25 September 2009

Deadly Dollar Carry Trade ~ Jim Willie

Welcome a new carry trade to town! Before introducing it, let it be known that the carry trade concept was not a foreign tool to Robert Rubin, former Goldman Sachs currency superstar and former Treasury Secy in the Clinton Admin. He was the initial Wall Street fox invited to serve in the Dept Treasury henhouse, the beginning of the financial structure ruin for the nation. He served as Treasury Secretary in the same sense that a armored truck heist serves a bank. Rubin designed the Gold Carry Trade in the 1990 decade that took down the Gold price. He arranged for the USTreasury gold lease rate to be in the neighborhood of 1%, made available to Wall Street firms, but NOT YOU! They leased the gold bullion from Fort Knox, the national treasury, and sold it into the market. With proceeds they bought USTreasury Bonds, and ushered in a decade of prosperity, as they like to call it, more like a Stolen Decade of Prosperity in Jackass parlance. They set up this Decade of Despair. The end result was the depletion of the USGovt gold treasure by Wall Street for their private gain, but NOT YOURS! To think Wall Street exists in order to facilitate capital formation for the USEconomy is a gross error of judgment, that misses the entire criminal syndicate function they serve, best described as a vast parasite. The public has finally seen it with the climax death of Lehman Brothers, the nationalizations of the Black Holes in AIG and Fannie Mae, the extortion for the TARP funds, the secrecy upheld for its slush fund distribution, and the defiant posture from the USFed when confronted with audits. The syndicate is showing itself more clearly.

The Gold Carry Trade served its purpose, enriching Goldman Sachs beyond its wildest dreams. They even orchestrated an IPO stock event in order to cash in but retain control from their own deep bounty. Gold descended from $400-450 per ounce down below $300, hitting the depth a year after Rubin’s yeoman service. The USDollar peaked at the same time that gold bottomed. Now with insolvency of the US banks and US households, comes insolvency of the USGovt and the absence of its gold collateral for the USDollar itself, the consequence of Wall Street plunder and pillage.

Be sure to know that the natural order has unfolded the beginning of a quiet murder skein behind the scenes. It has been launched by the death of an ABN Amro banker in the Netherlands and the death of the Freddie Mac Chief Financial Officer, both last spring. Other deaths occurred just last week, four convenient ends for men who might have struck a plea bargain agreements with damning evidence, who might have been targeted by angry elite investment victims, and who might just have known too much about fraudulent money trails. Anyone who buys the suicide stories is dopey at best, a moron at worst. Recall that the businessman Al Capone attended church and gave money to ophanages.


Welcome a new carry trade to town! Here in the present, the new carry trade has begun to take root with the USDollar as its basis. Its requirements are simply stated. It needs a crippled bank system that offers a reliable 0% interest rate, a crippled currency that offers little risk of a rise in exchange rate, and plenty of targeted opportunities to invest in rising asset groups in competition. The gold asset is one such object asset. One is hard pressed to identify a sovereign bond security pitched by a government with any credibility. Their deficits, boatloads of bond issuance, and public statements in desire of weaker currencies tend to rule them out. So Govt Bonds are not a viable object. They are too busy ruining their currencies in the midst of the Competing Currency War. Why just two weeks ago, the Swiss Govt announced their frustration at a rising currency, despite all efforts to undermine their Franc currency. They will be forced to redouble their destructive efforts. The Europeans did NOT want to reduce interest rates a year ago, but they did, a correct Jackass forecast that went directly against some banker contacts. That shows the power of the Competing Currency War, since the Euro currency had risen to 160, sufficient to render considerable harm to the European Union Economy in its export trade. With numerous currencies ‘frozen’ from programmed destruction, the time is ripe for the USDollar Carry Trade to be launched. It has been launched. THIS CARRY TRADE WILL PUNISH THE USDOLLAR BADLY AS IT WEARS A BADGE OF SHAME!

The ruinous bursted bubble from Japan around 1990 and the seemingly endless years of 0% Japanese money enabled the Yen Carry Trade against a backdrop of a chronically insolvent Japanese bank system. A critical characteristic of that carry trade was that heavy leverage applied enormous pressure in a way so as to maintain the low Yen currency and the high US$ currency. In the summer 2008 when the USFed took the official interest down to 0.25% and stuck it there, the USDollar Carry Trade was assured of a vigorous run through the financial factories. Here is what is so important about its upcoming entrenchment. The US$ exchange rates will be heavily subdued, with any rebounds totally smothered, resulting in a relentless Gold rise with gusto. The shorting of the US$ is key for the supply of funds. It comes as borrowed US$ funds used outside the US Sphere, thus net bearish. It comes as leveraged instruments designed to capitalize on a continued US$ decline integrated into securities like with short DX contracts.

