End of US$ Global Reserve Currency

The heralded end to the Petro-Dollar defacto standard completes the loop, the vicious cycle that will work to destroy the USDollar. In a sense, the US$ had to face an end, its sunset guaranteed when Nixon defaulted on its redemption value. The United States served as custodian for the global reserve currency. Naturally, the most damage will be to the US as a consequence of its twilight, especially after the recent era of fraud & counterfeit. Few look back to that date in 1971 as prophetic for declaring the USDollar’s days as limited and finite. The world will continue to trade the US$ in future years, but it must stand on its own value, based upon its own merit, the result of balancing its supply & demand, from the integrity of its fundamentals. Some climax events have come, or at least are previewed on an unfortunate path. Never in my memory has USGovt leadership been so disrespected. Never has Wall Street been so culpable for financial ruin, yet still in power running the USGovt finance ministries. The global revolt against the United States has many sides, but the financial aspect is most profound. It is hardly even covered in the US press. The US citizens have little comprehension of the enormity of a lost global reserve currency, with all its privileges, abused for constructing financial engineering towers and funding foreign wars. The direct effects will be felt in higher costs and assured supply, including credit.

No need to enter details, but the nation with each passing year resembles even more a very large Third World nation. Empty foreclosed homes, empty shopping malls, millions of jobless, discouraged business formation, nationalized failed firms, vanishing Middle Class, trillion$ federal deficits, monetized debt, reduced liberties, selective elite law enforcement, syndicate stronghold, huge prison population, controlled press networks, distrust of leaders, aggressive military, these are the characteristics that most people agree are unsavory. But when one takes them as a cornucopeia table display, they are described as Third World. This article will be shorter than most, since the more complete analysis is provided for Hat Trick Letter members. We are not fooled by the banter, the propaganda. We have been preparing for the surge in gold & silver, the powerful erosion in the USDollar, the ruin of the banks, the universal bust in bonds, the insolvency of the homeowners, and the army of jobless. Personal fortunes have by and large not been ruined. Some have thrived.



COMPLETED LOOP: FINANCIAL & COMMERCIAL

The swirling motion of the above loop is powerful. With the crude oil sales no longer taking US$ payments, the loop is completed. The financial engine in the Dollar Carry Trade now will have a commercial engine to further its momentum, to add power to the cycle, and force powerful lethal feedback reactions. Only when the financial and commercial sides fit like two giant interlocking pieces does the power take hold, much like a toilet assembled. The Fisk report on a 2018 timeframe for the phase out of US$ petro sales is more politically massaged information. The timetable will be just a couple years, doubtful more. The reactions from systems will force the timing to be much sooner, out of desire, out of necessity, due to broken systems that accelerate the breakdown process due to the announcement itself in feedback loops. By the way, the swirling motion in the vicious loop should remind people of a toilet being flushed. In the Northern Hemisphere, the motion is clockwise. Thus my representation, since my entire life has been spent roaming the north. To people reading from the Southern Hemisphere, imagine the elements of the graph in mirror image format. Thanks for the cooperation.

REDUCED US$ DEMAND IN FOREIGN BANKS

Entire foreign banking systems have been constructed with USTreasury Bonds serving as important assets in their foundations. The requirement was clear by virtue of payment for crude oil for Saudi and other OPEC nation crude oil. The Petro-Dollar standard required nations to prepare for payment in US$ terms, and thus build systems to make those payments. The banks act like giant ATM machines to dispense USDollars for oil payments. Many did so reluctantly. The purchase of crude oil is without doubt the largest and most important economic commodity purchased, next to food supply. The demand for USDollars will be sharply reduced in the future. Payment for crude oil in IMF basket terms will reduce the need for holding all those USTreasurys. Banking systems will change their structural makeup. They will adapt to other non-US$ swap facilities that aid in trade. One should be on the lookout for outright refusal to accept USDollars, the next step. The toxic bonds could easily lead to perception of USTBonds being toxic as well.

FOREIGN RESERVES DIVERSIFICATION

Nations have been struggling to diversify their FOREX reserves for the last few years. They react to the fundamental problems of the USEconomy, the USGovt deficits, the US Bank insolvency, the US Home insolvency, the dismissal of US Industry, and the trend toward nationalization. The foreign managers of finance suddenly awakened in 2005 to find they had accumulated a surfeit of bonds in the form of USTBonds, USAgency Mortgage Bonds, and US Bank Corporate Bonds, with no semblance of balance in their portfolios. Add to their reserves the Sovereign Wealth Funds, and the magnitude of the problem was deemed unreasonable, unwise, and unacceptable, in need of change. So foreign finance accounts have been buying more EuroBonds, even Chinese Govt Bonds, more Gold, more commodity stockpiles, and more foreign assets that assure commodity supply. China leads the way in setting the standard in diversification practices.

USFED STUCK AT 0%

The USFed does the most talking about an end to its free money, also known as monetary easing. But the United States will be the last to raise interest rates, stuck without an Exit Strategy. Australia did not talk about it at all, but recently raised its rates by 25 basis points. Generally speaking, those who do too much speaking do too little doing. The crippled nature of the conditions in the United States dictate continued 0% easy money. The powerful players in the Dollar Carry Trade will ensure that the free money parade does not stop. It is self-sustaining. They will even influence the USFed not to hike rates. Furthermore, the next round of bank losses from commercial mortgages and prime Option ARMortgages will deliver big blows. Some astute analysts are already estimating the magnitude of the next round of bank losses. Any hike in interest rates would not only add costs to borrowers across the USEconomy, but add costs to the USGovt. They are, by the way, producing trillion$ deficits.

GROWING USGOVT DEFICITS

The endless series of stimulus for a moribund USEconomy, reduced payroll taxes collected as federal revenue, nationalized Black Hole costs (Fannie Mae, AIG, GM), current health care costs (Medicare), hidden banker welfare (TARP funds one pearl on a string), sacred military budget (contractor largesse & syndicate benefit), and stupid pork projects will continue to churn out gigantic mind-numbing federal deficits. The only reduction seen is in forecasts by official agencies, which bear little reflection to reality. The permanence of trillion$ deficits will be clear in another year. Removed stimulus, removed props, removed monthly special programs, these steps will cause a return to deteriorated conditions. The Clunker Bank and Clunker Home programs are well along.

USTBOND MONETIZATION

The USTreasury auctions are the biggest congame since the Wall Street mortgage bond sales, whose monetization eclipses the Weimar machine. The primary bond dealers are required to bid on USTreasurys that come to auction. They are reimbursed in Permanent Open Market Operations by the USFed within a week or so. The US press does not notice or does not report or is told to look the other way. The foreign central banks turn in their USAgency Mortgage Bond to the USFed, which with newly printed money buys the USTreasurys offered. These central banks use the sale proceeds and additional funds drawn from the Dollar Swap Facility to bid on USTreasurys that come to auction. The US press does not notice or does not report or is told to look the other way. The USGovt continually promises the foreign creditors that no monetization of debt will take place. They lie. The true victims are confidence and trust, essential to any fiat currency.

LOST CONFIDENCE IN USDOLLAR

Confidence is lost, never to return. It takes years to build confidence and trust, but only a few moments or days to lose it. Actions and developments in the last several years have contributed to a powerful and deep loss of confidence. In my view the mortgage bond fraud export combined with the Iraq & Afghan Wars to shatter respect, trust, and confidence. Nowadays, monetization worsens the lost faith as a crowning blow. Bully tactics by the US & UK for years added constant strain, producing resentment. The result is less support for the USDollar, and almost no cooperation for US$ and USTBond support programs outside the central bank franchise system.

A KEY IS THE JAPANESE YEN

As the Yen Carry Trade enters its final phase in wind-down, the Dollar Carry Trade will accelerate. Imagine, the global reserve currency in the US$ is used to fund a carry trade, from a Japanese handoff !!! The world has been turned upside down in its financial axis. No doubt about it. We live in a bond-driven world. National finances matter little compared to the interest rate yield offered to financial speculators, whose efforts are amplified by leverage. Take the Japanese, for example. Their trade surplus endured for 30 years. In the last year it vanished. Yet the Japanese Yen is rising versus the USDollar. The carry trade is seeing a grand handoff. The Dollar Carry Trade is a bond-driven phenomenon once again. Its power might be best seen in the Yen currency valuation, in its surprising rise. The Yen is analyzed in the October Hat Trick Letter report. The invitation for the USMilitary to depart Okinawa has some effect. The bond arbitrage has much more. The Japanese finance firms receive little attention. They are experts at running and exploiting the carry trades. They are switching programs.

If you believe all is well in Japan and Tokyo support will continue, then you miss the ‘Lost Lackey Effect’ from the last year. The Saudis will not carry the US bags any longer. The Arab squires will carry bags with Kremlin markings. The Japanese will not carry the US bags any longer. The Toyko squires will carry bags with Beijing markings. The chief strategist at a major Japanese bank Sumitomo today warned that the US$ might fall to 50 yen this year. That would be a 45% decline. Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo expects the USEconomy to suffer a second sudden recession. He said, “The US economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger. The dollar’s fall will not stop until there is change to the global currency system.” The strong warnings reflect the growing rift between Japan and the USA. The outcome of recent elections in Japan changed the entire bilateral landscape. The pro-American LDP party was ousted, a major new piece to the ongoing Paradigm Shift.

