29 August 2007

Current Observations

Consider the following excerpt from Peter Eliades online "Current Observations":

We seldom use much newsletter space for the ideas of others, but the theories we are about to present fit together so well, we believe you will find them as interesting as we do. The two researchers are Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") and Chris Carolan. Chris just won the 1998 Charles H. Dow Award for his original research and the complete article is offered on his website at http://www.calendarresearch.com . The research by Puetz was first noted in our October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we wrote:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

There's a solar eclipse on September 11th that will be preceded by a total lunar eclipse on August 28th. Furthermore, the full moon on July 30th occurs six weeks before the 9/11 solar eclipse. As indicated above, this means a stock market crash window will occur from July 24th to August 2nd.

This window should be expanded to a week before and after full moons according to a University of Michigan Business School study by Ilia Dichev and Troy Janes. This study examined 100 years of the stock market trends as they relate to the lunar phases. According to it, “Returns in the 15 days around New Moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive: We find it for all major U.S stock indexes over the past 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years.”

Thus, from the week before to the week after the full moon on July 30th, there is the potential for a stock market crash. This potential seems much greater given the reversal from the 14000 mark in the DJIA and the Hindenburg Omen cluster.


Given that we are entering a window for a possible worldwide panic and global collapse of stock markets, it begs the question as to why?

If, indeed, a new large-scale decline in U.S. stock prices is getting underway, then what sort of events might erupt to upset investors' expectations?

Again, it could be that we are mainly dealing with an unraveling of the debt bubble that has been inflated by reckless government and Federal Reserve policies in recent years and decades. If so, then the stock market may now start anticipating a debt-deflation implosion in the economy that astute thinkers like Robert Prechter have been warning about for years.

Beyond the potential for a deflationary economic depression, however, what Prechter and other such long-wave theorists fail to recognize is that the social wave patterns they analyze do not necessarily unfold in a consequential manner, i.e., where a downturn in mood gives rise to the negative thinking and associated actions that beget greater upsets in collective confidence and reinforce given downtrends in collective mood. Rather, such historical wave patterns are synchronistic such that reversals and large-scale downtrends manifest as negative events collectively experienced as mass mood collapses. Accordingly, a reversal Dow 14,000 may be connected to negative historical shock(s) outside of financial markets and the economy. My concern remains for terrorism involving weapons of mass destruction and/or ultimately global nuclear war as I foresaw back in 1991.

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