7 March 2009

China's Torpedo Play: Yuan Set to Replace Dollar in Asia

Posted by slowsmile February 10, 2009

The Yuan will soon replace the dollar as the new Asian regional reserve currency. This also confirms that China now will probably dump a large amount of her trillions of reserve dollars and Treasury Bills - a horrific prospect for America with dangerous economic and dollar impacts.

Whilst stumbling over the internet in search of some news I came across a detailed article on the Asia News website headed "Chinese Yuan Set to Replace Dollar". I was somewhat stunned at this headline. This article describes that Beijing is introducing a serious currency experiment - because of the dollar's volatility and unreliability - to aid in the stability of the Asian economy. But in the Asian News article, it is fairly clear what China's intentions are - which is to completely decouple both China and Asia from the American dollar and introduce the yuan as the regional reserve currency. My guess is that other Asian governments will fall over themselves to join with this new reserve currency. This will be horrific news for America and all Americans, since it is now apparent that China(and eventually all Asia) will have little further use for the sick US dollar in this heavyweight economic region. This implementation of the yuan as the regional currency of Asia is also entirely legal - ever since Nixon trashed Breton Woods by decoupling gold from the dollar in 1971(And this is what initiated the US government's Treasury Bill/Debt exchange standard for the world). So, soon Asian members of this new reserve currency will be able to buy raw materials and commodities like Food and Oil for yuan in Asia. Ouch!! That's really going to hurt the greenback…

With the likelihood of China, Russia, Korea, Taiwan and Japan all eventually joining and also dumping large quantities of their reserve dollars in favour of the yuan currency, which will severely weaken dollar demand and therefore weaken its value, the outlook seems pretty grim for the future of the American economy. And with all those trillions of dollars coming home to roost in America, there is now nothing that the US government will be able to do to avoid inflation, or - much more likely - hyperinflation.

This is a very clever economic - as well as political - play by China and has to be admired. She is offering not only a way out for Asia in this current financial crisis - and thereby making alot of friends, but also this will enable Asian countries to decouple completely from both their feckless US dollar dependency as well as from American financial influence in the region. Interesting to realize that China will now be able to force other countries to pay her own National Debt through her own yuan Treasury Bill/Debt exchange cycle, with the eventual likelihood of the American government also contributing significantly by buying vast quantities of Yuan Treasuries. I confess that I find this possible turnaround hilarious. My, how the tables will have turned!! The Big Currency Boot will soon shift onto a Chinese foot it seems. And how can the US government possibly complain, since they have been using this same Treasury/Debt exchange mechanism for the last 38 years to so unsuccessfully pay back America's own debts?

And so much for all those CNN and Fox News economist babblers who have all been insisting that China "desperately needs" the American Markets, that China and all reserve dollar holding countries will always contribute - via US Treasury purchase - towards payment of the US National Debt forever, no matter what state the dollar is in. China, by her own actions, appears to have declared otherwise. My simple question here is: Why the hell should China or any other country pay for another country's debts? I really couldn't care less what the Keynesian or Monetarist economic explanations and reasons are for doing this - another way of putting it is - Why should just America have all the economic advantages of other countries and dollar reserve holders paying back her huge debt? Doesn't this monetary practice lead to rather lop-sided "free-trade"? It really is about time America found her own monetary feet with regard to the dollar and her massive Fiscal Debt(now $65 trillion, still rocketing skywards and heading for Mars), otherwise the dollar's demise will continue to denude all respect for the American government. I guess China has been thinking along much the same lines, don't you think?

I hope Timothy Geithner reads this, since everything he's been saying about China's currency is both laughable as well as hypocritical (As if the US government - via the beloved Fed - hasn't been selfishly manipulating the dollar for decades now for its own advantage, give me a break. For some honest background here - read Murray Rothbard's "The Case Against The Fed"). His recent critical words on China's currency are not so much an open threat to China, as a thinly veiled and tepid bluff. America's government simply doesn't have the political intelligence, respect or economic puff left to convince anybody. This article basically shows that China (and perhaps the rest of Asia) are now plainly unwilling to tow that heavy financial burden of costly lop-sided, support for the American economy any longer. And perhaps with good reason, as I've tried to explain in this piece (And no folks, I'm not a Commie). This turn of events has all arisen because of atrocious foreign and economic planning on the part of the US government - there is squarely no one else to blame and surely no-one else responsible, who have quite obviously misjudged and mishandled the Financial Crisis, Oil, The Fiscal Deficit, The Dollar and most of their foreign diplomacy abroad. Their huge self-feeding assumptions, spurred and supported by their incessant see-through propaganda and over-numerous shadow-agendas by successive US governments, have simply exceeded their capability to lead the world with any degree of perceived economic credibility or fairness from their own leadership position. Economic Selfishness, Greed and Hypocrisy is a bad combination, and never ever works politically or economically.

This news is also particularly odd in another respect. After I read this news on the Asia News website - I immediately (as I always do) went on to four of the top UK newspaper websites and searched their archives for this news in order to verify it. I also searched all the major US newspapers for this news. Not a peep. Even Reuters had nothing on this news. Evidently the Western media has been quietly and desperately suppressing the news of this new Asian regional currency development - possibly because of further fear of damaging the western financial markets. My guess is that the little-understood, illusive spectre of 'market confidence' has known about this piece of news for some time now, and is acting entirely appropriately.

Pity it has to be such bad news…

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