6 July 2009

News Kontent Scoops the GEAB 36 Leap 2020 June 09 "strategic investment recommendations"

If only to direct attention to the work of the France Based Think Tank. (in contrast to aussie and yankee belief tanks.) The power of finance and the self interest of owners have created an information gap, you see, the commercial media are having trouble finding sponsors for acute monetary dissorder and mass global unemployment and yet plenty for "alls well".

The french iconoclasts can better tell truth, here, its an Anglomess. They nailed it. Leap 2020 is a key search term for this blog....Alls not well.

Anyway its a machine translate of a french torrent and its a one off. Respect to Leap 2020 but they need help with their english, but most of all we need to attend to the same syncretic and multi-disciplinary approach and one thats underwritten by an institutional bias towards truth as opposed to particular interests..

at this point the strategic recommendations of this sane lucid and unselfinterested team with nous on the board are just too important not to share...

Strategic recommendations for cross
meurtrier summer 2009

Currency / Gold:

The "rogue waves" of summer 2009 will cause severe turbulence and lead to
termination payment statements, including the United States and United Kingdom. The currency market will be
very bumpy ride. At this stage, LEAP/E2020 can not anticipate specific course because changes will be
so brutal and jerky that only trends can be identified.
Thus, the U.S. Dollar and British Pound will see new dives. The Dollar Index is
0.65 and move towards parity in the Euro-Book 1 Book 1 Euro. The euro-dollar parity will be submitted
a double contradictory phenomenon in the short term: a downward trend of strong U.S. Dollar,
but the Europeans will try to counter so that the Euro will become so expensive that
only "kills" the resumption of exports. For our team, moving on then, but not linear, to
rate Euro / Dollar between 1.50 and 1.60 before the suspension of U.S. payment. Once it
regarded as inevitable, regardless of the action of the ECB, it will move quickly to a rate of 1
Euro = 2 U.S. Dollars.
The Real and the Yuan are still part of currency at LEAP/E2020 believes they can only
strengthen the medium and long terms.
The currencies of countries' mining ', such as Australia or Canada, will be weakened by the absence
resume after the summer, but instead they will receive the effects of diversification out of U.S. Dollar
(purchasing of mines, raw materials, ...). In total, they should be quite stable.
The Yen will encounter two problems related to its assessment in relation to the U.S. Dollar in the context of
the U.S. payments crisis, but its heavy reliance of the United States will play in reverse. One of
decisive factors will be the attitude of Japan in the removal from the U.S. Treasury bonds and assets denominated in
Dollar. If this country is still "stuck" in the United States until the end (as shown for the moment his status
last wildcard to save sales of U.S. Treasury Bonds), its currency will be caught in the
U.S. collapse (because its huge dollar reserves will lose between 50% and 90% of their values
few days).
Gold will continue to remain a refuge for the coming months. We maintain our
board 30% of assets in gold (physical gold, not paper), and we recommend to have about 6
months of basic expenses or in order to cope with the currency turmoil, including at
national. Countries who face a possible suspension of payments will in fact
monetary disorder intense internally.

Real Estate

The markets have still not reached their lowest levels. So, ignore the advice to return
purchase (unless absolutely necessary of course) issued by professionals and media.
In the United States, LEAP/E2020 believes that prices will drop on average still 20% by summer 2010 and
a new wave of property seizures in large urban centers will expand the number of states
strongly affected by the housing crisis.
In the United Kingdom, a similar decline is assured.
These two markets, as those countries whose currency is being devalued sharply, to become
the end of 2009 property market particularly attractive to foreigners. But provided
be very careful about the choice of regions and districts. Do not especially shopping real estate
Remote as it is happening now in Detroit, where foreign buyers make believe
bargains by buying lots of houses for $ 10,000 each. These properties are located in
neighborhoods with no degradation will only increase and profitability will not be possible:
it is not because something is cheap, it is necessarily a good deal!
And remember two things in particular on the U.S. market: do not invest in
condominiums (because of the risk of personal bankruptcies of other co-owners) and be very careful about
building quality (especially at the end of housing bubble, buildings, even high -
range, have tended to be of poor quality).
On the London market, we must keep in mind that the reference prices of a year ago or two have more
no relation to the price of the future. The end of the City as it was known in the past implies that


