29 August 2007

Autumn Panics A Calendar Phenomenon

Calendar Research Inc.: Autumn Panics A Calendar Phenomenon: "The crash of the Hong Kong stock market in October 1997, with its obvious parallels to similar events in the U.S. in 1987 and 1929, once again raises the specter of October as a dark and ominous month for stocks. Is it merely a coincidence that these three crashes all occurred in October? Is there a timing pattern among autumn panics useful to market participants? This article expands upon the observation, originally contained in Chapter 1 of the author’s book, The Spiral Calendar1, outlining the correlation between the lunar calendar and the stock market panics of 1929 and 1987. This paper examines how the 1997 Hong Kong panic conforms to that earlier model, as well as examines the great autumn panics of the 19th century. Finally, a look at the peculiar international character of panics, and its implications for the possible causes of these panics."

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

All October panics have occurred around the full Moon and before the new Moon without exception. The historic listing by Kindleberger and all DJI AOD falls > -3.60% gives you October panics in 1847, 1857, 1897, 1903, 1907, 1927, 1929, 1937, 1987, 1989, 1997 and 2008. (NB: the annual one day (AOD) fall is the biggest % one day fall in the year beginning Mar 1).

Please note the emphasis on 7 ended years and years ended in odd numbers - this can be explained in terms of cycles.

cheers David