We kept the number of predictions small here at News Kontent but we have always been gold and silver bulls and generally secular equity bears. The news out of Dubai is bad for equities and another issue for a dollar anchored by a ME dollar peg and the implied dollar/oil convertability. Jim Willie's hyperbole is starting to sound reasonable.
Not in the last few years have conditions been aligned for a truly explosive upward move in the gold & silver prices. A confluence of factors simply could not be more bullish, promising, and powerful. The psychology has also been raised in awareness on a global basis, as financial centers, media networks, and common folks have coordinated their recognition of the gold bull. They comprehend perhaps two or three of the main factors why gold is rising, out my stated list in a recent article "13 Reasons For a Major Gold Breakout" in September. The trio of fundamentals, psychology, and technical chart constitute the trifecta that will push gold & silver to extreme heights, and crush the silly shorts with their myopic half-baked tactics that are certain to make them roadkill, then someone else's lunch. The factors overlooked by most for the precious metals breakout run pertain to the broken monetary system, the Paradigm Shift away from the USDollar on both financial reserves management and commercial trade settlement, failure of the central bank franchise system, recognition of a criminal syndicate in charge of USGovt financial operations, the Black Hole of severe endless losses by firms taken under the USGovt aegis (AIG, Fannie Mae, and Wall Street firms), the hemorrhage of USGovt deficits, and lastly the dishonor of financial contract law, chronic lapses in financial market integrity, and constant intervention in those financial markets.
FALLACY IN THE DOW STOCK RALLY
The investment community rejoices when the USDollar slides further, since they have learned like a shallow minded Pavlov Dog that stocks gain. One anchor asked on Monday a basic question, "Gee, what happens if the USDollar heads toward zero, but the Dow charges ahead toward 30,000? Where does that leave us?" What a good question! The financial news networks have begun to openly wonder about the Dollar-Stock relationship and its endurance, but not yet what it means. They overlook how the S&P500 has fallen by 80% in the last several years in terms of its gold value. This is a stock bear market fully disguised, made hard to notice since the value of US money is falling fast. The stock market is rising from very easy money. One usage of the free money offered is investment in the US stock indexes. Others are Gold, Crude Oil, German Govt bonds, and commodity funds. in the Dollar Carry Trade, identified by borrowing free money and buying rising assets.
Like Wiley Coyote, a realization will soon come of a position over the canyon without footing for the stock investors. They are not prepared for a Double Dip recession, nor recognition of a recession that never ended. The common consensus belief is that the sharply lower USDollar will revitalize the USEconomy, will give a huge boost to export trade, will prevent the ravages of price deflation, will encourage foreign investment, will revive the labor market, and more baseless analytic rubbish best described as propaganda. Chalk it up to creative rationalizations and fantasy entries to the latest chapter of American Economic Mythology, and endless series of wrongful notions that has gutted the nation, enabled by the big banker parasites. Credit to Darryl Schoon for the fine image of blood sucking and targets, consistent with the Matt Taibbi comparison of Goldman Sachs to a vampire squid that extends its blood funnel into anything smelling like money across the entire planet. Their reputation is finally seeing a spot of smear. Their plants like Geithner at Treasury Secy as finally suffering some disrespect as anger is shown.
Actually, this misguided belief of perking the USEconomy from a cheaper USDollar is not only horrendously incorrect, but it is backwards. The lower value of the USDollar has numerous extremely damaging effects, will cripple the United States further, and will eventually lead the nation to a place that is best described as a Third World nation. Let's examine each claim, each plank from the positive spin, then dismiss them all.
#1. A cheaper USDollar will give a huge boost to export trade. In normal times, the effect is direct and immediate, provided the USEconomy has a critical mass of an industrial base. The 1980 and 1990 decade sent almost the entire technology manufacturing factory base to Japan and the Pacific Rim. In the years 2000 to 2004, the US corporations invested heavily in China. Recall the 'Low Cost Solutions' that resulted in lost American jobs, burgeoning Chinese trade surpluses, and a climax in tension from a broadening trade war. The trade war was forecasted three years ago here. The USEconomy surely has some export businesses, but nothing to claim as broad. Moreover, the restrictions on computer and telecommunications export remain. The Chinese cannot purchase them, so they steal their designs left unprotected on the internet websites (see Sandia Labs). The above claim (#1) has no basis, as the gain in export business will show good growth, but its base will be too small to provide much significance. From an export trade standpoint, the common consensus belief is that the sharply lower USDollar will revitalize the USEconomy is nonsense.
