Cheney, Visiting Kazakhstan, Wades Into Energy Battle - New York Times

Cheney, Visiting Kazakhstan, Wades Into Energy Battle - New York Times: "Mr. Cheney's visit to Kazakhstan, on Russia's southern rim, highlighted the balancing of United States interests, trying to counter Russian dominance in energy matters by cozying up to states like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan that have spotty human rights records and limited democracy — and plenty of oil.
'The United States is trying to strike a difficult balance,' said Tanya Kostello, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a New York risk consultancy. 'It is trying to encourage the regime in Kazakhstan to move toward democracy while maintaining the economic ties.'
The Kazakh president, Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, won a third six-year term in December 2005, with 91 percent of the vote in an election that international observers said was flawed. Two opposition politicians have been murdered in six months, raising the specter of instability"

Buffett sceptical about soft landing for dollar - Sold his Silver

Buffett sceptical about soft landing for dollar - Financial Times - MSNBC.com: "Warren Buffett's negative view of the dollar has strengthened as US current account and fiscal deficits have continued growing, Mr Buffett said on Saturday.
The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway told 24,000 shareholders gathered in Omaha, Nebraska for the company's annual shareholders' meeting that he expected the dollar to weaken over time, and he expressed scepticism that the 'soft landing' predicted by some economists would come about." Buffett noted

Rumsfeld Didn't Lie, But He Should Still Go

Early Warning by William M. Arkin - washingtonpost.com: "Rumsfeld Didn't Lie, But He Should Still Go
Anyone who has ever been in a relationship or taken Psych 101 knows that accusing someone of lying is unlikely to unleash truth-telling. And more important, it exposes the hand, and the conclusion, of the questioner.

Yesterday, protestors repeatedly interrupted the Defense Secretary during a speech at the Southern Center for International Studies, accusing Rumsfeld of 'lying' to the American people.

No doubt used to traveling in a limousine with bodyguards, going to the right parties, filling his time with official functions and hanging out with the troops, did Donald Rumsfeld leave the lecture hall in Atlanta yesterday and say to his aide 'don't ever f***n let that happen again' or did he chuckle and say 'God Bless America.?'

The incidents culminated with an exchange between the Secretary of Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst -- Rumsfeld to his credit, told the organizers to let McGovern speak -- in which McGovern managed to successfully quote the Secretary back to himself saying things he wished he never said.

But did the Secretary lie? Did he know some truth and intentionally tell the American people the opposite to manipulate them? I don't think so.
I don't want anyone to accuse me of cherry picking the transcript of yesterday's confrontation. Here is Editor and Publisher's version, Voice of America, and NewsBusters transcript, as well as the transcript of the three network's evening news shows last night.

'Why did you lie to get us into a war?' Ray McGovern asked.

'Well, first of all, I haven't lied. I did not lie then,' Rumsfeld answered.
McGovern pressed about pre-war statements regarding we"

John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt: Storm Over "the Israel Lobby"

John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt: Storm Over "the Israel Lobby": "Several writers chide us for making mono-causal arguments, accusing us of saying that Israel alone is responsible for anti-Americanism in the Arab and Islamic world (as one letter puts it, anti-Americanism 'would exist if Israel was not there') or suggesting that the lobby bears sole responsibility for the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq. But that is not what we said. We emphasised that US support for Israeli policy in the Occupied Territories is a powerful source of anti-Americanism, the conclusion reached in several scholarly studies and US government commissions (including the 9/11 Commission). But we also pointed out that support for Israel is hardly the only reason America's standing in the Middle East is so low. Similarly, we clearly stated that Osama bin Laden had other grievances against the United States besides the Palestinian issue, but as the 9/11 Commission documents, this matter was a major concern for him. We also explicitly stated that the lobby, by itself, could not convince either the Clinton or the Bush administration to invade Iraq. Nevertheless, there is abundant evidence that the neo-conservatives and other groups within the lobby played a central role in making the case for war.
At least two of the letters complain that we 'catalogue Israel's moral flaws', while paying little attention to the shortcomings of other states. We focused on Israeli behaviour, not because we have any animus towards Israel, but because the United States gives it such high levels of material and diplomatic support. Our aim was to determine whether Israel merits this special treatment either because it is a unique strategic asset or because it behaves better than other countries do. We argued that neither argument is convincing: Israel's strategic value has declined sinc"

Hookers for Porter??