JUST THE BEGINNING FOR GOLD & SILVER

Gold reached 1060 this week, and silver touched 18. This is just the beginning. The pullbacks like today should be exploited to purchase more at discount. Purchases of gold at the London exchanges are being interfered with, due to basic problems of not having sufficient gold bullion to satisfy delivery demand, otherwise known as DEFAULT. Reports arrived privately cite the LBMA officials offering 25% more than contract value if high volume gold futures contracts are settled in cash. Two different central banks are scrambling to locate gold for the contracts, but much of it is substandard bullion with under 90% purity. Sounds like a default is right around the corner, and some members have their nether stones caught in a vise. CLEAR EVIDENCE SCREAMS OF GOLD HAVING A $1300 CURRENT PRICE.
The next target for gold is 1130, with a midterm target of 1300.
The next target for silver is 19 with a midterm target of 26.

The Bank of England news today was comical. The central bank is the most disrespected on the planet, for inconsistency, wavering, desperation, and cluelessness. Their table pounding in desperate confusion caused a big 200-pt rally in the Pound Sterling versus the Euro. The chief loser currencies in the current phase will be the USDollar and British Pound Sterling. They are both used toilet paper, long spent in wiping an empire’s dirt.

Copyright © 2009 Jim Willie, CB
Editorial Archive

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials.

Jim Willie CB is the editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER” Use the below link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise like a cantilever during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by heretical central bankers and charlatan economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. A tad of relevant geopolitics is covered as well. Articles in this series are promotional, an unabashed gesture to induce readers to subscribe.



http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1015.html

US dollar in danger of being funny money

ELEANOR HALL: To economic optimism in the US now and the bulls on Wall Street are running today, with the Dow breaking though the 10,000 mark for the first time in a year.

But the fortunes of the US dollar, the world's reserve currency for 50 years, are heading in the opposite direction.

Investors are continuing to flock to the safety of gold which is posting record highs on a daily basis.

So can the greenback survive as the world's reserve currency?

From Washington John Shovelan reports.

JOHN SHOVELAN: The mantra of successive US governments since the mid '90s and a song continued by the Obama administration is that a strong dollar is in the national interest. But fewer investors are buying it or the dollar.

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) says central banks around the world hold about 62 per cent of their currency reserves in US dollars - the lowest on record.

Charles Goyette, author of The Dollar Meltdown, says investors won't hold a currency that is continually shrinking and isn't dependable.

CHARLES GOYETTE: The gold price is signalling to us the collapse of the dollar reserve standard, the dollar exchange standard. It's going on right now and we're in for a very tough period ahead.

JOHN SHOVELAN: Prospects for growth in the US economy are further undermining the dollar. In remarks seen as a signal that interest rates would stay at their all time lows, the US Federal Reserve's vice chairman Donald Kohn said a V-shaped economic recovery "is not the most likely outcome."

Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve governor and who co-authored a book with Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on inflation targets, says those arguing for an interest rate rise to support the US dollar will have a long wait. He says recovery in the US economy could take several years.

FREDERIC MISHKIN: The kind of recovery we should expect to have is in fact not going to be a super strong one and we're going to have a tremendous amount of slack in the economy for quite a number of years. And if there's still a lot of slack there's no reason to raise interest rates. In fact it would be a big mistake.

JOHN SHOVELAN: Interest rates aren't coming to the dollar's rescue and investors think the Obama administration is relaxed about the falling currency. It's helping exports and the nation's trade deficit.

The US dollar has weakened over the past eight years and some private investors worry the annual trillion dollar budget deficits over the next decade and trade deficits will drive that depreciation faster so there's been a hunt for alternatives.

But that, according to Mike O'Rourke of BTIG, the global trading firm, is a long way off.

MIKE O'ROURKE: There's not many viable alternatives to the dollar right now over the next several years. Europe is not in a better position than we are. Japan is not in a better position than we are. The UK is easing, their quantitative easing is just as aggressive as ours.

And then the only strong large economy is China and they're pegged to the dollar and they don't have free capital flows.

You need, you know, a structure, financial infrastructure, free flow of capital, rule of law and then a strong military to be an important currency in this world as a reserve. And the fact is we still have all those things. No-one else meets up with the United States on all those marks.

JOHN SHOVELAN: It's become obvious though that Americans can no longer take their dollar's reserve currency status for granted.

A former US deputy assistant treasury secretary and now head of Encima Global, David Malpass is quoted saying, "Money wants to go to where it can get a steady return in real money, not in funny money. And in many ways the dollar is becoming the funny money currency for the world."

John Shovelan in Washington for The World Today.

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2714958.htm

Official Speculation on lower silver prices ends abruptly

Stakes raised somewhat on a Gold correction, however.

Other Peoples Money ~A correction is due.

At the risk of getting ahead of myself prior to being able to confirm the turn, I am suggesting stock market action over the past week bears the distinct odor of a bull trap, with even informed technicians still waiting for a push to 50% retracements on the indexes. In this respect then, you should realize the context of such a bull trap would be profound in that we are talking about the March lows being tested and violated, meaning for example the S&P 500 (SPX) could be on its way down to test its namesake at 500 before this next sequence is all over. You will remember from previous discussions, and in framing context correctly here, it's possible we could be looking at a Supercycle Degree Affair lower in global stock markets directly ahead, implying 500 on the SPX would be an optimistic target for a low.

It will be important to watch what happens after quarter-end Wednesday, because if the funds cannot jam stocks higher for a window dressing related payday, we will have a good indication that at least the intermediate term direction has turned for stocks, where we will be looking to confirm this with the penetration of key supports in stock indices that will be discussed below. Further to this, and to continue framing what the future could hold correctly, I bring to your attention the latest undertakings from two market observers that appear timely in this regard, both sticking to their guns as deflationists moving forward from here. The first is from Doug Noland discussing Jim Grant's recent defection from the bear / deflationist camp. And the second is from Mish, who amongst other things also touches on Jim Grant's change of heart, characterizing it as a contrary indicator.

If you know me, it should come as no surprise I could not agree more in this regard. What's more, and as discussed at length previously in the full body of my work, although I am not a deflationist, or any variety of permanent 'flationist' for that matter, based on the evidence before us today I do think the 'deflationists' finally have it right. Moreover, and to continue drawing on the compelling case in this regard, one should take a few minutes to view this video by Steve Keen, the link for which I am also borrowing from Mish, who appears to have is ducks in the appropriate row as well. Here, Steve correctly points out that collectively the global population is past 'peak debt', and that although private debt and credit creation do not play into some people's definitions of money supply, anyway one wishes to count it, when we are contracting in this regard so will the economy at large, government stimulus or not.

Hold the presses. Apparently we have a landslide victory for Angela Merkel in the German national election, providing her with an opportunity to create a right of center coalition. This will undoubtedly be viewed as a very good excuse to rally the markets, so who knows, we may yet get that squeeze into month's end after all. Be that as it may, it will of course not matter in the larger scheme of things, as neither does the German economy have a meaningful impact globally, nor will it negate the trend towards deleveraging in the larger economy. And that's all that matters at the margin, which is the primary point in Steve Keen's presentation, attached above. In the meantime it does in fact appear will get a window dressing related jam job into month's end however, providing traders / investors with yet another opportunity to get short / lighten up on equities, which is a sentiment we recommend you take very seriously at this time.

Of course the bulls could give you a plethora of wrongheaded arguments on why such thinking is crazy, as crazy as the gibberish you hear on CNBC day in and day out as they continually promote the gaming of stocks higher at the behest of their corporate sponsors. Here, the better arguments would point to the inventories that need replacing, and the 'new normal' when it comes to perceiving largely worsening news. Less bad, history doesn't matter this time around - you name it, these bozos are never lacking for words - only conscience and common sense. Thankfully, this is the sentiment that's required to put an end to the games however, with the degree of the short squeeze this time around commensurate with the tops in stocks witnessed in 2000, and 2007. So again, be very careful moving forward from here because not many are, not even some veterans who should know better.

In this regard I find it surprising just how few market commentators and investors have it right in terms of the big picture considering just how critical the situation is, which is why I think an important top in stocks is in the making here. What's worse is those who do know, and have attempted to protect themselves by hedging or speculating on the short side, have had their heads handed to them and will likely not be back during what is traditionally a period of seasonal strength directly ahead, spelling potential trouble for equities. As you should know from reading these pages previously, that's the mechanism that keeps our faulty and fraudulent markets moving in directions the consensus is not expecting. This is the mechanism, when combined with generous liquidity, that keeps stocks going up when they should be going down until both the bulls and bears become exhausted, allowing for the whole shooting match to collapse at this point.

And that's where we are in my opinion, very closed to the point where both the bulls and bears become exhausted, marked by what is the annual period of seasonal strength in stocks, which should see a cessation of shorting / put buying, thus enabling our faulty and fraudulent (and seriously overbought) markets to fall. Or in other words, the bears will finally be exhausted, joining the bulls in the financially strapped department after getting creamed since March. That's what a good mania does - first it financially destroys the bulls, and then the bears within the wild reactions to the eventual crashes. In terms of important technical points in the indices to watch for, let's take a look at the same charts that we used a few weeks back because they tell us everything we need to know in terms of measuring / identifying the end to this reaction higher since March.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14725.htm

The economics of bad debts: can't pay, won't pay ~ Prof. Michael Hudson

This former Wall St financial analyst, now a distinguished research professor of economics, says debts that can't be paid won't be paid. He argues that propping up the creditors responsible for the GFC rather than the holders of the 'toxic' sub-prime debts is bad for business and a recipe for further economic disaster.

