Severe recession - Commentary - California Housing Forecast by The Berkland Group: "Just a reminder: we are headed into a severe recession, and you will not get any advance warning from any economists or our government. Our government officials have never warned us of a recession, as their job is to instill confidence. Even if they knew we would have a recession, they will never come out and say so.
Economists are no better at forecasting than the government. In September 2000, a 'Blue Chip' top 50 forecaster projection polled 50 economist, and not even one of them predicted the recession of 2000-2001. Their average outlook was for a 2.4% growth rate.
Instead, look to these reliable historic indicators which are now all flashing red alerts, as explained here
In the past recessions have occurred under the following circumstances:
1) Whenever GDP growth was below 3% annualized for 5 consecutive quarters.
2) When the Fed tightened monetary policy (8 of the last 10 times).
3) When the yield curve was inverted (6 of the last 7 times).
4) When the Conference Board Leading Indicators were 0.5% or more below a year earlier (9 of the last 10 times).
5) When new building permits were 25% or more below a "
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