#2. A cheaper USDollar will prevent the ravages of price deflation. Such a belief requires a shallow broad view with no distinction of various markets at all from a price perspective. The effect so far from the lower US$ has been higher crude oil price, higher industrial metal price, higher sugar price, and high prices for many other commodities. The effect shows up as a higher entire cost structure, enough to cause great strain. The scourge of the USDollar powerful relentless ongoing decline is the effect of commodity costs, something the investment community and bank leadership prefers to avoid in discussions. The above claim (#2) has no basis, as the entire cost structure of the USEconomy is in the process of rising. Notice higher costs with lower wages and shrinking corporate profit margins. These are hallmarks of an inflationary recession, hardly a positive development, and surely not a recovery. From prevented price deflation standpoint, the common consensus belief is that the sharply lower USDollar will revitalize the USEconomy is nonsense.
#3. A cheaper USDollar will encourage foreign investment. In normal times, the effect is direct and immediate, provided the USGovt and state governments create the right environment, and provided foreign corporations trust the skill level of American workers. Neither condition exists. Business regulations and taxes prohibit foreign firms from even considering much investment and expansion onto US shores. The United States continually ranks near the bottom in attractive for business environment in which to invest. As for their observation on American workers, they regard them as hard working but not blessed with sufficient skills or education. Asians have a big advantage on math and science skills. Increasingly, Americans are finding themselves unemployable, or else skilled in areas that serve as extensions to bubble economy businesses like home construction and mortgage finance. A nasty red herring exists on the foreign investment notion. The foreign corporate chieftains sense a looming risk of martial law, growing social chaos, and widening grassroot movements in opposition to the government and bankers. The above claim (#3) has no basis, as almost every single aspect gives off big warning signals or delivers roadblocks. From a foreign investment standpoint, the common consensus belief is that the sharply lower USDollar will revitalize the USEconomy is nonsense.
#4. A cheaper USDollar will revive the labor market. The USGovt and Wall Street each claim that interest rates must remain down since all the excess capacity in the system provides too much slack, thus a dampened price effect. Nowhere is that more clear that with wages, as workers continue to be shed in massive numbers. The ravages of price deflation has a continued effect on the labor market, keep wages down. Thus, the parade of continued home foreclosures. Furthermore, the shrinking profit margins inhibit expansion by US corporations. Just the opposite. They respond by reducing the workforce for the firms. The lack of incremental foreign investment, for reasons described above, also results in less revival of the US labor market. Please show me some big news items of foreign firms setting up shop in the Untied States, with a couple thousand new jobs that provide a nice shot in the arm for the labor market. The above claim (#4) has no basis, as the labor market will stick out as the grand contradiction to any claimed USEconomic recovery. The so-called Jobless Recovery is more like a Job-Loss Recovery. From a revived labor standpoint, the common consensus belief is that the sharply lower USDollar will revitalize the USEconomy is nonsense.
OFFICIAL RESPONSE: MORE DEFICITS, MORE MONETIZATION
The USGovt executive branch, the UDept Treasury ministry, and the USFed central bank are all desperate. The USEconomy has deteriorated to a great extent, and will degrade more. The incoming revenues to the USGovt are way down, another contradiction to recovery claims. Credit growth has gone into reverse. Foreign dependence for credit supply has turned acute. The federal debt limit is soon to be breached. The Obama Admin seems on a mission to force a USTreasury debt explosion and default. Integrity of the Wall Street capital market system had been extremely downgraded. Now comes the reports (none denied by ranking sources) of tungsten gold bars, the climax of national fraud by US bankers. The response on the official government and banker side has been more monetization. Also, no interest rate hike for as far as the eye can see. Today JPMorgan announced a new 162 Euro currency target, and stated its belief of no USFed rate hike until 2012. They should know, since they are the USFed, at least their administrative side for following through on market actions. They openly recognize the Dollar Carry Trade, a surprise even to my eyes.