Download Listen

Around the traps... Rogers, Economics Nobel, Dollar down on "grotesque money-printing antics"

I remember when in 2002 Jim recommended copper over gold. He was dead right!

"The supply of everything continues to decline," he said, adding: "If the world economy recovers, commodities will do the best, because supply is being restricted. If the world economy does not recover, commodities will still be the best place to be, because governments are printing huge amounts of money." Rogers, an author whose books include “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist,” predicted the start of a global commodities rally in 1999. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials is up 36 percent from Jan. 4, 1999. Rogers said it’s hard for him to predict the timing of market moves.

Gold will surpass its inflation-adjusted all-time high of more than $2,300 an ounce, Rogers said. He said that the timing will depend on many factors, including global politics. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against political instability and to preserve assets.

Favored Materials

Agricultural commodities are among his favorites, because demand for food, including grain and sugar, is rising in countries such as India and China. Rogers said cotton may gain as farmers produce less fiber in favor of growing biofuel crops such as corn.

“I own some cotton,” Rogers said. “I own some sugar,” he said. “Sugar will go much, much higher over the course of the bull market.”


Now, all hail the return of political economy and therefore reality to economics....

Economics Nobel

Ostrom, in work that links the economy with the environment, has shown that informal groups can sometimes manage natural resources such as forests and lakes better than private companies or the government. Her doctorate is in political science rather than economics.

Williamson, who is professor emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley, is considered one of the founders of organizational economics -- the study of how institutions are created and developed and what impact they have on economic growth. In research that may apply to the financial crisis, he suggested that it is better to regulate large companies than to try to break them up or limit their size.

“Over the last three decades these seminal contributions have advanced economic governance research from the fringe to the forefront of scientific attention,” the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said today in Stockholm.

Ostrom and Williamson will share 10 million Swedish kronor ($1.4 million) in prize money.

“What you have here is a bow from the academy to those economists who study organization from the inside, and that’s an exciting, interesting field,” said Robert Solow, winner of the Nobel Economics Prize in 1987 and professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Large Companies

Williamson found that large corporations exist primarily because they are efficient and benefit owners, workers, suppliers and customers, the academy said. They can abuse their power and may need to be regulated.

“You could and should interpret Ollie Williamson’s work as a way of getting into the question of how the large investment banks operate and how that led to what looks in retrospect to be very stupid and risky behavior,” Solow said

Dollar stressed..
Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That’s the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a4x9dIJsPn4U


There are broader reasons for the dollar's demise – not least that the sun is now setting on its reserve currency status, as the world's commercial centre of gravity shifts towards the emerging giants of the East. That's a much longer-term trend, though. In the here and now, the dollar is tumbling due to America's ultra-low interest rates, monetary incontinence and fiscal irresponsibility.

The decline became so steep last week that central banks in Asia – including China – spent their own reserves propping up the US currency, so worried were they about the impact of the falling dollar on their all-important exports. Future historians will shake their heads in disbelief.

Keep in mind, though, that the arguments pointing to a weaker dollar also apply to the pound – but even more so. Last week sterling hit a trade-weighted five-month low. Over the last year, the pound has, well, been pounded – losing significant ground against the yen and euro, as well as the ailing dollar.

Like the US, Britain has indulged in grotesque money-printing antics. The two countries might be dubbed the QE2. But the Bank of England's printing presses really have been in overdrive, with the UK's monetary base now equal to almost a fifth of GDP, up a head-spinning 169pc in a single year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/6292787/Benign-currency-neglect-could-spell-real-danger-for-US-economy.html

Why should the people who did it right be penalized for those that did it wrong?

From the Huff Po, Bill Moyes of PBS. Hattip to Heritage Ray.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/a-moment-of-truth-with-bi_b_314797.html

BILL MOYERS: Let -- let's look at this story that just-- I just read from the Associated Press this week about how Treasury Secretary Geithner is on the phone several times a day with a select group of very powerful Wall Street bankers, especially Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs. He will talk to them when Members of Congress have to leave a message on the answering machine. And these are the bankers who helped bring on this calamity and who are now benefiting from it. What does that say to you?

MARCY KAPTUR: That says to me that-- Wall Street and Washington is a circuit. And because Mr. Geithner headed the New York Fed that that historic relationship, unfortunately, continues. And it gives them special access and special power to influence policy.

SIMON JOHNSON: Well, I think it really tells you how the-- the system works. The system is based on access and is based on-- on what-- on Wall Street shaping Washington's view of what's important. It's the people who are very close to Mr. Geithner before-- when he was the head of the New York Fed. Before he became Treasury Secretary. These people have unparalleled access. And in a crisis, when everything is up for grabs, you don't know what's going on, the people who-- who will take your phone calls, right, in government-- and people who are gonna be standing in the oval office, making the key decisions. That-- that's the-- that's the heart of the system. That's the-- the heart of how-- you get your agenda through, by changing their worldview.

MARCY KAPTUR: And they also move people. In other words, Mr. Geithner came from the New York Fed, he came from Wall Street, and he becomes Secretary of the Treasury. His-- his-- predecessor, Mr. Paulson, came from Goldman Sachs, and he becomes Secretary of Treasury. You can go back decades, and you will see that there's this-- revolving door between Wall Street and Washington. And I recently asked Chairman Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, "Let me ask you a question. Would you be willing to consider a reform where the Cleveland Fed would have equal power to the New York Fed, in terms of how the Fed is run?" And his answer was, "No."

BILL MOYERS: And why did you ask that question?

MARCY KAPTUR: Because I think we need to democratize the Fed. I think that my region of the country, which is suffering so heavily from these decisions that were made by Wall Street and Washington, we need to have voice. And our bankers, who didn't do the bad things. Our community bankers, who are having to pay higher fees-- shouldn't be treated this way. Why should the people who did it right be penalized for those that did it wrong?

Mourning Rally ~ The other gold rally message

The source of much of the dissonance the gold price rise engenders.

Rather, I think that in my search for meaning, the rallying Gold price signifies more monumental failures at multiple levels for society, in politics, for nations, for our individual and collective ability to measure our wants and desires with our means. So despite my skeptical exoskeleton about most things (financial innovation perhaps first and foremost), the aforementioned bothers me intensely, for I am, at heart, both an idealist, and a closet optimist about humanity, foolish as it may be, and perhaps as paradoxical as Cliff Asnsses' views on Healthcare. Sustained Gold rally lances this optimism, helps lay bare the falsity of the veneer of prosperity and the fragility of its lattice during these last two-and-a-half decades, revealing the financial pus inside. This is after-the-fact, market reactive stuff and comes as no surprise to a skeptic, but one must push this view from the minds eye to function day-to-day without self-inflicting wounds. And what be goldbugs culpability? They resemble anarchists: strongly motivated to be on the vanguard for a variety reasons, but ultimately selfish and probably mistaken for apocalyptic systemic implosion remains a tail event. In this view , gold remains "a trade", and not an end to itself. More irksome, a bet on Gold may be "right", but it - betting as it does upon the acceleration of pus manufacture, feels (to me) somehow uncivic-minded - a wasteful employment of intellectual energy that might be set upon making what is systemically and socially un-well, better. I do not hate them for this, but am, merely saddened that the sum of prior decisions taken (and not taken) have brought us here.

The rest

Dr Lacy Hunt on our economic fortunes

Lacy Hunt talks about the Australian and US economy. Dr Lacy Hunt, an internationally renowned economist with Hoisington Investment Management, joins Lateline to discuss Australia's apparent rebound from the financial crisis. video

Gold is still the go, no doubt about it..

It is our contention that this breakout is the real deal and the pathetic action of the US Dollar Index supports our view. Rather than rally, the American currency has embarked on another southbound journey and this is extremely bullish for gold. Furthermore, the recent zoom in silver and the precious metals mining stocks is additional evidence that this breakout is not a head fake. Figure 1 highlights the recent breakout in gold. As you will observe, gold's bull-market has been punctuated by lengthy consolidations and this is the third time gold has broken out towards the end of the third calendar quarter.


On the 5-year weekly chart for gold we can see that everything is now in place for a MAJOR RALLY in gold to commence. It has managed to hold the high ground for weeks following its upside breakout from a Triangle, and is repeatedly pushing at the resistance approaching its highs. Yesterday's action was strongly bullish. With all moving averages in bullish alignment, THIS RESISTANCE IS ABOUT TO FALL.



Charts and commentary Maund and Saxena

Robert Fisk reveals truth behind 'dollar demise' report

Robert Fisk gives a very credible interview regarding the background leading up to his story about the Arabs, Russians, and Chinese decision to reprice crude oil in a basket of currencies other than the USDollar. He also mentions Germany as being one of the participants. The Germans are the important transition design brain trust in the backgroud, like with their counsel for Dubai to demand gold bullion from corrupt London custodians, after Germany did the same to corrupt New York custodians.

Fisk starts a fire....

What all this tells you is that the world's markets simply do not believe the denials of the story that have been issued by several countries. Saying so may not suit those countries which have strong political relationships with the US to worry about, but it would be remarkable if talks about repricing oil had not taken place. Indeed, China, the prime mover in these talks, has already openly floated the idea of ending the dollar's reserve currency status, and has never made a secret of its views on the matter.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-prosser-chinas-push-for-power-is-irresistible-1798672.html

Gulf Arabs have begun planning – with China, Russia, Japan and France – to move from dollar dealings for oil to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean oil will no longer be priced in dollars. The revelation was met with public denials yesterday. The Saudi central bank governor, Muhammad al-Jasser, said: "The future is in God's hands. Today, the conditions are good for the arrangement we have." The Japanese Finance Minister, Hirohisa Fujii, said he "doesn't know anything about it".

