Generational Dynamics - America's Manifest Destiny - War against Terror - Freedom and Democracy: "These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics for Historians, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
I am pleased to make this manuscript available online for questions, criticisms and comments. This manuscript will be under active continued development during the period it's online, so don't be surprised to see changes from day to day. The manuscript is still very rough in places, and some sections are not yet complete. "
23 June 2006
Advice to Invest Less in U.S. Bonds
Advice to Invest Less in U.S. Bonds: "A former U.S. Treasury secretary is advising some of the world's biggest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds that they ought to find much better ways to invest their money.
Lawrence H. Summers, who headed the Treasury in the last 18 months of the Clinton administration, has argued in recent speeches that developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa should put much of their excess funds into stocks. Too often, he contends, the central banks of those countries invest their hoards of foreign securities -- now totaling several trillion dollars -- in safe but low-yielding U.S. Treasurys."
Lawrence H. Summers, who headed the Treasury in the last 18 months of the Clinton administration, has argued in recent speeches that developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa should put much of their excess funds into stocks. Too often, he contends, the central banks of those countries invest their hoards of foreign securities -- now totaling several trillion dollars -- in safe but low-yielding U.S. Treasurys."
Gold Derivatives: Da Goldman Code
commentary31: "Gibson's Paradox is a phenomenon first observed under the classical gold standard, when long-term interest rates moved in tandem with the general price level. It was a paradox precisely because rates moved with actual prices rather than inflationary expectations. In a similar vein, recent research makes the case that actual gold prices are a far better predictor of interest rates and inflation than other more frequently used measures. D. Ranson, Why gold, not oil is the superior predictor of inflation, (H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics study, published by World Gold Council, November 2005).
Precisely because it anticipates inflation so well, gold is also a powerful predictor of nominal interest interest rates, both long and short. This, in fact, is a more rigorous test of the relative powers of gold and oil, because bond market performance is an objective indicator, and is free from many of the errors of measurement that bedevil the official indices of inflation. In similar research on short-term interest rates we have obtained very similar results.
Our calculations show that the time frame that yields the optimum correlation (0.73) between changes in the price of gold and changes in the 10-year T-bond rate is about twelve months. ... These results reveal two respects in which the information in the gold price is superior [to oil prices]: gold provides a much earlier warning, and the correlation with interest rates is significantly tighter regardless of the time frame.
* * * * *
The investment applications of gold are numerous, but not widely recognized. Analysts often try to anticipate where the price of gold is heading; however, knowing where it has already been is far more fruitful. Despite growing recognition of gold's forecasting power, investors schooled to believe that gold is a 'barbarous relic'"
Precisely because it anticipates inflation so well, gold is also a powerful predictor of nominal interest interest rates, both long and short. This, in fact, is a more rigorous test of the relative powers of gold and oil, because bond market performance is an objective indicator, and is free from many of the errors of measurement that bedevil the official indices of inflation. In similar research on short-term interest rates we have obtained very similar results.
Our calculations show that the time frame that yields the optimum correlation (0.73) between changes in the price of gold and changes in the 10-year T-bond rate is about twelve months. ... These results reveal two respects in which the information in the gold price is superior [to oil prices]: gold provides a much earlier warning, and the correlation with interest rates is significantly tighter regardless of the time frame.
* * * * *
The investment applications of gold are numerous, but not widely recognized. Analysts often try to anticipate where the price of gold is heading; however, knowing where it has already been is far more fruitful. Despite growing recognition of gold's forecasting power, investors schooled to believe that gold is a 'barbarous relic'"
HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Miami, Florida
HousingTracker: Median Home Price & Inventory Data for Miami, Florida: "Trend06/21/20061 month3 month6 month9 month
Median Price$390,000-1.3%-2.3%-2.5%-6.7%
Inventory35,346+5.6%+21.4%+73.3%+148.0%"
Median Price$390,000-1.3%-2.3%-2.5%-6.7%
Inventory35,346+5.6%+21.4%+73.3%+148.0%"
Inflation Ravages U.S. Wages, Fueling Angst at Bush's Economy
Bloomberg.com: U.S.: "June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Americans' wage gains are evaporating as inflation accelerates, helping explain why confidence in the economy isn't soaring along with job growth.
Weekly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.7 percent last month and are down 0.2 percent over the past year, according to a report last week by the Labor Department. Pay has been flat or declined in more than half of the 65 months since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office.
