13 April 2007

You want some trading advice: here it is..

If one use the Monday, April 9th Dow high of 12,593, and todays low of 12,428, the various fibonacci retraces are:

.89 12,575

.786 12,557

.618 12,530

.50 12,510

.382 12,491

.236 12,467

If one looks at a 15 minute bar chart, these were all momentary stoppage points, as the Dow climbed higher.

Further, when I look at a chart of the last month's correction, I see a typical irregular flat. An easily recognizable corrective pattern. Accompanied by low volume

I see the Bank index looking scary, sitting on the bottom of the bollinger bands.

The CRB index has begun to roll-over. The dollar is hitting new lows.

The key move for the 10 year and 2 year notes started at -15 bps on February 21st, a few days before the plunge. This came to 0 bps on March 22nd, from which it made it back to -7 bps on March 30th. Going thru 0 bps reverses the trend to steepening. Like inverting with a boom, it is a cyclical event that shouldn't be mistaken as deliberate policy.

The key mortgage bond prices have been falling since March 21st. As the falling banking index can attest to.

Things are contracting. Once thru the contraction, the Fed should be unable to print, hence the dollar will firm.

Now, after all the b.s., let's talk about bears. They have terrible eyesight. Sometimes they think they see things that aren't there. And sometimes they don't see things that are there.

Well bears, we are right here, Dow 12,550

Now, how about that big honkin' bear nose. It has a keen sense of smell. And it's currently smelling the last spec play in natural gas yet to play out. Everything else in energy and metals is rolling over. That's the whole thing supporting this game. Base metals and energy. It's over.

The problem with a bear's nose is he smells a rose like a color painting by Raphael (one of the super-ninja turtles I watch). It's a kaliedoscope of colors. That's why your dog will sometimes eat his own poo. And loves to sniff bums. Can't get enough of those colors.

Next, is a bears character. Does he like cheese with his wine? Or, does he just whine? Have you ever heard a bear whine? No, because real bears don't whine. It is the most pathetic sound, and generally only attributed to cubs, or bear clowns.

Bears have a hard time enjoying themselves. They don't have many friends. They don't like to go fishing together. And they tend to drink alone.

These character traits are for the most part anti-social.

Therefore, bears need to get get there noses out of their, or other peoples bums, and start smelling the roses, not the roses of ungentlemanly conduct so often found in the Oval office.

We are at the precipice of soon to be bear heaven.

So, what I don't understand, besides everything, is why are bears whining?

Did you hedge? If you did, did you sell your calls? Did that feel good? Did you add to your shorts at the close? Or are you waiting for the .89 12,575 retrace?

It's great to be a bear. Even better, have that glass of wine with dinner and before bed. Skip the cheese, it smells.

RE: Thanks boo boo, good post AnxiousBear
NEW 4/12/2007 2:26:12 PM
And why do bears whine? Because we HATE being short on up days, we cannot stand being short on up weeks, are disgusted when we are short on up months and man o man, really really can't stand being short on up quarters. It just makes a grown bear cry being on the wrong side of a move even though it MAY HOPEFULLY resolve itself the way you describe. All the dumb bears have now is hope, hope that the master-bankster-greedhead-mega-controllers of the so-called market deem bears now fit to feast.

RE: Unlike the movie "300", the reality is... rasputin
NEW 4/12/2007 2:44:52 PM
...that a few bears CANNOT overcome one-hundred fifty million long-only sheeple, penned into 401(k)/IRA/mutual funds and being led by Wall Street Wolves and DC Gansters.

The only hope for the bears is that the Wolves and Gangsters stumble and that the sheep panic and stampede out of the markets en mass.

However, given the overwhelming programmin of the sheeps, I don't look for this to happen anytime soon, if ever.

Therefore, I intend to not fight the horde of lambs and theie shepherds and will just stay long--gold and silver that is!!!