The USTreasury auctions receive some of the least scrutiny and investigation in memory. The rapid move to Permanent Open Market Action that buys all the official bond dealer inventory renders the process to be indirect delayed monetization. The printing pre$$ payouts for foreign USAgency Mortgage Bonds enables foreign central banks to purchase USTreasurys at auction also renders the process to be indirect immediate monetization. Before long, the entire official auction process will be an exercise in direct recognized open monetization, deemed necessary due to abandonment by foreign creditors and disgust. That will be the turning point for a rapid shocking USDollar decline and the introduction to hyper-inflation within the US shores.
BREAKDOWNS LEAD TO GOLD PRICE ADVANCE
The most recent development is clearly the exposure of the tungsten gold bars. Some extremely naive analysts and editors alike will be the last to know what is happening, as they deny the story. One editor has a military intelligence background, which accounts for myopia. He also shows only disrespect for the Gold Anti-Trust Action committee (GATA). Their charges of USGovt conspiracy to fix and suppress the gold price have been admitted by Greenspan himself. Cannot the naysayers see the pattern of fraudulent money, fraudulent coins (ok, so pre-1964 silver was copper core -- my bad), fraudulent Fannie Mae bonds, fraudulent mortgage backed bonds, fraudulent municipal bonds, counterfeited USTreasury Bonds, naked shorting of bank stocks, flash trading (the Goldman Sachs front running of NYSE), and constant Plunge Protection Team interventions? The natural climax is tungsten bars given a gold plating. Leave following the trails to others, but one could guess they match the narco pathways.
Anyone who steps forward with actual data, evidence, documents, and hard facts worthy of investigation and high level prosecution is subject to being murdered. So the way this plays out is more likely to be a cratering, a dismantling, a breakdown in the gold metals exchange. The weak link, as claimed by both GATA and hard charging analysts like Jim Sinclair with Dan Norcini, is the lack of physical gold. The metals exchanges have been running a criminal shell game for years. They do not require collateral properly placed, like 80% on short sales. In London they are digging from the 50 and 60 year old barrels to produce gold bars for delivery. In London they are hastily seeking gold bars from the Bank of England and European Union central banks in order to avert delivery defaults. The strain was evident last spring when Deutsche Bank was caught without sufficient gold, rescued by the Euro Central Bank in the nick of time. The strain was repeated in early October when London borrowed central bank gold bullion in the nick of time. Word has it that all delivery demands were met, and all were from Asia, predominantly from China. The strain will repeat by the end of this November month. The strain will again reach critical levels in March, and if the system holds together after the upcoming demands for gold delivery are handled, or not managed, whatever, we will see events reaching climax next March and the spring months heading into June.
Review some indirect evidence serving as confirmation of the tungsten gold bar story. This is inductive reasoning, at the basic level. The London and New York metals exchanges cannot complete delivery of any order over one metric tonne without fresh assay reports. Trust has been shattered. This was never required before, but is now. Why is that? Could it be that Hong Kong's revelation of 5600 tungsten bars (fake gold) was true, verified, and spread via a global alert? Yes, clearly! Assayers the world over are unavailable. They are all tied up as bullion bankers, sovereign wealth fund managers, lesser central banks, and individual billionaires are scrambling to verify their gold holdings. The assayers were entirely available two months ago, but not now. Why is that? Could it be that Hong Kong's revelation of 5600 tungsten bars (fake gold) were true, verified, and spread via a global alert? Yes, clearly!
The Canadian Mint has released information that admits to 17.5 thousand troy ounces of gold and other precious metals missing, whose estimated value is $15.3 million. No credible explanation has been offered for the missing inventory. These are not lamps, boxes of paper, crates of machine tools, floor tile, stereo sets, or power tools sitting in inventory. These are gold bars. Or were they tungsten bars? Permit the Jackass to surmise that the Canadian Mint were interrupted in their coin production process. They poured what they thought were gold bars into a cauldron, but since tungsten melts at 8000 degrees, and gold melts at 2200 degrees, the cauldron soup was lumpy with tungsten cheese. Instead of admitting they held and discovered 17.5 thousand ounces of tungsten, sure to rile the Wall Street boys, sure to turn the gold market upside down more than already, sure to invite severe scrutiny to many bankers who already face criticism (but not prosecution) over mortgage bond fraud, THEY JUST SAY IT IS MISSING !!! Just where did it go, Ottawa? Did some high level bankers (surely not Goldman Sachs) borrow it or steal it? Maybe it went to an industrial supplier that specializes in zinc, tin, copper, lead, and tungsten!!! See the National Post article (CLICK HERE). It seems the B.S. story of lost gold invites the least criticism, scrutiny, and follow through, amazingly. Theft and fraud is rampant, and the name of the game. Of course, incompetence, and clumsiness are more acceptable than corruption and collusion.
