30 March 2007

Each day, the risk of war grows in the Persian Gulf Europe 2020

Behind ongoing Israel-Palestine peace plans looms USA-Israel-Iran open conflict
- Decoded news (March 29, 2007) -

In GEAB N°11 (published January 15th), LEAP/E2020 wrote: "Middle East: To conceal its failure in Iraq, the Bush administration is preparing a Shiite-Sunni intra-Muslim war, while Israel gets ready to launch tactical nuclear weapons on Iran's nuclear programme .... The approaching 2008 presidential election will radicalize the two camps starting in spring 2007. Pro-Israeli Democrats on the one hand and a pro-Zionist Bush administration on the other hand will result in placing the Israelo-Iranian crisis on Washington's agenda sometimes in the next three months...".

Today harbingers of war multiply, and paradoxically they take the form of peace talks. The Condoleeza Rice trips to the Middle-East (1), the Riyadh Arab summit to revive Saudi peace plan,… are only meant to conceal the intensity of diplomatic activity in fact designed to prepare and organise the Sunni front (or rather, to avoid it from weakening too much (2)) against Shiite Iran. Far from indicating an appeasement, these moves suggest the imminence of the crisis, where indeed, contrary to the ancient Roman saying "si vis pacem, para bellum", players pretend to prepare peace because they want war. Washington and Tel Aviv strive to prevent withdrawals inside the Sunni camp while Teheran tries to manipulate the United Kingdom (3) in this “phony war”.

The US entry into the « very great depression » generates a stream of domestic crises: political (daily oppositions between Congress and President), economic (entry into recession), financial (bursting of housing-financial bubble) and social (millions of Americans put out on the street). Such a critical domestic situation is pushing Washington to the confrontation with Iran, in order to divert the nation's attention from internal problems.

This conflict will account for a key-factor of the tipping point of the global systemic crisis which LEAP/E2020 anticipated would take place in April 2007. On April 16th, in GEAB N°14 (on subscription), LEAP/E2020 will release its anticipation of the political, economic and strategic consequences of the crisis, including a military anticipation entitled: « Iran-Israel-USA conflict 2007: Towards the first US aircraft carrier sunk since WWII? (4)".

Notes :

(1) Ms Rice's trips to the Middle-East have no chance to reach any concrete result, as explained by this article « Rice and Olmert: disagreement is convenient » published in Haaretz 03/27/2007.

(2) In the past few days, leaders from the Arab Emirates made various declarations intended to disengage their responsibility in the event of a US air strike on Iran: « Emirats Arabes Unis: pas de mise à disposition du territoire en cas d'attaque contre l'Iran », Agence Novosti, 03/27/2007.

(3) As described clearly by the article « British pawns in an Iranian game » published in l'Asia Times 03/29/2007.

(4) The last US aircraft carrier that was sunk in combat was the USS Bismarck Sea, Feb. 21, off the cost of Iwo Jima. Source : « The Lost American Aircraft Carriers ».

In the same category:
GEAB N°13 is available! Global systemic crisis / Housing, financial institutions, stock markets, consumption, currencies: The contagion

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