Firedoglake - Firedoglake weblog » Hookers: "Color me confused. Everyone on TV seems to be buying the line that the Goss resignation has been planned for weeks. No natural curiosity about the fact that it takes effect immediately, or that there is no replacement, or that he had a meeting scheduled this afternoon he didn’t show up for. Not to mention the fact that as Professor Foland pointed out in the comments, the White House would’ve probably sacrificed its collective left nut to avoid stepping on a drunk Kennedy story.
But has the entire press corps turned into such a pile of humorless prudes that they can’t connect the dots in the Brent Wilkes hooker scandal? "

Life, but not not as we know it

Independent Online Edition > Environment: "Zero emissions, village-style car-free neighbourhoods - and no landfill. A new settlement on the Yangtze will show the world that China wants to help save the planet after all. By Meg Carter"

Rumsfeld Called Out On Lies

Think Progress » Transcript: Rumsfeld Called Out On Lies About WMD: "QUESTION: So I would like to ask you to be up front with the American people, why did you lie to get us into a war that was not necessary, that has caused these kinds of casualties? why?
RUMSFELD: Well, first of all, I haven’t lied. I did not lie then. Colin Powell didn’t lie. He spent weeks and weeks with the Central Intelligence Agency people and prepared a presentation that I know he believed was accurate, and he presented that to the United Nations. the president spent weeks and weeks with the central intelligence people and he went to the american people and made a presentation. i’m not in the intelligence business. they gave the world their honest opinion. it appears that there were not weapons of mass destruction there.
QUESTION: You said you knew where they were.
RUMSFELD: I did not. I said I knew where suspect sites were and –
QUESTION: You said you knew where they were Tikrit, Baghdad, northeast, south, west of there. Those are your words.
RUMSFELD: My words — my words were that — no, no, wait a minute, wait a minute. Let him stay one second. Just a second.
QUESTION: This is America.
RUMSFELD: You’re getting plenty of play, sir.
QUESTION: I’d just like an honest answer.
RUMSFELD: I’m giving it to you.
QUESTION: Well we’re talking about lies and your allegation there was bulletproof evidence of ties between al Qaeda and Iraq.
RUMSFELD: Zarqawi was in Baghdad during the prewar period. That is a fact.
QUESTION: Zarqawi? He was in the north of Iraq in a place where Saddam Hussein had no rule. That’s also…
RUMSFELD: He was also in Baghdad.
QUESTION: Yes, when he needed to go to the hospital."

Would you like Ketchup with that Hat?

Safe Haven | Would you like Ketchup with that Hat?: "The fact that this bull market has basically proceeded in utter obscurity for six years, with recent price rises causing many to cry 'bubble' or 'blow-off,' provides further evidence of just how much further this bull has to run. As an example, one self-professed metal's expert, who has urged caution since late 2004, was so convinced that silver's recent rise constituted a speculative 'blow-off' that he publicly promised to 'eat his hat' were that not the case. In addition, in the aftermath of silver's sharp one-day drop he subsequently advised investors to sell declaring that a significant correction in both gold and silver had begun. In retrospect the correction ended before the ink on his quotation marks even had a chance to dry.
As a reminder of just how large bubbles can grow before popping, during the 1990s the NASDQ rose from 300 to 5,000. If the NASDAQ could do it why can't gold? Sure gold does not pay any dividends, but than neither did the NASQAQ. Plus during the entire NASDAQ rally new shares of stock were constantly being issued, either as a result of IPOs, secondary offerings and option grants. However, the growth in the supply of gold and silver will be far more constrained, creating the potential for far greater appreciation.
It seems fitting that on the first day of trading for the silver ETF, shares of Microsoft, once the quintessential 'new era' stock, plunged by 11%. Trading as high as $60 per share in December of 1999, Microsoft shares now trade below $24. During that same time period the price of gold has risen from $290 to $680. Imagine if one had survived typical investors on New Year's Eve 1999, asking each to predict which would perform better in the first decade of the new millennium, Microsoft or gold. Do you think even one in one hundred would"

