31 March 2008

Look out for the Rally?

Deflating the earnings bubble may well be a slow affair, barring a hard global landing, leaving room for bear-market rallies, even if the likely earnings fall points to new market lows later this year.

There is then typically a bear-market rally before the move to the lows. The market bottom occurs before the low in earnings. That low would provide the best entry point to what could be a large rally in non-US equities next year.

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