Those numbers contrast with other government reports showing incomes for all workers staying a step ahead of prices, highlighting a growing disparity between the wealthy and those of more modest means. The difference may explain why the economy's performance isn't translating into greater popularity for Bush, whose poll ratings hover near record lows. "
Weekly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.7 percent last month and are down 0.2 percent over the past year, according to a report last week by the Labor Department. Pay has been flat or declined in more than half of the 65 months since January 2001, when President George W. Bush took office.
Those numbers contrast with other government reports showing incomes for all workers staying a step ahead of prices, highlighting a growing disparity between the wealthy and those of more modest means. The difference may explain why the economy's performance isn't translating into greater popularity for Bush, whose poll ratings hover near record lows. "
No new evidence WMDs were stockpiled
Kansas City Star | 06/23/2006 | No new evidence WMDs were stockpiled: "Intelligence officials say the records on prewar Iraq come in a partly declassified report.
By WARREN P. STROBEL
“This is an incredibly … significant finding.” “… a desperate claim by those who wish that we could find some new way to rationalize the ongoing devastation in Iraq.”
Sen. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Jane Harman, California Democrat
WASHINGTON | - WASHINGTON | A new, partly declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein stockpiled weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S.-led invasion, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion."
By WARREN P. STROBEL
“This is an incredibly … significant finding.” “… a desperate claim by those who wish that we could find some new way to rationalize the ongoing devastation in Iraq.”
Sen. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Jane Harman, California Democrat
WASHINGTON | - WASHINGTON | A new, partly declassified intelligence report provides no new evidence that Saddam Hussein stockpiled weapons of mass destruction just before the U.S.-led invasion, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
The report says that about 500 munitions containing degraded chemical weapons have been found in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion."
20 June 2006
US household deficit spending: a rendezvous with reality
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
19 June 2006
Institutional policy and the veneer of civilization
Dude, where's the Dharma: Institutional policy and the veneer of civilization: "It is a feature of the leading institutions of any empire to look the wrong way at the wrong time- to try an old technique when its time has past. 6 years ago I think the US population would have accepted (with some grumbling) a cleansing recession that restored a degree of balance to international trade. In the event, the Neo-cons beat out the Larry Lindsey's and Paul O'Neill's and the military option, one of the oldest tricks in the book, was the policy option on which the Bush Presidency's credibility was spent.
One of the ironies of history is summed up by this quote from Jean de La Fountaine: A person often meets his destiny on the path he took to avoid it. It will be ironic indeed is those who claimed the end of history will have been instrumental in reviving the cycle, if such proves to be the case."
One of the ironies of history is summed up by this quote from Jean de La Fountaine: A person often meets his destiny on the path he took to avoid it. It will be ironic indeed is those who claimed the end of history will have been instrumental in reviving the cycle, if such proves to be the case."
18 June 2006
Nation's love affair with McMansions shows signs of waning: South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Nation's love affair with McMansions shows signs of waning: South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "The golden age of McMansions may be coming to an end. These oversized homes _ characterized by sprawling layouts on small lots, and built in cookie-cutter style by big developers _ fueled much of the housing boom. But thanks to rising energy and mortgage costs, shrinking families and a growing number of retirement-age baby boomers set on downsizing, there are signs of an emerging glut.
Interviews with dozens of real-estate agents, sellers, developers and housing economists turn up signs across the country. In an affluent Dallas ZIP Code, where half the houses have four bedrooms or more, home sales fell 31 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. But sales rose 23 percent in a nearby ZIP Code where 7 percent of houses have that many bedrooms. In Santa Fe, N.M., homes in the 2,000-square-foot range sell within weeks, while larger ones languish for months, says broker Pat French. In the Boston metro area, sales of homes with four or more bedrooms were flat in the first quarter from a year earlier; sales of homes with three bedrooms or fewer rose 14 percent. New Jersey appraiser Jeffrey Otteau says the inventory level statewide for large, $1 million-plus houses stands at 13 months, more than twice the state's overall average of six months"
Interviews with dozens of real-estate agents, sellers, developers and housing economists turn up signs across the country. In an affluent Dallas ZIP Code, where half the houses have four bedrooms or more, home sales fell 31 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. But sales rose 23 percent in a nearby ZIP Code where 7 percent of houses have that many bedrooms. In Santa Fe, N.M., homes in the 2,000-square-foot range sell within weeks, while larger ones languish for months, says broker Pat French. In the Boston metro area, sales of homes with four or more bedrooms were flat in the first quarter from a year earlier; sales of homes with three bedrooms or fewer rose 14 percent. New Jersey appraiser Jeffrey Otteau says the inventory level statewide for large, $1 million-plus houses stands at 13 months, more than twice the state's overall average of six months"
Big Correction in Australia
#: "Ouch! That hurt. Despite Friday's bounce the sharemarket has endured a sobering reversal in the last month and is still down about 7.5 per cent from it's peak on May 11. When the smoke cleared on Friday, I decided to find out which stocks had been the 'correction busters"
US household deficit spending: a rendezvous with reality
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Rob Parenteau is a global strategist for RCM
As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
As of Q1 2006, the gap between household sector expenditure and income widened $100b to a nearly $700b deficit at an annualized rate. This deterioration in the household financial balance has been going on since 1997. Since early 2005, the rate of decay has accelerated noticeably. The US household sector financial balance is plunging.