Physical copper demand and supply developments both bullish: BME - Metals News - Metals Place

Physical copper demand and supply developments both bullish: BME - Metals News - Metals Place: "A European physical market copper demand boom, which started in Belgium in February and continued in to Germany, Italy and Scandinavia, have seen spot premiums for cathode soar from $100/mt [plus LME] in February to $140/mt in March then into the $150-200/mt range in April, Bloomsbury Minerals Economics said in its Copper Briefing this week. These numbers were in line with those discovered in Platts' regular survey of the market this week, which put the Grade A CIF Rotterdam premium at $140-160/mt plus LME this week, even though some offers were still heard in the $150-200/mt range and one trader reported deals done at $125-130/mt CIF any European location plus LME.
BME further added that in March, premiums were sufficient for merchants to begin shipping out of the LME's Singapore warehouses to Europe and prices responded very vigorously to the warrant cancellations. The analyst group also noted the continued supply disruptions, with the most notable the strike at La Caridad in Mexico, while in Chile, a strike looms at Lomas Bayas.
In a snapshot of the concentrate market, BME also reported that there were shortages of custom concentrates and spot TC/RCs had fallen by 30% in a month to the $70-75/dry mt and 7.0-7.5 cents/lb range. 'Smelter production in China has already fallen in consequence,' he said. At a briefing Thursday, Platts reported that John Crofts, BHP Billiton's base metals marketing director, said TC/RCs were declining rapidly: 'We sold a parcel in the market last week at below $60/mt and 6.0 cents/lb-that's reflective of how quickly the market has fallen.' Crofts said there was potential for the deficit to be sufficiently sustained such that 'smelter capacity rationalization occurs.'"

Driven by uncertainty, gold makes its move

AFX News Ltd. London : Financial News Products: "Sometimes known as an alternative currency, the precious metal has traditionally offered a means through which investors can offset financial losses or potential losses or hedge against inflation.

With the dollar recently trading at a one-year low against the euro and a seven-month low against Japan's yen and experts betting on further weakness in the greenback, gold has climbed more than $150 an ounce year to date.

'The only one who doesn't know the U.S. dollar is dead is the U.S. dollar,' said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

And 'as the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies is magnified, gold will start attracting even more interest from individuals that are seeking an alternate 'currency',' said Emanuel Balarie, a senior market strategist at Wisdom Financial.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that the U.S. central bank may pause its interest rate-increase cycle, adding to the misery of the dollar, and global concerns over Iran's nuclear research has sparked interest alternative investments.

Now there are 'trillions of dollars floating around and as people flee paper money (dollars), gold and silver money become attractive competitors,' said Peter Spina, a chief investment strategist at GoldSeek.com.

One could say, 'gold IS money,' he said.

Indeed, 'while paper money is a liability with no intrinsic value, gold has -- in all situations,' said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com.

'To have a stockpile of gold means to have a measure of financial security no matter where one is on this earth, and this will hold true no matter what price oil goes to or how high global uncertainty rises and confidence"

From Sea To Shining Sea (Of Liquidity)