Dennis Gartman, the US investment guru who writes the daily Gartman Letter, said that no one should be surprised to hear denials. "We are certain that spokespeople for every single nation will be brought to the fore to deny that any such meetings have occurred, that no such decisions have been made, that it is not in anyone's interest to have held such meetings or made such decisions," he told clients as The Independent story broke. "The market will care not a whit."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/dollar-tumbles-on-report-of-its-demise-1798713.html

Saudi Arabia's denials of any such ambitions were regarded by Arab bankers as a normal part of Gulf politics. The Saudis, of course, managed to deny that Iraq had invaded Kuwait in 1990 – even when Saddam Hussein's legions stood along the Saudi frontier, until the US broadcast the news of Iraq's aggression to the world.

Saudi bankers are well aware that in nine years' time – the current timeframe for a transition away from the dollar in oil trading to Japanese and Chinese currencies, the euro, gold and a possible new Gulf currency – China will have doubled its national income to $10trn (assuming a growth rate of 7 per cent), at which point the US might hold no more than 20 per cent of the world's gross income.

Such massive financial movements, encouraged by the de-dollarisation of oil, will have enormous political effects in the Middle East, especially if economic superpower rivalry between America and China comes to dominate the Arab world. Will American economic support for Israel remain as loyal in nine years' time if China and the Arabs are setting the pace in global financial markets? Indeed – perhaps with this in mind – some Israeli financiers have been expressing interest over the past two years in non-dollar Arab bank investments. Whenever a change of this magnitude takes place over a number of years, it has to be commenced in secrecy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-a-financial-revolution-with-profound-political-implications-1798712.html

Jim Willie takes up the story....

This is truly incredible news. The US will soon no longer be permitted to sell its indulgences. This is major Paradigm Shift material.

To say the Jackass was jazzed in the last few days would be a gross understatement. This is a lock for gold to hit $1500 within months, and $2000 within a year. This is a lock for silver to hit $30 within months, and some screaming figure within a year that cannot be fathomed right now, like $50. Be sure to see almost zero follow-up for this story in the crumbling US press networks, widely compromised, distrusted, and mocked after years of lapdog behavior to twist story after story in line with syndicate marketing plans designed to maximize their profits, minimize public wealth, and further the march to a police state.

A quick read is required of two articles by Robert Fisk. He touches at the surface on a great many relevant and salient points. This story and its vast consequences will be discussed and analyzed for a full year. This is the biggest story on the USDollar in decades, sure to further develop. This is the biggest financial story since Lehman Brothers was killed, since AIG was hidden under the USGovt roof, and since Fannie Mae fraud was shoved in the USGovt basement, one year ago. To say this is not orchestrated by China is professed ignorance. They warned the US not to monetize the federal debt. We did. They warned the US not to reappoint Bernanke as USFed Chairman. We did. Next is transformation with consequences. A new important alliance has formed, which cuts out the United States and Great Britain. The drift that comes is directed toward the Third World. The great majority cannot comprehend or envision such change. Give them time. The most visible changes will come with the value of Gold & Silver, and the demoted USDollar exchange rate. The other visible changes will be to the landscape of the United States and Great Britain and the arrival of foreigners. They will be called carpetbaggers, when in fact they are creditors in receivership. We welcomed their purchase of our vast rafts of debt.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1008.html

Silver News abounds....

[miningmx.com] -- With gold at last piercing a new high, investors may next turn their attention to silver, which now looks overdue for a rally even as it and other metals remain constrained by a halting global industrial recovery.

Often dubbed bullion's bridesmaid, silver is now trading at near its lowest ratio to gold in a year, slipping to around the equivalent of 59 units per ounce of gold, just above September's low and down more than a quarter from the peak in late 2008.

Signs are emerging of investors seeking an alternative to gold -- which hit a lifetime high of $1,048.20 an ounce on Wednesday, surpassing the previous record in March 2008 -- as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar.

India's HDFC Bank, a large seller of gold in the world's top consumer of the metal, is looking at offering silver bars for sale in some cities because of interest from investors, a bank executive said on Wednesday.

"If it does move higher, you'd expect silver to outperform. The last time gold hit its high, silver was trading at $20. It's got a lot of catching up to do," said Mark Hewlett, a commodity analyst at Cornhill Capital in London.

Silver was little changed at $17.44 on Wednesday, moving closer to a 13-month peak of $17.63 in the middle of September but nearly 19 percent below its its record high of $21.24 from March 17, 2008, the same time gold last peaked.

Unlike gold, investment into the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust, has flatlined for the past three months, while gold inflows have boosted ETF holdings to near record highs. Silver holdings were unchanged at 8,594.22 tonnes.

But like gold, silver has also witnessed a surge in speculative long investment on the Comex futures exchange.

Physical trading was muted in Hong Kong, with silver bars offered at a discount of 10 to 20 U.S. cents to the spot London prices, barely changed from last week.

"Physical demand for gold will definitely slow down because of the high prices. Platinum is still expensive, so probably people would like to buy silver because it's cheaper," said a physical dealer in Hong Kong.

"But I still have doubts because most investors see silver as an industrial metal," he added.

MUMBAI (Reuters) -

India's HDFC Bank (HDBK.BO: Quote), a large gold seller, is looking at offering silver bars for sale in some cities because of interest from investors, a bank executive said on Wednesday. A sharper rise in silver prices than gold over the past one year has sparked demand for the metal and could make it an additional item on investment portfolios.

"Silver bars in select cities is an option we are considering," Seshan Ramakrishnan, head of the bank's retail liabilities product group, said in an emailed reply to questions.

"As an investment option, silver was never accorded enough importance. However, off late it has started catching investors' attention too," he said.

Silver XAG= has jumped more than half over the past 12 months to $17.3 an ounce, while gold XAU= has climbed 17.5% in the period to $1,041.8 an ounce.

"The possibility of playing on the volatility of silver is much higher. The rise in prices is also sometimes higher," said Nayan Pansare, an analyst who works for gold jewellery exporting companies.

Ramakrishnan said new products were on the anvil and the market should see some of this in the coming months.

HDFC Bank is one of India's top sellers of gold coins and bars for investment, a segment which accounts for about 30 percent of sales in the world's biggest gold market.

In 2008, India imported 501.6 tonnes of gold for making jewellery and 211 tonnes for investment, data from World Gold Council showed. (Reporting by Ruchira Singh; Editing by Ranjit Gangadharan)

© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved

The demise of the dollar ~ By Robert Fisk

The demise of the dollar
By Robert Fisk
In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning - along with China, Russia, Japan and France - to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place - although they have not discovered the details - are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil - yet again turning the region's conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. "One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations," he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China's extraordinary new financial power - along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America's power to interfere in the international financial system - which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states.

Brazil has shown interest in collaborating in non-dollar oil payments, along with India. Indeed, China appears to be the most enthusiastic of all the financial powers involved, not least because of its enormous trade with the Middle East.

China imports 60 per cent of its oil, much of it from the Middle East and Russia. The Chinese have oil production concessions in Iraq - blocked by the US until this year - and since 2008 have held an $8bn agreement with Iran to develop refining capacity and gas resources. China has oil deals in Sudan (where it has substituted for US interests) and has been negotiating for oil concessions with Libya, where all such contracts are joint ventures.

Furthermore, Chinese exports to the region now account for no fewer than 10 per cent of the imports of every country in the Middle East, including a huge range of products from cars to weapon systems, food, clothes, even dolls. In a clear sign of China's growing financial muscle, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension, loosen China's reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalance the world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.

Ever since the Bretton Woods agreements - the accords after the Second World War which bequeathed the architecture for the modern international financial system - America's trading partners have been left to cope with the impact of Washington's control and, in more recent years, the hegemony of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency.

The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say their discussions have gone too far to be blocked now. "The Russians will eventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies," a prominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. "The Brits are stuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have no choice because they won't be able to use the US dollar."

Chinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is too busy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinary implications of the transition from the dollar in nine years' time. The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.

The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh; the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have been worrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is that much of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.

"These plans will change the face of international financial transactions," one Chinese banker said. "America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate."

Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

Systemic Failure Approaches ~ Jim Willie

Debate stirs on whether the financial structure of the USEconomy is broken irreparably. Debate stirs on whether actions taken in the last year or two have put the nation on a path that can even achieve stability, let alone recovery. Debate stirs on whether a harmful syndicate has taken control of the USGovt financial ministries, let alone be removed. Debate stirs on whether lack of US Federal Reserve audits and disclosure of their accounting is integral to sustaining the syndicate control. Debate stirs whether the nationalizations have actually enabled adoption of wrecked assets and concealed executive ransacking. Debate stirs whether the mountainous federal deficits, the nationalizations of essentially Black Holes, and the endless war spending make deficit reduction a distant dream. Debate stirs on whether the gargantuan accumulation of USFed reserves will spill over to produce widespread price inflation. Debate stirs on why after causing the foundation failure of the US financial structure from Wall Street and the USFed offices, these institutions not only remain in power but demand greater power.