Oddly, while many Wall Street economists decry government spending in excess of income (tax revenues), they turn a blind eye toward private sector deficit spending dynamics. Contemporary economists are trained to view household spending decisions as the aggregation of millions of individuals engaging in intertemporal utility calculations, which by definition must produce rational consumption paths over time. While it is said that ignorance is bliss, such a dramatic deepening of US household deficit spending as that displayed below suggests this is at best a naïve view on the part of contemporary economists, if not a patently absurd one."
17 June 2006
Why a Global Economic Deluge Looms
Gabriel Kolko: Why a Global Economic Deluge Looms: "People who know the most about the world financial system are increasingly worried, and for very good reasons. Dire warnings are coming from the most 'respectable' sources. Reality has gotten out of hand. The demons of greed are loose.
What is that reality? It includes a number of factors. Alone they would be exceedingly serious; combined, they are very likely to be lethal.
First of all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been undergoing both a structural and intellectual crisis. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations--and even less income than its expensive operations require. It is now in deficit.1
A large part of the IMF's problems are due to the doubling in world prices for all commodities since 2003 -- especially petroleum, copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and the like -- that the developing nations traditionally export. While there will be fluctuations in this upsurge, there is also reason to think it may endure because rapid economic growth in China, India, and elsewhere has created a burgeoning demand that did not exist before, when the balance-of-trade systematically favored the rich nations. "
What is that reality? It includes a number of factors. Alone they would be exceedingly serious; combined, they are very likely to be lethal.
First of all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been undergoing both a structural and intellectual crisis. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations--and even less income than its expensive operations require. It is now in deficit.1
A large part of the IMF's problems are due to the doubling in world prices for all commodities since 2003 -- especially petroleum, copper, silver, zinc, nickel, and the like -- that the developing nations traditionally export. While there will be fluctuations in this upsurge, there is also reason to think it may endure because rapid economic growth in China, India, and elsewhere has created a burgeoning demand that did not exist before, when the balance-of-trade systematically favored the rich nations. "
15 June 2006
Why Arabian investors should buy and hold gold! | Financial Planning
Why Arabian investors should buy and hold gold! | Financial Planning: "Arabian investors should be piling into gold at these price levels. For the recent rout of gold prices is entirely down to a concerted attack on gold by the central banks, and the fundamental factors supporting the gold price have got stronger and not weaker.
First, the US dollar is weakening against most currencies. This is supportive of gold which is priced in US dollars. Most currency analysts now believe the dollar is heading lower, and that will keep the gold price rising at least in dollar terms.
Secondly, inflation is now re-appearing all over the world as a menace to economic growth and capital market stability. Gold is the classic 'safe haven' investment and a hedge against inflation.
Safe haven status
Therefore, Arabian investors who want to preserve their wealth in this environment should buy gold and not equities or bonds whose future is much more open to doubt. Indeed, the weakness seen on global capital markets in the past month may be just a sign of days to come, perhaps this autumn, with a full scale financial crisis"
First, the US dollar is weakening against most currencies. This is supportive of gold which is priced in US dollars. Most currency analysts now believe the dollar is heading lower, and that will keep the gold price rising at least in dollar terms.
Secondly, inflation is now re-appearing all over the world as a menace to economic growth and capital market stability. Gold is the classic 'safe haven' investment and a hedge against inflation.
Safe haven status
Therefore, Arabian investors who want to preserve their wealth in this environment should buy gold and not equities or bonds whose future is much more open to doubt. Indeed, the weakness seen on global capital markets in the past month may be just a sign of days to come, perhaps this autumn, with a full scale financial crisis"
Gold Investors Bet on Price Recovery
Bloomberg.com: Canada: "June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold investors, undeterred by the metal's 22 percent drop in a month, increased their holdings of bullion-backed securities in the past two weeks, indicating they expect prices to rebound.