Market Observations: "As excess liquidity engenders rolling thunder in its price influence on asset classes over time, this can result in both virtuous cycle and vicious cycle consequences for the real economy. We've lived through the virtuous part of the cycle over the last decade with equities and real estate. Both asset class price accelerations were net positives to the consumption driven US economy. The question of course now being, what alternatives do the Fed and global central bankers have at this point? If they slow down liquidity generation in the hopes of quelling spiraling commodity prices, what fallout occurs primarily on a highly levered US economy, and in turn a global economy still very dependent on excessive levered US consumption? Has especially the Fed simply painted itself into an inflate at all costs corner with literally no other choices? Its policy flexibility vastly diminished relative to historical precedent? Damned if it does and damned if it doesn't, so to speak? The Fed has essentially allowed the financial sector servant to become its master in ever increasing fashion over the prior decades. And its current lack of choices seems testimony to its newly found role as terrified servant. At least for now, and whether the Fed is willing to admit this or not, it has become the servant to the hedge fund managers, the prop desk traders, the structured finance masters of the universe, etc. Under this set of circumstances, our best near term investment returns lie where these aforementioned allocators choose to position the Fed liquidity largesse at any point in time. And that's currently in the hard asset complex. Simple enough? Until these forces or dynamics change, we need to stay long energy, long equities benefiting from higher commodity prices, in short duration fixed income if at all, as well as long precious metals. Corrections w"

Paul Krugman: Our Sick Society

Economist's View: Paul Krugman: Our Sick Society: "Paul Krugman stays with the topic of his last column, our health care system. In this column, he wonders why being American appears to be bad for your health:
Our Sick Society, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Is being an American bad for your health? That's the apparent implication of a study just published in The Journal of the American Medical Association.
It's not news that something is very wrong with the state of America's health. ... But it isn't clear exactly what causes this stunningly poor performance. How much of America's poor health is the result of our failure, unique among wealthy nations, to guarantee health insurance to all? How much is the result of racial and class divisions? How much is the result of other aspects of the American way of life?
The new study ... doesn't resolve all of these questions. Yet it offers strong evidence that there's something about American society that makes us sicker than we should be.
The authors of the study compared the prevalence of such diseases as diabetes and hypertension in Americans 55 to 64 years old with ... a comparable group in England. Comparing us with the English isn't a choice designed to highlight American problems: Britain spends only about 40 percent as much per person on health care..., ... Moreover, England isn't noted either for healthy eating or for a healthy lifestyle.
Nonetheless, the study concludes that 'Americans are much sicker than the English.'... What's ... striking is that being American seems to damage your health regardless of your race and social class. That's not to say that class is irrelevant. ... In fact, there's a strong correlation within each country between wealth and health. But Americans are so much sicker that the richest thi"

Mish on US Houses -- It's Bad news!

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "U.S. mortgage applications rose for the first time in four weeks, led by a rebound in home purchase loans despite interest rates hitting their highest this year, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended April 28 increased 8.8 percent to 596.8 from the previous week's 548.6.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index rose 11.3 percent to 433.3 from the previous week's 389.4, which was its lowest level since November 2003.

However, the index -- considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales -- was below its year-ago level of 482.5.

'The jump in activity was a little surprising given that mortgage rates have been rising, but on a week-to-week basis the index can be volatile,' said David Sloan, senior economist at 4CAST Ltd. in New York. 'Higher rates will eventually send the index lower.'

I thought the jump in activity was a little surprising as well, although as Sloan says the 'index can be volatile'. I asked Mike Morgan at MorganFlorida if he could step outside Florida and comment on the numbers. Here was his reply:

A year ago most speculators did not have to close on homes. They could simply flip their contracts prior to closing. No need to apply for a mortgage. That was shut down starting about a year ago. So we actually have a double counting of mortgage applications being reported now. The flippers that never had to get a mortgage before now have to get a mortgage and close, even if they are flipping the property the same day and the new buyer has to get a mortgage. So not only are mortgage applications not realistically up, but they are substantially down. The Fed and MBA is double counting mortgage apps for those flippers that only ne"