The end result of all the extra authentication processes, the absence of available assayers. the missing gold at mints, and the scattered reports of tungsten gold that have this week extended to at least on European bank location in addition to Hong Kong, is less actual verifiable gold bullion in the hands of people that trade it. In other words, THE GOLD SHORTAGE IS MORE REVEALED AND EXPOSED. Notice lastly, the no Hong Kong banker denied the story of discovering tungsten bars with gold plating. Instead, the story proliferated to a global examining of gold inventory. Notice also that no Depositor bullion bank invited investigators inside for a closer look at inventory, after doubt and lost confidence within the system occurred. These are all tell-tale coincident signs, indirect evidence in support of the tungsten salted bars and the entire story. One has to be with a military intelligence background not to see it.
GOLD EXPLOSION COMING
Gold continues to log new highs. The market forces are powerful. The corrupt cords are being severed. The bottom of the barrels are being scoured for physical gold. Investors and investment firms want some real assets instead of mountains of paper assets. Paper piles are burning. A gold price explosion is coming. They cannot stop the gold locomotive. Monday this week was gold futures options expiration. The expiry was met the previous Thursday and Friday last week with gold closing at the highs for the day, and on Monday with a 12-15 point upward thrust. Pain is being felt in a big way with the gold cartel from their suppression game that backfires. Those two days ending last week formed daily bullish hammers, very bullish signals, identified by a high open, intraday prices much lower, but with a strong high close. Hey London, Hey New York: Open vise, insert nether stones, squeeze, and invite the dogs to feed off the floor. The pressure is on. The lack of real gold is palpable. the price rises. Heads will soon roll.
Exchange officials of middle rank will be the first led away in handcuffs, not by the FBI, not by the CFTC, but by state authorities and perhaps federal marshalls. The federales are part of the syndicate (lack of) law enforcement. Why middle level guys? Because they will offer evidence and testimony against the targeted higher level officials. Many people like myself wish for a much broader exposure of criminal behavior, some prosecutions, some justice, and an end to the Age of Impunity in the Untied States that comes with the Fascist Business Model. We will find little satisfaction, except for the breakdown of the Gold-Dollar balance beam in progress. The gold & silver prices might be the main satisfaction felt. The USDollar decline might be another satisfaction. Look for strange and misleading inaccurate stories to come from the metals exchanges as they break down. Also look for something to pop up with all those guys from last August who appealed for asylum in Europe, bearing boxes of Wall Street fraud evidence. That is saved for the Hat Trick Letter reports.
Predicting the gold price at this point accurately is difficult. The Powerz are losing control. The price advances are actually occurring in a welcome manner to the Chinese. They are the primary parties in accumulation. They will push the price higher only when gold supply at the current price is no longer available, their new Modus Operandi. A gradual rise in gold price actually works the best to crush the nether stones of the corrupted metals exchanges. Few big corrections are likely to come. The price rise is being managed in much the same way as the suppression was managed. The risk is for an accident that releases control of the gold price. In that case we will see a repeat of the Mt St Helens. A 1300 price is the next target, but it is just a target. It could be easily passed. When it is passed, the next target will be something like 1500 or 2000. The shorts will be crushed, of all types, who get in the way. We are in global redesign and restructure that removes the US & UK players from the helm. They are only left with viruses to distribute after bond fraud and gold counterfeit. The USDollar is slowly suffering a death. Few in the Untied States can recognize it, since they reside inside the Dome of Perception.
Copyright © 2009 Jim Willie, CB
Editorial Archive
Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials.
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER” Use the below link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1124.html
No comments:
Post a Comment