The coordinated and systematic ruin of major currencies, through monetizations, through vast federal deficits, through sustained near 0% official rates, and through chronically insolvent national bank systems, will assure that the Gold asset will be a favorite for the USDollar Carry Trade for at least a couple years, maybe more. Furthermore, installation of the USDollar Carry Trade will assure that No Exit Strategy will be available to the USFed also. Wall Street firms will participate in this free lunch carry trade, just like all others. Wall Street will not permit a USFed rate hike to firm the US$ exchange rate. Talk about a strong perverse factor behind the USDollar. This is every bit as powerful as the ‘Beijing Gold Put’ analyzed in the Hat Trick Letter issued in September.

Continued forces will be at work in a variety of ways to continue the thrust and duration of this new USDollar Carry Trade, sure to keep it badly subdued. The risk is so great that a USTreasury Bond default could even become the last stop on its pathogenesis pathway. Just today, the compromised erudite spokesman Lawrence Meyers actually said the USFed will probably remain on hold for its near 0% interest rate until the end of 2011. That is NOT a misprint!!! The USFed will justify its decision not to hike rates, not to halt money creation, all the while discussing theoretically an Exit Strategy. Try not to laugh too hard! Also, the US$ Swap Facilities are scheduled to end in October 2009. Their extension should be very harmful for the USDollar, from the bad publicity and the understood urgent implicit desperate need. The next wave of US bank losses will arrive to coincide with the falling of the leaves in autumn, an apt parallel. The inability of the USFed to conduct and execute any Exit Strategy at all is powerful impetus behind the development of the USDollar Carry Trade, and the powerful lift it gives the Gold price. They cannot raise interest rates. The Stimulus Bill has run its measly course. The monetary stimulus must remain in place. The Uncle Sam patient is imprisoned in the Intensive Care Ward.

....The phenomenon will be much like a flesh eating bacteria. What is eaten during unbridled USFed money creation and USGovt debt issuance is the USEconomic capital, both industial capital and household capital. The most misunderstood aspect of the profound accommodation with near 0% rate of interest (ZIRP) and enormous mountains of printed money (QE) is the destruction of USEconomic capital. Not only is new capital formation NOT possible, but capital is liquidated and banks are hesitant to lend even to good customers. Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Easing serve as the most severe and formidable Weapons of Mass Destruction to capital that the modern world has ever seen. See small business sector, see the car industry & supply lines, see construction sector, and much more. Both the ZIRP and QE are fuel and lubricant both to power gold to the $2000 level, serving as vivid battle cries!

The tragedy of modern day central banking, a franchise in total failure, has been the hidden destruction of capital with their full blessing. The central bankers cheered the dispatch of US factories to China so as to exploit cheaper labor, labeling ‘Low Cost Solutions’ as the myth chapter. Debt replaced income. They cheered the raid of equity from US homes after urging a housing bubble creation. Foreclosures resulted. They justified the absurd legitimacy of a USEconomy structured atop a housing bubble, calling home equity wealth, labeling ‘Asset Economy’ as the myth chapter. Bank system insolvency resulted. They justified the horrendous US trade gaps and current account deficits, recycled back to the US from Asian and OPEC finance of the USTreasurys, labeling ‘Macro Economy’ as the myth chapter. Credit dependence and now monetization dependence resulted. They cheered the ultra-low rates to stimulate an economic rebound that has not occurred, to their frustration. They endorsed the US bank stock rally, aided and abetted by fraudulent bank balance sheet accounting. Lofty stock valuations (amidst a 97% profit decline) and heavy executive insider selling resulted. They cheered the stupid Clunker Car program that used $9 of USGovt funds for every $1 in fuel costs. A Detroit basket case resulted.

The latest shameful disgraces for the USFed are three. 1) The USFed monetizes USTreasurys during auctions by using the primary dealers as temporary holders before permanent open market operations, and by using foreign central bank sales of USAgency Mortgage Bonds in addition to the USDollar Swap Facility. 2) The USFed just admitted publicly that it had consistently been hiding its Gold Swap Agreements, thus rendering Greenspan a perjury perpetrator and the institution in violation of its contract. 3) New York Fed president Jan Hatzius (another GSax plant) expects the USFed balance sheet to expand by over $1 trillion more. The transgressions of the USFed ensure gold will hit $2000.


1 comment:

Patrick said...

The USD carry will be a hot ticket but first it has to collapse in its current immature form and the big boys need to cover their gold shorts.