It is my contention that the US financial structures broke without any remote potential for repair and revival in the summer of 2007. The symptoms became obvious in the summer of 2008 to the slower observers with visible shock waves bathed in crisis. The reactions from shock waves have come since the autumn months of 2008. The system has broken, but the syndicate in control wishes to keep the music going, keep the machinery turning, keep the money flowing, so that they can continue the racket, bury the bond frauds, process the bad paper into USGovt coffers, continue to corner the printing press operations, and continue to con the USCongress into granting more funds. Nobody seeks justice and prosecution for over $1 trillion in mortgage bond fraud. Nobody seeks to remove key Wall Street firms from their command posts within USGovt finance ministries. Nobody seeks even to locate the missing $50 billion from the Iraq Reconstruction Fund. Foreigners have been very busy since the autumn 2008, as they dismantle the levers, knock down the pillars, block the escape routes, yank the collateral from the paper marketplaces, and otherwise thwart the US-UK structures.

To claim that the system can be put on proper stable footing is lunatic. To expect that the nation can be recalibrated so as to return to the Good Ole Days of US global dominance and leadership is lunatic. To urge that the economic signposts, megaphones, and billboards be once again guided by policies best described as Bubbly Economic Mythology is lunatic. Yet delusional Americans actually believe the dominant ship at sea can lead as flagship, when it has taken on more water than the Titanic. Since the autumn months of 2008, marred by the Lehman Brothers failure, marred by the Fannie Mae adoption, marred by the AIG adoption, punctuated by a shameful 0% interest rate policy (ZIRP) and a green light for limitless money creation (QE), the United States has lost any semblance of leadership. Instead, its leadership has earned scorn, criticism, and disrespect. The last people on the globe to comprehend the American condition of failure, corruption, and military aggression seem to be the Americans themselves, who live within the USDome of Perception. The US press networks do not cover the global Paradigm Shift underway that will change its landscape radically.

The clearest conclusions center on almost nothing put on a sustainable viable course for the nation. Amplification and widened breadth of all that failed cannot serve as the core for revival or recovery, let alone stability. Yet such policies seem the only ones our hapless bank leaders are able to execute. It is a dog returning to gobble his vomit. It is akin to managers urging their worst workers to intensify their efforts, and to join the ranks of management. These Keynesians cannot admit that the central bank franchise model has failed, not to be resurrected. In my view, the debates, the foundations, and the reactions scream two major messages. 1) The system is out of control, with the drivers ramming down the accelerator for even more of everything that failed, for a locomotive within a monetary system based upon illegitimate money. 2) The USGovt finances are heading toward a recognized failure, identified by both a banking system bankrupt seizure and a USTreasury default. The nation cannot come to grips with the bold stark notion that foreigners control our fate, from their revolt against the USDollar as a global reserve currency, from their revolt in supplying additional credit to the USGovt and USEconomy. The reaction so far to crisis has been to rely more heavily upon the Printing Pre$$, to monetize the debts, and to conceal such operations. Things are out of control!

In fact, my forecast is for systemic failure. Its primary elements will be a failed US banking system (as in seizure) and a USTreasury Bond default (as in coerced restructure). Again, martial law and declaration of economic emergency will be the final solution. Two years ago, my analysis regularly mentioned martial law and imposed order to handle the chaos from a disintegrated economy and insolvent dysfunctional banking system. Here we are in the present, when such forecasts do not sound so outrageous anymore. The Jackass has featured a string of seemingly outrageous forecasts that have come true. The US system is credit dependent, and credit will soon be cut off, in the next chapter of isolation. The Printing Pre$$ is a temporary solution, en route to a failed state. The US leaders and citizens do not learn from history. They defy history amidst delusions of omnipotent power. See the Weimar Republic, which has gone global! Even the World Bank led by yet another Goldman Sachs pupil warns the Untied States not to assume the USDollar will remain the unchallenged global reserve currency.

GOLD IS RESILIENT

The true sanctuary is gold, in the face of debauchery of paper money. We see some clear first hand evidence of the ‘Beijing Put’ at work. It could provide a banking system foundation, except that the Gold Cartel and Banker Elite would have to forfeit power, maybe face poverty. Notice the quick recovery. With a slightly lower gold price, the off-take delivery of physical gold has been magnificent, much greater than a week or two ago. The Wall Street banksters are shocked to learn that demand is not isolated, but rather comes from diverse global sources. The Powerz threw all they could at gold, mentioned some half-baked story about I.M.F. gold sales (more like closure to decade old short sales), and upped the ante of controversail gold futures contract sales. Notice the moving averages all aligned and rising. Notice the stochastix cyclical index that come down quickly to the 20 low trigger, ready to rise on a quick reload. The response breakout was very typical, seen a million times before. The breakout loses the amateurs and fast traders who miss the big picture. Like a diver off a springboard, the dive commences for a lift upward. The pullback was really miniscule. The recovery was rapid and impressive, in symmetry with the suddenness of the controlled correction. The Chinese are obviously thanking the US gold merchants who offer the Middle Kingdom yet more gold bullion at reasonable prices. The Chinese want to maximize their accumulation of gold from the PaperBoyz, at the best price. They do not want a catapult upward in the gold price. They want a gradual controlled price. Expect continued accommodation.

Continue here

"In 2010, price will benefit from the huge export decrease of Chinese primary silver.'

NEW YORK--(Business Wire)--
Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its
catalogue.

Research Report on Chinese Silver Industry, 2009-2010

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0151235/Research-Report-on-Chinese-Silver-Industry-2009-2010.html

In 2008, output of Chinese silver ranked the first all over the world with 9,587
tons, increasing by 5.45% YOY. The growth rate decreased compared with over 20%
in previous five years. Meanwhile, there is no change in distribution of
domestic silver. Most are spin-offs from copper, lead or zinc. Others are from
regeneration or independent silver ores.

In 2008, main provinces for silver production were Hunan, Henan, Yunnan and
Jiangxi. Enterprises ranking top four in output were Yuguang Gold and Lead
Group, Yunnan Copper, Xinda Silver Industry, Chenzhou City Jingui Silver
Industry.

In 2008, export quota of silver was 4,800 tons. On August 1st, 2008, the 5%
export rebate was eliminated. Affected by rebate elimination and price decrease,
export volume was 4,043 tons, 441 tons less than in 2007.

Silver powder import increased to 1,511 tons in 2008, rising by 54.34% YOY.
Import of silver concentrate reached 70,100 tons, declining by 62.84% YOY.

In 2008, there was no great change in Chinese sliver consumption structure
compared with 2007. The consumption reached 4,500 tons. The growth rate of
consumption exceeded 10% for years.

Silver price trend depends on two factors: investment/speculation demand of
silver as a product and demand & supply of silver. Investment demand is closely
related to global financial liquidity (inflation level) and USD trend. It is
predicted that the global investment demand is low in 2009. As to demand &
supply of silver, it is estimated that supply exceeds demand in 2009; in 2010,
price will benefit from the huge export decrease of Chinese primary silver.

In 2007, 51% of silver demand was from industrial fields, including electricity,
electronics, silver based solder, etc. Benefitted from global economy booming,
silver demand from industrial fields was in stable increase in the past six
years. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 5.2%. It is estimated that demand
from industrial fields will decline by 3%-5% affected by global financial crisis
in 2009. In 2007, consumption demand (photography, jewelry, silverwares, silver
coins and medals) took up 43% of the aggregate demand. Due to the decreasing
demand from photography, declining tendency of total silver consumption demand
could not be got rid off in a short period.

70% of silver is the spin-off of copper, lead, zinc and gold. From 2005 to 2007,
substantial price increase of these metals resulted in the release of huge mine
productivity in 2009-2010. It is believed that as long as prices of these metals
are higher than production costs, silver supply will be in stable increase with
the increasing outputs of copper, lead and zinc( though prices of these metals
have declined since 2008).

It is predicted that global industrial demand for silver will rise in the second
half of 2009 though demand of the whole year may be lower than in 2008. Output
of associated minerals of silver is reduced while new applications of silver are
emerging. In the long run, the prospect of silver is optimistic. Rapid
development of Chinese economy pushes silver consumption. Chinese silver
manufacture will enter increasing period. Silver output is estimated a stable
increase in 2009 but growth rate will decline. Chinese silver industry is
heading to large scale, brand and internationalization. International
cooperation opportunities are increased. There is great potential in Chinese
silver consumption market. Consumption growth rate will be higher than output
growth rate in the future.

Investment in further processing of silver will be hot in China. Major
investment objects are E-silver paste, nanometer silver powder, nanometer silver
antimicrobial material, high-performance silver based alloy and electric shock,
etc.

CAUTION: Crash/Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente ~ A Bit bearish here...

After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants’ caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, advised his subscribers and followers to take positions in US tech stocks, the banking sector and hard assets at the bottom of the markets in early March of 2006. However, he did provide a word of caution on March 16, 2009, making it known that while he was a short-term bull on stocks, that eventually, the economic fundamentals would catch up:

“probably a total collapse in the second half of the year when it becomes clear that the economy is a total disaster.”

As recently as September 3rd, on Delhi TV, he made another call, essentially telling investors to get out:

“I believe in the next 10 days to two weeks we’ll get big moves in markets. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dollar would for a change strengthen and equity markets would correct and possibly quite meaningfully so.”