Exchange Traded Gold, which manages gold-backed securities, had 452 metric tons of gold under management as of yesterday, compared with 443 tons on June 1, Simon Village, principal of the London-based company said in an interview. Its gold-backed securities trade on exchanges in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, France and South Africa.
``If they were going to bolt, they'd have done it at a higher level, when it started to fall,'' Village said in the interview from London. ``Gold's got a second wind coming.'' "
Exchange Traded Gold, which manages gold-backed securities, had 452 metric tons of gold under management as of yesterday, compared with 443 tons on June 1, Simon Village, principal of the London-based company said in an interview. Its gold-backed securities trade on exchanges in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, France and South Africa.
``If they were going to bolt, they'd have done it at a higher level, when it started to fall,'' Village said in the interview from London. ``Gold's got a second wind coming.'' "
China's new economic growth mode is good news to the world
People's Daily Online -- China's new economic growth mode is good news to the world: "Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, said in his latest economic review that although China is more influential than any other economy in the world in terms of pushing up global demand for bulk commodities, the new policy made by the Chinese leadership indicates a major shift of the country's growth model --- from high-resources consumption manner to low-resources consumption. He believes this strategy would not only facilitate China's sustainable development, but also well serve the global economy.
Statistics show astonishing proportion of China's contribution to the increase in world's industrial material consumption. Among which, consumption of aluminum increased by 50%, iron ore by 84%, steel by 108%, cement 115%, zinc 120%, and copper and nickel even by triple. China has become the largest consumer of copper, nickel and zinc. Apparently the Chinese economy is mainly based on bulk commodities consuming industrial production and driven by fixed investment and export.
When many think this trend will go on limitless, the Chinese leaders have wisely made the new growth guideline. Stephen Roach expects that the new strategy would bring significant effect to China's economic growth features, and even influence the financial market and global economy.
Stephen Roach also interpreted the newly promulgated 11th Five-year Plan, and found that China would focus more on boosting its domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In his forecast, in the future 5 years, China will maintain annual GDP growth of 7.5% and reduce its resource consumption by 20% per GDP by 2010.
He regards all of this as an implication that the process of China's economic re-balancing has begun.
By Pe"
Statistics show astonishing proportion of China's contribution to the increase in world's industrial material consumption. Among which, consumption of aluminum increased by 50%, iron ore by 84%, steel by 108%, cement 115%, zinc 120%, and copper and nickel even by triple. China has become the largest consumer of copper, nickel and zinc. Apparently the Chinese economy is mainly based on bulk commodities consuming industrial production and driven by fixed investment and export.
When many think this trend will go on limitless, the Chinese leaders have wisely made the new growth guideline. Stephen Roach expects that the new strategy would bring significant effect to China's economic growth features, and even influence the financial market and global economy.
Stephen Roach also interpreted the newly promulgated 11th Five-year Plan, and found that China would focus more on boosting its domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on investment and export.
In his forecast, in the future 5 years, China will maintain annual GDP growth of 7.5% and reduce its resource consumption by 20% per GDP by 2010.
He regards all of this as an implication that the process of China's economic re-balancing has begun.
By Pe"
SCO has made fruitful achievements
The Hindu News Update Service: "Shanghai, June. 15 (PTI): Chinese President Hu Jintao today said the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has made 'fruitful achievements' during the past five years in safeguarding regional peace, security and development.
'The establishment of the SCO five years ago opened up new ways for our six countries to deepen good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial cooperation. After five years, we have made fruitful achievements in our friendly relations and cooperation,' Hu, host of the Fifth SCO Summit said.
Apart from China, the summit involves leaders of SCO member countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgysstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan and four observer countries including India.
In his opening address, Hu, also General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China said the summit would review and summarise the progress and experience of the SCO, look at the current situation and plans for the next step of the organisation.
The summit started at the Shanghai International Convention Centre with red carpets and handshakes between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from the other five member countries -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. "
'The establishment of the SCO five years ago opened up new ways for our six countries to deepen good neighbourliness and mutually beneficial cooperation. After five years, we have made fruitful achievements in our friendly relations and cooperation,' Hu, host of the Fifth SCO Summit said.
Apart from China, the summit involves leaders of SCO member countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgysstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan and four observer countries including India.
In his opening address, Hu, also General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China said the summit would review and summarise the progress and experience of the SCO, look at the current situation and plans for the next step of the organisation.