Confidential 'GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N ° 36 - 16 June 2009
© Copyright Europe 2020 / LEAP - 2009-ISSN 1951-6177 - All rights reserved

there will be more (due date) as strong demand fueled by the financial bubble
remuneration and other traders hedgefunders. We must therefore set the price in London of the future
on prices of comparable European cities, or have unpleasant surprises for resale
in a few years.
In Spain, besides the problem of quality of recent construction, the United States, it is difficult
at this stage to predict the level at which prices can fall because it is possible that this crisis breaks
simply the tourism model which relied on the Iberian resort development. Thus,
suspicion before investing even at very low prices, unless it is through coup de coeur.
And finally, here is the tourist-board real estate in the summer of LEAP/E2020: Riga, Latvia is a city
magnifique (rightly dubbed "the Pearl of the Baltic), which is becoming very affordable
because of the crisis in the country (early two years ago by our team). A successful tourism can
and lead to an interesting real estate investment and help support the economy of this small

Stocks / Bonds Business:

Beware, some companies want to make gifts. Beware! Whether banks
(Including U.S.) with their "cheap" and companies offering attractive rates
for their loans (such as EDF in France), it must be very careful.
Banks prepare for further losses very important by the end of 2009 and they are trying to do paid to small holders adding to their inevitable course next fall. As for businesses, who, like EDF, offer a loan at 5% over five years, while current inflation is announced
around 1% to 2% when one does not deflation, they are not looking to get rich. They
know very well that inflation is back (prices of products will need to mount, only
the unnecessary decline) and that within five years, it is even possible, given the money supply current one approaches in Europe inflation in double digits. In the United States and the United Kingdom, they will be in double digits since 2010.
Also, if you choose to live in that if you return on the stock exchange, one must beware of three types of enterprises (in addition to financial):

those who do not have a strong balance sheet
those that are too recent or on markets still uncertain (the crisis would be terrible for
they lack capital to support consumers and wasteful)
those that are subsidiaries of American or British, as their mothers go home
be even more than before forced to siphon cash to try to survive the crisis
their respective national markets. These companies will be more likely than others to
to suddenly bankrupt, and in any case unable to invest in the future.
Treasury Bills:

On this subject, GEAB No. 36 has already provided many elements. One should bear in mind the need to avoid pays all costs that do not have strong public finances and / or a well-established ability to increase rapidly their taxes without a popular revolt (or actually increase their tax revenue, because taxpayers are too poor). Everything else is literature for to believe that nothing ever changes and that what was will be. However, we are experiencing a crisis and, within
this crisis, a particular period, characterized by rapid and radical changes. Rappelezvous
until last June, few people thought possible collapse of the giants of Wall Street .... three months later, the collapse was consumed!
Today, the pressure of the crisis weighs entirely on the statements and in particular those in the heart of system collapses, the United States and United Kingdom. Their T-Bills, which are nothing other than an acknowledgment of debt secured on their economies and their currencies, are only as good
these economies and currencies: that is to say less and less each month that passes. Large holders of these values in public now trying to prepare their release (as seen in the first summit of BRIC Ekaterinebourg or decline in China's Treasury Bonds U.S.
month of April last). The only question for other owners is not "if", but
"When and how" the great sale of U.S. Treasury Bonds (Gilts and UK) will
place. We recall that for LEAP/E2020, it will happen no later than late summer 2009. In any case, it seems obvious that it is extremely dangerous to buy.

There you go. Hats off to the Froggy's...

Here is the bigger context, their announcement.

announcement Special Summer 2009 GEAB N°36 (June 17, 2009) -

Three rogue waves by H-J Fandrich for LEAP/E2020
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 as early as October 2008, on the eve of summer 2009, the question of the US and UK capacity to finance their unbridled public deficits has become the central question of international debates, thus paving the way for these two countries to default on their debt by the end of this summer.

At this stage of the global systemic crisis’ process of development, contrary to the dominant political and media stance today, the LEAP/E2020 team does not foresee any economic upsurge after summer 2009 (nor in the following 12 months) (1). On the contrary, because the origins of the crisis remain unaddressed, we estimate that the summer 2009 will be marked by the converging of three very destructive « rogue waves » (2), illustrating the aggravation of the crisis and entailing major upheaval by September/October 2009. As always since this crisis started, each region of the world will be affected neither at the same moment, nor in the same way (3). However, according to our researchers, all of them will be concerned by a significant deterioration in their situation by the end of summer 2009 (4).

This evolution is likely to catch large numbers of economic and financial players on the wrong foot who decided to believe in today’s mainstream media operation of “euphorisation”.