Gerald Celente, Trends Research forecaster and contrarian thinker, advised listeners of the Jeff Rense show on September 23rd to look out below, calling it the Christmas Crash. He believes that the next collapse will come quickly, sometime this Fall, but as late as January or February of 2010:

“It’s going to really be an ugly scene. We are really encouraging people now to take pro-active measures and prepare for the worst. Don’t spend an extra dime.”

Jim Rogers, who is well known for making millions during the recession and commodities boom of the 1970’s, is also hesitant about acquiring more equities. He is an avid US Dollar bear, but in an interview on September 30th, he turned bullish on the dollar in the short term. His advice?

“I am not buying shares anywhere in the world as we speak.”

Finally, we have economist and cyclical analyst Harry Dent Jr., who some may know for having called the real estate Bubble-Boom, and subsequent crash, years before it happened in his book The Next Great Bubble Boom. Dent was also bullish on the Dow, calling for it to reach between 9450 and 10,500 after the March lows of 2009. Like Faber, Dent also cautioned investors to stay vigilant once the 9000 mark was breached. In a recent Economic Forecast Alert to subscribers, Dent indicated that the tide was changing:

“The markets are very overstretched here and we think it is very likely that we are seeing a top just above 9,800 on the Dow today.

This is the best intermediate term play we have seen in a long time. Shorting the stock market (for example, ETF symbol SH) could yield 50% to 60%+ gains over the next year with a 5% to 15% downside if the markets keep edging up for awhile, even to extremes.”

Though we continue to see most mainstream analysts talk the bull market talk, it looks as if the bull may be in trouble, especially if individual investors realize what all of the big boys talking their books already know - that the economic fundamentals are simply horrific and the markets are already pricing in GDP growth of over 5% for the next 4 quarters. Considering that GDP grew at 0.7% in the 2nd quarter, that seems highly unlikely. Some estimates also suggest the the P/E of the S&P 500 right now is at unprecedented levels of over 100!

As of today, it looks as if investor focus is shifting from stocks and commodities into what some consider to be short-term safehaven assets, such as US Treasury Bills/Notes/Bonds. The yield on the 10 yr is at 3.15% as of October 2nd, significantly down since August 7th’s 3.85%, suggesting that safety, not risk, is now the name of the game. Interestingly, and unlike November of 2008, gold seems to be holding strong at around $1000, though this may change if the US Dollar rises, as Jim Rogers, Faber and Dent have suggested it may.

For those still in equities, we believe Tyler Durdern at Zero Hedge said it best, “Go long here at your peril.”

Interesting comments

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Finance ~ Satyajit Das,

About one year ago, AIG was brought to the brink of bankruptcy as a result its exposure under credit default swaps (“CDS”) (a form of credit insurance). Asset backed securities and Collateralised Debt Obligations (“CDOs”), which lived up to its cheery nickname Chernobyl Death Obligation, brought the financial system to the edge of collapse.

Volatile equity and currency markets caused problems with exotic option “accumulators” (known to traders as “I-will-kill-you-later”). Numerous investors and corporations are bunkered down with their lawyers hoping to litigate their way out of significant losses on “hedges” pleading familiar defenses – “I did not understand the risks” or “I was misled about the risks by the bank”.

If you assumed that these events meant that wild beast of derivatives would be tamed, then you would be wrong. History tells us that there will be cosmetic changes to the functioning of the market but business as usual will resume in the not too distant future. Problems with derivative problems of portfolio insurance in 1987 and Long Term Capital Management (“LTCM”) in 1998 did not lead to fundamental changes in the operation of derivatives markets.

Tried and faied initiatives (based on particular religious convictions) will be prompted including improving disclosure, increasing capital and implementing a new centralised counterparty (“CCP”) to attemnpt to reduce the risk of a major dealer failing. Fundamental issues - the use for derivative for speculation, mis-selling of instruments to less sophisticated market participants, complexity, valuation problems - will not be substantively addressed.

The industry and its key lobby group (ISDA – International Swaps & Derivatives Association) are well practiced in the art of regulatory skullduggery.

Derivatives, it will be argued, are 'soooo' complicated that only derivative traders themselves can properly “regulate” them. If this fails then there will be more subtle rhetorical thrusts.

The new CCP is only for “standardised” derivatives. Already, there are impassioned semantic debates about what is meant by “standard derivatives” and whether they can actually be cleared through the CCP.

On 17 September 2009, Robert Pickel, ISDA’s CEO, argued before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee: “Not all standardized contracts can be cleared.” He argued that that even if they have standardized economic terms many derivatives contracts will be “difficult if not impossible to clear” because the CCP depends on such factors as liquidity, trading volume and daily pricing. This would, Pickel argued, make “it difficult for a clearinghouse to calculate collateral requirements consistent with prudent risk management.”

Dan Budofsky, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, who testified on behalf of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, agreed that “it may be more appropriate for products that trade less frequently to trade over-the-counter.”

The industry will argue for self-regulation, which bears the same relationship to regulation that self importance does to importance.

The reasons for policy inaction are complex. As undoubtedly numerous professors from well-known universities will testify, derivatives do perform important risk transfer functions within modern capital markets – the Dr.Jekyll side of derivatives. ISDA’s Pickel laid out this argument with eloquent panache arguing against standardisation and the CCP as it “would undercut their very purpose: the ability to tailor custom risk-management solutions to meet the needs of end-users.”

Derivatives by their inherent nature are also have a Mr.Hyde side. The ability to use derivatives to speculate, create off-balance sheet positions, increase leverage, arbitrage regulatory and tax rules and manufacture exotic risk cocktails will continue to be a major factor in derivative activity.

The reality is that hedging and risk management is secondary to the other uses. For companies, the ability to use derivative trading to supplement traditional earnings, which are under increased pressure, is irresistible. For institutional and retail investors, the use of derivatives to improve returns through leverage and access to different risks is now a vital part of the investment process.

For banks, the Dr.Jekyll of derivative trading is the revenues that can be generated. The Dr. Hyde is the risks in derivative trading that are generally deferred into a Panglossian future “neverland” using complex models, based on arcane mathematics and confidence that only ignorance can support.

The complexity of modern derivatives has little to do with risk transfer and everything to do with profits. As new products are immediately copied by competitors, traders must “innovate” to maintain revenue by increasing volumes or creating new structures. Complexity delays competition, prevents clients from unbundling products and generally reduces transparency. Frequently, the models used to price, hedge and determine the profitability also manage to confuse managers and controllers within banks themselves allowing traders to book large fictitious “profits” that their bonuses are based on.

The sheer importance and size of derivative profits means that it will continue to attract the best and the brightest who will continue to play these time honoured games.

Warren Buffet once described bankers in the following terms: “Wall Street never voluntarily abandons a highly profitable field. Years ago… a fellow down on Wall Street…was talking about the evils of drugs…he ranted on for 15 or 20 minutes to a small crowd…then…he said: “Do you have any questions?” One bright investment banking type said to him: “yeah, who makes the needles?

Derivatives and debt are the needles of finance and bankers will continue to supply them to all the Dr. Jekyll’s and Mr. Hyde’s alike for the foreseeable future as long as there is a buck to be made in the trade.

© 2009 Satyajit Das All Rights reserved.

Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives (2006, FT-Prentice Hall).

http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/

Still The Masters of the Universe ~ Satyajit Das

Tom Wolfe writing in Bonfire of the Vanities created the term – ‘Masters of the Universe’: “He considered himself part of the new era and the new breed, a Wall Street egalitarian, a Master of the Universe, who was only a respecter of performance.” Wall Street bond trader Sherman McCoy, the original Master of the Universe, came to personify the avariciousness and self-aggrandisement of financiers.

Human history is a sequence of “ations” – civilisation, industrialisation, urbanisation, globalisation interspersed with actual or threatened “annihilation”. The most recent “ation” is “financialisation” - the conversion of everything into monetary form (also known as another “ation” – “monetisation”).

New paper economies emerged directly from the demise of the gold standard that removed restrictions on the ability to create money, especially debt. Finance inexorably displaced industry with trading and speculation becoming major activities as financial engineering replaced real engineering. In an earlier age, Heinrich Heine, the German poet, too had identified the change: “Money is the God of our time….” The rise of financiers is intimately linked to this financialisation of the global economy.

Financial innovations such as securitisation (the packaging up and sale of loans) and derivatives (effectively risk insurance) enabled banks to extend more credit. Banks could literally by increasing throughput, making more loans and selling them off to eager investors, magically increase returns to their investors. Bankers had invented a ‘money machine’.

Bank also began to trade more actively with their shareholders money, following the advice of Fear of Flying author Erica Jong: “If you don’t risk anything then you risk even more”.

All of this, of course, meant increased earnings for the bank and its star performers. As people who work in financial institutions know, it is primarily an enterprise that is run for the employees with an afterthought for shareholders.

Sherman McCoy could with a single phone call make $50,000 and, even better, a share of that was his and his alone. At the height of the boom, top hedge fund and private managers could make more in 10 minutes than the average worker earned in an entire year. In 2007, James Simons of Renaissance Technologies earned $1.5 billion and David Rubinstein of The Carlyle Group earned $260 million in the ethereal “economic stratosphere.” In Australia, Macquarie Bank employees rejoiced in the sobriquet – the ‘Millionaires factory”.

The ability to earn high rewards only becomes a problem where the promise of a share of profits encourages excessive risk taking and a focus on short-term earnings. It also becomes a problem where the basic measure of performance is ambiguous and can be systematically manipulated. Unfortunately, ‘earnings’ proved to be the result of wildly inaccurate models, accounting tricks and risks that had not been accurately captured.

