product categories during 2005. The largest increase was for credit default swap volumes, which doubled at all sizes of firm.
But credit derivatives error rates increased for the sample as a whole. Errors in trading equity derivatives more than doubled last year to 20%.
The Isda research also found that rebookings increased significantly during 2005, although this may reflect intensified efforts to reduce confirmation backlogs at the behest of the regulators.
The surge in errors comes as dealers move to automate paper-based settlement and tighten back office risk management procedures in the $17,000 billion credit derivatives market. Earlier this year the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the world's major derivatives dealers had met initial targets for reducing the backlog of unconfirmed trades.
The Isda survey found that confirmation backlogs had decreased significantly for credit derivatives, which it says reflects increased industry and regulatory attention. But the logjams increased for both vanilla and non-vanilla equity derivatives."
The Isda survey of 67 financial institutions found that over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives volumes increased for all product categories during 2005. The largest increase was for credit default swap volumes, which doubled at all sizes of firm.
But credit derivatives error rates increased for the sample as a whole. Errors in trading equity derivatives more than doubled last year to 20%.
The Isda research also found that rebookings increased significantly during 2005, although this may reflect intensified efforts to reduce confirmation backlogs at the behest of the regulators.
The surge in errors comes as dealers move to automate paper-based settlement and tighten back office risk management procedures in the $17,000 billion credit derivatives market. Earlier this year the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the world's major derivatives dealers had met initial targets for reducing the backlog of unconfirmed trades.
The Isda survey found that confirmation backlogs had decreased significantly for credit derivatives, which it says reflects increased industry and regulatory attention. But the logjams increased for both vanilla and non-vanilla equity derivatives."
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