Prechter Rebuts - Silver Substantiates

Yelnick: "Prechter launched the defense of his analysis today in the May EWT, issued weeks early. Last November, he thought the uptrend might last as long as May 6, and reiterates that prediction: the top should occur within two weeks +/- of May 6, or from now to May 19. He bases this on the large triangle which ended on Oct13 at Dow10200. Triangles are the penultimate wave, meaning one more wave up was expected. That wave is now ending, and should not go much higher over the next four weeks. Those of you who are quick to criticize his prior premature top-illations should get a copy and study this issue of EWT. Or, wait until May 19.
His reputation might be a tad less tarnished after calling to the moment the top in silver (if it holds). After a parabolic rise, it dropped 21% in two trading days. A bit of a crash, that. The STU reports that silver bullishness was an astounding 98% Wednesday, the day before the fall, which might be a record extreme for any market. A bundle of a contrary indicator, that. And Prechter notes that he has never seen an immediate recovery after a sharp drop like this from a parabolic rise. So a shorter term check for you Prechter critics is to see if silver recovers over the next few days.
Volatility should precede a change of trend. We saw currencies move sharply over the last few weeks (Icelandic Krona, NZ$). We may now see commodities make sharp moves down after parabolic rises - watch copper, sugar, gold and the biggee, oil. Stocks may follow. The Greenspan Indian Summer has caused all major markets to walk up in lockstep. They may walk off the cliff together, too. "

Could Global Warming Be Worse Than You Think?: BLOG: SciAm Observations

Could Global Warming Be Worse Than You Think?: BLOG: SciAm Observations: "One of the questions that came up in the earlier global warming thread was whether climate models have been tested against historical data. As I collect my thoughts on this issue, I wanted to share with you one observation. Climatologists who think global warming is serious and human-driven actually agree with skeptics who say that models have not been adequately tested. But whereas the skeptics think that the models overstate the threat, the mainstream researchers think they could understate it.
Their concern stems from one simple fact: the projected increase in temperature over the coming decades would take us out of the range encountered in the natural ice-age cycle of recent geologic history. It could 'imply changes that constitute practically a different planet,' climate scientist Jim Hansen told the Washington Post in January, and neither climate models nor humanity is up to it.
Update (April 20th): Models do a pretty good job at matching climate variations in the relatively recent past. A Nature paper today compares models to climate data for the period from 1270 to 1850. Volcanic eruptions, identified by the residue they left in ice cores, provided a particularly good set of test cases. Combining this comparison with one for the years from 1950 to 2000, the authors conclude that doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide would lead to a global temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees Celsius, with an error range from 1.5 and 6.2 degrees. The trouble, which I discuss below, is that the present warming is greater than anything observed over the past thousand years, so new effects might crop up that neither models nor recent history captures. "

BHP Says Disruptions to Copper Supply to Persist

Bloomberg.com: Latin America: "May 4 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, said disruptions to copper supply are expected to persist due to labor disputes, equipment and worker shortages.
There's likely to be a deficit of copper concentrate between 2006 and 2008, the Melbourne-based company said in slides posted on the Australian Stock Exchange.
Copper prices have surged to records, more than doubling from a year ago on the London Metal Exchange, on concern supply isn't growing fast enough to meet rising demand. Investors have poured money into commodities investment seeking better returns than stocks and bonds. Investments in commodities may reach more than $120 billion by 2008 from $80 billion last year, Barclays Plc estimated last month.
``Our current view of cathode and concentrate markets remain very positive,'' BHP said in the slides. ``The large net inflows of fund money have also added to price rises but it is difficult to predict when this will end.''
Workers at Grupo Mexico SA, the world's seventh-largest copper producer, are in the sixth week of strikes at the company's second-largest copper mine, La Caridad. Kazakhmys Plc yesterday said its production of finished copper fell 6.6 percent after temperatures fell below 40 degrees Celsius (minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit). "

Chalabi involved US, Iran policy making again, current and former intelligence officials say