Finance is also problematic when it comes to dominate the economy. In the U.S.A., financial services’ share of total corporate profits increased from 10% in the early 1980s to 40% in 2007. The combined stock market value of these firms grew from 6% to 23% over the same period.

It is now conventional wisdom to accept the central role of financial services. Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer under Tony Blair and then Prime Minister, harboured secret dreams of a Scandinavian-style social welfare state with low taxes funded by the growth of the City. In 2007, he told bankers: “What you have achieved for the financial services we … now aspire to achieve for the whole of the British economy.” Alistair Darling, Gordon Brown successor as Chancellor, was no less loquacious describing financial services as “absolutely critical” to the economy.

The golden age seemed to come to an end with the GFC. Initially, the world viewed the destruction of storied financial institutions in Global Financial Crisis as an entertaining blood sport.

Some bankers lost their jobs by the thousands. Others lived with the psychological fear of firing by text message.

In New York, bankers confessed it was hard to live on less than $500,000 – after all, the children’s private school fees, the maid, the Pilates lessons etc all cost money. They economised by buying cheaper cuts of meat. In London, families deferred moves to more expensive suburbs. The latest Gordon Ramsay restaurant was no longer a must have.

The effects of belt-tightening were seen in a fall in bookings at luxury hotels, holiday resorts and sales of super yachts – some of the plutocrats were down to their last billion. Once rich hedge fund managers were back in court trying to renegotiate the terms of their divorce pleading ‘poverty’.

For some women, the aphrodisiac quality of a young unattached male purring “I’m an investment banker” in a certain type of bar lost its allure. Some professions – personal trainers, dog walkers, personal dressers, children's party organisers – were in danger of extinction.

There was a sense of Schadenfreude as the Masters of the Universe received their comeuppance. Unfortunately, the “financial” crisis quickly spread to the “real” economy – jobs, consumption, and investment- becoming everybody’s problem. “Too large to fail” financial institutions had to be bailed out by governments, that is the ordinary taxpayer. In a perverse piece of income redistribution, the less fortunate now were subsidising the masters of universe because it was in their best interest.

Commentators briefly dared hope that the power and influences of finance and financiers would be reduced. Finance would revert to being a facilitator rather than the central driver of the economy.

The Economist wrote: “Over the past 35 years it has seemed as if everyone in finance has wanted to be someone else. Hedge funds and private equity wanted to be as cool as a dot.com. Goldman Sachs wanted to be as smart as a hedge fund. The other investment banks wanted to be as profitable as Goldman Sachs. America's retail banks wanted to be as cutting-edge as investment banks. And European banks wanted to be as aggressive as American banks. They all ended up wishing they could be back precisely where they started.”

Unfortunately, those hopes are misplaced. Low or zero interest rates, heavily managed markets, reduced competition and state underwriting of solvency has helped surviving banks prosper.

Bank risk levels have increased to and in some cases beyond pre-crisis levels. The higher levels of risk taking reflect increasing comfort in central bank support of financial institution’s liquidity and their ability and willingness to intervene to limit price risks.

In 2008 in Canary Wharf, the financial district in London’s docklands, I meet two affable recruiters from the English Teachers Union who explained that there was “a bit of financial crisis”. Well-educated and highly motivated bankers who were losing their jobs by the thousands might like to consider a new career teaching. I questioned the adjustment in salaries that the change in careers would necessitate. One recruiter’s responded: “If you haven’t got a job then it’s not relevant is it? It was never real money and it wasn’t going to ever last was it?”

Over the last 30 years, talent has increasingly been lured from productive profession into finance and the speculative economy. The rewards available mean that the brain drain into these professions is unlikely to stop. The excesses of the financial economy are also unlikely to be easily tamed.

The Masters of the Universe that survived the carnage are back to their old tricks. The ‘fight for talent’ means that bonuses and remuneration guarantees for new employees are all back in vogue.

Government attempts to deal with the problems of the financial system, especially in the U.S.A., Great Britain and other countries, illustrate Mancur Olson’s thesis - small distributional coalitions tend to form over time in developed nations and influence policies in their favor through intensive, well funded lobbying. The resulting policies benefit the coalitions and its members but large costs borne by the rest of population.

The “finance government complex” (dubbed “Government Sachs” by its critics) and financiers have proved exquisite masters of the game of privatisation of profits and socialisation of losses. Many countries now practice Chinese socialism with Western characteristics.

A year after the collapse of Lehman, the near collapse of AIG and the grande mal seizure in financial markets, the Masters of the Universe are still firmly in charge. As Giuseppe di Lampedusa, author of The Leopard knew: “everything must change so that everything can stay the same.”

© 2009 Satyajit Das All Rights reserved.

Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives (2006, FT-Prentice Hall).

http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/

Plenty More Bank Losses Expected Globally Additional $1.5 Trillion in Write-Downs Forecast by End of 2010 Despite Rising Securities Prices

Hat tip to C H Powell, who added....here you go, Kevin; everything I've been braying about for the last eight months:we're about 45% done (writedowns)....

ISTANBUL -- Rising global securities prices reduced the International Monetary Fund's estimate of bank losses, but banks around the world -- especially in Europe -- still are likely to face additional write-downs of $1.5 trillion by the end of next year, the IMF said.

Overall, the IMF calculates that the global financial crisis will produce $3.4 trillion in losses for financial institutions, between 2007 and 2010, a chunk of which already has been recognized. That estimate is $600 billion less than the IMF forecast in April, largely reflecting an increase in the prices of securities held by financial institutions since then.

AFP/Getty Images


The IMF projected total losses in the banking sector specifically will reach $2.8 trillion. That is the same as in April, but the figures aren't directly comparable because the IMF reworked its methodology, in part to track potential losses in European banks. Of that amount, the IMF said, banks globally have written down $1.3 trillion and have additional potential losses of $1.5 trillion facing them.

As in past estimates, the IMF said that banks in the U.S. are further ahead in dealing with potential losses than those in Europe. Banks in the U.S. have recognized about 60% of anticipated write-downs, the IMF calculated. Banks in the Britain and continental Europe have recognized only about 40% of their potential losses.

The IMF said that U.S. banks' portfolios rely more on securities, and thus have benefited from the recent gains in stock markets. Banks in Europe, however, are more dependent on loans to Eastern Europe and other beleaguered markets, whose economies remain vulnerable.

"Financial markets have rebounded, emerging-market risks have eased, banks have raised capital and wholesale funding markets have reopened," the IMF said. "Even so, credit channels are still impaired and the economic recovery is likely to be slow."
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The IMF urged governments to continue pressing financial institutions to dispose of toxic assets and build capital cushions.

The fund estimated that bank losses in the U.S. and Europe over the coming year or so were likely to outpace the banks' retained earnings over that time, reducing their equity. By several measures of capital, banks in the U.S. and the U.K. were in better shape than their counterparts in continental Europe, the IMF found.

Private-sector demand for credit is likely to remain "anemic," the IMF said. But vastly increased public borrowing could put upward pressure on interest rates and undermine what is likely to be a tepid recovery.

Historical evidence suggests that a 1 percentage point increase in the fiscal deficit, if long lasting, helps produce an increase in long-term interest rates of between 0.1 and 0.6 percentage point. Picking the middle of that range, the IMF said increase in the budget deficits by sums equal to between 5 and 6 percentage points of gross domestic product -- well within the range of possibility in the U.S. and Europe -- could boost long-term interest rates by 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points. That, the IMF warned, would have "very adverse growth consequences."

The IMF urged global governments to start planning to reduce the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been used to fight the global recession, though it didn't urge that such a withdrawal begin yet.

The fund also counseled nations to adopt policies to reduce the threats posed by financial institutions deemed "too big to fail" -- meaning the government needs to bail them out or face a systemic meltdown. Among the possible policies the IMF suggested: requiring such institutions to carry additional capital and liquidity requirements to encourage them to reduce their size and complexity. Risk-based charges to "prefinance a bailout fund" are another possibility, the IMF said.

Write to Bob Davis at bob.davis@wsj.com

Peak Gold? Sure, why not!

I'm got a lot of time for Byron. He doesn't let his respect for what made the United States great and its resilience and capacity for recovery get in the way of good calls. I would got so far as to consider his newsletters if I was US based.

A highly regarded resource sector expert who discusses his field fervently whenever possible and whose writings include the top-ranking Outstanding Investments, Byron King brings his views direct to The Gold Report audience in this exclusive interview. Unconvinced that the recession is behind us, he is equally sure that the "bottomless pit" mentality of stimulus spending will wreck the dollar. Those are among the reasons he sees $2,000-per-ounce gold on the not-too-distant horizon.

The Gold Report: We've seen quite a rebound in the markets since we spoke in May, and governments across the world have begun releasing some positive economic news. Are we out of the recession as Bernanke has told us?

Byron King: I don't agree with that all. It's like at the funeral home where they put really good makeup on the corpse and people walk in and say, "Oh, he looks so good." Then you think to yourself, "Wait a minute. If he looks so good, why is he dead?" That's where we are now, I think, with our economy. We're still in the recession, it has been well-masked.

Let me digress and say that yes, the stock market rebounded. The "sell in May, go away" thing didn't work this year. So if you stayed in the market, you probably benefited very well from the market recovery. But it was a recovery not rooted in fundamentals. Part of it is that we've had a banking recovery, too. But that was because of massive infusions of new liquidity out of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department into the financial sector. That's not the prescription for long-term health.