RE: Unlike the movie JBVO
NEW 4/12/2007 3:01:20 PM
How do you explain 2000 to 2002 when SPX declined 50%? The wolves and sheep existed at that time as well.

RE: I can explain that time-period. rasputin
NEW 4/12/2007 3:15:34 PM
As the NASDAQ bubble burst, the vast majority of sheeps were caught flat-footed at first. However, from about 2001 to 2002, they started to panic-sell.

You may recall it was in the Fall of 2002 that Bernanke was trotted out and started making "helicopter" speeches.

Also, the Fed went into serious Weimar-Repubolic mode, dropping Fed funds rates and cranking up the Monetization Machine.

From that time until this very day (4.5 years and five-thousand point on the DJIA), the sheeps have been lured back into the slaughter pen. This is confirmed by the record amount of stock margin loans currently in place.

Will this bull market REALLY continue forever?

Who knows?

As time goes on, I become more and more convinced that we WILL see Dow 36,000. However, gold will be a t $5000, silver at $200 and a gallon of milk will be $10.

RE: Thanks boo boo, good post boo boo bear
NEW 4/12/2007 2:59:35 PM
I am unaware of any bank, central bank or Federal Reserve ever preventing a bear market.

As you know, bears and bulls learn by getting their a$$e$ burned. That's why, for the most part, we have such little hair in that area. Unless your like my uncle, Big Bubbha Buttle Butter, who lives just down the road from me. Very hairy.

But then, he doesn't trade for a living. Hmmm.

We all pay our dues one way or the other. And I'm one of the guys that has challenged the banks in the courts. I know. The banks were one of the resources that enabled me to trade in the market.

I enjoy the criminal mind. It is that mind that dominates the world of finance, politics, in a nutshell, money. This of course is not news to anyone. But for the trader, the saying is, "think like a criminal."

That used to be posted on this board regularly. Thanks Yogi. I learned a lot from him and mannfm11. I would always write down their comments.

I was 12 when I built my first sailboat. The frustration of getting a good edge, joinery, lofting, was intense. This served me in life in a way that I'll never forget. We all go thru a frustration curve whenever we learn or partake. After a while we realize we survive, and the game gets easier. Instead of drilling a hole at the end of the wood stock, you clamp it so it doesn't split. Softwood crushes if the chisels/planes edge isn't right. And the edge isn't right if it reflects light. Most importantly flatten the back of the steel before you sharpen etc.....

Boats can drive you up the wall, especially when dealing with other peoples messes. Like the markets. But there are proven methods. Whether its in the greeks, elliott wave, time clusters of indicators etc. The tools are endless, and do wonderful work.

I went thru that period of blaming the banks, the boys etc. I don't anymore. I like playing with them. Their very good. Which means maybe I'm pretty good too. Which means there's a lot of people on this board and lurking that are very good. And it's all free.

Is the market rigged. No doubt. The odds are always with the house. We know that. And many people make a living from gambling. They just trade different kinds of paper.

Frustration is very beneficial. It teaches leverage. Ask any mechanic about leverage, and he'll refer you to his favorite cheater bar. I know many grown men today who don't have a clue what that is. I bet Yogi uses a cheater bar a lot. He's probably got a small collection. He's that kind of trader.

Or the use of Oxy/acetalene to free up a bolt/nut. When the action heats up, volatility is when things bust loose. Yogi pee's on the weld to cool it, so he doesn't burn his hand. I know, he said so, and I wrote it down.

This post is in no way intended as boo boo thinks he knows something about trading. It's intended as what the members on this board over the year gave me. Where else do you get a free education?

I'm 49 years old. Maybe I'm just too damn old to get frustrated with the markets anymore.

People here are funny. I appreciate that.

Good trading to all.

RE: I don't understand....... JeckylHeckle
NEW 4/12/2007 2:46:11 PM
I whine because I can't stand the smell of bullshit and we're getting buried in it

RE: I don't understand....... boo boo bear
NEW 4/12/2007 3:07:41 PM
When's it ever been any different? Ten years ago? Twenty years ago? A hundred years ago?