The Raw Story | Chalabi involved US, Iran policy making again, current and former intelligence officials say: "Ahmed Chalabi, the man who helped provide cooked intelligence on Iraq to the Pentagon and the New York Times in the lead-up to war, is once again being engaged in US policy decisions, current and former intelligence officials say.
According to two former high level counterintelligence officials, one former senior counterterrorist official and another intelligence officer, Chalabi is acting as broker between the US Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, and Iranian officials in what are now stalled diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran.
'[Ahmed] Chalabi inserted himself and brought a proposal to Zel,' one intelligence source said.
Intelligence officials say the proposal that Chalabi delivered asked both the US and Iran to focus diplomatic talks on the Iraqi insurgency, leaving all discussion of Iran's nuclear program off the table. The talks, however, are now stalled.
It is unclear, however, who has tasked Chalabi to act as middleman or who he is representing in these attempts at negotiations.
'Either he is taking it upon himself or being asked to intervene,' one former senior counterintelligence official said. 'What we know is that Chalabi has approached the US Ambassador to Iraq with a request from what appears to be the Iranian leadership to engage in talks.'
Asked what is motivating Chalabi to attempt talks between Iran and the United States, another former intelligence official put it simply: 'He is close to Iran.'"

How Bad Is Inflation in Zimbabwe?

How Bad Is Inflation in Zimbabwe? - New York Times: "HARARE, Zimbabwe, April 25 — How bad is inflation in Zimbabwe? Well, consider this: at a supermarket near the center of this tatterdemalion capital, toilet paper costs $417.
Skip to next paragraph

Vanessa Vick for The New York Times
Ayina Musoni, 58, has taken in lodgers to help with expenses, but she can barely afford food for her family.
No, not per roll. Four hundred seventeen Zimbabwean dollars is the value of a single two-ply sheet. A roll costs $145,750 — in American currency, about 69 cents."

Japan should worry bond market more than China

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Recently, there was consternation over a report that a Chinese official had urged his government to trim its holdings of U.S. debt and to stop buying dollar bonds.
Many people fear that such a move could rattle our financial markets and send yields sharply higher.
Yet based on an analysis of Japanese investors' net purchases and sales of foreign bonds, it seems that we should probably be paying more attention to what that other large Asian nation is up to if we are really worried about where long term U.S. rates are headed.
Over the past five years, whenever we have seen a sharp decline in the 13-week cumulative total of Japanese net investment in medium and long-term foreign bonds, as reported by Japan's Ministry of Finance, it has been accompanied by a parallel rise in the 5-year U.S. treasury bond yield (among others).
Since December 30th, we have seen such a move, with a cumulative measure of net investment falling by 8.39 trillion yen, or more than $70 billion dollars. That suggests we could be due for even more of a slide in bond prices than we have seen already."

Fiat's Reprieve: Saving the System, 1979-1987

SavingtheSystem: "Reading the pro-gold submissions incorporated in the Report of the U.S. Gold Commission twenty-some years ago is a humbling exercise. A lot of those old commentaries could have been written today. They say just what gold bugs say now: our monetary system is doomed, and its end will be marked by a major monetary crisis. The concluding chapter of the Minority Report (Volume II, Annex A) put it thus:[1]
Should Congress not adopt the recommendations outlined above, we can expect core inflation rates to rise over the next decade, and at an accelerated rate – so that in ten years from now we can expect cheering in the media when the inflation rate falls below 50%. As inflation deepens and accelerates, inflationary expectations will intensify, and prices will begin to spurt ahead faster than the money supply. / It will be at that point that a fateful decision will be made – the same that was made by Rudolf Havenstein and the German Reichsbank in the early 1920’s: whether to stop or greatly slow down the inflation, or to yield to public outcries of a “shortage of money” or a “liquidity crunch” (as business called it in the mini-recession of 1966). / In the latter case, the central bank will promise business or the public that it will issue enough money to enable the money supply to “catch up” with prices. When that fateful event occurs, as it did in Germany in the early 1920’s, prices and money could spiral upward to infinity and it could cost $10 billion to buy a loaf of bread. America could experience the veritable holocaust of runaway inflation, a cataclysm which would make the Depression of the 1930’s – let alone an ordinary recession – seem like a tea party.
Ahem. To state the obvious, the gold bugs of a generation ago got it wrong"