The summit started at the Shanghai International Convention Centre with red carpets and handshakes between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from the other five member countries -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. "
14 June 2006
Gold owners dismiss price distress
www.miningmx.com | gold_silver Gold owners dismiss price distress: "We tend to worry about the day-to-day price, but the evidence shows that the US has increased money supply about 54% to $10 trillion in the last five years,' Watchorn said.
However, Watchorn sounded a note of caution. 'If the gold price drops below $550/oz, the bull trend would be reversed. That's my personal view,' he said.
Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, one of South Africa's marginal producers, said that Tuesday's severe correction did not reverse the general up-trend in the gold market.
'I looked at some charts earlier today and on December 21 saw that the gold price was $490/oz. That means I'm still $100/oz ahead of where I was six months ago,' Wellesley-Wood said."
However, Watchorn sounded a note of caution. 'If the gold price drops below $550/oz, the bull trend would be reversed. That's my personal view,' he said.
Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, one of South Africa's marginal producers, said that Tuesday's severe correction did not reverse the general up-trend in the gold market.
'I looked at some charts earlier today and on December 21 saw that the gold price was $490/oz. That means I'm still $100/oz ahead of where I was six months ago,' Wellesley-Wood said."
Market Observations
Market Observations: "&P 500 decisively penetrated the neckline after 2 intraday rally attempts that failed. There are 3 numbers to watch for now. The first is 1209.7, that is the projection of the ABC down pattern the market is having. A side, being 1326.7-1245.7 , B side, being 1245.7-1290.75 and C side, projected to be 1290.75-1209.7, given that A=C. The second number to watch for is 1168.2 the reaction low of last October and the third number is 1165 which is the projection of the Head and Shoulders top. "
BOJ May Wait Until July to Raise Rates
Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary: "June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan will probably leave interest rates unchanged this week, waiting until July to raise borrowing costs from close to zero percent for the first time in almost six years.
Nine of 15 economists expect the bank to increase its key overnight rate as early as July, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. All predicted the bank will keep rates on hold after a two-day meeting ends June 15 so that it can review the quarterly Tankan business confidence survey on July 3.
Japan's zero-rate policy, designed to beat seven years of falling consumer prices, now risks kindling inflation as companies start to pass on higher raw material costs. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in a May 31 interview that ``upward pressure on prices will increase'' as the economy heads for its longest postwar expansion. "
Nine of 15 economists expect the bank to increase its key overnight rate as early as July, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. All predicted the bank will keep rates on hold after a two-day meeting ends June 15 so that it can review the quarterly Tankan business confidence survey on July 3.
Japan's zero-rate policy, designed to beat seven years of falling consumer prices, now risks kindling inflation as companies start to pass on higher raw material costs. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in a May 31 interview that ``upward pressure on prices will increase'' as the economy heads for its longest postwar expansion. "
China's import of copper falls 23 percent
China's import of copper falls 23 percent: "China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were higher on the international market than the domestic market, also dampened the enthusiasm of importers and speculators, the paper quoted Hu Bin, an analyst of Zhejiang Yong'an Futures Company as saying.
Hu said copper importers were losing 5,000-6,000 yuan (625-750 U.S. dollars) per ton due to the price gap.
Spurred by surging copper prices and high profit, Chinese copper enterprises have been expanding smelting capacity since 2003.
The expansion has resulted in excessive production capacity, experts said, warning that the rapid growth of copper smelting could leave domestic raw materials in short supply.
In the late 2005, five ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, jointly published a circular restricting investment in copper smelting.
It is expected that China's copper output will grow over 8 percent to around 2.8 million tons in 2006. In the first four months this year, China's refined copper output grew 26.7 percent to 937,000 tons.China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were h"
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were higher on the international market than the domestic market, also dampened the enthusiasm of importers and speculators, the paper quoted Hu Bin, an analyst of Zhejiang Yong'an Futures Company as saying.
Hu said copper importers were losing 5,000-6,000 yuan (625-750 U.S. dollars) per ton due to the price gap.
Spurred by surging copper prices and high profit, Chinese copper enterprises have been expanding smelting capacity since 2003.
The expansion has resulted in excessive production capacity, experts said, warning that the rapid growth of copper smelting could leave domestic raw materials in short supply.
In the late 2005, five ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, jointly published a circular restricting investment in copper smelting.
It is expected that China's copper output will grow over 8 percent to around 2.8 million tons in 2006. In the first four months this year, China's refined copper output grew 26.7 percent to 937,000 tons.China's import of copper and copper related products came to 821,465 tons in the first five months of this year, down 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.
This was attributed to the country's macro-control policy on the sector, which came into effect late last year, Shanghai Securities News said Tuesday.
Copper prices, which were h"
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