See the problem with going back in time is that our brains thought differently when we were ten years old as compared to twenty years old.

I thought differently at forty than at thirty. The same bull wasn't the same bull anymore. It was either old or new.

Is the market old or new?

RE: where I believe it is different: currency bonfire... JeckylHeckle
NEW 4/12/2007 3:48:58 PM
Every day I wake up hopeful that the markets will illustrate that my fears that authoritarian hijacking of the markets are unfounded, that hyperinflation via this route is not the outcome sought by the monetary authorities. But since July, the number of days offering any hope in that regard has been too few and the showcasing of actions that substantiate those fears of mine has been overwhelming.

I hope and pray that you are right boo boo bear. But it seems here that THIS TIME, when the US debt/income chart has gone hockey stick, the official sector is printing whatever it takes to keep this thing rising. If one day 6 trillion dollars of sell orders hits stocks, I now sorta expect them to buy 7 trillion in stock futures. They have F'd things up so badly

RE: Do technical indicators have any value...? ericblair
NEW 4/12/2007 2:47:22 PM
If it's true that the "markets" are manipulated, and in my view this is prima facie, then do technical indicators have any value? I'm not questioning your competence, or your understanding of historical market forces and/or analysis, I'm just wondering if technical indicators can be applied to rigged markets.

RE: good point imo nm mohonri35
NEW 4/12/2007 2:57:15 PM

RE: Do technical indicators have any value...? JeckylHeckle
NEW 4/12/2007 2:58:46 PM
for 4 years we can depend on technical failures to ignite WTFRFH - particularly when those breaks are accompanied by bad fundamental developments

let's recap the new "market":

failed gap-up openings: excellent buying opportunities

Hot inflation numbers: tend to ignite huge bond rallies

Spikes in gasoline/oil: transports go nuts to the upside

Retail sales take it in the crotch: retail sector rallies 5%

Lending shuts down for 40% of homebuyers: Homebuilders rally 4%

and so on

And NO, it wasn't always this way

now, if you'll excuse me, I'm gonna go buy some RUT futures ahead of tomorrow's Zimbabwe Showcase Jamboree

RE: Do technical indicators have any value...? nobid
NEW 4/12/2007 4:26:25 PM
Anyone who claims it was always this way has very little experience watching the pig show.

In 30 years of watching equities and 20 years of watching futures what we are seeing now has no resemblance to anything I've seen before.

If tens of thousands of hours has taught me one thing...
It is different this time.
The lunacy machine was cranked past the red line post 911.

Please please no claims this is normal "market" price discovery.
Its nothing more than a rat infested pigpen run by mobsters who know the final score before the close each and every day.

MTG today, was another exhibit that can be added to the thousands of others.

RE: Do technical indicators have any value...? skeptick
NEW 4/12/2007 3:01:05 PM
IMO, for the most part, no. Because where the controlling financial authority is ever more vigilant to prevent a decline, the threat of a decline, then the hint of a decline must be addressed. Before the current regime, a decline...just happened. Now, even a hint of a decline is tended to with gusto. These days, when I look at a chart and every instinct I have is that a stock will roll over....it doesn't. It won't act that way. It acts confoundingly the opposite. And gets bought all day long.

And yet...there is hope.


RE: MRK skeptick
NEW 4/12/2007 3:20:16 PM
Wow...two astounding conflicting pieces of news on MRK.

Judge rules in a way that possibly kills 1K cases in TX.

FDA recos against approval of a new drug.


RE: Do technical indicators have any value...? boo boo bear
NEW 4/12/2007 3:16:39 PM
The question has to define the spectrum. The spectrum has many different lights, that project the one picture.

For example, seasonals as indicators provide a measure of spec interest supplying liquidity which fuels the stock market. How does one measure this? The Pi cycle? The coppock curve? How does one use these?