As with someone really sick in the hospital, the problem isn't putting him on life support; the problem is getting him off the respirator. Now the question is how to stop hemorrhaging public money into the system, and in fact, begin pulling some of it back out.

TGR: Let's assume for now that the government isn't prone to taking the patient off the respirator. Do you expect diminishing returns in terms of less recovery seen for every dollar the government puts into the system?

BK: That's a great point. We're there, at the point of diminishing returns in terms of what it takes to get another dollar of real GDP. It doesn't matter how much green ink they use down at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing or how many ones and zeros they create in the Federal Reserve. At the end of the day, how much have we improved? How much have we built our economy? Look at numbers like new business formations, numbers that indicate the health of growing businesses—hiring, recalls, overtime—certain types of gross output figures, job creation. You're not seeing healthy numbers for those things in the economy.

TGR: And unemployment.

BK: Absolutely. Unemployment may be a lagging indicator, but it's lagging like an anchor chain on your boat, especially when the numbers get up in the 9% and 10% range nationally. And then look at certain critical states. California, Michigan, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania are all big, populous, busy states with lots going on and high unemployment rates. Where do you go with your economy when you've got that level of unemployment?

And what we're seeing is the nice numbers. There's a lot of ugliness behind them. If you look at the shadow statistics, you may as well add 50% or 75%. You know, 10% unemployment could really be 15% or 17% if you looked at who's really not working. Look at numbers of people applying for early Social Security or disability. They're up 45% and more this year. These are people at the bow wave of the Baby Boom, exiting the workforce, and entering a life of government dependency.

TGR: In a consumer-based economy, can you really have a jobless recovery?

BK: No, I don't think you can. And that's one of our problems. The consumer consumption component of GDP is something like 70% as opposed to what it was historically. In, say, the 1950s, the economy was maybe 55% consumption versus a 45% level of production. At today's 70%-to-30% ratio of consumption, with high unemployment and income insecurity, you can't get economic traction.

A report that just came out within last couple of weeks indicates that something like 70% of households are living paycheck to paycheck. And something like 35% or 40% of households that make more than $100,000 a year are living paycheck to paycheck. Think about that. Almost half of the top income demographic is one paycheck away from being broke. Suppose you get laid off, you get sick, you get injured, some problem comes up, a death in the family, a divorce, or some other big hit comes along. If you don't get paid for a pay period, all of a sudden you're behind on your bills. You burn through your savings, if you have any savings. You miss two pay periods, you're really behind. Three pay periods, there goes the house, there goes the car.

TGR: It's somewhat ironic, but we do hear that people are saving more.

BK: We are seeing big numbers in terms of the savings. The national savings rate has gone from negative to something like 7% since the start of 2009. That's an excellent savings number in the long term. That's a good number for the individuals who are doing the savings, good for them. But in a macro-sense, it's a very asymmetrical type of savings. People at the very high end have cut back on discretionary spending. They're not buying the new Cadillac, they didn't take the fancy vacation, they didn't buy that second house. I think those cuts are what's driving that savings rate up, and they take big consumption dollars out of the economy.

It's not the secretaries, the paralegals, medical assistants or cashiers at the shopping malls. Those folks aren't saving more money than before, not in any gross aggregate kind of way that would move the economy.

TGR: Early on, you said the government's doing a great job of masking the recession. What happens when people see what's been so well-disguised? What will be the impact on the markets?

BK: I think we are living with a very vulnerable stock market. If large numbers of people were to come to the same opinion that I hold, a lot of them would probably want to take sell out. Would it be a meltdown like last year's? I don't think we'd see an overnight crash, but I do think the market would drift down as people take money off the table. I think it'll vary by sector, though, because some sectors are doing well for the right reasons while other sectors are doing well for the wrong reasons.

TGR: For instance?

BK: Sectors depending on the discretionary income I was talking about—high-end home building, entertainment, travel and leisure—those kinds of things have had what I'd call a false recovery. It's a recovery based on antibiotics and steroids. On the other hand, the energy sector and certain parts of the mining sector have done well because there's been an underlying strengthening of demand for the product and a realization that while the dollars in your bank account or your wallet may not hold their value over time, that oil or ore in the ground will protect value. It will hold value over time.

TGR: That's a pretty smooth segue into gold. Can you give us an overview of what's in your Gold $2,000 report and your thoughts about of the sector now that gold's passed that $1,000 trading barrier?

BK: I wrote that report when gold was at about $850, so we're moving in the right direction. I think that gold could be $2,000 an ounce, and I'm not alone. Rob McEwen, for instance, is making predictions of $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce within about three years.

I think we're looking at the long-term loss of value in the dollar, what with the tremendous levels of government expenditure—this so-called stimulus. It's the bottomless pit mentality that Congress has toward the money that the federal government spends. It's wrecking the dollar. All around the world people are looking for alternatives.

In China, 15 years ago it was illegal for the average citizen to own gold except maybe for a little gold chain. Today, the Chinese government encourages its people to buy gold. Almost every bank or post office in China now sells gold coins.

If the Central Bank of China ever says, "We're buying gold. We're going to buy as much as we can and put it in the state coffers," the world gold price would spike through the roof. But if the Chinese government tells a billion of its people, "Okay, take a little bit from your paycheck every week or every month, save it up and then every now and then, go down to the bank or the post office and buy a gold coin," all of a sudden they've got a stealth rally going. China will build up its gold reserves, but do it in a distributed way. They're not putting all that accumulating gold in a Chinese version of Fort Knox. They're putting it in safe deposit boxes all across the country. Look around the world and you see people accumulating gold. I think that what we see in China is a harbinger of things to come.

TGR: Are they accumulating gold as a hedge against the U.S. dollar, or as a hedge against their own economy? What's in it for the Chinese government to make that recommendation to the citizens?

BK: It's a way of getting a lot of gold inside the boundaries of China. I'd say that the government wants its citizens to do the buying so as to keep something of a lid on gold prices. They're reinventing the U.S. monetary economy of 100 years ago. The United States used to be a gold standard country. We had a lot of gold and gold was in the hands of the people. And then in 1933 Franklin D. Roosevelt issued a presidential directive essentially confiscating all privately held.

TGR: Might the Chinese government do something like that?

BK: They could if they wanted to, but I think part of it is somewhat like the concept of a "fleet in being"—it's not that you deploy a lot of battleships at once, but if you add individual ships together, you have a rather formidable military force. I would liken the Chinese approach to "Fort Knox in being." They have a Fort Knox in China except that it's not all in one place. It's scattered around in millions and millions of households. If the Chinese government ever needed all that gold in one place for some reason, they would cross that bridge once they got to it.

TGR So if we're looking at this multi-year, dispersed approach to accumulating gold while keeping a lid of gold prices, why would gold go to $2,000?

BK: Because we're in a world that appears to have encountered peak gold as well as peak oil. If you look at historical production, worldwide gold output reached a top right around the year 2000–2001. Overall output has declined and we're not replacing output from the big mines of the past. Despite discoveries here and there, miners have to dig deeper and deeper into the reserves. In a big mining country such as South Africa, for example, some of the deepest mines now are at 4,000 meters. That's 13,000 feet.

TGR: So your view is that scarcity rather than a weakening U.S. dollar will drive the increase in the gold price?

BK: Well, it's really both. More and more dollars are chasing less and less gold. You're piling the monetary inflation coming out of Washington, D.C. on top of the dwindling production coming out of the mines of the whole world. Beyond that, a lot of what kept gold prices down and the dollar strong for years was the impression that the United States had its act together and would pull through over the long term, despite all of its various flaws and faults. In the eyes of the world, we've somehow managed to blow off a lot of that impression and I don't know what it will take to recover it. It took winning World War II the last time.

TGR: How would you characterize prospects for silver?

BK: I think that silver has more opportunities to appreciate percentage wise than gold. If gold goes from $1,000 to $1,500, that's a 50% gain. If silver's at $15 and goes to $30, there's a 100% gain. Silver is a monetary metal, but it also has more industrial-type uses than gold. We're seeing more and more silver go into the electronics industry, even into biotech. With uses at both the monetary end and the industrial end, there are a lot of good opportunities in silver.

TGR: Since their March lows, stocks in some senior and junior mining stocks—both silver and gold—have doubled or even tripled, while the metals themselves have not climbed nearly so steeply. Does the rapid appreciation in these mining company shares leave any investment opportunity remaining for the equities?

BK: I think you have to be very careful. You have to pick and choose where you're going to go with small companies, medium companies, large companies. A lot of gold and silver, for example, are produced as byproducts of copper mining. If you want to see some of the biggest silver producers in the world, you're also looking at some of the big copper producers.

TGR: Thank you, Byron. We appreciate your good humor as well as your good advice.

A self-described "old rock hound," Byron King earned his bachelor's degree in geology (with honors) at Harvard, and then worked as a geologist in the exploration and production division of a major oil company. He "earned his wings" in the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Naval Reserve, logging more than 1,000 hours of flight time in tactical jet aircraft and recording 128 aircraft carrier landings. Based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania—site of the historic G20 Summit last week— Byron practiced law there after earning his Juris Doctor credentials at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law. A prolific author and popular speaker with a gift for wrapping historical context around his observations, Byron contributes to Agora Financial's Daily Reckoning, Whiskey and Gunpowder and Penny Sleuth. He also edits Energy and Scarcity Investor and Outstanding Investments newsletters.