24 December 2006
BitTorrent Sites Compared
Ten Most Used BitTorrent Sites Compared: "I was rather surprised with these results, BTJunkie has nearly double the amount of torrents as the next leading competitor. The reason for such the dramatic increase is that they index both private and public trackers. Keep in mind that this benchmark is not very reliable because these sites all have different removal policies, making the quality of these numbers range"
14 December 2006
Gold's rise points to inflation
Gold's rise points to inflation: "The real annual inflation rate is closer to 8% than the 2% or 3% governments claim, a prominent U.S. economist said yesterday.
David Ranson, president of Boston-based H. C. Wainwright & Co. Economics Inc., defines inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of a national currency. He prefers that definition to flawed ones like the rising cost of living or increasing labour costs.
Official government-massaged measures such as the consumer price index (CPI) do not detect the onset of inflation as quickly as financial markets, he says. The latter indicate 'current inflation is much higher than policymakers realize and is still accelerating.'"
David Ranson, president of Boston-based H. C. Wainwright & Co. Economics Inc., defines inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of a national currency. He prefers that definition to flawed ones like the rising cost of living or increasing labour costs.
Official government-massaged measures such as the consumer price index (CPI) do not detect the onset of inflation as quickly as financial markets, he says. The latter indicate 'current inflation is much higher than policymakers realize and is still accelerating.'"
Eaton Vance manager: Markets poised for upset | Industry Summits | Reuters.com
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Financial markets are vulnerable to a significant correction in the next 12 months that might be triggered by an event in the derivatives markets, a well-known municipal bond manager said on Tuesday.
'I will be very surprised if we don't get an accident in the next months,' Thomas Metzold, who invests roughly $4.5 billion in the Eaton Vance National Municipals Fund, told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
'Whether it is in the credit default swap market or a leveraged buyout scenario, there is going to be a major default and all this liquidity that is out there can dry up pretty quickly,' Metzold said.
Looking back to 1998 when hedge fund Long Term Capital Management collapsed, Metzold said the biggest problem was that LTCM had so much exposure to counterparties that none of them knew how much the others had. 'And it all came tumbling,' he said."
'I will be very surprised if we don't get an accident in the next months,' Thomas Metzold, who invests roughly $4.5 billion in the Eaton Vance National Municipals Fund, told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
'Whether it is in the credit default swap market or a leveraged buyout scenario, there is going to be a major default and all this liquidity that is out there can dry up pretty quickly,' Metzold said.
Looking back to 1998 when hedge fund Long Term Capital Management collapsed, Metzold said the biggest problem was that LTCM had so much exposure to counterparties that none of them knew how much the others had. 'And it all came tumbling,' he said."
10 December 2006
A Brief, Superficial, and Arbitrary History of Property-Price Collapses
PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "The Anderson Forecast team at UCLA might restore one’s hope that academic economists fulfill a productive function. Having disparaged the California housing boom through its ascent, a springtime presentation by one of its economists predicted the swoon that has come to pass. Alas, he stumbled. Asked if a real estate crash was in store, he reverted to form: Southern California is in no way comparable to such one-industry towns as Houston, and besides, California had never suffered a real estate meltdown. On the first point, with 2% of adults in California now proudly waving real estate licenses to sell, houses to California today may be as dominant a force as oil to Houston in the 1980s. On the second point, one of the worst real estate debacles in the history of the United States occurred on the ground where he stood."
1 December 2006
The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction! | Dr. Marc Faber
The Dow Jones all time high and the coming correction! | Dr. Marc Faber: "In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. "
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. In short a combination of factors that has usually led to a sharp correction (1987) or a serious bear market (1973/74)). And whereas I think that stock markets could still make a new high into early next year, the majority of equities may already have peaked out.
As a contrarian, I would therefore now rather be short the S&P 500 than maintain long positions. The expected Fed fund rate cuts have probably already been largely discounted by the stock market. "
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