How is credit expansion/contraction defined, and how do you measure these? How do these relate to the yield curve? Which in turn relates to seasonals?

Who mentors you? That is, who out there do you know that has made a living at trading? Who can you talk to that knows more than you?

What cluster of momentum indicators are you familiar with?

What is the relationship of the Gold/Silver ratio to liquidity and credit expansion/contraction? How do you apply it? What are the seasonal implications of it?

Why is the monitoring of the 2 year note to 10 year note important? How is that used as an indicator? Along with the corporate bbb junk to treasury? What do they indicate?

Markets need credit expansion to continue up. How do you monitor that liquidity?

Pass the cheater bar, and pee on the weld is my favorite measure of volatility.

RE: Too much money out there JeckylHeckle
NEW 4/12/2007 3:58:28 PM
when I talk to the guys I know who are killing it, that is the take-away

curve inversions, housing bubble bursting, recession signs all over the place, 500 point down day out of nowhere....NOTHING stems the tide of money money money

it's as if somebody is simply printing 50 billion a day and depositing it into mutual funds

maybe somebody is

RE: Got a new one on ya... Yogibear101
NEW 4/12/2007 4:11:15 PM
...you may assume I use a cheater bar alot since I'm mechanically inclined. Actually, I seldom have use for one. There's a right way, a wrong way, and my way of doing things. Cheater bars will break a standard socket. Split it right down the side, sometimes you can get hurt when that happens. If you must use a cheater bar, get a hardened impact socket. They are thicker, and six point rather than 12. Enough of that lesson.

You may know from my posts about our Friday night drinking game of golf. One of the boys has a problem standing over the ball and moving his head before, during, and after the putt. Needless to say we took alot of his money. The movement and miss distance increased as the pot grew until it was noticable. He was trying too hard to get back to even.

Rather than see him give up on the game, it was time for a lesson. The typical way to show a golfer his head is moving is to tie a string around his head with a plastic ball on the end. This also fixes alignment between the eyes, ball, and putter. Unfortunatly, we didn't have any string, or plastic practice balls. The next best thing is 2" wide duct tape and a Hooters hot wing....stuck to the forehead.

If the wing swings, don't putt, you're trying to hard to get even.

The same thing works for trading. If you're not concentrating on where you're aiming, you'll lose alot of money. Everything must be in alignment, hold still, and don't jerk your head up to follow the ball or it won't make the cup. Takes practice and patience. If you are down, don't try to make the big plays in an attempt to get even. That's when the wing swings....and you miss.

RE: Got a new new one on ya' boo boo bear
NEW 4/12/2007 4:20:57 PM
Not to overwhelm you with my tecnical expertise, but let's put away the boys toys, and pull out the real men's toys (yep, bring along the measuring tape too).

I'm talking 3/4 inch drive, D-8 Cat dozer blade. You bring the half inch rachet/breaker bar. I'll bring the 7 foot inch and a half cheater bar.

Then, we'll get out the measuring tape and see who's got the parts.

And, as long as where talking technicals, Bourbon to lubricate moving parts.

RE: yeah, yeah, yeah..... Yogibear101
NEW 4/12/2007 4:48:43 PM
....I owned a CAT 943 for four years. I've still got a 350 ft. pound torque wrench, 3/4 drive.

One of these days you should try installing a 90,000 lbs. CNC machine tool. They come with these hollow leveling jacks that fit over 1"+ anchor bolts sunk 24" in concrete. In the center of the machine there's casting holes a midget couldn't fit in to screw these jacks, let alone a cheaterbar. The massive cast iron base is always warped & twisted from shipment. Yes, cast iron moves and sets.

Your first job is to rough level the base to within +/- 0.020" using precision calibrated bubble levels. It requires three open end wrenches; one for the jack screw, one for the locking nut, and one for the anchor bolt nut. The method is to find the highest point or corner of the base after all the jacks are retracted. You give that jack one turn up, tighten the anchor bolt nut, then the lock nut and observe levels.