In this special « Summer 2009 » edition, our team describes in detail these three converging « rogue waves » and their impact, and gives a number of strategic recommendations (currencies, gold, real estate, bonds, stocks, currencies) to avoid being swept away in this deadly summer.

Duration (in months) of US recessions since 1900 (average duration: 14,43 months) - Sources: US National Bureau of Economic Research / Trends der Zukunft
LEAP/E2020 believes that, instead of « green shoots » (those which international media, experts and the politicians who listen to them (5) kept perceiving in every statistical chart (6) in the past two months), what will appear on the horizon is a group of three destructive waves of the social and economic fabric expected to converge in the course of summer 2009, illustrating the aggravation of the crisis and entailing major changes by the end of summer 2009… more specifically, debt default events in the US and UK, both countries at the centre of the global system in crisis. These waves appear as follows:

1. Wave of massive unemployment: Three different dates of impact according to the countries in America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa
2. Wave of serial corporate bankruptcies: companies, banks, housing, states, counties, towns
3. Wave of terminal crisis for the US Dollar, US T-Bond and GBP, and the return of inflation

World trade shrinks : Chart 1: Year-over-year change in total exports from 15 major exporting countries (1991-02/2009) / Chart 2: Year-over-year change in exports from 15 major exporters between February 2008 and February 2009 (size of circles reflects vo
In fact, these three waves do not appear in quick succession like the « sisters rogue waves ». They are even more dangerous because they are simultaneous, asynchronous and non-parallel. Hence their impact on the global system accentuates the risks because they hit at various angles, at different speeds and with varying strength. The only certain thing at this stage is that the international system has never been so weak and powerless to face such a situation. The IMF and global governance institutions’ reforms announced by the London G20 are at a standstill (7). The G8 becomes more like a moribund club whose utility is increasingly questioned (8). US leadership is the shadow of what it used to be, mostly concerned by desperately trying to find purchasers for its T-Bonds (9). The global monetary system is in a process of disintegration, with the Russians and Chinese in particular accelerating their positioning in the post-Dollar era. Companies foresee no improvement in the business climate and speed up the pace of layoffs. A growing number of states falter under the weight of their accumulated debt created to “rescue banks” and are about to be faced with a welter of failings by the end of this summer (10). And, last but not least, the banks, once they have squeezed money out of naive savers thanks to the market upsurge orchestrated in the past few weeks, will be have to admit that they are still insolvent by the end of summer 2009.

In the United States and United Kingdom in particular, the colossal public financial effort made in 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 for the sole benefit of large banks became so unpopular that it was impossible to consider injecting more public money into banks in spring 2009, despite the fact that they were still insolvent (11). It then became necessary to invent a “fairy tale” to convince the average saver to inject his/her own money into the financial system. By means of the « green shoots » story, overpriced stock indices based on no real economic grounds and promises of « anticipated public funding repayment », the conditioning was achieved. Hence, while big investors from oil-producing and Asian countries (12) withdrew capital from these banks, large numbers of small individual investors returned, full of hope. Once these small investors discover that public funding repayment is only a drop in the ocean of public aid granted to these banks (to help them dispose of their toxic assets) and that, after three or four months at best (as analyzed in this GEAB N°36), these banks are again on the verge of collapse, they will realize, powerless, that their share is worth nothing once again.

Growth in GDP (green) and US debt (red) (Bn USD) - Sources: US Federal Reserve / US Bureau of Economic Analysis / Chris Puplava, 2008
Intoxicated by financiers, world political leaders will be surprised - once again – to see all the problems of last year reappear, all the more severe since they were not addressed but only buried under piles of public money. Once that money has been squandered by insolvent banks compelled to « rescue » even more insolvent rivals, or by ill-conceived economic stimulus plans, problems will re-emerge, further exacerbated. For hundreds of millions of citizens in America, Europe, Asia and Africa, the summer 2009 will be a dramatic transition towards lasting impoverishment due to the loss of their jobs, with no hope of finding new ones in the next two, three or four years, or due to the disappearance of their savings invested in stocks or capital-based pension funds, or in banking investments linked to stock markets or denominated in US dollars or British pounds, or investment in shares of companies pressured to desperately wait for an improvement not coming soon.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Here is the complete report. Their english is improving, much better than my french.


In Ireland, you can sense the tension in the papers and on the radio. I think it will blow up over the next year. The government asking people to tighten are belts and then turns around and bails out the banks. That rubbed people up the wrong way and I'd say they would of gone along with the government up to that point.