The rest of the week you spend on your hands and knees jacking all the other points to match that highest point to the best of your ability. As the temperature changes, the cast iron moves at a different rate than the concrete. It is also settling and trying to warp the earth to it's post shipment state. Don't move the levels overnight or you'll have to start over. Once you're happy that things aren't moving, you can assemble the rest of the machine and fire it up.

After everything checks out, you've got to square the machine X, Y, and Z axis. Before you do that, it's a good idea to place an electronic level on the table and make fine level adjustments, which means another week on your hands and knees sometimes undoing what you did on rough level. Once it's actually making parts, come back in a month and do it all over again.

RE: I can easily top that...... boo boo bear
NEW 4/12/2007 5:44:14 PM
I lied.

But here's one for you. I worked towboats (tugs) for a while, on the Fraser River. We would take a forty foot tug, with 425 hp. and hook up to 6000 ton rock barges. The river runs an easy 6 knots on the ebb and flood. During spring melt freshet if you fall over, the drag is to great to pull yourself out.

Anyways, I'm a green deckhand. The skipper has one eye and forty years experience.

The Fraser splits in three, the south arm, the Slough, and the North Arm. The North Arm has a swing bridge for trains. And its a 50 degree turn off the main arm.

Well, I'm sweating. Ab, the skipper isn't. He's reading the sports.

I call him for the swing bridge. The current is on our tail. Which means your basically out of control. Ab just pulls the hammer (throttle) back, and basically drifted this 6000 ton rock barge thru the gap. With a few kicks here and there. He let the river do the work.

The stories I could tell about that guy.

Now, park that sucker. Another story. Didn't leave a scratch.

RE: Fraser tugs... PulpLogger
NEW 4/12/2007 6:11:51 PM
We spent a week camping this summer, at Porteau Cove up by Squamish, with 3 families in BC coast tug work. (A week of sun, believe it or not.)

I guess they mostly run log barges, down the coast. But said though in one slack time, a disabled vessel was on the radio for a long time seeking a tow from Hawaii - so needing the work off they went, in a 56 footer. Their big question was "You guys had to figure you were scraping the bottom of the barrel - weren't you a bit worried about what would show up?".

RE: HA... Yogibear101
NEW 4/12/2007 6:20:18 PM
....tight squeeze eh? I usually see the aftermath of screwups. And then pay for them. That's one reason I sold my site work corporation. You can go from a huge profit to a loss in seconds of operator inattention. We used to get into trouble for tracking mud on the streets from tractor tires. So I told my two tractor drivers to run them in high gear over in the field, you know, sling that mud off. I get in the truck and leave.

Five minutes later I get a phone call to come back. One tractor is on top of the other one, both were four wheel drive with front end loaders. The big one was on top with it's front axel laying on the ground. The little one was broke in half just behind the clutch housing. Both operators had been thrown clear because they didn't fasten seat belts, which was a rule violation. They only suffered some bruises which was good for me. Their story was the little one was slower, and turned in front of the big one.

Anyway, that little job we were doing came nowhere near paying for two 4 X 4 tractors getting fixed. And that's with me doing the damn labor. Lesson learned, don't give second chances when an employee screws up. These same two guys ended up costing me more money later, but that's another story.

RE: Good trading advice, Yogi definitionofbear
NEW 4/12/2007 4:59:54 PM
Many years ago I wondered why I consistently lost big sums of money over time.

It's easy to be right more often if you wait for the correct event, and avoid trying to get even when you exit out of an error. That's like your golf analogy.

After careful thought, it also occurred to me that I was trying for big scores. So I would quickly take many losses and less quickly close nice sized gains, which I thought would blossom into big scores. Often those gains shrunk because I was not afraid when I had a gain. It was fear that wisely drove me out of losses. So I learned to have the same fear when I had nice gains. I now take many small gains as though I had the same fear as a loss. I quit looking for the big score trades.

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